2018 Arkansas gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 Arkansas gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Arkansas, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Asa Hutchinson won re-election to a second term, winning by more than 33 percentage points and carrying all but seven counties, marking the largest winning margin of any Republican gubernatorial candidate in Arkansas history.
.jpg)
 | |||||||||||||||||
November 6, 2018
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Henderson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
Declined
- Tim Griffin, lieutenant governor and former U.S. representative (running for re-election)[5][6]
- Leslie Rutledge, attorney general (running for re-election)[1]
- John Thurston, land commissioner (running for Secretary of State)[1]
Endorsements
Asa Hutchinson
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Asa Hutchinson |
Jan Morgan |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College[10] | April 17–19, 2018 | 676 | ± 3.8% | 58% | 31% | 12% |
Results
Hutchinson
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
Morgan
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Asa Hutchinson (incumbent) | 145,251 | 69.7 | |
| Republican | Jan Morgan | 63,009 | 30.3 | |
| Total votes | 208,260 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jared Henderson, former Arkansas executive director of Teach For America[11]
- Leticia Sanders, hairdresser[12]
Declined
- Keith Ingram, Minority Leader of the Arkansas Senate[1]
- Jay Martin, former Majority Leader of the Arkansas House of Representatives[13][14]
- Kevin Smith, mayor of Helena-West Helena, Arkansas, former Majority Whip of the Arkansas Senate, former Democratic candidate in 1996 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Results
Henderson
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
Sanders
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jared Henderson | 68,340 | 63.4 | |
| Democratic | Leticia Sanders | 39,382 | 36.6 | |
| Total votes | 107,722 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
Candidates
Declined
- Bobby Bones, radio host[15][16]
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Mark West (Libertarian), pastor and nominee for AR-01 in 2016[17][18]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[19] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[20] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[21] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[22] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[24] | Safe R | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[25] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[26][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[27] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[28] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Debates
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Asa Hutchinson (R) |
Jared Henderson (D) |
Mark West (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Arkansas[31] | October 1–28, 2018 | 618 | ± 3.9% | 59% | 35% | – | 6% | – |
| Hendrix College[32] | October 18–19, 2018 | 528 | ± 4.3% | 60% | 24% | 5% | – | 11% |
| Hendrix College[33] | September 5–7, 2018 | 1,701 | ± 2.4% | 60% | 25% | 6% | – | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon[34] | March 21–24, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 63% | 24% | – | – | 13% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Asa Hutchinson (incumbent) | 582,406 | 65.33% | +9.89% | |
| Democratic | Jared Henderson | 283,218 | 31.77% | –9.72% | |
| Libertarian | Mark West | 25,885 | 2.90% | +0.98% | |
| Total votes | 891,509 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County[35] | Asa Hutchinson Republican |
Jared Henderson Democratic |
Mark West Libertarian |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Arkansas | 3,530 | 71.14% | 1,355 | 27.31% | 77 | 1.55% | 2,175 | 43.83% | 4,962 |
| Ashley | 4,278 | 69.50% | 1,751 | 28.45% | 126 | 2.05% | 2,527 | 41.06% | 6,155 |
| Baxter | 10,694 | 74.52% | 2,978 | 20.75% | 679 | 4.73% | 7,716 | 53.77% | 14,351 |
| Benton | 53,185 | 68.60% | 22,316 | 28.78% | 2,033 | 2.62% | 30,869 | 39.81% | 77,534 |
| Boone | 9,028 | 77.67% | 2,208 | 19.00% | 387 | 3.33% | 6,820 | 58.68% | 11,623 |
| Bradley | 1,906 | 66.78% | 868 | 30.41% | 80 | 2.80% | 1,038 | 36.37% | 2,854 |
| Calhoun | 1,335 | 74.54% | 423 | 23.62% | 33 | 1.84% | 912 | 50.92% | 1,791 |
| Carroll | 5,796 | 64.63% | 2,968 | 33.10% | 204 | 2.27% | 2,828 | 31.53% | 8,968 |
| Chicot | 1,638 | 46.13% | 1,857 | 52.30% | 56 | 1.58% | -219 | -6.17% | 3,551 |
| Clark | 3,988 | 59.25% | 2,611 | 38.79% | 132 | 1.96% | 1,377 | 20.46% | 6,731 |
| Clay | 3,218 | 77.88% | 782 | 18.93% | 132 | 3.19% | 2,436 | 58.95% | 4,132 |
| Cleburne | 7,856 | 81.63% | 1,495 | 15.53% | 273 | 2.84% | 6,361 | 66.10% | 9,624 |
| Cleveland | 2,020 | 78.02% | 513 | 19.81% | 56 | 2.16% | 1,507 | 58.21% | 2,589 |
| Columbia | 4,199 | 66.21% | 2,044 | 32.23% | 99 | 1.56% | 2,155 | 33.98% | 6,342 |
| Conway | 4,339 | 67.12% | 1,966 | 30.41% | 160 | 2.47% | 2,373 | 36.71% | 6,465 |
| Craighead | 17,313 | 66.39% | 7,407 | 28.40% | 1,358 | 5.21% | 9,906 | 37.99% | 26,078 |
| Crawford | 13,200 | 78.29% | 3,120 | 18.51% | 540 | 3.20% | 10,080 | 59.79% | 16,860 |
| Crittenden | 5,775 | 48.46% | 5,833 | 48.94% | 310 | 2.60% | -58 | -0.49% | 11,918 |
| Cross | 4,108 | 70.90% | 1,498 | 25.85% | 188 | 3.24% | 2,610 | 45.05% | 5,794 |
| Dallas | 1,316 | 62.22% | 773 | 36.55% | 26 | 1.23% | 543 | 25.67% | 2,115 |
| Desha | 1,833 | 52.84% | 1,560 | 44.97% | 76 | 2.19% | 273 | 7.87% | 3,469 |
| Drew | 3,658 | 67.78% | 1,606 | 29.76% | 133 | 2.46% | 2,052 | 38.02% | 5,397 |
| Faulkner | 25,643 | 66.50% | 11,689 | 30.31% | 1,227 | 3.18% | 13,954 | 36.19% | 38,559 |
| Franklin | 4,204 | 79.40% | 916 | 17.30% | 175 | 3.31% | 3,288 | 62.10% | 5,295 |
| Fulton | 2,829 | 73.83% | 900 | 23.49% | 103 | 2.69% | 1,929 | 50.34% | 3,832 |
| Garland | 21,969 | 69.16% | 8,865 | 27.91% | 933 | 2.94% | 13,104 | 41.25% | 31,767 |
| Grant | 4,524 | 81.53% | 898 | 16.18% | 127 | 2.29% | 3,626 | 65.35% | 5,549 |
| Greene | 8,275 | 75.55% | 2,088 | 19.06% | 590 | 5.39% | 6,187 | 56.49% | 10,953 |
| Hempstead | 3,312 | 66.63% | 1,554 | 31.26% | 105 | 2.11% | 1,758 | 35.37% | 4,971 |
| Hot Spring | 6,368 | 72.87% | 2,113 | 24.18% | 258 | 2.95% | 4,255 | 48.69% | 8,739 |
| Howard | 2,489 | 70.73% | 974 | 27.68% | 56 | 1.59% | 1,515 | 43.05% | 3,519 |
| Independence | 7,733 | 76.22% | 1,928 | 19.00% | 484 | 4.77% | 5,805 | 57.22% | 10,145 |
| Izard | 3,423 | 76.56% | 869 | 19.44% | 179 | 4.00% | 2,554 | 57.12% | 4,471 |
| Jackson | 2,998 | 71.88% | 1,067 | 25.58% | 106 | 2.54% | 1,931 | 46.30% | 4,171 |
| Jefferson | 9,005 | 45.43% | 10,406 | 52.50% | 409 | 2.06% | -1,401 | -7.07% | 19,820 |
| Johnson | 5,546 | 74.17% | 1,672 | 22.36% | 259 | 3.46% | 3,874 | 51.81% | 7,477 |
| Lafayette | 1,395 | 65.46% | 693 | 32.52% | 43 | 2.02% | 702 | 32.94% | 2,131 |
| Lawrence | 3,584 | 76.76% | 908 | 19.45% | 177 | 3.79% | 2,676 | 57.31% | 4,669 |
| Lee | 947 | 44.69% | 1,130 | 53.33% | 42 | 1.98% | -183 | -8.64% | 2,119 |
| Lincoln | 2,227 | 73.28% | 771 | 25.37% | 41 | 1.35% | 1,456 | 47.91% | 3,039 |
| Little River | 2,820 | 71.85% | 1,014 | 25.83% | 91 | 2.32% | 1,806 | 46.01% | 3,925 |
| Logan | 4,303 | 77.84% | 1,041 | 18.83% | 184 | 3.33% | 3,262 | 59.01% | 5,528 |
| Lonoke | 15,791 | 76.61% | 4,171 | 20.23% | 651 | 3.16% | 11,620 | 56.37% | 20,613 |
| Madison | 4,151 | 74.44% | 1,283 | 23.01% | 142 | 2.55% | 2,868 | 51.43% | 5,576 |
| Marion | 3,959 | 76.68% | 1,027 | 19.89% | 177 | 3.43% | 2,932 | 56.79% | 5,163 |
| Miller | 8,393 | 73.42% | 2,841 | 24.85% | 197 | 1.72% | 5,552 | 48.57% | 11,431 |
| Mississippi | 6,429 | 61.49% | 3,660 | 35.01% | 366 | 3.50% | 2,769 | 26.48% | 10,455 |
| Monroe | 1,493 | 56.55% | 1,104 | 41.82% | 43 | 1.63% | 389 | 14.73% | 2,640 |
| Montgomery | 2,204 | 77.85% | 558 | 19.71% | 69 | 2.44% | 1,646 | 58.14% | 2,831 |
| Nevada | 1,628 | 64.71% | 842 | 33.47% | 46 | 1.83% | 786 | 31.24% | 2,516 |
| Newton | 2,203 | 71.27% | 695 | 22.48% | 193 | 6.24% | 1,508 | 48.79% | 3,091 |
| Ouachita | 4,227 | 57.23% | 3,031 | 41.04% | 128 | 1.73% | 1,196 | 16.19% | 7,386 |
| Perry | 2,731 | 73.79% | 838 | 22.64% | 132 | 3.57% | 1,893 | 51.15% | 3,701 |
| Phillips | 2,401 | 44.10% | 2,923 | 53.69% | 120 | 2.20% | -522 | -9.59% | 5,444 |
| Pike | 2,708 | 80.64% | 563 | 16.77% | 87 | 2.59% | 2,145 | 63.88% | 3,358 |
| Poinsett | 4,690 | 76.77% | 1,194 | 19.54% | 225 | 3.68% | 3,496 | 57.23% | 6,109 |
| Polk | 4,903 | 80.96% | 904 | 14.93% | 249 | 4.11% | 3,999 | 66.03% | 6,056 |
| Pope | 13,437 | 74.83% | 3,756 | 20.92% | 763 | 4.25% | 9,681 | 53.92% | 17,956 |
| Prairie | 2,256 | 78.88% | 560 | 19.58% | 44 | 1.54% | 1,696 | 59.30% | 2,860 |
| Pulaski | 62,510 | 46.42% | 69,265 | 51.43% | 2,892 | 2.15% | -6,755 | -5.02% | 134,667 |
| Randolph | 4,285 | 75.68% | 1,063 | 18.77% | 314 | 5.55% | 3,222 | 56.91% | 5,662 |
| Saline | 30,756 | 73.97% | 9,676 | 23.27% | 1,146 | 2.76% | 21,080 | 50.70% | 41,578 |
| Scott | 2,331 | 80.97% | 390 | 13.55% | 158 | 5.49% | 1,941 | 67.42% | 2,879 |
| Searcy | 2,512 | 78.65% | 524 | 16.41% | 158 | 4.95% | 1,988 | 62.24% | 3,194 |
| Sebastian | 23,785 | 71.72% | 8,316 | 25.07% | 1,064 | 3.21% | 15,469 | 46.64% | 33,165 |
| Sevier | 2,412 | 75.33% | 682 | 21.30% | 108 | 3.37% | 1,730 | 54.03% | 3,202 |
| Sharp | 4,430 | 78.13% | 1,038 | 18.31% | 202 | 3.56% | 3,392 | 59.82% | 5,670 |
| St. Francis | 2,660 | 45.78% | 3,019 | 51.95% | 132 | 2.27% | -359 | -6.18% | 5,811 |
| Stone | 3,302 | 74.34% | 956 | 21.52% | 184 | 4.14% | 2,346 | 52.81% | 4,442 |
| Union | 8,225 | 65.79% | 4,036 | 32.28% | 241 | 1.93% | 4,189 | 33.51% | 12,502 |
| Van Buren | 4,937 | 78.41% | 1,157 | 18.38% | 202 | 3.21% | 3,780 | 60.04% | 6,296 |
| Washington | 35,967 | 54.61% | 28,051 | 42.59% | 1,845 | 2.80% | 7,916 | 12.02% | 65,863 |
| White | 17,610 | 80.07% | 3,799 | 17.27% | 584 | 2.66% | 13,811 | 62.80% | 21,993 |
| Woodruff | 1,271 | 60.93% | 760 | 36.43% | 55 | 2.64% | 511 | 24.50% | 2,086 |
| Yell | 4,002 | 75.07% | 1,108 | 20.78% | 221 | 4.15% | 2,894 | 54.29% | 5,331 |
| Totals | 582,406 | 65.33% | 283,218 | 31.77% | 25,885 | 2.90% | 299,188 | 33.56% | 891,509 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Ashley (largest city: Crossett)
- Bradley (largest city: Warren)
- Clark (largest city: Arkadelphia)
- Dallas (largest city: Fordyce)
- Desha (largest city: Dumas)
- Drew (largest city: Monticello)
- Jackson (largest city: Newport)
- Lafayette (largest city: Stamps)
- Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
- Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
- Mississippi (largest city: Osceola)
- Monroe (largest city: Clarendon)
- Nevada (largest city: Prescott)
- Ouachita (largest city: Camden)
- Pike (largest city: Glenwood)
- Woodruff (largest city: Augusta)
By congressional district
Hutchinson won all four congressional districts.[36]
| District | Hutchinson | Henderson | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69% | 27% | Rick Crawford |
| 2nd | 59% | 39% | French Hill |
| 3rd | 66% | 31% | Steve Womack |
| 4th | 69% | 28% | Bruce Westerman |
