Intelligence source and information reliability
Rating systems used in intelligence analysis
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Intelligence source and information reliability rating systems are used in intelligence analysis. This rating is used for information collected by a human intelligence collector.[1][2] This type of information collection and job duty exists within many government agencies around the world.[3][4]
According to Ewen Montagu, John Godfrey devised this system when he was director of the Naval Intelligence Division (N.I.D.) around the time of World War II.[5]
The system employed by the United States Armed Forces rates the reliability of the source as well as the information. The source reliability is rated between A (history of complete reliability) to E (history of invalid information), with F for source without sufficient history to establish reliability level. The information content is rated between 1 (confirmed) to 5 (improbable), with 6 for information whose reliability can not be evaluated.[6]
For example, a confirmed information from a reliable source has rating A1, an unknown-validity information from a new source without reputation is rated F6, an inconsistent illogical information from a known liar is E5, a confirmed information from a moderately doubtful source is C1.
The evaluation matrix as described in the Field Manual FM 2-22.3 (see also Admiralty code):[6]
Source reliability
| Rating | Description | |
|---|---|---|
| A | Reliable | No doubt about the source's authenticity, trustworthiness, or competency. History of complete reliability. |
| B | Usually reliable | Minor doubts. History of mostly valid information. |
| C | Fairly reliable | Doubts. Provided valid information in the past. |
| D | Not usually reliable | Significant doubts. Provided valid information in the past. |
| E | Unreliable | Lacks authenticity, trustworthiness, and competency. History of invalid information. |
| F | Reliability unknown | Insufficient information to evaluate reliability. May or may not be reliable. |
Information credibility
| Rating | Description | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Confirmed by independent Sources | Logical, consistent with other relevant information, confirmed by independent sources. |
| 2 | Probably true | Logical, consistent with other relevant information, not confirmed. |
| 3 | Possibly true | Reasonably logical, agrees with some relevant information, not confirmed. |
| 4 | Doubtfully True | Not logical but possible, no other information on the subject, not confirmed. |
| 5 | Improbable | Not logical, contradicted by other relevant information. |
| 6 | Difficult to say | The validity of the information can not be determined. |
