Ceasefire monitoring and verification

Researchers Govinda Clayton and Valerie Sticher argued that ceasefire monitoring has three benefits: attribution of ceasefire violations, which increases the political cost of violations; distinguishing accidental from intentional violations, which reduces the risk of accidental re-escalation of the conflict; and early warnings regarding information beyond just the absence of violence, which reduces the chance of the conflict parties gaining military advantages during the ceasefire.^[3]

The terminology for M&V activities typically distinguishes monitoring and verification from related activities including investigation, reporting, and dispute resolution. The reporting requirements of an M&V mechanism may be defined in the ceasefire agreement or in implementation documents.^[1]: 54

Monitoring typically includes both human and technical observations, which ay be remote or on-site, continuous or periodic, passive or active. Active monitoring is more difficult during early stages of a ceasefire due to low trust levels and limited access.^[1]: 52

Verification refers to checking the validity of reports on suspected ceasefire violations or related incidents. The methods of verification need to be defined and agreed on by the parties in conflict.^{[1]: 52–53}

Investigation in the M&V context refers to more detailed checking of a ceasefire violation once it is considered verified, in particular to attribute responsibility. This typically requires forensic experts, for whom full access and security guarantees are needed.^{[1]: 52–53}

Technology used in ceasefire monitoring and verification may include aerial drones, surveillance cameras, satellite imagery, radars and arrays of microphones for locating events by triangulation. Computers and software are used for information management: collecting, analysing, archiving, and interpreting data and reporting the interpretations.^[4]

The effectiveness of advanced technology for M&V, in contrast to direct observation and interviews by human observers, is expected to vary between different armed conflict situations around the world. In the case of the 2014–2022 OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, aerial drone usage stopped when violence escalated. As of 2022, the degree to which remote sensors help or hinder compliance with ceasefires was poorly studied.^[5]

The human organisational components of ceasefire monitoring and verification (M&V) typically include a top-level group that is politically responsible for implementing the ceasefire as part of a broader peace process, a main administrative committee, and geographically based sub-committees, which coordinate formally with technical committees and formally or informally coordinate with community-based networks. The United Nations Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (UNDPPA) views gender balance in all the committees as "essential for a credible and responsive M&V mechanism".^{[1]: 53–54}

The involvement in M&V of individuals, organisations, or representatives of uninvolved states that are mutually accepted as uninvolved in the conflict can encourage transparency and accountability. UNDPPA argues that neutral third parties significantly increase the likelihood that an M&V mechanism is effective.^[1]: 55

Women's groups and other civil society organisations can contribute to monitoring, verification and investigation components of an M&V mechanism. The involvement of these community groups in an M&V mechanism can also help to protect the community when violations occur.^{[1]: 55–56}

An M&V mechanism needs procedures for suspension or closure, in particular if the armed conflict re-escalates. Disagreements exist over the 26 February 2022 disabling of the remote cameras of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, following the Russian invasion. While the cameras would have become ineffective within a few days, those few extra days of data would have provided documentary evidence on the early stages of the invasion.^[5]

Historical M&V mechanisms implemented since World War II include the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) established in 1951 by UNSC Resolution 91; the Ceasefire Joint Military Committee for the 2005 Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement; and the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee for the 2015 Myanmar Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement.^[1]: 57