2010 Nevada gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2010 Nevada gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the governor of Nevada, who would serve a four-year term to begin on January 3, 2011. Despite speculation that incumbent Republican governor Jim Gibbons would not run for a second term due to low approval ratings, he ran for re-election.[1][2][3] He struggled in the polls, and ultimately federal judge and former attorney general of Nevada Brian Sandoval secured the nomination. Sandoval defeated Democrat Rory Reid, son of then-current U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who won his fifth term in the Senate on the same ballot.
.jpg)
 | |||||||||||||||||
November 2, 2010
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
  Sandoval: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Reid: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Republican primary
Candidates
A total of five Republican candidates filed with the Secretary of State of Nevada and qualified for the ballot.[4]
Declared
- Tony Atwood[4]
- Jim Gibbons, incumbent governor[4][5]
- Stan Lusak, perennial candidate[4]
- Mike Montandon, Mayor of North Las Vegas[4][6]
- Brian Sandoval, former judge of the United States District Court for the District of Nevada and former Nevada Attorney General[4][7]
Withdrew
- Joe Heck, former state senator (ran for NV-03 and won)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jim Gibbons |
Mike Montandon |
Brian Sandoval |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000[8] | June 2, 2010 | — | — | 27% | 6% | 48% | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[9] | May 10–11, 2010 | — | — | 27% | 6% | 45% | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[10] | April 10, 2010 | — | — | 25% | 7% | 39% | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[11] | February 22–24, 2010 | — | — | 30% | 9% | 37% | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[12] | January 10, 2010 | — | — | 23% | 7% | 39% | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[13] | December 2009 | — | — | 18% | 6% | 39% | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[14] | October 8, 2009 | — | — | 20% | 4% | 41% | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[15] | August 21, 2009 | — | — | 17% | 3% | 33% | — |
Results
Sandoval
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
Gibbons
- <40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brian Sandoval | 97,201 | 55.53% | |
| Republican | Jim Gibbons (incumbent) | 47,616 | 27.20% | |
| Republican | Mike Montandon | 22,003 | 12.57% | |
| None of These Candidates | 4,400 | 2.51% | ||
| Republican | Tony Atwood | 2,440 | 1.39% | |
| Republican | Stan Lusak | 1,380 | 0.79% | |
| Total votes | 175,040 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Two Democratic candidates filed with the Secretary of State of Nevada and qualified for the ballot.[4]
Declared
- Frederick Conquest, anthropology professor[4]
- Rory Reid, Clark County Commissioner and son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid[4][17]
Declined
- Barbara Buckley, Speaker of the Nevada Assembly[18]
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Barbara Buckley |
Oscar Goodman |
Rory Reid |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[15] | August 21, 2009 | — | — | 25% | 34% | 13% | — |
| — | — | 43% | — | 22% | — |
Results
Reid
- Reid—70–80%
- Reid—60–70%
- Reid—50–60%
- Reid—40–50%
- Reid—<40%
Conquest
- Conquest—<40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Rory Reid | 80,162 | 70.08% | |
| None of These Candidates | 17,454 | 15.26% | ||
| Democratic | Frederick Conquest | 16,775 | 14.66% | |
| Total votes | 114,391 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[20] | Likely R | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[21] | Safe R | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[22] | Likely R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Likely R | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[24] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Sandoval (R) |
Rory Reid (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[25] | October 5, 2010 | — | — | 59% | 41% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[25] | September 28, 2010 | — | — | 49% | 40% | — | — |
| Public Opinion Strategies[26] | September 21–23, 2010 | — | — | 45% | 39% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[25] | September 21, 2010 | — | — | 49% | 35% | — | — |
| CNN/Time Magazine[27] | September 10–14, 2010 | — | — | 58% | 31% | — | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[28] | September 10–12, 2010 | — | — | 60% | 31% | — | — |
| Mason-Dixon[29] | September 9, 2010 | — | — | 52% | 36% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[25] | September 1, 2010 | 750 | ± 4% | 58% | 33% | 2% | 7% |
| Mason-Dixon[30] | August 23–25, 2010 | — | — | 53% | 31% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | August 16, 2010 | 750 | ± 4% | 52% | 36% | 3% | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon[32] | August 11, 2010 | — | — | 52% | 36% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | July 27, 2010 | 750 | ± 4% | 50% | 40% | 6% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[34] | July 16–18, 2010 | — | — | 52% | 38% | — | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[35] | July 12–14, 2010 | — | — | 47% | 36% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[36] | July 12, 2010 | 750 | ± 4% | 57% | 36% | 3% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | June 22, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 55% | 33% | 8% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[38] | June 9, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 31% | 3% | 13% |
| Research 2000[8] | June 2, 2010 | — | — | 51% | 41% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | April 27, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 53% | 35% | 12% | 3% |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[11] | April 10, 2010 | — | — | 50% | 35% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | March 31, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 55% | 34% | 6% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | March 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 53% | 35% | 7% | 5% |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[11] | February 22–24, 2010 | — | — | 51% | 29% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[40] | February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 33% | 11% | 12% |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[41] | January 10, 2010 | — | — | 53% | 31% | — | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[13] | December 4, 2009 | — | — | 49% | 35% | — | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[14] | October 8, 2009 | — | — | 50% | 33% | — | — |
Hypothetical polling
With Gibbons
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jim Gibbons (R) |
Rory Reid (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000[8] | June 2, 2010 | — | — | 31% | 52% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | April 27, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 47% | 12% | 3% |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[11] | April 10, 2010 | — | — | 40% | 42% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | March 31, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | March 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 44% | 15% | 4% |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[11] | February 22–24, 2010 | — | — | 38% | 42% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[40] | February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 44% | 13% | 8% |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[42] | December 2009 | — | — | 34% | 48% | — | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[14] | October 8, 2009 | — | — | 37% | 49% | — | — |
| Mason Dixon/LVJR[43] | August 21, 2009 | — | — | 35% | 47% | — | — |
With Montandon
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Montandon (R) |
Rory Reid (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000[8] | June 2, 2010 | — | — | 40% | 43% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | April 27, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 39% | 9% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | March 31, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 38% | 9% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | March 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 37% | 13% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[40] | February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 40% | 14% | 10% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brian Sandoval | 382,350 | 53.36% | +5.44% | |
| Democratic | Rory Reid | 298,171 | 41.61% | −2.31% | |
| None of These Candidates | 12,231 | 1.71% | −1.85% | ||
| Independent | Eugene DiSimone | 6,403 | 0.89% | +0.89% | |
| Independent American | Floyd Fitzgibbons | 5,049 | 0.70% | −2.73% | |
| Libertarian | Arthur Forest Lampitt, Jr. | 4,672 | 0.65% | +0.65% | |
| Green | David Scott Curtis | 4,437 | 0.62% | −0.54% | |
| Independent | Aaron Y. Honig | 3,216 | 0.45% | +0.45% | |
| Majority | 84,179 | 11.75% | |||
| Total votes | 716,529 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | Swing | +7.74% | |||
By county
| County | Brian Sandoval Republican |
Rory Reid Democratic |
None of These Candidates |
Eugene DiSimone Independent |
Floyd Fitzgibbons Independent American |
Arthur Forest Lampitt Jr. Libertarian |
David Scott Curtis Green |
Aaron Y. Honig Independent |
Margin | Total votes cast[44] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Carson City | 11,512 | 59.06% | 6,676 | 34.25% | 511 | 2.62% | 267 | 1.37% | 208 | 1.07% | 115 | 0.59% | 132 | 0.68% | 71 | 0.36% | 4,836 | 24.81% | 19,492 |
| Churchill | 6,586 | 74.19% | 1,697 | 19.12% | 167 | 1.88% | 117 | 1.32% | 145 | 1.63% | 60 | 0.68% | 57 | 0.64% | 48 | 0.54% | 4,889 | 55.07% | 8,877 |
| Clark | 224,751 | 48.61% | 217,113 | 46.96% | 7,008 | 1.52% | 3,598 | 0.78% | 2,347 | 0.51% | 2,837 | 0.61% | 2,547 | 0.55% | 2,171 | 0.47% | 7,638 | 1.65% | 462,372 |
| Douglas | 15,001 | 69.10% | 5,345 | 24.62% | 396 | 1.82% | 328 | 1.51% | 231 | 1.06% | 139 | 0.64% | 192 | 0.88% | 76 | 0.35% | 9,656 | 44.48% | 21,708 |
| Elko | 9,489 | 73.97% | 2,194 | 17.10% | 321 | 2.50% | 159 | 1.24% | 394 | 3.07% | 102 | 0.80% | 99 | 0.77% | 71 | 0.55% | 7,295 | 56.86% | 12,829 |
| Esmeralda | 289 | 72.61% | 48 | 12.06% | 20 | 5.03% | 6 | 1.51% | 11 | 2.76% | 12 | 3.02% | 7 | 1.76% | 5 | 1.26% | 241 | 60.55% | 398 |
| Eureka | 597 | 78.97% | 76 | 10.05% | 31 | 4.10% | 9 | 1.19% | 20 | 2.65% | 12 | 1.59% | 10 | 1.32% | 1 | 0.13% | 521 | 68.92% | 756 |
| Humboldt | 3,564 | 71.61% | 994 | 19.97% | 120 | 2.41% | 84 | 1.69% | 116 | 2.33% | 50 | 1.00% | 23 | 0.46% | 26 | 0.52% | 2,570 | 51.64% | 4,977 |
| Lander | 1,449 | 76.42% | 277 | 14.61% | 61 | 3.22% | 28 | 1.48% | 33 | 1.74% | 16 | 0.84% | 20 | 1.05% | 12 | 0.63% | 1,172 | 61.81% | 1,896 |
| Lincoln | 1,381 | 70.93% | 380 | 19.52% | 72 | 3.70% | 17 | 0.87% | 48 | 2.47% | 26 | 1.34% | 12 | 0.62% | 11 | 0.56% | 1,001 | 51.41% | 1,947 |
| Lyon | 11,937 | 68.46% | 4,331 | 24.84% | 340 | 1.95% | 226 | 1.30% | 266 | 1.53% | 113 | 0.65% | 139 | 0.80% | 85 | 0.49% | 7,606 | 43.62% | 17,437 |
| Mineral | 1,136 | 59.88% | 556 | 29.31% | 89 | 4.69% | 36 | 1.90% | 43 | 2.27% | 10 | 0.53% | 18 | 0.95% | 9 | 0.47% | 580 | 30.57% | 1,897 |
| Nye | 8,829 | 61.49% | 4,224 | 29.42% | 289 | 2.01% | 221 | 1.54% | 349 | 2.43% | 206 | 1.43% | 144 | 1.00% | 97 | 0.68% | 4,605 | 32.07% | 14,359 |
| Pershing | 1,140 | 65.86% | 396 | 22.88% | 85 | 4.91% | 32 | 1.85% | 42 | 2.43% | 10 | 0.58% | 11 | 0.64% | 15 | 0.87% | 744 | 42.98% | 1,731 |
| Storey | 1,355 | 63.70% | 615 | 28.91% | 53 | 2.49% | 35 | 1.65% | 26 | 1.22% | 14 | 0.66% | 22 | 1.03% | 7 | 0.33% | 740 | 34.79% | 2,127 |
| Washoe | 81,073 | 57.72% | 52,730 | 37.54% | 2,555 | 1.82% | 1,156 | 0.82% | 685 | 0.49% | 811 | 0.58% | 970 | 0.69% | 488 | 0.35% | 28,343 | 20.18% | 140,468 |
| White Pine | 2,261 | 69.40% | 519 | 15.93% | 113 | 3.47% | 84 | 2.58% | 85 | 2.61% | 139 | 4.27% | 34 | 1.04% | 23 | 0.71% | 1,742 | 53.47% | 3,258 |
| Totals | 382,350 | 53.36% | 298,171 | 41.61% | 12,231 | 1.71% | 6,403 | 0.89% | 5,049 | 0.70% | 4,672 | 0.65% | 4,437 | 0.62% | 3,216 | 0.45% | 84,179 | 11.75% | 716,529 |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
See also
Notes
- Only top two candidates