Helmut Norpoth
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Helmut Norpoth | |
|---|---|
| Born | 1943 (age 82–83) |
| Alma mater | University of Michigan |
| Known for | Predicting election results |
| Scientific career | |
| Fields | Political science |
| Institutions | Stony Brook University |
| Thesis | Sources of party cohesion in the U.S. House of Representatives (1974) |
Helmut Norpoth (born 1943) is an American political scientist and professor of political science at Stony Brook University. Norpoth is best known for developing the Primary Model to predict United States presidential elections. Norpoth's model has successfully matched the results of 25 out of 29 United States presidential elections since 1912, with the exceptions being those in 1960, 2000, 2020, and 2024.
Norpoth was born in Essen, Germany, in 1943. He received his undergraduate degree from the Free University of Berlin in West Berlin in 1966. He then attended the University of Michigan, where he received his M.A. and Ph.D. in 1967 and 1974, respectively. Before joining Stony Brook University as an assistant professor in 1979, he taught at the University of Arizona (he had been a visiting lecturer in its political science department in 1978), the University of Cologne, and the University of Texas at Austin. In 1980, Norpoth was promoted to associate professor at Stony Brook University and became a tenured full professor there in 1985.[1]
Research
Norpoth's research focuses on multiple subjects in political science, including public opinion and electoral behavior, and predicting the results of elections in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany.[1] Alongside fellow political scientist Michael Lewis-Beck, he is the co-author of The American Voter Revisited, a 2008 book published by the University of Michigan Press the covering the images of presidential candidates, party identification, and why Americans turn out to vote.[2][3] He also wrote Confidence Regained: Economics, Mrs. Thatcher, and the British Voter, a 1992 book published by the University of Michigan Press about public reactions to Margaret Thatcher, especially her economic and foreign policies.[4][5] Other articles written by Norpoth include "Fighting to Win: Wartime Morale in the American Public" with Andrew H. Sidman (2012), "Yes, Prime Minister: The Key to Forecasting British Elections" with Matthew Lebo (2011), "The New Deal Realignment in Real Time" with Andrew H. Sidman and Clara Suong, "History and Primary: The Obama Re-Election" with Michael Bednarczuk, and "Guns 'N Jobs: The FDR Legacy" with Alexa Bankert.[1]
