2026 United States Senate election in Kansas
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2026 United States Senate election in Kansas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Kansas. Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is seeking a second term. He is being challenged by Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton.
.jpg)
 | |||||||||||
November 3, 2026
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
.jpg)
In the August 4 primary elections, Marshall won the Republican nomination against minimal opposition. Hamilton won the Democratic nomination with 34.9% of the vote over a field of candidates that included former Kansas USDA Rural Development director Christy Davis and Army veteran Noah Taylor.
Democrats have not won a Senate election in Kansas since 1932.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Roger Marshall, incumbent U.S. senator (2021–present)[1]
Eliminated in primary
- Pond Naramore[2]
Endorsements
Roger Marshall
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[3]
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Roger Marshall (R) | $5,528,510 | $957,210 | $4,781,258 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[6] | |||
Results
Marshall
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roger Marshall (incumbent) | 270,632 | 79.9 | |
| Republican | Pond Naramore | 68,100 | 20.1 | |
| Total votes | 338,732 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Adam Hamilton, pastor and founder of the Church of the Resurrection[7] (initially formed exploratory committee as an independent)[8]
Eliminated in primary
- Damon Anderson, business owner[9]
- Christy Davis, former Kansas director for USDA Rural Development and candidate for Kansas's 1st congressional district in 2020[10]
- Jason Hart, former federal prosecutor[11][9]
- Kevin Latz, pediatric orthopedic surgeon[9]
- Erik Murray, commercial real estate developer[12]
- Anne Parelkar, attorney[13]
- Patrick Schmidt, state senator from the 19th district (2025–present) and nominee for Kansas's 2nd congressional district in 2022[14]
- Mike Soetaert, art gallery owner and perennial candidate[13][9]
- Sandy Spidel Neumann, former financial services executive[15]
- Noah Taylor, counterintelligence specialist[16]
Declined
- Cindy Holscher, state senator from the 8th district (2021–present)[17] (running for governor)[18]
- Laura Kelly, governor of Kansas (2019–present)[19]
- Sharice Davids, U.S. representative from Kansas's 3rd congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election)[20]
Endorsements
Adam Hamilton
- Statewide officials
- Kathleen Sebelius, former governor of Kansas (2003–2009)[21]
- Local officials
- Quinton Lucas, mayor of Kansas City, Missouri (2019–present)[22]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Christy Davis (D) | $80,478 | $38,100 | $85,910 |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | $3,678,710 | $1,081,012 | $2,597,697 |
| Jason Hart (D) | $51,127 | $32,910 | $18,216 |
| Kevin Latz (D) | $37,759 | $8,696 | $54,385 |
| Erik Murray (D) | $209,762 | $199,781 | $9,980 |
| Lois Parelkar (D) | $32,140 | $28,839 | $3,301 |
| Patrick Schmidt (D) | $244,347 | $219,434 | $24,912 |
| Sandy Spidel Neumann (D) | $309,765 | $234,887 | $74,877 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[6] | |||
Polling
Results
Hamilton
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Davis
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 80–90%
Taylor
- 10–20%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Murray
- 30–40%
Schmidt
- 20–30%
Tie
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Adam Hamilton | 77,607 | 34.6 | |
| Democratic | Christy Davis | 31,857 | 14.2 | |
| Democratic | Noah Taylor | 30,362 | 13.6 | |
| Democratic | Anne Parelkar | 16,836 | 7.5 | |
| Democratic | Erik Murray | 15,177 | 6.8 | |
| Democratic | Patrick Schmidt | 13,403 | 6.0 | |
| Democratic | Sandy Spidel Neumann | 12,717 | 5.7 | |
| Democratic | Jason Hart | 12,412 | 5.5 | |
| Democratic | Damon Anderson | 5,879 | 2.6 | |
| Democratic | Kevin Latz | 4,110 | 1.8 | |
| Democratic | Michael Soetaert | 3,716 | 1.7 | |
| Total votes | 224,076 | 100.0 | ||
Third parties
Libertarian
Nominee
- David Graham[25]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Likely R | September 15, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ[27] | Likely R | September 14, 2026 |
| The Economist[28][d] | Lean R | September 14, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne[29] | Likely R | September 14, 2026 |
| Fox News[30] | Likely R | August 18, 2026 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Likely R | September 3, 2026 |
| Race To The WH[32] | Tilt R | September 14, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[33] | Tossup | September 16, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Likely R | August 26, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin[35] | Likely R | August 21, 2026 |
| Split Ticket[36] | Likely R | September 11, 2026 |
Post-primary endorsements
Adam Hamilton (D)
- U.S. senators
- Statewide officials
- Bill Graves, former governor of Kansas (1995–2003) (Republican)[38]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[39]
- Kansas AFL-CIO[40]
- SMART (co-endorsement with Marshall)[41]
- Organizations
- Political parties
- Newspapers
Roger Marshall (R)
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 15, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Roger Marshall (R) | $6,205,622 | $1,027,503 | $5,388,078 |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | $4,169,078 | $2,438,457 | $1,730,621 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[6] | |||
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Roger Marshall | Adam Hamilton | |||||
| 1 | September 12, 2026[43] | WIBW Kansas Radio Networks |
Michael Schwanke | P | P | |
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Roger Marshall (R) |
Adam Hamilton (D) |
Other/ Undecided[e] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin[44] | September 11–18, 2026 | September 18, 2026 | 46.0% | 44.5% | 9.5% | Marshall +1.5% |
| Race to the WH[45] | through September 10, 2026 | September 18, 2026 | 47.1% | 44.7% | 8.2%[f] | Marshall +2.4% |
| RealClearPolitics[46] | through September 16, 2026 | September 18, 2026 | 46.0% | 44.5% | 9.5% | Marshall +1.5% |
| Silver Bulletin[35] | through September 10, 2026 | September 18, 2026 | 46.2% | 44.7% | 9.1% | Marshall +1.5% |
| Average | 46.3% | 44.6% | 9.0% | Marshall +1.7% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Roger Marshall (R) |
Adam Hamilton (D) |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[47][C] | September 15–16, 2026 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 45% | 4%[g] | 8% | ||||||||
| co/efficient (R)[48] | September 8–10, 2026 | 915 (LV) | ± 3.22% | 49% | 44% | 2%[h] | 5% | ||||||||
| Global Strategy Group (D)[49][D] | August 12–16, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 44% | 5%[i] | 8% | ||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[50][E] | August 7–8, 2026 | 569 (LV) | — | 46% | 45% | — | — | ||||||||
| Primary elections | |||||||||||||||
| GBAO (D)[51][F] | July 8–13, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% | ||||||||
| Tavern Research (D)[52] | January 26–28, 2026 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 46% | — | — | ||||||||
Hypothetical polling
Roger Marshall vs. Noah Taylor
Roger Marshall vs. Patrick Schmidt
Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton (running as an independent)
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roger Marshall (incumbent) | ||||
| Democratic | Adam Hamilton | ||||
| Libertarian | David Graham | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Erik Murray with 2%; Jason Hart, Kevin Latz, Sandy Neumann, Anne Parelkar and Mike Soetaert with 1%; Damon Anderson with 0%
- Erik Murray with 2%, Sandy Neumann with 1%, Anne Parelkar with 3%
- The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- David Graham (L) with 2.5%
- David Graham (L) with 4%
- David Graham (L) with 2%
- David Graham (L) with 5%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Hamilton's campaign
- Poll commissioned by Civic Clarity
- Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
- Poll sponsored by People over Politics Action
- Poll sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate
- Poll sponsored by Hamilton's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Schmidt's campaign