Climate change in Poland
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In Poland, climate change has resulted in an increase of average temperature above 2 degrees Celsius[1] compared to preindustrial levels, which is higher than the average level of climate change in Europe. Temperature has been observed to increase over the last decades due to anthropogenic activity, and without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions the effects of climate change will become ever more noticeable.
Because of Poland's geographical location, climate effects are variably dispersed. Global warming has been observed to cause heat waves and other weather instabilities in Poland, which causes stress on ecosystems and human well-being. Changes in climate have been monitored by meteorological stations in Poland for over 100 years.[1] In the last decades, the number of days with heavy rains increased, the number of days with snow cover decreased, and there has been an increased intensity of hurricanes, thunderstorms and similar weather events.[2]
Floods and droughts are the main weather related challenges that Poland faces, and they are expected to become more frequent and intense in varying scenarios with predicted climate change. Agriculture and water management remain a major concern for the Polish Ministry of Environment.[3][4]
Energy consumption and sources
Poland's energy, according to the most recent statistics from 2021, is mainly derived from hard and brown coal and crude oil, which are fossil fuels and thus emit greenhouse gasses: they account for 69.2% of Poland's energy supply. Renewable energy carriers account for only 11.8% of the energy supply.[5]
The national consumption of energy was 3 697.5 petajoules in 2021, and follows a slight upward trend in energy consumption that is discernible since the early 2000s.[6] The largest share of direct energy consumption was held by the industry sector, and it amounted to 32.5%. This was followed by the transport sector (including privately owned cars), 27.0% and then households, 25.8%.[5]
Historical emissions
The greenhouse gas emissions of Poland have decreased from their 1990 level.[7] This is partly because of Poland's increased energy efficiency,[8] but there was also a gradual shift towards the import and usage of natural gas;[9] however, this was mostly Russian gas, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent gas dispute has complicated the usage of this resource.[10] Renewable sources such as solar and off-shore wind power are slowly gaining importance in Poland's energy supply.[11]
Impacts on the natural environment
Temperature and weather changes
Observed thermal climate changes
The climate of Poland is generally becoming warmer and cloudier,[15] due to climate change and to changes in atmospheric circulation.[15]
Since the mid-1900s, Poland's average temperature has risen 0.29 degrees per decade. In sum, temperature increased by just over 2 °C.[16] Observed warming in the last 3 decades is connected to global temperature increases; however, in the last two decades, the country has been warming faster than the world on average.
Climate change in Poland has manifested through significant increases in average, maximum, and minimum annual and seasonal air temperatures, an increasing number of hot days, and a decreasing number of frosty days.[15] A decrease in the number of weather types in a year indicates that the weather varies less in the year.
Temperature increases have been stronger in the eastern and western parts of Poland than in the center. The greatest temperature rise (more than 2.1 °C) occurred in the Lake Districts and the weakest one (almost 1.8 °C) in the Sudety Mountains (NC8BR5).
Predicted thermal climate changes
Poland's average temperature is projected to continue to rise throughout this century. An upward trend is discernible in mean temperature both in near and far future and for RCP 4,5 and RCP 8,5 climate projections. While hotter days are expected to become hotter, they will also be more frequent, increasing the chances of long lasting heat waves.[2] The number of days above 25 °C is predicted to rise substantially from 29 days per year in the 2001-2010 period to 52 days in 2071–2090.[17] Meanwhile, frost periods and days (minimum temperature below 0 °C) will decrease throughout the century. Such thermal changes will be more pronounced in the far future, and they depend on the levels of global mitigation and subsequent global warming (as can be seen in the scenario's made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, RCP 4,5 and RCP 8,5). Frost days in Poland are predicted to decrease from 102 days per year in 2001–2010 to 65 days in 2071–2090.[18]
Change in precipitation
Global climate change is accompanied by other climate variabilities, as in change of annual sums of precipitation, and changes in air and oceanic circulation patterns.[19] The annual total precipitation is slightly increasing, yet changes are small and not statistically significant[19][20] Noteworthy are the changes in the monthly and seasonal rainfall distribution, as well as regional/ spatial variabilities.[21][19][1] Significant increases of precipitation have been observed during autumn and winter months, especially in March, while summer precipitation is decreasing.[19] The observed changes of precipitation vary regionally, since precipitation in Poland displays a great spatial variety and dependence on hypsometry.[19] In southeastern Poland there is a downward trend in the total precipitation during spring, summer and winter, while winter precipitation is increasing in northern Poland.[19] The precipitation frequency (expressed by the number of days with precipitation) is increasing annually and above the long-term normal in northern- and western Poland.[1]
Days of snow cover follows a negative trend, in hand with warmer winters, and snow cover frequency is expected to decrease over time.[19]
Sea level rise
A recent study by Poland's national research institute shows that the sea level in Poland has been steadily rising, with 2020 levels being 13–15 centimetres (5.1–5.9 in) higher than 1950 levels.[1]
Ecosystems and biodiversity
Ecosystems and biodiversity are influenced both by a changing climate and by human intervention in ecosystems. A changing climate can cause certain habitats in Poland to shift and change in temperature or water regime.[22] This causes for example the disappearance of Poland's raised mires, transition mires and salt marshes.[23] These effects of climate change are often augmented and supplemented by human-induced habitat transformation and habitat loss. According to the Convention on Biological Diversity, "the main threat to biodiversity is anthropocentric";[24] these threats include for instance air pollution damaging coniferous forest reproduction, hillside deforestation that causes degradation of riverbanks and their populations, and the reclamation of swamp lands that reduces alder habitats.[24]
Moreover, they state that "a serious problem in Poland is the expansion of new alien species that pose a threat to native species."[24] Alien, invasive species pose a threat to existing, native species.[25] Examples of invasive species are the American mink (Neovison vison),[25] small balsam (Impatiens parviflora),[26] or the pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus).[27] Since the introduction of the American mink, several species of water birds and semi-aquatic mammals have decreased.[25] Where changes in mean temperature and precipitation could mean a setback to native populations, it could be beneficial to invasive species, such as the pumpkinseed fish that thrives in warmer water.[27] Advancing invasive species are especially dangerous in national parks, where native flora and fauna is otherwise more or less protected from anthropocentric influence.[26] Although natural reserves often have a stronger natural ecosystem and thus are more resilient to invading non-native species, they are also of greater importance to retain biodiversity; this makes a successful invasive species in those area's more dangerous to the Polish ecosystem.[26] Small balsam is the most common invasive species found in Poland's national parks.[26] Poland's national reserves also suffer from excessive tourism, and both that and invasive species are a factor in the destruction of Poland's small-scale habitats.[24]
