2014 United States Senate election in Montana
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election.
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November 4, 2014
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 County results Daines: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Curtis: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term, resigned in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China under President Barack Obama. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock.[1]
Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3 and ran for a first full term in office, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014, due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College.[2] Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16.[3] Steve Daines, the incumbent U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district, easily won the Republican nomination.
Daines defeated Curtis 57.9% to 40.0%, while Libertarian Roger Roots won 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years.[4] Daines became the first Republican to win this Senate seat since 1907, as well as the first to ever be popularly elected to the seat.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Dirk Adams, rancher, businessman and former business law professor[5]
- John Bohlinger, former Republican lieutenant governor of Montana[6][7][8]
- John Walsh, incumbent U.S. Senator, former lieutenant governor of Montana and former adjutant general of the Montana National Guard[9][10]
Declined
- Max Baucus, former U.S. senator[11]
- John Brueggeman, former Republican state senator[12]
- Steve Bullock, governor of Montana[13]
- Shane Colton, attorney and former commissioner of the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks[14]
- Amanda Curtis, state representative[15]
- Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2010[16]
- Mike Halligan, executive director of the Dennis and Phyllis Washington Foundation and former state senator[14]
- Denise Juneau, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction[17]
- Nancy Keenan, former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America and former Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction[18]
- John Lewis, former state director for Senator Max Baucus (ran for the U.S. House)[19]
- Monica Lindeen, Montana state auditor[20]
- Linda McCulloch, secretary of state of Montana and former state representative[21]
- Mike McGrath, chief justice of the Montana Supreme Court and former attorney general of Montana[22]
- Brian Morris, judge of the United States District Court for the District of Montana and former associate justice of the Montana Supreme Court[14]
- John Morrison, former Montana state auditor and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006[23]
- Stephanie Schriock, president of Emily's List and former chief of staff to Senator Jon Tester[24]
- Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana[25]
- Kendall Van Dyk, state senator[14]
- Mike Wheat, justice of the Montana Supreme Court (ran for re-election)[26]
- Carol Williams, former majority leader of the Montana Senate and nominee for lieutenant governor of Montana in 2000[27]
- Pat Williams, former U.S. representative[27]
- Whitney Williams, former director of operations for Hillary Clinton[27]
- Franke Wilmer, state representative[28]
- Jonathan Windy Boy, state senator
Endorsements
John Walsh
Elected officials
- Max Baucus, former U.S. senator (D-MT)[29]
- Steve Bullock, governor of Montana[30]
- Jon Tester, U.S. senator (D-MT)[31]
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Walsh |
Dirk Adams |
John Bohlinger |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 381 | ± 5% | 39% | 3% | 31% | — | 27% |
| Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 23% | 2% | 23% | — | 52% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus |
Brian Schweitzer |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[35] | June 16–19, 2011 | 333 | ± 5.4% | 34% | 51% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[36] | November 28–30, 2011 | 573 | ± 4.1% | 35% | 51% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[37] | April 26–29, 2012 | 332 | ± 5.4% | 37% | 48% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[37] | September 10–11, 2012 | 201 | ± 5.4% | 36% | 40% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 371 | ± 5.1% | 35% | 54% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau |
Brian Schweitzer |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 165 | ± 7.63% | 14% | 78% | — | 8% |
Results
Walsh
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Bohlinger
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Walsh (incumbent) | 48,665 | 64.04% | |
| Democratic | John Bohlinger | 17,187 | 22.62% | |
| Democratic | Dirk Adams | 10,139 | 13.34% | |
| Total votes | 75,991 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic convention
Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20.[41] The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office."[42]
Candidates
Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana.[43][44]
Potential
- Dirk Adams, rancher, businessman and former business law professor[45]
- John Bohlinger, former Republican Lieutenant Governor of Montana[45]
- Amanda Curtis, state representative[46]
- Linda McCulloch, secretary of state of Montana[47]
- Anna Whiting Sorrell, former director of the state Department of Health and Human Services and former state director of the Indian Health Services[48]
Withdrew
- Franke Wilmer, state representative[46][49]
- David Wanzenried, state senator[46][50]
Declined
- Jeff Bridges, actor and part-time Montana resident[43]
- Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana[51]
- Denise Juneau, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction[51]
- Nancy Keenan, former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America and former Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction[52]
- Monica Lindeen, Montana State Auditor[51]
- Stephanie Schriock, president of Emily's List and former chief of staff to Senator Jon Tester[52]
- Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana[46]
- Carol Williams, former Majority Leader of the Montana Senate and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Montana in 2000[51]
Endorsements
Amanda Curtis
Elected officials
- Steve Bullock, governor of Montana[53]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, junior U.S. senator from New York
- Denise Juneau, Montana State Superintendent of Public Instruction[53]
- Monica Lindeen, Montana Commissioner of Securities & Insurance[53]
- Linda McCulloch, Montana secretary of state[53]
- Angela McLean, lieutenant governor of Montana[53][54]
- Jon Tester, senior U.S. senator from Montana[55]
- John Walsh, junior U.S. senator from Montana[56]
- Mike Wheat, Montana Supreme Court justice[57]
Organizations
- Democracy for America, political action committee
- EMILY's List, political action committee[58]
- International Association of Firefighters, labor union[59]
- Montana AFL–CIO, labor union[50]
- Montana Conservation Voters conservation movement organization[60]
- Montana Education Association-Montana Federation of Teachers, labor union[61]
- Montana Laborers' International Union of North America, labor union[62]
- Montana Native Vote,[63] Native American rights organization[64]
- Montana Sportsmen Alliance[65] sportsmen and conservation organization[66]
- Montana State Building and Construction Trades Council, trade union[67]
- Montana Stonewall Democrats, LGBT rights group affiliated with the Democratic Party[68]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America, reproductive rights organization[69]
- National Organization for Women, feminist organization[70]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Amanda Curtis | 82 | 64.0% | |
| Democratic | Dirk Adams | 46 | 36.0% | |
| Total votes | 128 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Susan Cundiff[72]
- Steve Daines, U.S. Representative and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008[73][74]
- Champ Edmunds, state representative[75]
Withdrew
- David Leaser, air traffic manager at Glacier Park International Airport[76][77]
- Corey Stapleton, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2012 (running for MT-AL)[78]
Declined
- Chuck Baldwin, Baptist pastor, radio host, Constitution Party nominee for vice president in 2004 and for president in 2008[79]
- John Bohlinger, former lieutenant governor of Montana (ran as a Democrat)[6]
- Tim Fox, attorney general of Montana[80]
- Rick Hill, former U.S. representative and nominee for governor in 2012[81]
- Krayton Kerns, state representative[82]
- Marc Racicot, former governor of Montana[83]
- Denny Rehberg, former U.S. representative, former lieutenant governor and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012[84]
- Scott Reichner, state representative (ran for the state senate)[85]
- Matthew Rosendale, state senator (ran for the U.S. House)[86]
- Jon Sonju, state senator and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2012[85]
- Larry R. Williams, author, commodity trader and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1978 and 1982[87]
- Ryan Zinke, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2012 (ran for the U.S. House)[88]
Endorsements
Steve Daines
Elected officials
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania and candidate for president of the United States in 2012[89]
Organizations
- Citizens Against Government Waste Political Action Committee (CCAGW PAC)[90]
- Gun Owners of America[91]
- Tea Party Express[92]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines |
Champ Edmunds |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 469 | ± 4.5% | 66% | 7% | 27% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines |
Champ Edmunds |
Marc Racicot |
Corey Stapleton |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 472 | ± 4.51% | 26% | 3% | 42% | 6% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 340 | ± 5.3% | 28% | 5% | 47% | 5% | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines | 110,565 | 83.37% | |
| Republican | Susan Cundiff | 11,909 | 8.98% | |
| Republican | Champ Edmunds | 10,151 | 7.65% | |
| Total votes | 132,625 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian nomination
Candidates
Declared
- Roger Roots, nominee for secretary of state of Montana in 2012[72]
Independents
Candidates
Declined
- John Bohlinger, former lieutenant governor of Montana (ran as a Democrat)[6]
- Sam Rankin, real estate broker (did not qualify)[94]
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 20, 2014
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[95] | Solid R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[96] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[97] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[98] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Amanda Curtis (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[99] | August 18–19, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 55% | 35% | 2% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[100] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 684 | ± 5% | 53% | 35% | 1% | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing[101] | September 29–30, 2014 | 535 | ± 4% | 54% | 41% | — | 5% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[102] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 549 | ± 5% | 55% | 34% | 0% | 10% |
| The MSU-Billings Poll[103] | October 6–11, 2014 | 410 | ± 5% | 47% | 31% | 2%[104] | 21% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[102] | October 16–23, 2014 | 497 | ± 6% | 56% | 38% | 0% | 6% |
| Gravis Marketing[105] | October 23–24, 2014 | 604 | ± 4% | 53% | 39% | — | 8% |
Hypothetical polling
With Adams
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dirk Adams (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 20% | 44% | — | 36% |
with Baucus
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 49% | — | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Tim Fox (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 47% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 38% | — | 16% |
With Bohlinger
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 51% | — | 13% |
| Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 32% | 43% | — | 25% |
| Harper Polling[106] | April 7–8, 2014 | 604 | ± 4.3% | 33% | 44% | — | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 37% | 39% | — | 24% |
With Juneau
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 48% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 34% | — | 25% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 52% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | — | 21% |
With Keenan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 49% | — | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 41% | 36% | — | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Tim Fox (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 40% | 45% | — | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 38% | 50% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 40% | 40% | — | 20% |
With Lindeen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 49% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 34% | — | 26% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 52% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 37% | — | 24% |
With Schweitzer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 771 | ± 3.53% | 50% | 40% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 52% | 37% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 37% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Tim Fox (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 46% | — | 9% |
| Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 771 | ± 3.53% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 47% | — | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 39% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 38% | — | 10% |
With Walsh
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Walsh (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 35% | 52% | — | 13% |
| Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 29% | 43% | — | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports[99] | March 17–18, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 37% | 51% | 4% | 9% |
| Magellan Strategies[107] | April 1–2, 2014 | 2,490 | ± 1.96% | 36% | 49% | 9%[108] | 6% |
| Harper Polling[106] | April 7–8, 2014 | 604 | ± 4.3% | 35% | 42% | — | 23% |
| Hickman Analytics[109] | April 24–30, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 37% | 49% | — | 14% |
| Vox Populi Polling[110] | May 21–22, 2014 | 806 | ± 3.5% | 33% | 56% | — | 11% |
| Magellan Strategies[111] | June 4–5, 2014 | 761 | ± 3.57% | 39% | 55% | — | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[99] | June 9–10, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 35% | 53% | 3% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[112] | July 17–18, 2014 | 574 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 46% | — | 15% |
| Gravis Marketing[113] | July 20–22, 2014 | 741 | ± 4% | 41% | 45% | 6%[104] | 7% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[114] | July 5–24, 2014 | 838 | ± 3.6% | 39% | 55% | 2% | 4% |
| Gravis Marketing[115] | July 24, 2014 | 781 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 9%[104] | 8% |
| Vox Populi Polling[116] | August 3–4, 2014 | 798 | ± 3.5% | 34% | 47% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Walsh (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 38% | — | 26% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines | 213,709 | 57.79% | +30.71% | |
| Democratic | Amanda Curtis | 148,184 | 40.07% | −32.85% | |
| Libertarian | Roger Roots | 7,933 | 2.14% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 369,826 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Beaverhead (largest city: Dillon)
- Broadwater (largest city: Townsend)
- Carbon (largest city: Red Lodge)
- Carter (largest city: Ekalaka)
- Cascade (largest city: Great Falls)
- Custer (largest city: Miles City)
- Daniels (largest city: Scobey)
- Fallon (largest city: Baker)
- Fergus (largest city: Lewistown)
- Flathead (largest city: Kalispell)
- Garfield (largest city: Jordan)
- Golden Valley (largest city: Ryegate)
- Granite (largest city: Philipsburg)
- Hill (largest city: Havre)
- Jefferson (largest city: Clancy)
- Judith Basin (largest city: Stanford)
- Lewis and Clark (largest city: Helena)
- Liberty (largest city: Chester)
- Lincoln (largest city: Libby)
- Madison (largest city: Ennis)
- McCone (largest city: Circle)
- Meagher (largest city: White Sulphur Springs)
- Musselshell (largest city: Roundup)
- Park (largest city: Livingston)
- Petroleum (largest city: Winnett)
- Phillips (largest city: Malta)
- Pondera (largest city: Conrad)
- Powder River (largest city: Broadus)
- Powell (largest city: Deer Lodge)
- Prairie (largest city: Terry)
- Ravalli (largest city: Hamilton)
- Richland (largest city: Sidney)
- Rosebud (largest city: Colstrip)
- Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)
- Dawson (largest city: Glendive)
- Mineral (largest city: Superior)
- Sheridan (largest city: Plentywood)
- Gallatin (largest city: Bozeman)
- Lake (largest city: Polson)
- Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
- Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)
- Sanders (largest city: Thompson Falls)
- Stillwater (largest city: Columbus)
- Sweet Grass (largest city: Big Timber)
- Teton (largest city: Choteau)
- Toole (largest city: Shelby)
- Treasure (largest city: Hysham)
- Valley (largest city: Glasgow)
- Wheatland (largest city: Harlowton)
- Wibaux (largest city: Wibaux)
See also
Notes
- John Walsh was originally the Democratic nominee, but withdrew due to plagiarism allegations and was replaced by Curtis.
- In February 2014, Walsh was appointed by Governor Steve Bullock to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Max Baucus, who had appointed U.S. Ambassador to China.