Draft:Second American Civil War

Hypothetical new civil war in the United States. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


A second American Civil War is the hypothetical reoccurrence of a full-scale civil war in the United States following the first American Civil War (1861-1865), and it is a historical term analyzing periods of heightened instability in the United States.[1][2]

While a new civil war is considered unlikely to happen in the United States,[2][3][4] it has been a topic of academic research, recent popular discussion, and is a recurring theme in speculative fiction.[5] Discussion of such a conflict has increased due to heightened political polarization in the United States.[1] Since the 2020s, public opinion polls have shown that many Americans believe a new civil war is likely.[3][6][7][8]

Academic research

Definition

Using the Correlates of War, a review by authors at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) defines a new civil war in the United States as a conflict between an organized opposition and the government which has at least 1,000 battle deaths with some proportion of deaths on both sides.[2] They note that political violence is common in American history but that civil wars are not.[2]

Speculation over likelihood

Most research considers the possibility of a new, full-scale civil war occuring in the United States to be unlikely.[2][3][4] A review by CSIS notes that the United States lacks many structural causes of civil wars such as a low GDP per capita, weak government capacity, rebel access to natural resources or cycles of violence under an authoritarian state.[2] Similarly, a review by social psychologists argues that, despite many modern social similarities to the 1850s, there are mitigating circumstances to a full-scale war. These circumstances include the presence of politically moderate politicians, common shared values among Americans and attempts by technology companies to reduce misinformation and fake news.[4]: 23 

However, some scholars have argued for a serious but conditional, possibility of civil war.[9][10] The journalist and novelist Stephen Marche in The Next Civil War consulted experts and argued that, "the crisis has already arrived. Only the inciting incidents are pending."[11] Similarly, the political scientist Barbara F. Walter has argued in How Civil Wars Start that the United States since the late 2010s has features associated with civil war. These include becoming an anocracy[12] and having politically motivated ethnic tensions.[13]

Speculation over features of war

County maps of 1860 and 2020 presidential elections. While the divides in the 1861 civil war were more geographically demarcated, modern political divisions are less regionally divided.a

While such a war happening is generally not considered likely, some scholars have speculated over the features a modern civil war if it ever occurred.[10][9] Barbara Walter argues that, if a second civil war ever happened, it would be an insurgency with a high reliance on terrorist tactics[14] and use of leaderless resistance.[15] Stephen Marche also argues for the possibility of stochastic terrorism if a civil war happened.[16] Walter states it would be unlike the American Civil War, which was much more conventionally fought and the political divide was more geographically demarcated than modern political divides are.[17] Marche has posited that in a civil war situation, states like California and Texas would attempt to secede.[18]

Extended use of term

Other scholars have used terms like "Second American Civil War" to refer to periods of heightened instability in the United States, with the American Civil War as the key reference point. Specifically, "events related to the American Revolutionary War (1775–1783), Reconstruction (1865–1877), and Coal Wars (ca. 1890–ca. 1930) bear the hallmarks of civil war in the views of some experts."[1]

Speculative fiction

Fictional political factions in Civil War (2024). The factions are intended to be vague.[19]
  Loyalist States (United States government)
  Western Forces
  Florida Alliance
  New People's Army

The idea of a second American Civil War, has been used throughout speculative fiction. Some scholars have argued that many second civil war fictional novels were written to inspire far-right radicalization and violence, such as The Turner Diaries.[5] However, novels such as alternative history The Guns of the South or future dystopian fiction series such as The Hunger Games and Divergent do not attempt to do this.[5]b

Media discussion

Since the increase in political polarization in the United States in 2016, there has been a rise in popular discussions about a new civil war.[1] For instance, New York Times columnists Michelle Goldberg,[20] Jamelle Bouie,[21] and Ross Douthat[22] have written columns discussing whether a new civil war is possible. Similarly, there have been multiple Washington Post columns on the topic.[23][24][25]

Public opinion

Public opinion polls have shown that many Americans believe a civil war is likely. In a 2021 Zogby poll, a plurality of Americans (46%) believed that a new civil war was likely.[3] A 2022 YouGov poll found that, among Democrats and Republicans, 40% of Americans thought a civil war was "somewhat" or "very" likely.[6] In 2024, a Marist poll found that 47% of Americans believed a new civil was was "likely" or "very likely."[7] In 2025, a poll conducted by the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights found that 57% of Americans believed "America is on the path to another Civil War."[8]

See also

Notes

a.^ The 1860 election was heavily split into four candidates but northern and southern voters aligned regionally on the slavery issue.
b.^ See the wikipedia category Second American Civil War speculative fiction for more examples in other media.

References

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