2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico
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The 2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a sixth term and this was the first open seat since 1928 at this seat.[1] Democratic U.S. Representative Martin Heinrich won the open seat.
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November 6, 2012
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  Heinrich: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Wilson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
Incumbent Jeff Bingaman won re-election to a fifth term with 70.61% of the vote against Allen McCulloch in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in New Mexico.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Hector Balderas, state auditor[2]
- Martin Heinrich, U.S. Representative[3]
Withdrew
- Martin Chávez, former Albuquerque mayor and 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee (withdrew to run for U.S. House)[4][5]
- Andres Valdez, anti-police brutality social justice activist[6]
Declined
- Jeff Bingaman, incumbent U.S. senator[1]
- Diane Denish, former New Mexico lieutenant governor and 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nominee[7][8]
- Ben Ray Luján, U.S. representative[9]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Hector Balderas |
Martin Heinrich |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[10] | June 23–26, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 24% | 47% | — | 29% |
| Magellan Strategies[11] | July 17–18, 2011 | 636 | ± 3.9% | 21% | 54% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | December 10–12, 2011 | 309 | ± 5.6% | 30% | 47% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[13] | April 19–22, 2012 | 270 | ± 6% | 27% | 51% | — | 22% |
| Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling[14] | May 21–24, 2012 | 741 | ± 3.6% | 26% | 51% | — | 23% |
Endorsements
Martin Heinrich
Federal officials
State officials
- Patricia Madrid, former Attorney General
New Mexico state senators
New Mexico state representatives
- Eliseo Alcon
- Eleanor Chavez
- Joni Guiterrez
- Bill O'Neill
- Danice Picraux
- Jeff Steinborn
- Mimi Stewart
- J. Paul Taylor
New Mexico Mayors
- David Coss, Mayor of Santa Fe[16]
- Joe Maestas, former Mayor of Española[16]
- Bob Rosebrough, former Mayor of Gallup[16]
Unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees[17]
- International Association of Machinists[17]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters[17]
- New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council[17]
- New Mexico Communication Workers for America[17]
- Service Employees International Union[17]
- United Food and Commercial Workers[17]
- United Steelworkers of America[17]
- United Transportation Union[17]
Organizations
Hector Balderas
State officials
- Diane Denish, former New Mexico Lieutenant Governor[20]
New Mexico state senators
- Carlos Cisneros[20]
- Phil Griego[20]
- Richard Martinez[20]
- Cynthia Nava[20]
- Mary Kay Papen[20]
- Bernadette Sanchez[20]
- David Ulibarri[20]
New Mexico state representatives
- Joseph Cervantes[20]
- Mary Helen Garcia[20]
- Miguel Garcia[20]
- Thomas Garcia[20]
- Antonio Lujan[20]
- Jim Trujillo[20]
- Lucky Varela[20]
New Mexico Mayors
Results
Heinrich
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Balderas
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Martin Heinrich | 83,432 | 58.9 | |
| Democratic | Hector Balderas | 58,128 | 41.1 | |
| Total votes | 141,560 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Greg Sowards, businessman[22]
- Heather Wilson, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008[23]
Withdrew
- Bill English, businessman[24]
- John Sanchez, Lieutenant Governor of New Mexico and nominee for governor in 2002[25]
Declined
- Janice Arnold-Jones, former state representative[23]
- Gary Johnson, former governor (ran for President)[26]
- Steve Pearce, U.S. Representative, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000, and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008[27]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill English |
John Sanchez |
Greg Sowards |
Heather Wilson |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magellan Strategies[28] | April 26–27, 2011 | 801 | ± 3.5% | — | 17% | 2% | 59% | 11% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[10] | June 23–26, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 4% | 24% | 8% | 52% | — | 12% |
| Magellan Strategies[29] | July 17–18, 2011 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 2% | 21% | 5% | 56% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[30] | December 10–12, 2011 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 3% | 20% | 6% | 55% | — | 16% |
| Albuquerque Journal[31] | May 21–24, 2012 | 504 | ± 4.4% | — | — | 20% | 66% | — | 14% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill English |
Gary Johnson |
John Sanchez |
Greg Sowards |
Heather Wilson |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[30] | December 10–12, 2011 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 1% | 31% | 15% | 3% | 42% | — | 9% |
Endorsements
Heather Wilson
Federal officials
- Pete Domenici, former U.S. Senator (R-NM)[32]
- Ari Fleischer, former White House Press Secretary for George W. Bush[32]
- Manuel Lujan Jr., former U.S. Secretary of the Interior[32] and former U.S. Representative for New Mexico's 1st congressional district[32]
- Bill Redmond, former U.S. Representative for New Mexico's 3rd congressional district[32]
State officials
- John Sanchez, lieutenant governor[32]
- Jack Stahl, former lieutenant governor[32]
New Mexico state senators
- Rod Adair[32]
- Vernon Asbill[32]
- Sue Wilson Beffort[32]
- Mark Boitano[32]
- Bill Burt[32]
- Clint Harden[32]
- Stuart Ingle, Minority Leader[32]
- Gay Kernan[32]
- Carroll Leavell[32]
- Steven Neville[32]
- Bill Payne, Minority Whip[32]
- Sander Rue[32]
- John Ryan[32]
- Bill Sharer[32]
New Mexico state representatives
- Tom Anderson[32]
- Alonzo Baldonado[32]
- Paul Bandy[32]
- Don Bratton[32]
- David Chavez[32]
- Zachary Cook[32]
- Anna Crook[32]
- Bill Gray[32]
- Jim Hall[32]
- Dave Doyle[32]
- Nora Espinoza[32]
- Nate Gentry[32]
- Jimmie Hall[32]
- Conrad James[32]
- Larry Larranaga[32]
- Tim Lewis[32]
- Dianne Miller Hamilton[32]
- Cathryn Novich-Brown[32]
- Jane Powdrell-Culbert[32]
- Bill Rehm[32]
- Dennis Roch[32]
- Jim Smith[32]
- James Strickler[32]
- Tom Taylor, Minority Leader[32]
- Don Tripp[32]
- Shirley Tyler[32]
- James White[32]
- Bob Wooley[32]
New Mexico Mayors
- Richard J. Berry, Mayor of Albuquerque[32]
- Scott Eckstein, Mayor of Bloomfield and Commissioner of San Juan County[32]
- Louis Huning, former Mayor of Los Lunas[32]
- Gary Kanin, former Mayor of Corrales[32]
- Bryan Olguin, Mayor of Peralta[32]
- Tommy Roberts, Mayor of Farmington[32]
- Bill Standley, former Mayor of Farmington[32]
Results
Wilson—70–80%
Wilson—60–70%
Wilson—50–60%
Sowards—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Heather Wilson | 63,631 | 70.0 | |
| Republican | Greg Sowards | 27,214 | 30.0 | |
| Total votes | 90,845 | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Jon Barrie[33] (Independent American Party), alternative medicine practitioner and Air Force veteran[34]
- Martin Heinrich (D), U.S. Representative
- Heather Wilson (R), former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 17, 2012 - C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012 - C-SPAN
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Heinrich (D) | $3,883,992 | $2,174,712 | $1,763,753 | $89,424 |
| Heather Wilson (R) | $4,048,847 | $2,416,328 | $1,632,517 | $0 |
| Jon Barrie (I) | $705 | $1,150 | $0 | $445 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[35][36][37] | ||||
Top contributors
| Martin Heinrich | Contribution | Heather Wilson | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| League of Conservation Voters | $108,634 | Elliott Management Corporation | $29,413 |
| JStreetPAC | $67,860 | Mewbourne Oil Co | $25,000 |
| University of New Mexico | $24,221 | Kelly PAC | $15,000 |
| Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP | $23,000 | Blue Cross & Blue Shield | $14,050 |
| Council for a Livable World | $20,044 | Devon Energy | $13,250 |
| National Rural Letter Carriers' Association | $19,000 | Murray Energy | $12,800 |
| Comcast Corporation | $11,250 | Yates Petroleum | $12,600 |
| Presbyterian Healthcare Services | $11,150 | Livingston Group | $12,249 |
| Intel Corp | $10,500 | Publix Super Markets | $11,000 |
| American Optometric Association | $10,250 | Westport Construction | $10,500 |
Top industries
| Martin Heinrich | Contribution | Heather Wilson | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/Law Firms | $322,120 | Retired | $355,880 |
| Retired | $270,598 | Oil & Gas | $217,500 |
| Lobbyists | $156,480 | Leadership PACs | $206,225 |
| Environmental organizations | $145,365 | Financial Institutions | $163,888 |
| Leadership PACs | $100,000 | Lobbyists | $113,549 |
| Health Professionals | $95,729 | Lawyers/Law Firms | $106,852 |
| Pro-Israel | $83,860 | Real Estate | $95,990 |
| Public Sector Unions | $67,000 | Misc Finance | $72,407 |
| Democratic/Liberal | $64,300 | Business Services | $72,078 |
| Casinos/Gambling | $58,550 | Mining | $69,200 |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[40] | Lean D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[42] | Lean D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[43] | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martin Heinrich (D) |
Heather Wilson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[44] | February 4–6, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 39% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[45] | June 23–26, 2011 | 732 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | December 10–12, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 40% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports[46] | February 14, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 43% | 5% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[47] | April 3, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 42% | 7% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | April 19–22, 2012 | 526 | ± 4.3% | 48% | 43% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[48] | July 13–16, 2012 | 724 | ± 3.6% | 48% | 43% | — | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[47] | August 21, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 41% | 5% | 7% |
| Albuquerque Journal[49] | September 3–6, 2012 | 667 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 42% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | September 7–9, 2012 | 1,122 | ± 2.9% | 50% | 41% | — | 9% |
| We Ask America[51] | September 25–27, 2012 | 1,258 | ± 2.85% | 52% | 41% | — | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[52] | October 2–3, 2012 | 778 | ± n/a% | 51% | 41% | — | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[47] | October 8, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 52% | 39% | 4% | 5% |
| Albuquerque Poll Journal[53] | October 9–11, 2012 | 658 | ± 3.8% | 48% | 39% | 4% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | October 23–24, 2012 | 727 | ± n/a% | 52% | 44% | — | 3% |
| Albuquerque Poll Journal[55] | October 23–25, 2012 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | 3% | 6% |
Hypothetical polling
with Jeff Bingaman
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Bingaman (D) |
Gary Johnson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[44] | February 4–6, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 40% | — | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Bingaman (D) |
Steve Pearce (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[44] | February 4–6, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 57% | 34% | — | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Bingaman (D) |
Heather Wilson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[44] | February 4–6, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 56% | 37% | — | 9% |
with Hector Balderas
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Hector Balderas (D) |
Gary Johnson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[12] | December 10–12, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 44% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Hector Balderas (D) |
Greg Sowards (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[45] | June 23–26, 2011 | 732 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 28% | — | 30% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | December 10–12, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 30% | — | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | April 19–22, 2012 | 526 | ± 4.3% | 42% | 30% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Hector Balderas (D) |
Heather Wilson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[45] | June 23–26, 2011 | 732 | ± 3.6% | 45% | 39% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | December 10–12, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 43% | — | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports[46] | February 14, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 44% | 3% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[47] | April 3, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 43% | 5% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | April 19–22, 2012 | 526 | ± 4.3% | 44% | 43% | — | 12% |
with Ben Ray Luján
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján (D) |
Gary Johnson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[44] | February 4–6, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 40% | 45% | — | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján (D) |
Steve Pearce (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[44] | February 4–6, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 37% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján (D) |
Heather Wilson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[44] | February 4–6, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 40% | — | 12% |
with Martin Heinrich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martin Heinrich (D) |
Gary Johnson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[44] | February 4–6, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 43% | 44% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | December 10–12, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 43% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martin Heinrich (D) |
Steve Pearce (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[44] | February 4–6, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 38% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martin Heinrich (D) |
Greg Sowards (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[45] | June 23–26, 2011 | 732 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 34% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | December 10–12, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 31% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | April 19–22, 2012 | 526 | ± 4.3% | 48% | 34% | — | 18% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Martin Heinrich | 395,717 | 51.01% | −19.60% | |
| Republican | Heather Wilson | 351,259 | 45.28% | +15.95% | |
| Independent American | Jon Barrie | 28,199 | 3.63% | N/A | |
| Independent | Robert L. Anderson (write-in) | 617 | 0.08% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 775,792 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Chaves (largest village: Roswell)
- Curry (largest village: Clovis)
- Eddy (largest city: Carlsbad)
- Harding (largest city: Roy)
- Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg)
- Lea (largest city: Hobbs)
- Lincoln (largest city: Roidoso)
- Otero (largest city: Alamogordo)
- Quay (largest city: Tucumcari)
- Roosevelt (largest city: Portales)
- Sandoval (largest city: Rancho)
- San Juan (largest city: Farmington)
- Sierra (largest city: Truth or Consequences)
- Torrance (largest city: Moriarty)
- Union (largest city: Clayton)
- Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas)
- De Baca (largest city: Fort Sumner)
- Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos)
- Catron (largest city: Reserve)
By congressional district
Heinrich won two of three congressional districts.[57]
| District | Heinrich | Wilson | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 53.5% | 43.34% | Michelle Lujan Grisham |
| 2nd | 44.37% | 51.15% | Steve Pearce |
| 3rd | 54.15% | 42.42% | Ben Ray Luján |