2007 Valencian regional election
Election in the Spanish region of the Valencian Community
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A regional election was held in the Valencian Community on 27 May 2007 to elect the 7th Corts of the autonomous community. All 99 seats in the Corts were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
_(Recortada).jpg)
2.0%
1.4 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 May 2007
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All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes 50 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 3,491,365 2.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 2,448,830 (70.1%) 1.4 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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As in the three previous elections, the People's Party (PP) with an increased absolute majority of seats, as well as winning an absolute majority of votes, the first and only time to date the party has reached this threshold, and only the second time since 1983 that any party has achieved this feat. The PP increased its vote share by more than 5% and gained six of the additional ten seats in the parliament, enlarged as a result of 2006 amendments to the regional Statute of Autonomy, all but ensuring incumbent president Francisco Camps's re-election for a second term in office. The Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) gained three seats despite seeing its vote share decrease by one point. This came as a result of the enlarged parliament, but the new election defeat and the below-expectations result for the party led to PSPV leader Joan Ignasi Pla to announce that he would step down as party secretary-general in the next congress.
The Valencian Nationalist Bloc (Bloc), whose performance in the previous election brought it within 0.3% of reaching the five percent threshold, had formed an electoral alliance with United Left of the Valencian Country (EUPV) under the name Commitment for the Valencian Country (CPV). This combined list, which also included smaller Green and left-wing groups, saw the Bloc gain its first seat representation in the Corts, though the combined vote for both EUPV and Bloc was considerably lesser than what both had polled separately in 2003.
Overview
Under the 1982 Statute of Autonomy, the Corts Valencianes were the unicameral legislature of the Valencian Community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[2]
Date
The term of the Corts Valencianes expired four years after the date of their previous election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years.[3] The election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV).[4] The previous election was held on 25 May 2003, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 27 May 2007.
The Corts Valencianes could not be dissolved before the expiration date of parliament, except in the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, after which they were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[5] Amendments in 2006 would allow the term of the Corts to expire after an early dissolution, but these were to take effect after the 2007 election.[6]
The Corts Valencianes were officially dissolved on 3 April 2007 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the DOGV, setting election day for 27 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 14 June.[7]
Electoral system
Voting for the Corts was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[8]
The Corts Valencianes had a minimum of 99 seats, with the electoral law fixing its size at that number. All were elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 distributed in proportion to population (with the seat-to-population ratio in any given province not exceeding three times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.[9]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Corts constituency was entitled the following seats:[10]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[11]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[12]
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[14] Amendments earlier in 2007 required a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[15]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
|
Francisco Camps | Conservatism Christian democracy |
47.2% | 48 |  |
[16] [17] [18] | |
| PSPV–PSOE | List
|
.jpg) |
Joan Ignasi Pla | Social democracy | 36.0% | 35 |  |
[19] [20] [21] | |
| Compromís PV | List |
.jpg) |
Glòria Marcos | Valencian nationalism Eco-socialism Green politics |
11.0% [a] |
6 | |
[22] [23] [24] | |
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes (45 in the 2003 election).
- Color key:
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
CVa |  |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 regional election | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 70.1 | 52.5 54 |
34.5 38 |
[c] | [c] | 0.9 0 |
0.7 0 |
8.0 7 |
18.0 |
| Ipsos/RTVE[p 1] | 27 May 2007 | ? | ? | ? 50/53 |
? 37/40 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | ? 7/9 |
? |
| UV/FSP[p 2][p 3] | 18 May 2007 | ? | ? | ? 45/49 |
? 41/45 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | ? 8/10 |
? |
| Opina/El País[p 4][p 5] | 14–17 May 2007 | ? | ? | 50.0 51/52 |
38.0 39 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | 9.5 8/9 |
12.0 |
| Grup Marest/Levante-EMV[p 6][p 7] | 10–16 May 2007 | 2,000 | 73.3 | 44.5 48 |
37.6 40 |
[c] | [c] | 2.2 0 |
2.6 0 |
11.5 11 |
6.9 |
| Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 8][p 9] | 9–15 May 2007 | ? | ? | 48.8 52/53 |
37.1 38/39 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | 8.4 8/9 |
11.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[p 10][p 11][p 12] | 13 May 2007 | 1,000 | ? | 51.6 54 |
37.5 38 |
[c] | [c] | – | 0.6 0 |
8.6 7 |
14.1 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 13] | 10 May 2007 | ? | ? | ? 50/52 |
? 37/39 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | ? 9/10 |
? |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 14][p 15][p 16] | 27 Apr–8 May 2007 | 900 | ? | 49.4 50/53 |
36.8 38/41 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | 8.9 8 |
12.6 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[p 17] | 2–7 May 2007 | 800 | ? | 50.5 52/54 |
35.1 35/37 |
[c] | [c] | 2.2 0 |
– | 10.4 9/11 |
15.4 |
| CIS[p 18][p 19] | 9 Apr–6 May 2007 | 1,797 | ? | 49.8 53 |
36.0 38 |
[c] | [c] | 3.3 0 |
– | 8.2 8 |
13.8 |
| PP[p 20] | 8 Apr 2007 | 1,200 | ? | ? 55/57 |
? 35/36 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | ? 7/8 |
? |
| Grup Marest/Levante-EMV[p 21] | 28 Mar–5 Apr 2007 | 2,000 | 73.3 | 45.2 49 |
37.4 39 |
[c] | [c] | 2.0 0 |
2.0 0 |
12.2 11 |
7.8 |
| Metroscopia/ABC[p 22] | 12 Feb 2007 | ? | 70 | 51.4 55 |
34.7 36 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | 8.4 8 |
16.7 |
| PP[p 23][p 24] | 12–20 Jan 2007 | 1,200 | ? | 50.2 55 |
34.9 36 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | 10.6 8 |
15.3 |
| Grup Marest/Levante-EMV[p 25][p 26] | 2–17 Jan 2007 | 2,000 | 72.0 | 44.7 46 42 |
38.2 41 37 |
[c] | [c] | 1.5 0 0 |
– | 12.6 12 10 |
6.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 27][p 28][p 29] | 16–24 Nov 2006 | ? | ? | 49.1 53/56 48/50 |
35.3 37/40 34/36 |
6.6 6 5 |
4.1 0 0 |
– | – | – | 13.8 |
| PP[p 30] | 23 Nov 2006 | ? | ? | 50.0 | 35.0 | – | – | – | – | – | 15.0 |
| Opina/El País[p 31][p 32] | 2–3 Oct 2006 | 1,200 | ? | 49.3 | 36.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | – | – | 12.9 |
| PSPV[p 33][p 34] | 18–25 Sep 2006 | 2,000 | 75 | 46.6 47/48 |
40.5 42/44 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | 8.6 8/9 |
6.1 |
| 75 | 46.1 49/50 |
39.4 44/45 |
5.9 5 |
4.8 0 |
– | – | – | 6.7 | |||
| Astel/PP[p 35][p 36] | 8–13 Sep 2006 | 1,014 | 73 | 49.8 55 |
35.4 38 |
6.9 6 |
4.5 0 |
2.1 0 |
– | – | 14.4 |
| PSPV[p 37][p 38] | 13 Jul 2006 | ? | ? | 47.0 | 36.0 | – | – | – | – | – | 11.0 |
| Grup Marest/Levante-EMV[p 39] | 23 May–1 Jun 2006 | 2,000 | ? | 45.4 48 |
38.9 41 |
[c] | [c] | 1.4 0 |
– | 11.3 10 |
6.5 |
| ? | 45.4 50 |
38.9 43 |
6.4 6 |
4.9 0 |
1.4 0 |
– | – | 6.5 | |||
| Opimarco/PSPV[p 40] | 24 Apr–10 May 2006 | 750 | ? | 46.6 49 |
39.6 41 |
[c] | [c] | 1.6 0 |
– | 10.1 9 |
7.0 |
| ? | 46.6 51 |
39.6 43 |
5.5 5 |
4.6 0 |
1.6 0 |
– | – | 7.0 | |||
| Betaconsulting/PP[p 41][p 42] | 28 Mar–8 Apr 2006 | 1,000 | 73 | 49.6 55 |
36.0 38 |
6.6 6 |
3.7 0 |
– | – | – | 13.6 |
| KMC/El Boletín[p 43] | 6 Mar 2006 | ? | ? | 49.2 | 36.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | – | 12.7 |
| Opimarco/PSPV[p 44] | 1–15 Dec 2005 | 750 | ? | 46.7 48/49 |
38.3 41/43 |
[c] | [c] | 2.2 | – | 10.0 9/10 |
8.4 |
| ? | 46.7 49/50 |
38.3 43/44 |
5.6 6 |
4.4 0 |
2.2 0 |
– | – | 8.4 | |||
| KMC/El Boletín[p 45] | 21 Nov 2005 | ? | ? | 49.4 | 35.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | – | 14.4 |
| PP[p 46] | 17 Nov 2005 | ? | ? | ? 51 |
? 32 |
? 6 |
– | – | – | – | ? |
| Opina/El País[p 32][p 47] | 9 Oct 2005 | ? | ? | 48.0 | 36.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | – | – | 11.4 |
| PP[p 48][p 49] | 12 Mar 2005 | ? | ? | ? 49 |
? 36 |
? 4 |
– | – | – | – | ? |
| 2004 EP election | 13 Jun 2004 | N/a | 50.5 | 49.7 (48) |
42.2 (41) |
3.3 (0) |
1.1 (0) |
0.5 (0) |
– | – | 7.5 |
| 2004 general election | 14 Mar 2004 | N/a | 77.7 | 46.8 (47) |
42.4 (42) |
4.7 (0) |
1.5 (0) |
– | – | – | 4.4 |
| 2003 regional election | 25 May 2003 | N/a | 71.5 | 47.2 48 |
36.0 35 |
6.4 6 |
4.7 0 |
3.0 0 |
– | – | 11.2 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 regional election[d] | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 37.1 | 24.4 | [c] | [c] | 0.7 | 5.7 | N/a | 29.1 | 12.7 |
| CIS[p 18] | 9 Apr–6 May 2007 | 1,797 | 35.9 | 24.0 | [c] | [c] | 0.7 | 5.3 | 25.3 | 6.1 | 11.9 |
| 2004 EP election[d] | 13 Jun 2004 | N/a | 25.4 | 21.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | N/a | 49.0 | 4.0 |
| 2004 general election[d] | 14 Mar 2004 | N/a | 36.7 | 33.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | – | – | N/a | 21.2 | 3.5 |
| 2003 regional election[d] | 25 May 2003 | N/a | 33.9 | 25.8 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | – | N/a | 27.7 | 8.1 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
 |
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camps PP |
Pla PSPV |
Marcos EUPV |
Miralles UV | ||||||
| Opina/Cadena SER[p 11] | 13 May 2007 | 1,000 | 45.6 | 29.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 15.2 | 16.6 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[p 50] | 2–7 May 2007 | 800 | 51.0 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 34.0 |
| CIS[p 18] | 9 Apr–6 May 2007 | 1,797 | 46.7 | 24.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 22.2 | 22.1 |
Predicted President
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president of the Valencian Government.
Results
Overall
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 1,277,458 | 52.52 | +5.35 | 54 | +6 | |
| Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) | 838,987 | 34.49 | −1.47 | 38 | +3 | |
| Commitment for the Valencian Country (Compromís PV)1 | 195,116 | 8.02 | −3.02 | 7 | +1 | |
| Valencian Union–The Eco-pacifist Greens (UV–LVEP) | 22,789 | 0.94 | −2.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Valencian Coalition (CVa) | 17,331 | 0.71 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Republican Left of the Valencian Country (ERPV) | 11,686 | 0.48 | +0.17 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Social Democratic Party (PSD) | 10,187 | 0.42 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spain 2000 (E–2000) | 5,934 | 0.24 | +0.13 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 4,088 | 0.17 | +0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
| United for Valencia (UxV) | 2,559 | 0.11 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Authentic Phalanx (FA) | 2,493 | 0.10 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Humanist Party (PH) | 2,039 | 0.08 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Movement for People's Unity–Republicans (MUP–R) | 1,531 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Liberal Centre (CL) | 1,511 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Renewal Liberal Centre (CLR) | 1,461 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) | 1,018 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL) | 785 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| National Democracy (DN) | 706 | 0.03 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Liberal Centrist Union (UCL) | 427 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 34,348 | 1.41 | −0.14 | |||
| Total | 2,432,454 | 99 | +10 | |||
| Valid votes | 2,432,454 | 99.33 | −0.02 | |||
| Invalid votes | 16,376 | 0.67 | +0.02 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 2,448,830 | 70.14 | −1.37 | |||
| Abstentions | 1,042,535 | 29.86 | +1.37 | |||
| Registered voters | 3,491,365 | |||||
| Sources[12][25][26][27] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||
Distribution by constituency
Aftermath
Government formation
| Investiture Nomination of Francisco Camps (PP) | ||
| Ballot → | 25 June 2007 | |
|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 50 out of 99  | |
Yes
|
54 / 99 | |
No
|
44 / 99 | |
| Abstentions | 0 / 99 | |
| Absentees | 0 / 99 | |
| Sources[12] | ||