Electorate opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election

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Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling prior to the 2016 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.

New South Wales

More information Date, Seat ...
Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP IND L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
25 Jun 2016 Reid (NSW)[1] 52% 48% −1.3 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Macarthur (NSW)[1] 50% 50% −3.3 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[1] 51% 49% −2.0 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Gilmore (NSW)[1] 51% 49% −2.8 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Dobell (NSW)[1] 51% 49% +1.2 Notional marginal ALP ?
25 Jun 2016 Banks (NSW)[1] 52% 48% −0.8 Marginal L/NP ?
24 Jun 2016 Cowper (NSW)[2] 50% 50% −13.2 Safe L/NP 628
23 Jun 2016 Eden-Monaro (NSW)[3] 45% 55% −7.9 Marginal L/NP 636
23 Jun 2016 Dobell (NSW)[3] 47% 53% −2.8 Notional marginal ALP 616
23 Jun 2016 Gilmore (NSW)[3] 47% 53% −6.8 Marginal L/NP 632
23 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[3] 46% 54% −7.0 Marginal L/NP 610
23 Jun 2016 Macquarie (NSW)[3] 46% 54% −8.5 Marginal L/NP 636
23 Jun 2016 Page (NSW)[3] 46% 54% −7.1 Marginal L/NP 647
21 Jun 2016 Eden-Monaro (NSW)[4] 45% 55% −7.9 Marginal L/NP 719
21 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[4] 51% 49% −4.0 Marginal L/NP 656
21 Jun 2016 Page (NSW)[4] 48% 52% −5.1 Marginal L/NP 788
20 Jun 2016 New England (NSW)[5] 51% 49% −18.5 Safe L/NP 523
18 Jun 2016 Robertson (NSW)[6] 47% 53% −6.1 Marginal L/NP ?
18 Jun 2016 Paterson (NSW)[6] 43% 57% −6.7 Notional marginal ALP ?
17 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[7] 53% 47% 0.0 Marginal L/NP 502
17 Jun 2016 Robertson (NSW)[7] 51% 49% −2.1 Marginal L/NP 537
17 Jun 2016 Macarthur (NSW)[7] 50% 50% −3.3 Marginal L/NP 509
15 Jun 2016 Cowper (NSW)[8] 53.8% 46.2% −9.4 Safe L/NP 842
11 Jun 2016 Dobell (NSW)[9] 49% 51% −0.8 Notional marginal ALP 628
11 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[9] 54% 46% +1.0 Marginal L/NP ?
31 May 2016 Wentworth (NSW)[10] 58% 42% −10.9 Safe L/NP 626
19 May 2016 Macarthur (NSW)[11] 49% 51% −4.4 Marginal L/NP 628
14 May 2016 Macarthur (NSW)[12] 49% 51% −4.3 Marginal L/NP 514
14 May 2016 Banks (NSW)[13] 50% 50% −2.8 Marginal L/NP 501
14 May 2016 Dobell (NSW)[13] 50% 50% +0.2 Notional marginal ALP 504
14 May 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[13] 54% 46% +1.0 Marginal L/NP 554
Close

Victoria

More information Date, Seat ...
Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP GRN IND L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
25 Jun 2016 Dunkley (Vic)[14] 53% 47% −2.6 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Corangamite (Vic)[14] 53% 47% −0.9 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Bruce (Vic)[14] 48% 52% −0.2 Marginal ALP ?
25 Jun 2016 McEwen (Vic)[14] 48% 52% −1.8 Marginal ALP ?
20 Jun 2016 Batman (Vic)[15] 45% 55% N/A Safe ALP 1100
17 Jun 2016 Batman (Vic)[7] 53% 47% N/A Safe ALP ?
17 Jun 2016 Corangamite (Vic)[7] 51% 49% −2.9 Marginal L/NP 509
17 Jun 2016 Dunkley (Vic)[7] 52% 48% −3.6 Marginal L/NP 500
13 Jun 2016 Menzies (Vic)[4] 61% 39% −3.4 Safe L/NP 719
11 Jun 2016 Corangamite (Vic)[9] 51% 49% −2.9 Marginal L/NP ?
11 Jun 2016 Deakin (Vic)[9] 52% 48% −1.2 Marginal L/NP ?
3–4 Jun 2016 Higgins (Vic)[16] 53% 47% −6.9 Fairly safe L/NP 1118
26 May 2016 Corangamite (Vic)[17] 54% 46% +0.1 Marginal L/NP 770
13 May 2016 Dunkley (Vic)[18] 48% 52% −7.6 Marginal L/NP ?
Close

Queensland

More information Date, Seat ...
Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP KAP L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
25 Jun 2016 Kennedy (Qld)[14] 42% 58% −5.8 Marginal KAP ?
25 Jun 2016 Longman (Qld)[14] 53% 47% −3.9 Fairly safe L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Brisbane (Qld)[14] 52% 48% −2.3 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Petrie (Qld)[14] 46% 54% −4.5 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Capricornia (Qld)[14] 49% 51% −1.8 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Griffith (Qld)[14] 47% 53% 0.0 Marginal ALP ?
17 Jun 2016 Herbert (Qld)[7] 54% 46% −2.2 Fairly safe L/NP 505
17 Jun 2016 Capricornia (Qld)[7] 50% 50% −0.8 Marginal L/NP 529
17 Jun 2016 Brisbane (Qld)[7] 51% 49% −3.3 Marginal L/NP 594
11 Jun 2016 Bonner (Qld)[9] 56% 44% +2.3 Marginal L/NP ?
2 Jun 2016 Longman (Qld)[19] 50% 50% −6.9 Fairly safe L/NP 836
Close

Western Australia

More information Date, Seat ...
Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
18 Jun 2016 Pearce (WA)[6] 51% 49% −8.3 Fairly safe L/NP ?
18 Jun 2016 Hasluck (WA)[6] 50% 50% −6.0 Fairly safe L/NP ?
17 Jun 2016 Burt (WA)[7] 48% 52% −8.1 Fairly safe L/NP ?
16 Jun 2016 Hasluck (WA)[20] 53% 47% −3.0 Fairly safe L/NP 753
11 Jun 2016 Cowan (WA)[9] 50% 50% −4.5 Marginal L/NP ?
10 May 2016 Cowan (WA)[21] 49% 51% −5.5 Marginal L/NP 731
Close

South Australia

More information Date, Seat ...
Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP NXT L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
29 Jun 2016 Adelaide (SA)[22] 47% 53% +0.9 Marginal ALP 518
29 Jun 2016 Port Adelaide (SA)[22] 33% 67% −3.0 Safe ALP 500+
25 Jun 2016 Hindmarsh (SA)[14] 50% 50% −1.9 Marginal L/NP 500+
25 Jun 2016 Boothby (SA)[14] 53% 47% −4.1 Fairly safe L/NP 500+
20 Jun 2016 Barker (SA)[23] 48% 52% −18.6 Safe L/NP 869
20 Jun 2016 Adelaide (SA)[24] 51% 49% +4.9 Marginal ALP 364
17 Jun 2016 Sturt (SA)[25] 58% 42% −2.1 Safe L/NP 596
16 Jun 2016 Mayo (SA)[7] 48% 52% −14.5 Safe L/NP 681
11 Jun 2016 Mayo (SA)[9] 45.7% 54.3% −16.8 Safe L/NP ?
9 Jun 2016 Grey (SA)[26] 46% 54% −17.5 Safe L/NP 665
22 May 2016 Sturt (SA)[13] 51% 49% −9.1 Safe L/NP 762
16 May 2016 Mayo (SA)[13] 48.5% 51.5% −14.0 Safe L/NP 681
Close

Tasmania

More information Date, Seat ...
Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP IND L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
25 Jun 2016 Bass (Tas)[1] 50% 50% −4.0 Marginal L/NP 538
25 Jun 2016 Braddon (Tas)[1] 50% 50% −2.6 Marginal L/NP 566
25 Jun 2016 Denison (Tas)[1] 35% 63% N/A Safe IND 552
25 Jun 2016 Franklin (Tas)[1] 41% 59% −3.9 Marginal ALP 550
25 Jun 2016 Lyons (Tas)[1] 45% 55% −6.2 Marginal L/NP 540
17 Jun 2016 Bass (Tas)[7] 52% 48% −2.0 Marginal L/NP 517
31 May 2016 Bass (Tas)[27] 49% 51% −5.0 Marginal L/NP 824
15 May 2016 Denison (Tas)[28] 34% 66% N/A Safe IND 596
15 May 2016 Bass (Tas)[29] 51% 49% −3.0 Marginal L/NP 632
15 May 2016 Lyons (Tas)[29] 51% 49% −0.2 Marginal L/NP 602
15 May 2016 Franklin (Tas)[29] 46% 54% +1.1 Marginal ALP 597
15 May 2016 Braddon (Tas)[29] 53% 47% +0.4 Marginal L/NP 592
Close

Northern Territory

More information Date, Seat ...
Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
22−23 Jun 2016 Solomon (NT)[30] 39% 61% −12.4 Marginal L/NP 513
Close

References

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