2020 United States Senate election in Kansas
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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November 3, 2020
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   Marshall: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bollier: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term.[1] Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat, or to drop out if they had already filed.[2] The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020.[3][4]
Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall was considered a narrow favorite based on polling, but he won by around 11 points, a larger margin than most experts predicted. However, this was the first Senate election since 1978 where a Democrat won Shawnee County, the first Senate election since 1974 where a Democrat won Riley County, and the first Senate election ever in Kansas's history where a Democrat won Johnson County; all three counties were also flipped by Democrat Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Roger Marshall, incumbent U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district[5]
Eliminated in primary
- Lance Berland[6]
- John L. Berman, engineer[6][7]
- Derek Ellis, quality assurance technician[6][8]
- Bob Hamilton, businessman[9]
- Kris Kobach, former secretary of state of Kansas and Republican nominee for governor of Kansas in 2018[10]
- Dave Lindstrom, board chairman for the Kansas Turnpike Authority, former Kansas City Chiefs player, Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Kansas in 2002[11]
- Brian Matlock, economics graduate student[12]
- John Miller[6]
- Steve Roberts, member of the Kansas Board of Education[13]
- Gabriel Mark Robles[6]
Withdrawn
- Jake LaTurner, Kansas State Treasurer (running for U.S. House in District 2)[14]
- Bryan Pruitt, conservative commentator[15]
- Susan Wagle, president of the Kansas Senate[16][17]
Declined
- Alan Cobb, president of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce[18]
- Jeff Colyer, former governor of Kansas and lieutenant governor of Kansas[19][20][21][22][23] (endorsed Roger Marshall)[24]
- Ron Estes, incumbent U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district and former Kansas State Treasurer[25] (running for reelection)
- Wink Hartman, oilman and restaurant owner, nominee for lieutenant governor of Kansas in 2018[19][20][21]
- Ajit Pai, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission[26]
- Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and former U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district[27][28][29][30]
- Pat Roberts, incumbent U.S. senator[1] (endorsed Roger Marshall)[31][32]
- Matt Schlapp, incumbent chairman of the American Conservative Union and former director of the Office of Political Affairs[19][33]
- Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General[34]
- Scott Schwab, Kansas Secretary of State[35][36]
Primary debate
In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier.[37] Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall,[37] in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race.[37] Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving ... career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections."[37] Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It's very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect. ... I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier. ... I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times ... the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said.[37] In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach."[37]
Endorsements
Kris Kobach
Organizations
- America First Media[38]
- Gun Owners of America[39]
- Kansas Operation Rescue[40]
- National Association for Gun Rights[41]
- National Border Patrol Council[42]
- Open Up Kansas Coalition[43]
Individuals
- David Barton, former Texas Republican Party vice chair[44]
- Ann Coulter, Fox News correspondent, conservative commentator and lawyer[45][46]
- James Dobson, Focus on the Family founder[44]
- Peter Thiel, entrepreneur and venture capitalist[45][46]
Roger Marshall
Federal officials
- Bob Dole, 1996 Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. senator from Kansas (1969–1996), former Senate majority leader (1985–1987, 1995–1996), 1976 Republican vice presidential nominee, former U.S. representative (KS-06, 1961–1963; KS-01, 1963–1969)[47]
- Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the United States House of Representatives and former U.S. representative (GA-06, 1979–1999)[48]
Organizations
- Family Policy Alliance of Kansas[49]
- Family Research Council (FRC) Action[50]
- Kansans for Life (KFL) PAC[40]
- Kansas Farm Bureau[51]
- Kansas Livestock Association[52]
- National Right to Life Committee[53]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[54]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Hamilton |
Kris Kobach |
Dave Lindstrom |
Roger Marshall |
Susan Wagle |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[55] | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 419 (LV) | – | 15% | 35% | 4% | 26% | – | 4%[b] | 16% |
| Wagle withdraws from the race | ||||||||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[56][A] | May 10–12, 2020 | 600 (V) | ± 4% | 6% | 26% | 4% | 33% | 7% | – | 24% |
| Hamilton announces his candidacy | ||||||||||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[57][B] | February 12–16, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 2% | 40% | 5% | 23% | 8% | – | 21% |
| co/efficient (R)[58] | January 19–20, 2020 | 1,246 LV | ± 3.2% | – | 29% | – | 29% | 6% | 9%[c] | 28% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[59][C] | October 21–23, 2019 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.1% | – | 43% | 3% | 24% | 8% | 5%[d] | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
with only Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kris Kobach | Roger Marshall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[60][A] | May 10–12, 2020 | 600 (V) | ± 4% | 34% | 48% |
with only Bob Hamilton, Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Hamilton | Kris Kobach | Roger Marshall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[60][A] | May 10–12, 2020 | 600 (V) | ± 4% | 10% | 29% | 41% |
with Mike Pompeo and Susan Wagle
with only Kris Kobach and Mike Pompeo
Results
Marshall
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Kobach
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Hamilton
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roger Marshall | 167,800 | 40.28% | |
| Republican | Kris Kobach | 108,726 | 26.10% | |
| Republican | Bob Hamilton | 77,952 | 18.71% | |
| Republican | Dave Lindstrom | 27,451 | 6.59% | |
| Republican | Steve Roberts | 8,141 | 1.95% | |
| Republican | Brian Matlock | 7,083 | 1.70% | |
| Republican | Lance Berland | 6,404 | 1.54% | |
| Republican | John Miller | 4,431 | 1.06% | |
| Republican | Derek Ellis | 3,970 | 0.95% | |
| Republican | Gabriel Robles | 3,744 | 0.90% | |
| Republican | John Berman | 861 | 0.21% | |
| Total votes | 416,563 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Barbara Bollier, physician and state senator[63]
Eliminated in primary
- Robert Tillman, Kansas National Guard veteran and perennial candidate[64][6]
Withdrawn
- Elliot Adams, database developer[65]
- Nancy Boyda, former U.S. representative from Kansas's 2nd congressional district (endorsed Bollier)[18][66]
- Corbie Crow, certified public accountant[67]
- Barry Grissom, former United States Attorney for the District of Kansas (endorsed Bollier)[68]
- Usha Reddi, mayor of Manhattan[69][70]
- Adam Smith[64][71][6]
Declined
- Paul Davis, former minority leader of the Kansas House of Representatives, nominee for governor in 2014 and KS-02 in 2018[25]
- Kathleen Sebelius, former Secretary of Health and Human Services, former governor of Kansas, and former Kansas Insurance Commissioner[72]
- Sarah Smarsh, author[73]
- Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture, former state representative, and candidate for governor of Kansas in 2018[74]
- Brent Welder, candidate for Kansas's 3rd congressional district in 2018[75]
Endorsements
Barbara Bollier
U.S. senators
- Chuck Schumer, U.S. senator (NY) and Senate Minority Leader[76]
Federal officials
- Nancy Boyda, former U.S. representative (KS-02)[66]
State politicians
- Kathleen Sebelius, former governor (2003-2009), former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (2009-2014)[77]
Former U.S. executive branch officials
- Barry Grissom, former U.S. attorney for Kansas (2010-2016)[78]
State legislators
- Stacey Abrams, former Georgia House of Representatives minority leader (2011-2017) and Democratic nominee in 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election[79]
Organizations
Results
Bollier
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Tillman
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Barbara Bollier | 168,759 | 85.34% | |
| Democratic | Robert Tillman | 28,997 | 14.66% | |
| Total votes | 197,756 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
General election
Post-primary endorsements
Roger Marshall (R)
Federal officials
- Sheila Frahm, former lieutenant governor of Kansas (1995–1996) and former U.S. senator from Kansas (1996)[91]
Barbara Bollier (D)
Federal officials
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator (NY)[92]
- Nancy Kassebaum, former U.S. senator (KS) (Republican)[93]
State and local officials
- Barbara Allen, former Kansas state senator (Republican)[94]
- Pat Colloton, former Kansas state representative (Republican)[94]
- Linda Gallagher, former Kansas state representative (Republican)[94]
- Laura Kelly, governor of Kansas (2019–present)[95]
- Jan Kessinger, Kansas state representative (Republican)[94]
- Audrey Langworthy, former Kansas state senator (Republican)[94]
- Patty Markley, former Kansas state representative (Republican)[94]
- Tim Owens, former Kansas state senator (Republican)[94]
- Jill Quigley, former Kansas state representative (Republican)[94]
- Gary Sherrer, former lieutenant governor of Kansas (1996–2003) (Republican)[94]
- John Skubal, Kansas state senator (Republican)[94]
- Sheryl Spalding, former Kansas state representative (Republican)[94]
- John Vratil, former Kansas state senator and former Senate vice president (Republican)[94]
- Ron Worley, former Kansas state representative (Republican)[94]
- Jim Yonally, former Kansas state representative (Republican)[96]
Organizations
- 314 Action[97]
- Brady Campaign[98]
- Council for a Livable World[99]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[100]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[101]
- Rachel's Action Network[102]
Unions
Newspapers and publications
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[108] | Lean R | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[109] | Tilt R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[110] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[111] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[112] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[113] | Lean R | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[114] | Lean R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[115] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[116] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Roger Marshall (R) |
Barbara Bollier (D) |
Jason Buckley (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data For Progress[117] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 45% | 4% | 1%[f] | – |
| VCreek/AMG[118] | October 25–27, 2020 | 1,149 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 43% | 2% | – | 8% |
| GBAO Strategies (D)[119][g][D] | October 25–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45%[h] | 46% | 4% | 4%[i] | – |
| 47%[j] | 47% | – | – | – | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[120][E] | October 19–20, 2020 | 897 (V) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 43% | 5% | – | 9% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[121] | October 18–20, 2020 | 755 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 42% | 4% | 2%[k] | 6%[l] |
| co/efficient (R)[122][F] | October 18–20, 2020 | 2,453 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 39% | 2% | – | 8% |
| VCreek/AMG (R)[123] | September 29–30, 2020 | 3,104 (LV) | ± 1.75% | 42% | 45% | 2% | – | 11% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[124] | September 26–29, 2020 | 677 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 43% | – | 2%[m] | 5% |
| GBAO Strategies (D)[125][D] | September 24–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 45% | 7% | – | – |
| Data For Progress (D)[126] | September 14–19, 2020 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 40%[h] | 40% | 5% | – | 15% |
| 42%[j] | 42% | – | – | 15% | ||||
| co/efficient (R)[127][F] | September 15–16, 2020 | 794 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 39% | 2% | – | 16% |
| SurveyUSA[128] | August 8–9, 2020 | 1,202 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 44% | – | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[129][G] | August 5–6, 2020 | 864 (V) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 42% | – | – | 15% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[55] | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 41% | – | 9%[c] | 8% |
| NMB Research (R)[130][A] | May 17–19, 2020 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 35% | – | – | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[131] | March 10–11, 2020 | 1,567 (V) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 37% | – | – | – |
Hypothetical polling
Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier
Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kris Kobach (R) |
Barbara Bollier (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[55] | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 42% | 11%[n] | 7% |
| NMB Research/NRSC (R)[132][C] | May 17–19, 2020 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 43% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[133][H] | April 13–14, 2020 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | 44% | – | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[134][B] | February 12–13, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 47% | 38% | – | 15% |
| DFM Research[135][I] | January 30 – February 6, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 4% | 10% |
Kris Kobach vs. Barry Grissom
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican (R) |
Generic Democrat (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC[137][J] | September 15–16, 2020 | 794 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 39% | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[133][H] | April 13–14, 2020 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 50% | 40% | 11% |
| DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division[138][I] | January 30 – February 6, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)[136][C] | June 9–11, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 36% | – |
Results
On the night of the election, Roger Marshall was announced as the winner of the Senate race.[139]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roger Marshall | 727,962 | 53.22% | +0.07% | |
| Democratic | Barbara Bollier | 571,530 | 41.79% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Jason Buckley | 68,263 | 4.99% | +0.67% | |
| Total votes | 1,367,755 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
|
Democratic
Flip |
Republican
Hold
|
Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Johnson (largest city: Overland Park)
- Riley (largest city: Manhattan)
By congressional district
Marshall won three of four congressional districts.[141]
| District | Marshall | Bollier | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 66% | 29% | Roger Marshall |
| Tracey Mann | |||
| 2nd | 52% | 42% | Steve Watkins |
| Jake LaTurner | |||
| 3rd | 42% | 53% | Sharice Davids |
| 4th | 56% | 39% | Ron Estes |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "someone else" with 4%
- "Someone else" with 9%
- Hartman with 5%
- Wagle with 4%; Hartman with 2%; Lindstrom with 1%
- "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
- Archived November 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- Standard VI response
- Includes Undecided
- If Bollier and Marshall were the only candidates
- "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Someone else" with 11%
- Figures for other Republicans tested against Grissom in this poll have not been released, but all others led him by at least 8%
Partisan clients
- Poll conducted for the Marshall campaign.
- This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign
- This poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
- Poll sponsored by Bollier's campaign.
- Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
- Poll sponsored by Keep Kansas Great PAC, which has endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period.
- Poll for EMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office
- Poll sponsored by 314 Action
- The SMART Transportation Division is an AFL-CIO affiliated PAC promoting employee assistance programs for retired railroad, bus, and mass transit workers
- Keep Kansas Great PAC endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period