Next Tasmanian state election
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The next Tasmanian state election is expected to be held sometime in 2029 to elect all 35 members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly.[4]
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No later than mid-2029[1]
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All 35 seats in the House of Assembly 18 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The election follows the 2025 Tasmanian state election, which delivered a hung parliament in which no party had a legislative majority. 2025 Tasmanian government formation negotiations proved largely unsuccessful, with then-Labor leader Dean Winter unable to convince crossbenchers to support his bid for government. In the August 2025 no-confidence motion in Rockliff, the Greens, SFF and all independent crossbenchers supported the Liberal government, citing Labor unwillingness to negotiate.[5] Josh Willie took leadership of the Labor Party following the 2025 Tasmanian Labor Party leadership election.[6]
Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff is expected to contest the election in attempt to win a sixth consecutive election, with Josh Willie attempting to lead the Labor Party into government for the first time since 2014.[6] The Greens, SFF and other minor parties are also expected to contest.
Background
Changes in parliament
On 2 January 2026, Helen Burnet resigned from the Tasmanian Greens to sit as an independent saying she wanted to be more "effective, accountable and heard".[3]
| Seat | Before | Change | After | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Member | Party | Type | Date | Date | Member | Party | |||
| Clark | Helen Burnet | Greens | Resignation | 2 January 2026 | Helen Burnet | Independent | |||
Retiring MPs
Independent
- Peter George (Franklin) – announced retirement 17 April 2026[7]
Candidates
Parties registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) are eligible to contest the election.[8] Six parties were registered as at 14 January 2026:
- Animal Justice (did not endorse candidates in 2025)
- Labor
- Liberal
- Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
- Greens
- The Nationals
One Nation has indicated it is intending to launch a Tasmanian Branch to run in state elections.[9]
Opinion polling
Voting intention
| Date | Firm | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Primary vote | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | SFF | NAT | IND | OTH | ||||
| 11–13 May 2026 | EMRS[10] | 1000 | ±3.1% | 25% | 24% | 14% | 19% | N/a | N/a | 16% | 1% |
| 16–19 Feb 2026 | EMRS[11] | 947 | ±3.1% | 29% | 23% | 15% | 14% | N/a | N/a | 15% | 3% |
| 27 Jan – 12 Feb 2026 | DemosAU[12][13] | 1,071 | ±3.6% | 35% | 23% | 15% | N/a | 4% | N/a | 17% | 6% |
| 17–21 Nov 2025 | EMRS[14] | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 34% | 25% | 17% | N/a | N/a | N/a | 19% | 6% |
| 16–27 Oct 2025 | DemosAU[15][16][17] | 1,021 | ±4.4% | 41% | 24% | 15% | N/a | 2% | N/a | 14% | 4% |
| 25–28 Aug 2025 | EMRS[18][19] | 1,047 | ±3.02% | 38% | 24% | 13% | N/a | N/a | N/a | 19% | 6% |
| 20 Jul 2025 | 2025 election | 39.9% | 25.9% | 14.4% | — | 2.9% | 1.6% | 15.3% | — | ||
Leadership approval
Preferred premier
| Date | Firm | Sample size |
Party leaders | Net | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockliff | Willie | Unsure | ||||
| 16–19 Feb 2026 | EMRS[10] | 947 | 44% | 25% | 34% | 19% |
| 16–19 Feb 2026 | EMRS[11] | 947 | 40% | 26% | 34% | 14% |
| 27 Jan - 12 Feb 2026 | DemosAU[12] | 1,071 | 43% | 32% | 25% | 12% |
| 16–27 Oct 2025 | DemosAU[15][16][17] | 1,021 | 46% | 34% | 20% | 12% |
| 25–28 Aug 2025 | EMRS[18][19] | 1,047 | 50% | 24% | 23% | 26% |