Effective evolutionary time
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The hypothesis of effective evolutionary time[1] attempts to explain gradients, in particular latitudinal gradients, in species diversity. It was originally named "time hypothesis".[2][3]
Low (warm) latitudes contain significantly more species than high (cold) latitudes. This has been shown for many animal and plant groups, although exceptions exist (see latitudinal gradients in species diversity). An example of an exception is helminths of marine mammals, which have the greatest diversity in northern temperate seas, possibly because of small population densities of hosts in tropical seas that prevented the evolution of a rich helminth fauna, or because they originated in temperate seas and had more time for speciations there. It has become more and more apparent that species diversity is best correlated with environmental temperature and more generally environmental energy. These findings are the basis of the hypothesis of effective evolutionary time. Species have accumulated fastest in areas where temperatures are highest. Mutation rates and speed of selection due to faster physiological rates are highest, and generation times which also determine speed of selection, are smallest at high temperatures. This leads to a faster accumulation of species, which are absorbed into the abundantly available vacant niches, in the tropics. Vacant niches are available at all latitudes, and differences in the number of such niches can therefore not be the limiting factor for species richness. The hypothesis also incorporates a time factor: habitats with a long undisturbed evolutionary history will have greater diversity than habitats exposed to disturbances in evolutionary history.
The hypothesis of effective evolutionary time offers a causal explanation of diversity gradients, although it is recognized that many other factors can also contribute to and modulate them.
Historical aspects
Some aspects of the hypothesis are based on earlier studies. Bernhard Rensch,[4] for example, stated that evolutionary rates also depend on temperature: numbers of generation in poikilotherms, but sometimes also in homoiotherms (homoiothermic), are greater at higher temperatures and the effectiveness of selection is therefore greater. Ricklefs refers to this hypothesis as "hypothesis of evolutionary speed" or "higher speciation rates".[5] Genera of Foraminifera in the Cretaceous and families of Brachiopoda in the Permian have greater evolutionary rates at low than at high latitudes.[6] That mutation rates are greater at high temperatures has been known since the classical investigations of Nikolay Timofeev-Ressovsky et al. (1935),[7] although few later studies have been conducted. Also, these findings were not applied to evolutionary problems.
The hypothesis of effective evolutionary time differs from these earlier approaches as follows. It proposes that species diversity is a direct consequence of temperature-dependent processes and the time ecosystems have existed under more or less equal conditions. Since vacant niches into which new species can be absorbed are available at all latitudes, the consequence is accumulation of more species at low latitudes.[1] All earlier approaches remained without basis without the assumption of vacant niches, as there is no evidence that niches are generally narrower in the tropics, i.e., an accumulation of species cannot be explained by subdivision of previously utilized niches (see also Rapoport's rule). The hypothesis, in contrast to most other hypotheses attempting to explain latitudinal or other gradients in diversity, does not rely on the assumption that different latitudes or habitats generally have different "ceilings" for species numbers, which are higher in the tropics than in cold environments. Such different ceilings are thought to be, for example, determined by heterogeneity or area of the habitat. But such factors, although not setting ceilings, may well modulate the gradients.