Electorate opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election
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Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling prior to the 2016 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.
New South Wales
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | IND | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Reid (NSW)[1] | 52% | 48% | −1.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Macarthur (NSW)[1] | 50% | 50% | −3.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[1] | 51% | 49% | −2.0 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Gilmore (NSW)[1] | 51% | 49% | −2.8 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Dobell (NSW)[1] | 51% | 49% | +1.2 | Notional marginal ALP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Banks (NSW)[1] | 52% | 48% | −0.8 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 24 Jun 2016 | Cowper (NSW)[2] | 50% | 50% | −13.2 | Safe L/NP | 628 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Eden-Monaro (NSW)[3] | 45% | 55% | −7.9 | Marginal L/NP | 636 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Dobell (NSW)[3] | 47% | 53% | −2.8 | Notional marginal ALP | 616 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Gilmore (NSW)[3] | 47% | 53% | −6.8 | Marginal L/NP | 632 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[3] | 46% | 54% | −7.0 | Marginal L/NP | 610 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Macquarie (NSW)[3] | 46% | 54% | −8.5 | Marginal L/NP | 636 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Page (NSW)[3] | 46% | 54% | −7.1 | Marginal L/NP | 647 | |
| 21 Jun 2016 | Eden-Monaro (NSW)[4] | 45% | 55% | −7.9 | Marginal L/NP | 719 | |
| 21 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[4] | 51% | 49% | −4.0 | Marginal L/NP | 656 | |
| 21 Jun 2016 | Page (NSW)[4] | 48% | 52% | −5.1 | Marginal L/NP | 788 | |
| 20 Jun 2016 | New England (NSW)[5] | 51% | 49% | −18.5 | Safe L/NP | 523 | |
| 18 Jun 2016 | Robertson (NSW)[6] | 47% | 53% | −6.1 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 18 Jun 2016 | Paterson (NSW)[6] | 43% | 57% | −6.7 | Notional marginal ALP | ? | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[7] | 53% | 47% | 0.0 | Marginal L/NP | 502 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Robertson (NSW)[7] | 51% | 49% | −2.1 | Marginal L/NP | 537 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Macarthur (NSW)[7] | 50% | 50% | −3.3 | Marginal L/NP | 509 | |
| 15 Jun 2016 | Cowper (NSW)[8] | 53.8% | 46.2% | −9.4 | Safe L/NP | 842 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Dobell (NSW)[9] | 49% | 51% | −0.8 | Notional marginal ALP | 628 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[9] | 54% | 46% | +1.0 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 31 May 2016 | Wentworth (NSW)[10] | 58% | 42% | −10.9 | Safe L/NP | 626 | |
| 19 May 2016 | Macarthur (NSW)[11] | 49% | 51% | −4.4 | Marginal L/NP | 628 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Macarthur (NSW)[12] | 49% | 51% | −4.3 | Marginal L/NP | 514 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Banks (NSW)[13] | 50% | 50% | −2.8 | Marginal L/NP | 501 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Dobell (NSW)[13] | 50% | 50% | +0.2 | Notional marginal ALP | 504 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[13] | 54% | 46% | +1.0 | Marginal L/NP | 554 | |
Victoria
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | GRN | IND | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Dunkley (Vic)[14] | 53% | 47% | −2.6 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Corangamite (Vic)[14] | 53% | 47% | −0.9 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Bruce (Vic)[14] | 48% | 52% | −0.2 | Marginal ALP | ? | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | McEwen (Vic)[14] | 48% | 52% | −1.8 | Marginal ALP | ? | ||
| 20 Jun 2016 | Batman (Vic)[15] | 45% | 55% | N/A | Safe ALP | 1100 | ||
| 17 Jun 2016 | Batman (Vic)[7] | 53% | 47% | N/A | Safe ALP | ? | ||
| 17 Jun 2016 | Corangamite (Vic)[7] | 51% | 49% | −2.9 | Marginal L/NP | 509 | ||
| 17 Jun 2016 | Dunkley (Vic)[7] | 52% | 48% | −3.6 | Marginal L/NP | 500 | ||
| 13 Jun 2016 | Menzies (Vic)[4] | 61% | 39% | −3.4 | Safe L/NP | 719 | ||
| 11 Jun 2016 | Corangamite (Vic)[9] | 51% | 49% | −2.9 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 11 Jun 2016 | Deakin (Vic)[9] | 52% | 48% | −1.2 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 3–4 Jun 2016 | Higgins (Vic)[16] | 53% | 47% | −6.9 | Fairly safe L/NP | 1118 | ||
| 26 May 2016 | Corangamite (Vic)[17] | 54% | 46% | +0.1 | Marginal L/NP | 770 | ||
| 13 May 2016 | Dunkley (Vic)[18] | 48% | 52% | −7.6 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
Queensland
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | KAP | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Kennedy (Qld)[14] | 42% | 58% | −5.8 | Marginal KAP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Longman (Qld)[14] | 53% | 47% | −3.9 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Brisbane (Qld)[14] | 52% | 48% | −2.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Petrie (Qld)[14] | 46% | 54% | −4.5 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Capricornia (Qld)[14] | 49% | 51% | −1.8 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Griffith (Qld)[14] | 47% | 53% | 0.0 | Marginal ALP | ? | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Herbert (Qld)[7] | 54% | 46% | −2.2 | Fairly safe L/NP | 505 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Capricornia (Qld)[7] | 50% | 50% | −0.8 | Marginal L/NP | 529 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Brisbane (Qld)[7] | 51% | 49% | −3.3 | Marginal L/NP | 594 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Bonner (Qld)[9] | 56% | 44% | +2.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 2 Jun 2016 | Longman (Qld)[19] | 50% | 50% | −6.9 | Fairly safe L/NP | 836 | |
Western Australia
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 18 Jun 2016 | Pearce (WA)[6] | 51% | 49% | −8.3 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? |
| 18 Jun 2016 | Hasluck (WA)[6] | 50% | 50% | −6.0 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Burt (WA)[7] | 48% | 52% | −8.1 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? |
| 16 Jun 2016 | Hasluck (WA)[20] | 53% | 47% | −3.0 | Fairly safe L/NP | 753 |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Cowan (WA)[9] | 50% | 50% | −4.5 | Marginal L/NP | ? |
| 10 May 2016 | Cowan (WA)[21] | 49% | 51% | −5.5 | Marginal L/NP | 731 |
South Australia
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | NXT | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 29 Jun 2016 | Adelaide (SA)[22] | 47% | 53% | +0.9 | Marginal ALP | 518 | |
| 29 Jun 2016 | Port Adelaide (SA)[22] | 33% | 67% | −3.0 | Safe ALP | 500+ | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Hindmarsh (SA)[14] | 50% | 50% | −1.9 | Marginal L/NP | 500+ | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Boothby (SA)[14] | 53% | 47% | −4.1 | Fairly safe L/NP | 500+ | |
| 20 Jun 2016 | Barker (SA)[23] | 48% | 52% | −18.6 | Safe L/NP | 869 | |
| 20 Jun 2016 | Adelaide (SA)[24] | 51% | 49% | +4.9 | Marginal ALP | 364 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Sturt (SA)[25] | 58% | 42% | −2.1 | Safe L/NP | 596 | |
| 16 Jun 2016 | Mayo (SA)[7] | 48% | 52% | −14.5 | Safe L/NP | 681 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Mayo (SA)[9] | 45.7% | 54.3% | −16.8 | Safe L/NP | ? | |
| 9 Jun 2016 | Grey (SA)[26] | 46% | 54% | −17.5 | Safe L/NP | 665 | |
| 22 May 2016 | Sturt (SA)[13] | 51% | 49% | −9.1 | Safe L/NP | 762 | |
| 16 May 2016 | Mayo (SA)[13] | 48.5% | 51.5% | −14.0 | Safe L/NP | 681 | |
Tasmania
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | IND | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Bass (Tas)[1] | 50% | 50% | −4.0 | Marginal L/NP | 538 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Braddon (Tas)[1] | 50% | 50% | −2.6 | Marginal L/NP | 566 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Denison (Tas)[1] | 35% | 63% | N/A | Safe IND | 552 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Franklin (Tas)[1] | 41% | 59% | −3.9 | Marginal ALP | 550 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Lyons (Tas)[1] | 45% | 55% | −6.2 | Marginal L/NP | 540 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Bass (Tas)[7] | 52% | 48% | −2.0 | Marginal L/NP | 517 | |
| 31 May 2016 | Bass (Tas)[27] | 49% | 51% | −5.0 | Marginal L/NP | 824 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Denison (Tas)[28] | 34% | 66% | N/A | Safe IND | 596 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Bass (Tas)[29] | 51% | 49% | −3.0 | Marginal L/NP | 632 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Lyons (Tas)[29] | 51% | 49% | −0.2 | Marginal L/NP | 602 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Franklin (Tas)[29] | 46% | 54% | +1.1 | Marginal ALP | 597 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Braddon (Tas)[29] | 53% | 47% | +0.4 | Marginal L/NP | 592 | |
Northern Territory
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 22−23 Jun 2016 | Solomon (NT)[30] | 39% | 61% | −12.4 | Marginal L/NP | 513 |