2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
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The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen won reelection to a third term after comfortably defeating Republican nominee Bryant Messner by 15.6 points and sweeping every single county in the state. This marked the first Senate election since 1972 in which the Democrat carried Belknap County.
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November 3, 2020
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Shaheen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
80–90% >90% Messner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Shaheen's final margin outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election by around 8 percentage points, while carrying two counties that voted for Donald Trump.
The primary election was held on September 8, 2020.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jeanne Shaheen, incumbent U.S. senator[1]
Eliminated in primary
- Tom Alciere, former Republican state representative[2]
- Paul J. Krautmann, former dentist[2]
Endorsements
Jeanne Shaheen
Federal officials
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator (NY); former 2020 presidential candidate[3]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator (MN); former 2020 presidential candidate[4]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator (MA); former 2020 presidential candidate[5]
Local officials
- Jim Bouley, Concord mayor[6]
- Joyce Craig, Manchester mayor[6]
- Jim Donchess, Nashua mayor[6]
- Andrew Hosmer, Laconia mayor[6]
Organizations
- Brady Campaign[7]
- Council for a Livable World[8]
- EMILY's List[9]
- End Citizens United[10]
- Feminist Majority PAC[11]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[12]
- J Street PAC[13]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[14]
- League of Conservation Voters[15]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[16]
- National Organization for Women[17]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[18]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[19]
- Population Connection[20]
- Sierra Club[21]
- Women's Political Committee[22]
Results
Shaheen—≥90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent) | 142,012 | 93.88% | |
| Democratic | Paul Krautman | 5,914 | 3.91% | |
| Democratic | Tom Alciere | 2,992 | 1.98% | |
| Republican | Don Bolduc (write-in) | 199 | 0.13% | |
| Republican | Corky Messner (write-in) | 137 | 0.09% | |
| Republican | Andy Martin (write-in) | 11 | 0.0% | |
| Republican | Gerard Beloin (write-in) | 3 | 0.0% | |
| Total votes | 151,268 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Gerard Beloin, ski instructor[2]
- Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general[26]
- Andy Martin, journalist and perennial candidate[27]
Withdrew
- Bill O'Brien, former speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives[28]
Declined
- Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. senator and former attorney general of New Hampshire[29][30]
- Al Baldasaro, state representative[31] (endorsed Bill O'Brien)[32]
- Scott Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. senator from Massachusetts, 2014 Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire[31]
- Eddie Edwards, former police chief of South Hampton, former chief of the New Hampshire State Division of Liquor Enforcement, and nominee for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in 2018[33] (accepted executive state appointment)[34]
- Corey Lewandowski, President Donald Trump's former campaign manager[35]
- Jay Lucas, businessman[36]
- Chris Sununu, incumbent governor of New Hampshire (running for re-election)[37]
Endorsements
Don Bolduc
Federal officials
- Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas and former U.S. Representative (AR-04) (2013–2015)[38]
- Bob Smith, former U.S. senator from New Hampshire (1990–2003) and U.S. Representative (NH-01) (1985–1990)[39]
- Mike Waltz, U.S. representative (FL-06)[40]
- Thomas E. White, former U.S. Secretary of the Army (2001–2004)[40]
State officials
- Kevin Avard, former state senator (2014–2018) and state representative (2010–2012)[40]
- Jim Coburn, former state representative (2004–2006) and Republican nominee in the 2006 New Hampshire gubernatorial election[40]
- Susan DeLemus, former state representative (2010–2012, 2014–2016)[40]
- Shaun Doherty, former state representative (2008–2012)[40]
- William Fowler, state representative[40]
- Bob Giuda, state senator and former state representative (2001–2007) and state House deputy majority leader (2003–2004)[40]
- Gary Hopper, state representative[40]
- Joseph Kenney, former executive councilor (2014–2019) and state senator (2003–2009)[41]
- Gary Lambert, former state senator (2010–2012)[40]
- Tim Merlino, state representative[40]
- Michael Moffett, former state representative (2016–2018)[40]
- Reed Panasiti, state representative[40]
- Terry Roy, state representative[40]
- Doug Scamman, former state representative (2004–2010) and state House speaker[40]
- David Testerman, state representative[40]
- Joshua Whitehouse, former state representative (2014–2016)[40]
- Raymond Wieczorek, former executive councilor (2002–2012) and mayor of Manchester (1990–2000)[40]
Organizations
- SEAL PAC[40]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[42]
Individuals
- Jeb Bush, 2016 Republican presidential candidate and former governor of Florida (1999–2007)[43]
- Jack Kimball, former New Hampshire Republican Party chair (2011)[citation needed]
Corky Messner
Federal officials
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky[44]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[45]
State officials
- Dennis Acton, state representative[46]
- Joe Alexander, state representative[47]
- Alan Bershtein, state representative[46]
- Regina Birdsell, state senator and former state representative (2010–2014)[citation needed]
- Tom Dolan, state representative[47]
- Fred Doucette, state representative[48]
- Jess Edwards, state representative[49]
- Aboul Khan, state representative[46]
- Tony Lekas, state representative[47]
- Norman Major, state representative[46]
- Charles McMahon, state representative[47]
- Chuck Morse, state senator, state Senate minority leader, and former state Senate president (2013–2018) and acting Governor (2017)[50]
- Bill O'Brien, Republican candidate in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire and former state representative (2004–2006, 2008–2016) and state House speaker (2010–2012)[51]
- Mark Pearson, state representative[47]
- Stephen Pearson, state representative[47]
- Kim Rice, state representative[52]
- Steve Schmidt, former state representative (2010–2018)[52]
- Thomas Walsh, state representative[52]
- Kenneth Weyler, state representative[52]
- Michael Yakubovich, state representative[46]
Organizations
Individuals
- John Campbell, former U.S. Army Vice Chief of Staff (2013–2014)[49]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Don Bolduc | Corey Lewandowski | Corky Messner | Bill O'Brien | Other | Undecided | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[55] | August 28 – September 1, 2020 | 703 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 31% | – | 52% | – | 0%[b] | 17% | |||||
| Saint Anselm College[56] | August 15–17, 2020 | 475 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 29% | – | 31% | – | 4%[c] | 37% | |||||
| The Tarrance Group[57][A] | July 12–14, 2020 | 401 (LV) | ± 5% | 27% | – | 39% | – | – | – | |||||
| Remington Research Group[58][B] | June 21–23, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 8% | – | 17% | – | – | 73% | |||||
| O'Brien withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||
| Lewandowski announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||
| Emerson College[59] | September 6–9, 2019 | 379 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 29% | 4% | 7% | – | 56% | |||||
| Vote Adjustments/WMUR[60] | September 5–6, 2019 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 9% | 29% | 2% | 6% | – | 49% | |||||
| Messner announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||
| Remington Research (R)[61][B] | August 12–14, 2019 | 200 (RV) | – | 21% | 21% | 2% | 8% | – | 47% | |||||
| Fabrizio (R)[62][C] | August 11–12, 2019 | 400 (LV) | – | 11% | 30% | – | 10% | – | – | |||||
Results
Messner—50–60%
Messner—40–50%
Bolduc—40–50%
Bolduc—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Corky Messner | 69,801 | 50.26% | |
| Republican | Don Bolduc | 58,749 | 42.30% | |
| Republican | Andy Martin | 6,443 | 4.64% | |
| Republican | Gerard Beloin | 3,098 | 2.23% | |
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen (write-in) | 771 | 0.56% | |
| Democratic | Tom Alciere (write-in) | 7 | 0.0% | |
| Democratic | Paul Krautmann (write-in) | 7 | 0.0% | |
| Total votes | 138,876 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Justin O'Donnell, Libertarian nominee for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district in 2018,[2] qualified for general election ballot by petition on September 2, 2020[64]
Bull Moose Party
Did not qualify
General election
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Jeanne Shaheen | Bryant Messner | Justin O'Donnell | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 20, 2020 | WMUR-TV | Laura Knoy Annie Ropeik |
[65] | P | P | N |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[66] | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[67] | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[69] | Safe D | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[70] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[71] | Lean D | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[72] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[73] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[74] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
Additional general election endorsements
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Corky Messner (R) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group[79] | October 26–28, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 57% | 40% | 3%[d] |
| University of New Hampshire[80] | October 24–28, 2020 | 864 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 54% | 43% | 2%[e] |
| Saint Anselm College[81] | October 23–26, 2020 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 39% | 8%[f] |
| YouGov/UMass Lowell[82] | October 16–26, 2020 | 757 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 57% | 38% | 5%[g] |
| University of New Hampshire[83] | October 9–12, 2020 | 899 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 40% | 6%[h] |
| Suffolk University[84] | October 8–12, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 36% | 13%[i] |
| Saint Anselm College[85] | October 1–4, 2020 | 1,147 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 38% | 8%[j] |
| Emerson College[86] | September 30 – October 1, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 55% | 40% | 5%[k] |
| American Research Group[79] | September 25–28, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 56% | 40% | 4%[l] |
| University of New Hampshire[87] | September 24–28, 2020 | 972 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 41% | 5%[m] |
| YouGov/UMass Lowell[88] | September 17–25, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 56% | 37% | 7%[n] |
| University of New Hampshire[55] | August 28 – September 1, 2020 | 1,889 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 54% | 36% | 9%[o] |
| University of New Hampshire[89] | July 16–28, 2020 | 1,893 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 54% | 35% | 12%[p] |
| University of New Hampshire[89] | June 18–22, 2020 | 932 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 37% | 13%[q] |
| University of New Hampshire[89] | May 14–18, 2020 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 34% | 14%[r] |
| University of New Hampshire[90] | February 19–25, 2020 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 28% | 21%[s] |
Hypothetical polling
with Don Bolduc
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Don Bolduc (R) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[55] | August 28 – September 1, 2020 | 1,889 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 53% | 37% | 10%[t] |
| University of New Hampshire[89] | July 16–28, 2020 | 1,893 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 54% | 35% | 10%[u] |
| University of New Hampshire[89] | June 18–22, 2020 | 932 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 39% | 11%[v] |
| University of New Hampshire[89] | May 14–18, 2020 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 39% | 11%[u] |
| University of New Hampshire[90] | February 19–25, 2020 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 30% | 22%[w] |
| Remington Research (R)[61][B] | August 12–14, 2019 | 427 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing[91] | August 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 38% | 11%[x] |
with Corey Lewandowski
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Corey Lewandowski (R) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group[79] | December 12–16, 2019 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 58% | 35% | 7% |
| Emerson College[59] | November 22–26, 2019 | 1,184 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| American Research Group[79] | September 20–24, 2019 | 560 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 56% | 34% | 10% |
| Emerson College[59] | September 6–9, 2019 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Remington Research (R)[61][B] | August 12–14, 2019 | 427 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 37% | – |
with Bill O'Brien
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Bill O'Brien (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[90] | February 19–25, 2020 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 51% | 30% | 5% | 14% |
| Gravis Marketing[91] | August 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 39% | – | 9% |
with Chris Sununu
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[92] | February 21–22, 2019 | 910 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| YouGov/UMass Amherst[93] | February 7–15, 2019 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 42% | 10% |
with Kelly Ayotte
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/UMass Amherst[93] | February 7–15, 2019 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 41% | 36% | 20% |
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College[56] | August 15–17, 2020 | 1,042 (RV) | ± 3% | 49% | 44% | 2% | 4% |
| Saint Anselm College[94] | Jun 13–16, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 3% | 46% | 43% | 2% | 8% |
| Saint Anselm College[95] | Apr 23–27, 2020 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 42% | 3% | 6% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent) | 450,778 | 56.63% | +5.17% | |
| Republican | Bryant "Corky" Messner | 326,229 | 40.99% | −7.22% | |
| Libertarian | Justin O'Donnell | 18,421 | 2.32% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 486 | 0.06% | –0.27% | ||
| Total votes | 795,914 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
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By congressional district
Shaheen won both congressional districts.[97]
| District | Shaheen | Messner | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 56% | 42% | Chris Pappas |
| 2nd | 57% | 40% | Annie Kuster |
See also
Notes
Partisan clients
Voter samples
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Some other candidate" with 0%
- "Someone else" with 4%
- O'Donnell (L) with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- O'Donnell (L) with 2%; "Other" and Undecided with 0%
- O'Donnell (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- O'Donnell (L) with 2%; "Another Candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- O'Donnell (L) and "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 8%
- O'Donnell (L) with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
- "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
- O'Donnell (L) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- O'Donnell (L) with 3%; "Another Candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- O'Donnell (L) with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
- "Another candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 13%
- "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 13%
- "Another candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 17%
- O'Donnell (L) with 4%; Undecided with 6%
- "Another candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 10%
- "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 10%
- "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 17%
- Undecided with 11%