Christmas surprise
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In the field of diplomacy and international relations, a Christmas surprise is a tactic in which a state takes a bold action on or around Christmas day. The occasional method is often employed as a dramatic flourish, either to draw attention, or bargain in private negotiations. The tactic has also been used to retaliate or frustrate, forcing the recall of key staff who must interrupt their vacations to address the development. Use of the tactic is often not tied to the religiosity or religious affiliation of the countries involved. Some nations, such as North Korea, have warned of a Christmas surprise as a nonspecific threat.[1][2] Both Russia and China have frequently used the holiday to unveil new weapons, and to engage in hybrid warfare, including cyber espionage and sabotage.
The Christmas holiday has long been used to advance a nation's negotiating position. During the Iran hostage crisis, Iran rebuffed a Christmas surprise arbitration offer by the United States in its decision to wait out the lame duck Carter administration.[3] The holiday has also been used to smooth over tense diplomatic breakthroughs. In 2014, the United States and Cuba agreed to restore diplomatic relations after 53 years in a Christmas surprise settlement after 18 months of negotiations brokered by the Vatican and Canada.[4] The tactic has also been used among countries when neither they nor their counterparty in negotiations have large Christian populations. In 2015, India's prime minister Narendra Modi made a surprise visit to Pakistan to meet Nawaz Sharif on Christmas in a bid to ease tensions between the countries, despite neither being a Christian-majority country.[5]