32nd Alberta general election
Canadian provincial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 32nd Alberta general election will elect members of the Legislative Assembly to serve in the 32nd Alberta Legislature. The Election Act requires that the election be held on October 18, 2027, but it may be called earlier.
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On or before October 18, 2027
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All 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta 44 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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In December 2024, the Electoral Boundaries Commission was mandated to propose new boundaries for 89 ridings, an increase from 87. It submitted its final report in March 2026. If the legislature implements the report before the 31st Legislature is dissolved, the election will be with these new boundaries.
Background
Date of the election
Under the fixed-date provisions of Alberta's Election Act, "election day for a general election shall be the third Monday in October in the 4th calendar year following the election day of the most recent general election".[2] As the previous election was held in 2023, the next election is scheduled for October 18, 2027. However, the Election Act is subject to the powers of the lieutenant governor of Alberta to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.
2025–2026 electoral boundary commission
The Electoral Boundaries Commission Act requires that a Commission be appointed during the first session of the Legislature following every second general election. The Commission requires a non-partisan chair, two government members recommended by the Premier, and two opposition members.
On March 28, 2025, the Electoral Boundaries Commission was established and held 30 public hearings across Alberta and received nearly 2,000 written submissions.[3] The Commission was provided with a mandate which increased the size of the Legislature from 87 to 89 seats.[3] The report recommended two additional ridings for Calgary, one additional riding in the city of Edmonton, and the modification of ridings in central and southern Alberta.[3]
A minority opinion written by two of the commission's members recommended a different set of electoral divisions, including greater use of "hybrid" ridings around Alberta cities to "improve regional representation, bridge artificial urban/rural divides and to manage population shifts."[3] This opinion was criticized by the Opposition NDP, which argued that the ruling United Conservative Party was attempting to gerrymander electoral districts to increase the power of rural votes.[3] On April 16, 2026, the government rejected the Electoral Boundaries Commission report while replacing it with expedited process overseen by a government-led committee that comes without public consultation.[4] The government is also seeking to expand the legislature to 91 seats.[4]
Incumbents not standing for re-election
| Member of the Legislative Assembly | Electoral district | Date announced | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garth Rowswell[5] | Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright | March 2, 2026 | |
| Nate Horner[6] | Drumheller-Stettler | May 20, 2026 | |
| Matt Jones | Calgary-South East | May 20, 2026 | |
| Lori Sigurdson[7] | Edmonton-Riverview | June 15, 2026 | |
| Marlin Schmidt | Edmonton-Gold Bar | June 15, 2026 | |
| Luanne Metz | Calgary-Varsity | June 15, 2026 | |
| Joe Ceci | Calgary-Buffalo | June 15, 2026 | |
Timeline
2023
- May 29: The United Conservative Party (UCP) wins a majority government in the 31st Alberta general election, with the Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) forming the Official Opposition. No other parties win seats in the election.[8]
- June 9: The UCP Cabinet is sworn in.[9]
- June 20: Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper is elected Speaker of the Legislative Assembly.[10]
- September 18: Jordan Wilkie resigns as Green Party leader.[11][12]
- October 15: Barry Morishita resigns as Alberta Party leader.[13][14]
2024
- January 16: Rachel Notley announces intention to resign as NDP leader before the next election. She will remain as leader until a leadership race chooses a successor.[15]
- May 30: Bill 21 receives royal assent, changing the next fixed election date to October 18, 2027.[16]
- June 22: Naheed Nenshi is elected leader of the Alberta NDP.[17]
- July 1: Shannon Phillips resigns as MLA for Lethbridge-West, triggering a by-election.[18]
- October 9: Jennifer Johnson, who appeared on the ballot as a UCP candidate in the last provincial election but was disavowed by the party during the campaign due to controversial comments comparing transgender children to faeces, is returned to the UCP caucus.[19]
- November 20: By-election for the riding of Lethbridge-West called for December 18.[20]
- December 5: Bill 31 receives royal assent, allowing the Electoral Boundaries Commission to add 2 more seats in the next redistribution.[21]
- December 18: The 2024 Lethbridge-West provincial by-election is held, with the NDP's Rob Miyashiro elected.[22]
- December 30: Rachel Notley resigns as MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona, triggering a by-election.[23]
2025
- January 23: Naheed Nenshi acclaimed as Alberta NDP's by-election candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona.[24]
- March 7: Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair is removed from the UCP caucus over comments made criticizing the budget.[25]
- March 25: Rod Loyola resigns as MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie, triggering a by-election.[26]
- April 16: Airdrie-Cochrane MLA Peter Guthrie is removed from the UCP caucus after publishing a letter alleging the health minister withheld information from cabinet relating to the Alberta Health Services board of directors.[27]
- May 13: MLA Ric McIver resigns his position as Minister of Municipal Affairs[28] and is elected to the position of Speaker of the House, following Nathan Cooper's resignation as speaker.[29]
- May 22: Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper resigns his seat.[30][31]
- June 23: By-elections are held in the ridings of Edmonton-Strathcona, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, Edmonton-Ellerslie.[32] The NDP and UCP held their respective seats.
- July 23: Airdrie-Cochrane MLA Peter Guthrie and Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair join the Alberta Party, intending to change its name to the Progressive Conservatives.[33]
- August 27: The Alberta Party votes to rebrand as the Progressive Conservative Party, pending confirmation from Elections Alberta.[34]
- December 9: Peter Guthrie becomes the leader of the Alberta Party.[35]
- December 18: The Alberta Party officially changes its name to the Progressive Tory Party.[36]
2026
- March 26: The Electoral Boundaries Commission submits its report recommending the limits of 89 ridings.[3]
- May 7: Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair returns to the UCP caucus.
- May 15: Calgary-Shaw MLA Rebecca Schulz resigns her seat.[37]
- May 20: The Select Special Citizen Initiative Proposal Review Committee reviews Thomas Lukaszuk's "Forever Canadian" petition and during debate the UCP sends out a press release indicating a separation question will be on the fall referendum ballot before a vote occurs.
- May 21: Premier Danielle Smith announces that a referendum will be held on October 19, 2026, asking if Alberta should stay in Canada or hold a referendum on separation.
Opinion polls
| Pollster | Client | Dates conducted |
Source | UCP | NDP | GRN | TORY | LIB | WLC | WIP | RPA | Others | Margin of error |
Sample size |
Polling method |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | Postmedia Network | May 29–Jun 1, 2026 | [p 1][p 2] | 49% | 40% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11% | 3.1% | 1,014 | Online | 9% |
| Ipsos | Global News | May 28–Jun 1, 2026 | [p 3] | 48% | 45% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6% | 4.9% | 600 | Online | 3% |
| Angus Reid | N/A | May 22–24, 2026 | [p 4][p 5] | 46% | 45% | 0% | 4% | — | 2% | — | — | 2% | 3% | 800 | Online | 1% |
| Probe Research | N/A | Apr 27–May 6, 2026 | [p 6] | 46% | 39% | 2% | 6% | 6% | — | — | 0% | 2% | 2.5% | 1,484 | Online | 7% |
| Mainstreet Research | N/A | Apr 20–22, 2026 | [p 7] | 46% | 42% | 3% | 4% | — | — | 3% | — | 3% | 1.8% | 3,129 | IVR | 4% |
| Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research | CBC News | Apr 7–22, 2026 | [p 8][p 9] | 49% | 36% | <1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 8% | 2.8% | 1,200 | Telephone | 13% |
| Leger | N/A | Apr 3–6, 2026 | [p 10] | 53% | 36% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11% | 3.1% | 1,003 | Online | 17% |
| Pollara | N/A | Mar 16–25, 2026 | [p 11] | 49% | 42% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9% | 1.7% | 3,200 | Online | 7% |
| Leger | N/A | Mar 2–4, 2026 | [p 12] | 48% | 36% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | — | — | 2% | 3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 12% |
| Abacus Data | N/A | Feb 20–25, 2026 | [p 13] | 49% | 36% | 2% | 2% | 9% | — | — | — | 3% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 13% |
| Mainstreet Research | Western Standard | Feb 10–12, 2026 | [p 14] | 48% | 40% | — | 3% | 6% | — | — | 1% | 2% | 2.5% | 1,504 | Smart IVR | 8% |
| Leger | N/A | Jan 23–26, 2026 | [p 15] | 50% | 37% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | — | 2% | 3% | 3.1% | 1,003 | Online | 13% |
| Liaison | N/A | Jan 7–11, 2026 | [p 16] | 46% | 44% | 2% | 2% | 4% | — | — | — | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | IVR | 2% |
| The Alberta Party changes its name to the Progressive Tory Party of Alberta. | ||||||||||||||||
| Peter Guthrie becomes the leader of the Alberta Party. | ||||||||||||||||
| Angus Reid | N/A | Nov 26–Dec 1, 2025 | [p 17] | 48% | 45% | — | 4% | 3% | — | — | — | 1% | 5% | 362 | Online | 3% |
| Leger | N/A | Oct 10–12, 2025 | [p 18] | 44% | 39% | 3% | 2% | 9% | <1% | — | 1% | 1% | 3.0% | 1,045 | Online | 5% |
| Cardinal Research | N/A | Sep 17–20, 2025 | [p 19] | 43% | 36% | — | 4% | 5% | — | — | 11% | 1% | 2% | 2,626 | IVR | 7% |
| Angus Reid | N/A | Aug 28–Sep 5, 2025 | [p 20] | 51% | 40% | — | 4% | 3% | — | — | — | 1% | 5% | 431 | Online | 11% |
| Leger | N/A | May 23–25, 2025 | [p 21] | 48% | 34% | 2% | 2% | 9% | <1% | — | 2% | 2% | 3.04% | 1,040 | Online | 14% |
| Abacus Data | N/A | May 15–21, 2025 | [p 22] | 58% | 32% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10% | 5.0% | 400 | Online | 26% |
| Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research | CBC News | May 7–21, 2025 | [p 23][p 24] | 52% | 38% | 1% | 1% | 3% | — | <1% | — | 4% | 2.8% | 1,200 | Telephone | 14% |
| Canadian Election Study | N/A | Apr 29–May 13, 2025 | [p 25] | 47% | 43% | — | 6% | — | — | — | — | 4% | N/A | 1,302 | Online | 4% |
| Environics | Alberta Federation of Labour | Apr 2–14, 2025 | [p 26] | 43% | 47% | — | 6% | — | — | — | — | 4% | N/A | 1,003 | Online | 4% |
| Mainstreet Research | N/A | Mar 18, 2025 | [p 27] | 51% | 39% | 2% | — | 3% | — | 1% | — | 3% | 2.8% | 1,228 | Smart IVR | 12% |
| Leger | N/A | Jan 24–26, 2025 | [p 28] | 51% | 36% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 1% | — | — | 2% | 3.1% | 1,002 | Online | 15% |
| Cardinal Research | N/A | Sep 17–28, 2024 | [p 29] | 50% | 43% | 2% | 1% | — | — | — | — | 4% | 2.5% | 1,553 | Telephone | 7% |
| Leger | N/A | Aug 2–5, 2024 | [p 30] | 48% | 40% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | — | — | 2% | 3.1% | 1,005 | Online | 8% |
| Sovereign North Strategies | Western Standard | Jul 6–11, 2024 | [p 31][p 32] | 47% | 46% | 1% | 4% | — | — | 2% | — | — | 2.4% | 2,861 | Telephone | 1% |
| Abacus Data | N/A | Jun 25–28, 2024 | [p 33] | 54% | 40% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6% | 3.31% | 1,000 | Online | 14% |
| Naheed Nenshi elected leader of the Alberta NDP. | ||||||||||||||||
| Leger | N/A | May 22–25, 2024 | [p 34] | 47% | 43% | — | 6% | — | — | — | — | 4% | 3.1% | 1,009 | Online | 4% |
| Leger | N/A | Mar 22–24, 2024 | [p 35] | 46% | 44% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | — | — | 2% | 3.1% | 1,002 | Online | 2% |
| Abacus Data | N/A | Mar 14–21, 2024 | [p 36] | 55% | 40% | — | 2% | — | — | — | — | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 15% |
| Pallas Data | N/A | Mar 12–13, 2024 | [p 37] | 52% | 45% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3% | 3.3% | 868 | IVR | 7% |
| Leger | N/A | Mar 8–11, 2024 | [p 38][p 39] | 49% | 41% | — | 6% | — | — | — | — | 4% | 3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 8% |
| Leger | N/A | Feb 9–12, 2024 | [p 40] | 49% | 42% | — | 5% | — | — | — | — | 4% | 3.1% | 1,002 | Online | 7% |
| Leger | N/A | Jan 19–22, 2024 | [p 41] | 51% | 40% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9% | 3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 11% |
| Leger | N/A | Jan 12–15, 2024 | [p 42] | 50% | 43% | — | 3% | — | — | — | — | 4% | 3.1% | 1,012 | Online | 7% |
| Angus Reid | N/A | Nov 24 – Dec 1, 2023 | [p 43][p 44] | 53% | 40% | — | 3% | 2% | — | — | — | 1% | 5% | 392 | Online | 13% |
| Leger | N/A | Oct 27–30, 2023 | [p 45] | 46% | 47% | — | 5% | — | — | — | — | 2% | 3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 1% |
| Leger | N/A | Sep 15–18, 2023 | [p 46] | 49% | 39% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | — | — | 2% | 3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 10% |
| 2023 general election | May 29, 2023 | 52.63% | 44.05% | 0.76% | 0.71% | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 1.31% | — | — | — | 8.58% | ||
- Hypothetical voting intentions with the Alberta Party being rebranded to the Progressive Conservatives
Notes
- Changed name from the Alberta Party on December 18, 2025.
- Nenshi will be seeking re-election in a Calgary seat. He will determine the specific riding after the completion of the 2026 Alberta electoral redistribution.[1]