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2027 Murcian regional election

Election in the Spanish region of Murcia From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A regional election will be held in the Region of Murcia on 23 May 2027 to elect the 12th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly will be up for election. It will be held concurrently with regional elections in at least six other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

Quick facts All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia 23 seats needed for a majority, Leader ...
2027 Murcian regional election
← 2023
23 May 2027
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Fernando López Miras Francisco Lucas Ayala Rubén Martínez
Party PP PSOE Vox
Leader since 3 May 2017 19 January 2025 3 March 2026
Last election 21 seats, 42.8% 13 seats, 25.6% 9 seats, 17.7%
Current seats 21 13 7
Seats needed Increase 2 Increase 10 Increase 16
 
Leader María Marín
Party Podemos–IU–AV
Leader since 18 January 2023
Last election 2 seats, 4.7%
Current seats 2
Seats needed Increase 21
Incumbent President

Fernando López Miras
PP


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Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Regional Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally.[2]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on 23 May 2027.[1][2][3]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the present time.[4]

More information Groups, Parties ...
Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 21 21
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 13 13
Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 7 7
Mixed Group Podemos 2 4
INDEP 2[a]
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Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2][3]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

More information Candidacy, Parties and alliances ...
Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Vote % Seats
PP
List
 Fernando López Miras Conservatism
Christian democracy		 42.8% 21 Yes
PSOE
List
 Francisco Lucas Ayala Social democracy 25.6% 13 No [7]
Vox
List
 Rubén Martínez Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 17.7% 9 No [8]
Podemos–
IU–AV
List
 María Marín Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 4.7% 2 No
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Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 May 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Vox
Podemos		 MCC Sumar SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1][p 2] 22–29 May 2026 1,180 ? 43.5
21/22		 24.0
11/12		 18.8
9		 6.1
2/3		 – – – 19.5
Sigma Dos/La 7[p 3] 18–21 May 2026 1,000 ? ?
21/22		 ?
12/13		 ?
9/10		 ?
2/3		 – – 2.7
0		 ?
OBEDE/UCAM[p 4] 13–28 Apr 2026 800 62.5 43.8
21/22		 24.5
12		 23.0
11		 2.9
0/1		 – – – 19.3
CEMOP[p 5] 20 Jan–6 Feb 2026 820 65.5 37.7
19		 24.1
12		 25.7
12		 4.3
2		 – – – 12.0
OBEDE/UCAM[p 6] 18–28 Nov 2025 800 58.1 37.6
19		 23.3
11		 27.2
13		 – – 4.1
2		 – 10.4
CEMOP[p 7] 3–21 Nov 2025 820 64.8 38.3
19		 23.9
12		 25.3
12		 5.5
2		 – – – 13.0
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 8] 30 Aug–28 Sep 2025 1,310 ? 43.3
21		 31.1
15		 15.4
7		 1.5
0		 1.3
0		 5.6
2		 – 12.2
CEMOP[p 9] 1–12 Sep 2025 820 63.6 36.1
18		 25.8
12		 27.9
13		 5.6
2		 – – – 8.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 10] 26 Apr–5 Jun 2025 1,072 ? 43.8
21/22		 26.5
13/14		 17.5
8/9		 4.5
1/2		 – – – 17.3
NC Report/La Razón[p 11] 16–31 May 2025 350 ? ?
24		 ?
12		 ?
9		 – – – – ?
SyM Consulting[p 12][p 13] 16–19 Apr 2025 1,000 52.0 41.0
19/20		 26.4
12/13		 23.4
11		 4.3
2		 1.6
0		 – – 14.6
CEMOP[p 14] 24 Mar–4 Apr 2025 820 61.9 42.8
21		 24.5
12		 22.4
10		 4.1
2		 – – – 18.3
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 15] 28 Nov–28 Dec 2024 1,310 ? 42.1
21		 31.3
16		 13.8
7		 2.1
0		 2.2
0		 3.3
1		 – 10.8
CEMOP[p 16] 25 Nov–11 Dec 2024 820 60.1 46.6
23		 23.9
11		 20.7
10		 3.1
1		 – – – 22.7
OBEDE/UCAM[p 17] 15–29 Nov 2024 800 60.2 46.3
23		 23.3
12		 19.6
10		 – – – – 23.0
SyM Consulting[p 18] 15–19 Oct 2024 1,000 61.4 45.4
22		 25.8
12/13		 19.5
9		 4.0
1/2		 2.6
0		 – – 19.6
CEMOP[p 19] 23 Sep–4 Oct 2024 820 62.4 44.1
22		 24.9
12		 18.8
9		 5.1
2		 – – – 19.2
Sigma Dos/La 7[p 20][p 21] 2–11 Sep 2024 1,004 ? 46.8
22/23		 26.6
12/13		 16.3
7/8		 4.3
1/2		 – – 3.1
0/1		 20.2
Data10/OKDiario[p 22] 15–16 Jul 2024 1,500 ? 46.6
23		 27.7
14		 14.2
7		 3.4
1		 – – – 18.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 23] 13–16 Jul 2024 1,000 64.2 47.0
24		 23.8
12		 15.9
8		 3.1
1		 – – – 23.2
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 N/a 46.8 42.9
(21)		 25.1
(12)		 15.9
(8)		 2.4
(0)		 – 3.3
(1)		 6.6
(3)		 17.8
CEMOP[p 24] 20–30 May 2024 820 63.4 46.1
22		 26.9
13		 17.9
8		 4.7
2		 – – – 19.2
CEMOP[p 25] 5–22 Mar 2024 818 62.7 47.7
23		 24.3
12		 16.7
8		 5.4
2		 – – – 23.4
CEMOP[p 26] 11–22 Jan 2024 817 63.8 41.8
21		 24.8
12		 20.4
10		 5.1
2		 – – – 17.0
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 N/a 70.8 41.2
(19)		 25.3
(12)		 21.8
(10)		 [b] – 9.5
(4)		 – 15.9
CEMOP[p 27] 3–13 Jul 2023 1,200 68 44.3
22		 25.3
12/13		 17.5
8/9		 5.7
2		 – – – 19.0
2023 regional election 28 May 2023 N/a 63.2 42.8
21		 25.6
13		 17.7
9		 4.7
2		 3.0
0		 – – 17.2
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Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...
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Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Region of Murcia.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...
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Notes

  1. [a]
    José Ángel Antelo and Virginia Martínez, former Vox legislators.[5][6]
  2. [b]
    Within Sumar.
  3. [c]
    Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.

References

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Timelines

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