2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 5, 2024. Democratic incumbent Senator Elizabeth Warren successfully ran for a third term, securing 59.81% of the vote.[1] Warren was challenged by Republican attorney John Deaton. Primary elections took place on September 3, 2024.[2]
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November 5, 2024
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Warren: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Deaton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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This election marked the first time that Elizabeth Warren had lost Bristol County while running for the office. Warren underperformed Kamala Harris by 6 points in the concurrent presidential election, making her the second-worst Democratic Senate performer in the 2024 cycle after Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland.
Warren received 84,850 (1.4 percent) votes fewer than Harris. John Deaton ran as an anti-Trump centrist Republican.[3][4]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Elizabeth Warren, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)[5]
Declined
- Jake Auchincloss, U.S. representative for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district (2021–present)[6] (ran for re-election)[7]
- Seth Moulton, U.S. representative for Massachusetts's 6th congressional district (2015–present)[7] (ran for re-election)[7]
- Ayanna Pressley, U.S. representative for Massachusetts's 7th congressional district (2019–present)[8] (endorsed Warren, ran for re-election)[9][7]
- Michelle Wu, mayor of Boston (2021–present)[8] (endorsed Warren)[9]
Endorsements
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
- Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)[10]
- Ayanna Pressley, MA-07 (2019–present)[9]
State officials
- Maura Healey, Governor of Massachusetts (2023–present)[11]
Local officials
- Michelle Wu, mayor of Boston (2021–present)[9]
Organizations
- EMILY's List[12]
- Feminist Majority PAC[13]
- Giffords[10]
- Harvard College Democrats[14]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[15]
- J Street PAC[16]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[17]
- League of Conservation Voters[18]
- National Women's Political Caucus[19]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[20]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[21]
- Population Connection Action Fund[22]
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee[23]
Labor unions
Political parties
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Elizabeth Warren (D) | $18,486,081 | $24,658,143 | $4,920,625 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[27] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) | 562,709 | 98.58% | |
| Write-in | 8,078 | 1.42% | ||
| Total votes | 570,787 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John Deaton, attorney[29]
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- Charlie Baker, former Governor of Massachusetts from 2015 to 2023[citation needed]
- Chris Doughty, manufacturing executive and candidate for governor in 2022[33]
Endorsements
Ian Cain
Governors
- Jane Swift, former Governor of Massachusetts (2001–2003)[34]
Local Officials
- Thomas Koch, Mayor of Quincy (2008–present)[35]
John Deaton
Executive Branch officials
- Anthony Scaramucci, former White House Director of Communications (2017)[36]
Statewide officials
- Karyn Polito, former Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts (2015–2023)[36]
Individuals
- Mark Cuban, entrepreneur (Independent)[37]
Organizations
- Massachusetts College Republicans[38]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Robert Antonellis (R) | $43,352[a] | $37,250 | $9,667 |
| Ian Cain (R) | $361,115 | $312,722 | $48,393 |
| John Deaton (R) | $1,690,411[b] | $715,642 | $974,769 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[27] | |||
Polling
Results
Deaton—90–100%
Deaton—80–90%
Deaton—70–80%
Deaton—60–70%
Deaton—50–60%
Antonellis—50–60%
Antonellis—40–50%
Cain—40–50%
No Data/Vote
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Deaton | 136,773 | 64.51% | |
| Republican | Robert Antonellis | 54,940 | 25.91% | |
| Republican | Ian Cain | 19,374 | 9.14% | |
| Write-in | 924 | 0.44% | ||
| Total votes | 212,011 | 100.0% | ||
Workers Party primary
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Withdrew
- Louis Marino, former Chelmsford town meeting representative[43]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[44] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[45] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[47] | Safe D | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[48] | Safe D | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[49] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics[50] | Solid D | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[51] | Safe D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[52] | Solid D | October 23, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
John Deaton (R)
Statewide officials
- Bill Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts (1991–1997)[53]
Notable Individuals
- Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX[54]
- Mark Cuban, entrepreneur, Dallas Mavericks owner, philanthropist (Independent)[37][55][56]
- Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple[57]
- Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple (Democrat)[58]
Newspapers
Organizations
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
John Deaton (R) |
Undecided [f] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 538[62] | through November 2, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 57.0% | 34.8% | 8.2% | Warren +22.2% |
| RealClearPolitics[63] | September 12 - October 26, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 56.5% | 34.3% | 9.2% | Warren +22.2% |
| 270toWin[64] | October 8 - November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 57.5% | 34.8% | 7.7% | Warren +22.7% |
| TheHill/DDHQ[65] | through November 2, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 58.4% | 36.1% | 5.5% | Warren +22.3% |
| Average | 57.4% | 35.0% | 7.6% | Warren+22.4% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
John Deaton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[66] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 744 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 60% | 37% | – | 3% |
| MassINC Polling Group[67] | October 29 – November 1, 2024 | 582 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 33% | 8%[g] | 4% |
| ActiVote[68] | October 2–30, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 37% | – | – |
| Emerson College[69][C] | October 24–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 36% | 1%[h] | 7% |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov/WCVB[70] | October 3–10, 2024 | 700 (A) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 34% | 3%[i] | 7% |
| Suffolk University[71][D] | October 2–6, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 59% | 35% | – | 6% |
| Opinion Diagnostics (R)[72][E] | September 19–21, 2024 | 638 (LV) | – | 53% | 32% | – | 15% |
| MassINC Polling Group[73][F] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 56% | 35% | 3%[j] | 7% |
| University of New Hampshire[74] | September 12–16, 2024 | 564 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 58% | 32% | 7%[k] | 3% |
| YouGov[75][A] | May 17–30, 2023 | 700 (A) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 24% | 8%[l] | 21% |
Hypothetical polling
Elizabeth Warren vs. Robert Antonellis
Elizabeth Warren vs. Charlie Baker
Elizabeth Warren vs. Ian Cain
Elizabeth Warren vs. Jonathan Kraft
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Johnathan Kraft (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University[77] | February 2–5, 2023 | 1000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 56% | 33% | 11% |
Elizabeth Warren vs. Aaron Packard
Elizabeth Warren vs. Karyn Polito
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) | 2,041,668 | 59.81% | −0.53 | |
| Republican | John Deaton | 1,365,440 | 40.00% | +3.83 | |
| Write-in | 6,221 | 0.18% | +0.08 | ||
| Total votes | 3,413,329 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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By congressional district
Warren won all nine congressional districts.[80]
| District | Warren | Deaton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 56% | 44% | Richard Neal |
| 2nd | 59% | 41% | Jim McGovern |
| 3rd | 58% | 42% | Lori Trahan |
| 4th | 56% | 44% | Jake Auchincloss |
| 5th | 70% | 30% | Katherine Clark |
| 6th | 57% | 43% | Seth Moulton |
| 7th | 82% | 18% | Ayanna Pressley |
| 8th | 59% | 40% | Stephen Lynch |
| 9th | 51% | 49% | Bill Keating |
Notes
- $24,296 of this total was self-funded by Antonellis
- $1,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Deaton
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Aaron Packard with 9%; "Other" with 16%
- Aaron Packard with 1%
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Another candidate" with 3%, "Would not vote for Senate" with 3%, "Prefer not to say" with 2%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Other" with 3%
- "Another candidate" with 1%, "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%, "Prefer not to say" with 1%
- "Another candidate" with 7%
- "Would not vote" with 8%
Partisan clients
- Poll commissioned by the University of Massachusetts Amherst and WCVB-TV
- Poll commissioned by The Boston Globe
- Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe
- Poll sponsored by Deaton's campaign