Carleton in the 2025 Canadian federal election

Carleton, which covers much of Ottawa's rural area and outer suburbs,^[2][3] was considered a Conservative stronghold seat,^[1] with Poilievre holding it, and its predecessor seat Nepean—Carleton since the 2004 Canadian federal election.^[4] First elected when he was 25 years old,^[5] Poilievre won seven straight elections, with only the 2015 election being close.^[3] The 2025 election was the first with Poilievre as leader of the Conservatives.^[2]

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Fanjoy, a stay-at-home father,^[1] former businessman, and environmentalist^[2] began canvassing the district in 2023, and officially became the Liberal candidate in June 2024.^[3] His candidacy was initially seen as a "long shot",^[6] with many people being skeptical of his chances.^[1] During the campaign, he went through two pairs of shoes and a pair of boots, while door-knocking five days a week,^[1] estimating that he knocked on 15,000 doors,^[4] and raised more than $100,000.^[2]

It was not until the last stages of the campaign when the Conservatives began to be worried that the riding was in danger of being lost. With just a few days to go before election day, a source from the Liberal campaign confirmed with the press that their projections showed that the gap between Poilievre and Fanjoy had dropped to five points.^[5]

Both the Liberals and Conservatives sent extra campaign workers to the riding in the final days of the campaign, with Conservative sources confirming Poilievre was at risk of losing the seat.^[5] Poilievre visited the riding the night before election day, though almost half of all voters had already cast their ballots in advance polls, the most of any district in the country.^[2] Previously, Poilievre had only visited the riding at the beginning of the election to launch his campaign.^[5]

In addition to the race being a high-profile one, the campaign was targeted by the Longest Ballot Committee, whose aim is to field many candidates to protest Canada's use of the first-past-the-post voting system. In total, 91 candidates ran in the seat, tying the record for the most candidates on a federal ballot.^[7] The ballot was a metre long and caused logistical difficulties.^[2]

Owing to the closeness of the result, and the sheer length of the ballots, the CBC finally called the race for Fanjoy at 5:00am on election night.^[7]

Fanjoy credited his victory to the ongoing trade war with the United States spurred on by President of the United States Donald Trump,^[7] with the Liberal campaign drawing parallels between Poilievre and Trump's styles.^[3] Many federal public servants live in the riding and Fanjoy targeted them with fears of job cuts by Poilievre.^[3] Fanjoy also stated that Poilievre "took the riding for granted".^[8] Other factors that were attributed to Poilievre's loss include the suburbanization of the riding, with people moving there during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ottawa, as well as Poilievre's support for the Canada convoy protest, which occupied the city's downtown during the pandemic.^[9]

Despite losing the seat, Poilievre decided to stay on as Conservative leader.^[3] As a result, Battle River—Crowfoot MP Damien Kurek announced his intention to vacate his seat, which would trigger a by-election in his riding and allow Poilievre a chance to return to Parliament.^[10][11] Poilievre was elected on August 18, returning to the House of Commons.

• 2025 Canadian federal election in Ontario
• Burnaby Central in the 2025 Canadian federal election
• Terrebonne in the 2025 Canadian federal election
• 2025 Battle River—Crowfoot federal by-election