2023 Murcian regional election

The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.^[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.^[3]

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.^[4]

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on 23 May 2023.^[1][4][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.^[1]

The election to the Regional Assembly of Murcia was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (BORM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 14 June.^[6]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the time of dissolution.^[7][8]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[4][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		José Vélez	Social democracy	32.5%	17		[9]
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Fernando López Miras	Conservatism Christian democracy	32.4%	16		[10]
	CS	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)		María José Ros	Liberalism	12.0%	6		[11] [12]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		José Ángel Antelo	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	9.5%	4		[13]
	Podemos– IU–AV	List We Can (Podemos) United Left–Greens of the Region of Murcia (IU–V–RM) – Communist Party of the Region of Murcia (PCM) – Ecosocialists of the Region of Murcia (ESRM) – The Dawn Marxist Organization (La Aurora (OM)) – Republican Left (IR) Green Alliance (AV)		María Marín	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	7.6% [a]	2		[14] [15] [16]
	MR–VE	List More Region of Murcia (Más Región) Greens Equo (Verdes Equo)		Helena Vidal	Green politics Direct democracy Alter-globalization	—N/a[b]			[17] [18]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout											Lead
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—N/a	63.2	25.6 13	42.8 21	1.5 0	17.7 9	[c]	3.0 0	0.4 0	[c]	4.7 2	1.3 0	17.2
NC Report/La Razón[p 1]	22 May 2023	?	?	28.8 14/15	39.1 19/20	–	16.0 7/8	[c]	3.7 1	–	[c]	5.8 2/3	–	10.3
KeyData/Público[p 2]	18 May 2023	?	64.4	29.0 15	39.4 20	2.7 0	15.1 7	[c]	–	–	[c]	7.4 3	–	10.4
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 3][p 4]	11–17 May 2023	600	?	29.2 15	38.8 19	2.9 0	16.4 8	[c]	2.0 0	1.8 0	[c]	6.2 3	2.0 0	9.6
CEMOP[p 5]	8–17 May 2023	1,200	62.8	29.6 14/15	40.9 20/21	2.5 0	15.5 7/8	[c]	3.1 0/1	–	[c]	4.6 2	–	11.3
UCAM[p 6]	3–12 May 2023	800	?	28.9 14/15	38.9 19/20	1.7 0	15.6 8	[c]	3.6 1	–	[c]	5.6 2	–	10.0
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 7][p 8]	4–10 May 2023	600	?	29.0 14	39.3 20	2.9 0	16.2 8	[c]	1.9 0	1.8 0	[c]	6.2 3	2.0 0	10.3
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 9][p 10]	26 Apr–3 May 2023	600	?	29.1 14	39.3 20	2.9 0	16.2 8	[c]	1.9 0	1.9 0	[c]	6.2 3	2.0 0	10.2
Actuatech/PSOE[p 11]	19–28 Apr 2023	800	63.9	31.2 17	32.2 17	2.7 0	16.8 8	[c]	–	–	[c]	7.2 3	–	1.0
GAD3/ABC[p 12]	26–27 Apr 2023	1,000	?	28.3 14	39.3 19/20	–	15.8 7/8	[c]	3.3 1	–	[c]	6.4 3	–	11.0
CIS[p 13][p 14]	10–26 Apr 2023	631	?	30.5 14/16	36.2 17/18	2.1 0	16.8 7/9	[c]	–	–	[c]	9.8 4/5	–	5.7
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 15][p 16]	19–25 Apr 2023	600	?	29.1 14	39.4 20	2.8 0	16.1 8	[c]	2.0 0	1.9 0	[c]	6.2 3	1.8 0	10.3
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 17][p 18]	12–18 Apr 2023	600	?	29.3 14	39.5 20	2.7 0	16.6 8	[c]	2.0 0	2.0 0	[c]	6.2 3	–	10.2
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 19][p 20]	5–11 Apr 2023	600	?	29.1 14	39.3 20	2.7 0	17.2 8	[c]	2.0 0	2.0 0	[c]	6.1 3	–	10.2
Simple Lógica/elDiario.es[p 21]	3–11 Apr 2023	450	?	27.7 14/15	32.2 16/17	5.0 2	16.1 7/8	[c]	–	–	[c]	11.4 4/5	3.2 1	4.5
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 22]	3–7 Apr 2023	1,200	?	29.3 14/15	41.4 21/22	2.5 0	14.3 7	[c]	–	–	[c]	6.2 2	–	12.1
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 23][p 24]	27 Mar–4 Apr 2023	600	?	29.3 15	38.6 19	3.0 0	17.3 8	[c]	2.0 0	2.1 0	[c]	6.1 3	–	9.3
NC Report/La Razón[p 25]	24–31 Mar 2023	?	64.3	29.5 15	42.9 21	2.8 0	12.4 6	[c]	–	–	[c]	7.6 3	–	13.4
CEMOP[p 26]	20–31 Mar 2023	1,200	66.2	29.2 14/15	40.9 20/21	2.1 0	15.5 7	[c]	–	–	[c]	6.2 3	–	11.7
Actuatech/PSOE[p 27]	2 Feb–3 Mar 2023	1,200	64.0	30.8 17/18	32.6 17/18	2.9 0	14.5 7/8	[c]	–	–	[c]	6.1 2/3	–	1.8
CEMOP[p 28]	23–31 Jan 2023	820	64.7	29.7 14/15	40.7 20/21	2.5 0	14.3 7	[c]	–	–	[c]	6.4 3	–	11.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 29][p 30]	2–10 Jan 2023	779	?	29.3 14/15	41.4 20/21	2.5 0	15.3 7	[c]	–	–	[c]	6.2 2	–	12.1
InvyMark[p 31]	12–18 Dec 2022	1,100	?	28.6 13/14	37.6 18/19	2.1 0	20.1 10	[c]	–	–	[c]	5.6 2	–	9.0
CIS[d][p 32][p 33]	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	329	?	32.9 15/17	41.4 18/23	0.6 0/2	10.2 4/6	[c]	–	–	[c]	8.1 3/5	0.3 0	8.5
CEMOP[p 34]	3–17 Oct 2022	820	63.5	29.3 15	39.6 20	2.4 0	15.2 8	[c]	–	–	[c]	5.6 2	–	10.3
InvyMark[p 35][p 36]	27 Jun–6 Jul 2022	1,500	?	29.9 14/15	33.5 16/17	2.1 0	24.3 11/12	[c]	–	–	[c]	5.5 3	–	3.6
CEMOP[p 37]	31 May–8 Jun 2022	820	68.0	28.8 14	38.1 19	3.2 1	18.5 9	[c]	–	–	[c]	4.5 2	–	9.3
UCAM[p 38]	4–21 Apr 2022	800	59.1	28.6 14	38.6 19	3.3 1	16.2 8	[c]	–	–	[c]	6.3 3	–	10.0
CEMOP[p 39]	15 Feb–2 Mar 2022	820	64.0	30.3 15	36.6 19	2.2 0	16.2 8	[c]	–	–	[c]	6.5 3	–	6.3
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 40]	31 Oct 2021	?	?	29.5 15	42.8 22	2.7 0	12.9 6	[c]	1.5 0	1.5 0	[c]	5.6 2	–	13.3
CEMOP[p 41]	18–28 Oct 2021	827	64.0	29.5 14	39.4 20	4.7 2	13.5 6	[c]	–	–	[c]	7.1 3	–	9.9
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 42]	15 Jun 2021	850	?	32.3 16	41.9 21	2.4 0	13.0 6	[c]	1.7 0	1.7 0	[c]	4.9 2	–	9.6
UCAM[p 43]	10–17 May 2021	800	59.2	27.1 13	39.7 20	3.4 1	15.6 8	[c]	–	0.7 0	[c]	4.6 2	3.1 1	12.6
CEMOP[p 44]	4–14 May 2021	820	63.3	27.6 14	43.7 22	3.4 1	13.7 6	[c]	–	–	[c]	5.3 2	–	16.1
Murcia Electoral[p 45]	16–17 Mar 2021	675	?	31.3 16	30.9 16	5.7 3	16.4 8	5.5 2	2.2 0	2.4 0	–	–	2.1 0	0.4
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 46]	14 Mar 2021	850	?	33.3 17	40.1 20	2.8 0	12.4 6	4.4 2	1.7 0	1.8 0	0.4 0	–	–	6.8
SyM Consulting[p 47][p 48]	12–13 Mar 2021	1,076	61.7	27.9 14/15	36.5 19	3.0 0	22.2 11/12	2.8 0	2.4 0	1.7 0	1.4 0	–	–	8.6
Sigma Dos/La Verdad[p 49][p 50]	10–12 Mar 2021	1,100	?	29.1 14	35.8 17/18	6.7 3	18.2 8/9	5.0 2	–	–	–	–	–	6.7
UCAM[p 51]	9–23 Dec 2020	809	59.2	30.5 15	34.1 17	7.6 3	13.4 7	[c]	–	–	[c]	6.9 3	–	3.6
CEMOP[p 52]	14–22 Dec 2020	824	64.4	27.6 14	38.7 19	7.2 3	15.6 7	[c]	–	–	[c]	5.1 2	–	11.1
SyM Consulting[p 53][p 54]	16–18 Oct 2020	1,131	61.3	29.1 15	34.1 17/18	3.4 1	20.3 10	3.7 1/2	2.6 0	2.7 0	1.6 0	–	–	5.0
CEMOP[p 55]	2–15 Oct 2020	825	64.9	27.3 13	39.3 20	6.8 3	15.7 7	[c]	–	–	[c]	4.9 2	–	12.0
Murcia Electoral[p 56][p 57]	29 Jul–5 Aug 2020	1,841	?	31.4 16	33.9 17	9.6 5	10.9 5	5.1 2	2.3 0	2.2 0	0.4 0	–	1.9 0	2.5
Murcia Electoral[p 58][p 59]	2–9 Jun 2020	1,721	?	29.6 15	34.1 18	9.2 4	11.8 6	5.7 2	2.2 0	2.5 0	0.3 0	–	2.2 0	4.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 60][p 61]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	33.6 16	38.5 19	6.5 3	11.4 5	4.3 2	1.7 0	1.7 0	0.9 0	–	–	4.9
CEMOP[p 62]	20–29 Apr 2020	804	64.2	31.0 15	38.8 19	7.9 3/4	11.8 5/6	[c]	–	–	[c]	5.5 2	–	7.8
SyM Consulting[p 63]	30–31 Mar 2020	1,089	60.6	30.6 15/16	33.8 17	8.7 4	14.8 7	3.4 1/2	2.6 0	2.3 0	1.5 0	–	–	3.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 64]	6–8 Dec 2019	?	?	26.0 12/15	25.4 12/14	7.8 3/4	24.3 11/14	6.6 2/3	2.9 0/1	2.8 0/1	1.7 0	–	1.0 0	0.6
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—N/a	68.0	24.8 12	26.5 13	7.4 3	28.0 13	[c]	–	0.3 0	[c]	8.9 4	1.9 0	1.5
Sigma Dos/La Verdad[p 65][p 66]	9–10 Jul 2019	600	?	35.4 18	31.2 15	9.6 4	11.9 6	5.3 2	–	–	–	–	–	4.2
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—N/a	62.3	32.5 17	32.4 16	12.0 6	9.5 4	5.6 2	2.2 0	2.0 0	2.0 0	–	–	0.1

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size								?	N	Lead
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—N/a	16.3	27.2	1.0	11.3	[c]	[c]	3.0	—N/a	34.3	10.9
Actuatech/PSOE[p 11]	19–28 Apr 2023	800	13.1	26.8	0.5	10.9	[c]	[c]	4.0	28.5	9.5	13.7
CIS[p 13]	10–26 Apr 2023	631	21.4	26.0	1.0	13.1	[c]	[c]	6.9	24.2	3.2	4.6
CEMOP[p 26]	20–31 Mar 2023	1,200	17.1	29.6	1.7	13.1	[c]	[c]	3.9	17.1	8.0	12.5
Actuatech/PSOE[p 27]	2 Feb–3 Mar 2023	1,200	14.4	27.2	0.7	9.3	[c]	[c]	2.3	31.1	10.0	12.8
CEMOP[p 28]	23–31 Jan 2023	820	14.9	27.6	1.7	12.1	[c]	[c]	3.8	25.7	5.9	12.7
CIS[p 32]	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	329	21.2	27.9	0.3	7.1	[c]	[c]	4.8	30.4	4.2	6.7
CEMOP[p 34]	3–17 Oct 2022	820	13.8	27.3	1.5	13.8	[c]	[c]	3.7	19.3	8.3	13.5
CEMOP[p 37]	31 May–8 Jun 2022	820	17.7	25.5	3.4	16.8	[c]	[c]	3.0	13.4	9.4	7.8
CEMOP[p 39]	15 Feb–2 Mar 2022	820	16.7	20.5	0.9	9.5	[c]	[c]	5.0	26.2	15.1	3.8
CEMOP[p 41]	18–28 Oct 2021	827	16.2	24.8	2.7	11.7	[c]	[c]	5.1	17.6	8.5	8.6
CEMOP[p 44]	4–14 May 2021	820	14.3	30.5	1.8	11.3	[c]	[c]	4.0	19.8	9.4	16.2
CEMOP[p 52]	14–22 Dec 2020	824	15.4	25.1	5.1	13.2	[c]	[c]	4.5	20.8	8.6	9.7
CEMOP[p 55]	2–15 Oct 2020	825	15.0	23.8	3.8	12.4	[c]	[c]	3.6	19.6	11.0	8.8
CEMOP[p 62]	20–29 Apr 2020	804	14.8	24.6	3.1	7.6	[c]	[c]	4.4	29.8	11.9	9.8
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—N/a	17.2	18.4	5.2	19.4	[c]	[c]	6.1	—N/a	30.0	1.0
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—N/a	20.6	20.6	7.6	6.0	3.5	1.3	–	—N/a	35.9	0.0

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None	?	Lead
CEMOP[p 26]	20–31 Mar 2023	1,200	19.8	33.4	2.2	13.3	3.7	6.0	21.7	13.6
CEMOP[p 28]	23–31 Jan 2023	820	18.8	32.3	2.0	12.9	3.0	7.0	24.0	13.5

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None	?	Lead
CEMOP[p 26]	20–31 Mar 2023	1,200	10.4	64.4	0.4	5.7	0.3	0.1	18.7	54.0
CEMOP[p 28]	23–31 Jan 2023	820	10.2	62.1	0.4	6.1	0.7	1.0	19.2	51.9