Opinion polling for the 2014 Indian general election
Indian lower house election opinion poll
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In the run up to the 2014 Indian general election, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2013 to April 2014. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.
Background
Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.[1]
Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.[2]
Post-poll surveys or Exit Polls, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls.[3] According to a study, post-poll surveys in the past have consistently overestimated BJP seats.[4] However, in 2014, it was the opposite and most exit polls underestimated the number of seats to be won by BJP and allies.
Opinion polls
Seats
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPA | NDA | Left | Other | ||||
| Jan–Mar 2013 | [5] | Times Now-CVoter | No sample size provided | 128 | 184 | – | – |
| Apr–May 2013 | [6] | Headlines Today-CVoter | 120,000 | 209 (without Modi) 155(with Modi) |
179(without Modi) 220 (with Modi) |
– | – |
| May 2013 | [7] | ABP News-Nielsen | 33,408 | 136 | 206 | – | – |
| Jul 2013 | [8] | The Week – Hansa Research | No sample size provided | 184 | 197 | – | 162 |
| Jul 2013 | [9] | CNN-IBN and The Hindu by CSDS | 19,062[10] | 149–157 | 172–180 | – | 208–224 |
| Jul 2013 | [11] | Times Now-India Today-CVoter | 36,914 | 134 (INC 119) | 156 (BJP 131) | – | – |
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 117 (INC 102) | 186 (BJP 162) | – | 240 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 103 (INC 91) | 212 (BJP 188) | – | 228 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [14] | ABP News-Nielsen | 64,006[15] | 101 (INC 81) | 226 (BJP 210) | – | 216 |
| Jan 2014 | [16] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 18,591[17] | 107 – 127 (INC 92 – 108) |
211 – 231 (BJP 192 – 210) |
– | 205 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000[19] | 101 (INC 89) | 227 (BJP 202) | – | 215 |
| Feb 2014 | [15] | ABP News-Nielsen | 29,000 | 92 | 236 | 29 | 186 |
| Feb 2014 | [20] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 29,000 | 119 – 139 (INC 94 – 110) |
212 – 232 (BJP 193 – 213) |
105–193 | |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 128 | 230 | 55 | 130 |
| March 2014 | [22] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 20,957 | 111–123 | 234–246 | 174–198 | |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000[24] | 111 (INC 92) | 275 (BJP 226) | 157 | |
Votes
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPA | NDA | Left | Other | ||||
| December 2013 – January 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 23% | 34% | – | 43% |
| December 2013 – January 2014 | [14] | ABP News-Nielsen | 64,006[15] | 23% | 31% | 5% | 41% |
| January 2014 | [16] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 18,591[17] | 36% (INC 27%) | 28% (BJP 34%) | 4% | 32% |
| February 2014 | [15] | ABP News-Nielsen | 20 | 46 | 5% | 40% | |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 25.6% | 34.5% | 39.9% | |
Graphs
- NDA
- UPA
- Others
- NDA
- UPA
- Others
Statewise opinion polling
Andhra Pradesh (42)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | TDP | YSR Congress | TRS | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 7 | – | 8 | 13 | 13 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 7 | – | 8 | 13 | 13 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research[25] | 46,571 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 9 | |
| March–April 2014 | [26] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1308 | 4–8 | 13–19 | 9–15 | 4–8 | |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research[27] | 24,000 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 8 | |
| 4–12 April 2014 | [28] | India Today-Cicero | 1358 | 4–6 | 17–21 | 7–11 | 6–10 | |
Arunachal Pradesh (2)
Assam (14)
Bihar (40)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC-RJD-NCP | BJP-LJP | JD(U) | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 1 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 13 | 22 | 4 | 1 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 13 | 22 | 5 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 11 | 23 | 5 | 1 |
| March–April 2014 | [30] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1557 | 7–13 | 21–29 | 2–5 | 0–3 |
| 30 March – 2 April 2014 | [31] | India Today-Cicero | 1498 | 15–19 | 20–24 | 0–2 | 0–1 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 12 | 24 | 4 | 0 |
Chhattisgarh (11)
Goa (2)
Gujarat (26)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [32] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 917 | 0–4 | 20–26 | 0–2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
Haryana (10)
Himachal Pradesh (4)
Jammu and Kashmir (6)
Jharkhand (14)
Karnataka (28)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | JD(S) | AAP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [33] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 825 | 12–18 | 7–13 | 1 – 4 (Including Others) | 0 | 1 – 4 (Including JD(S)) |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kerala (20)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJP | LDF | INC | KC(M) | IUML | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter[34] | 21,792 | – | 11 | 6 | – | – |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 0 | 13 | 7 (As UDF) | ||
| March–April 2014 | [35] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 607 | 0 | 4–8 | 11 – 17 (As UDF) | ||
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 0 | 12 | 8 (As UDF) | ||
Madhya Pradesh (29)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | BSP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [36] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1121 | 1–5 | 24–28 | 0 | 0 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Maharashtra (48)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | NCP | BJP[37] | SS | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 2 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 6 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 3 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 12 | 33 | 3 | ||
| March 2014 | [38] | ABP News-Nielsen | Not Available | 8 | 5 | 19 | 12 | 4 |
| March–April 2014 | [39] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1662 | 16–22 | 24–30 | 1–3 | ||
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 9 | 37 | 2 | ||
Manipur (2)
Meghalaya (2)
Mizoram (1)
Nagaland (1)
Odisha (21)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | BJD | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [40] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 796 | 0–4 | 3–7 | 10–16 | 0–2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
Punjab (13)
Rajasthan (25)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| March–April 2014 | [41] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 837 | 0–2 | 21–25 | 0–2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
Sikkim (1)
Tamil Nadu (39)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AIADMK | DMK | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 5 | 5 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 0 | – | 29 | 5 | 5 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 5 | 6 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 10 | 2 |
| March–April 2014 | [42] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1460 | 0 | 6 – 10 (In alliance) | 15–21 | 10 – 16 (In alliance) | 0 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 0 | 3 (In alliance) | 22 | 14 (In alliance) | 0 |
| 4–12 April 2014 | [28] | India Today-Cicero | 1358 | 0 | 4 – 6 (In alliance) | 20–24 | 9 – 13 (In alliance) | 0–2 |
Tripura (2)
Uttar Pradesh (80)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | SP | BSP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 7 | 17 | 25 | 31 | 0 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 24 | 2 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [43] | ABP News-Nielsen | 64,006 | 12 | 35 | 14 | 15 | 4 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [44] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 5 | 34 | 20 | 21 | 0 |
| Feb 2014 | [45] | ABP News-Nielsen | 29,000 | 11 | 40 | 13 | 14 | 2 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 12 | 40 | 13 | 15 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [46] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 2633 | 4 – 8 | 42 – 50 | 11–17 | 10–16 | 0–2 |
| 30 March – 3 April 2014 | [31] | India Today-Cicero | 1498 | 6 – 10 | 42 – 50 | 15–21 | 9–13 | 0–2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 5 | 51 | 14 | 10 | 0 |
Uttarakhand (5)
West Bengal (42)
Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for West Bengal
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AITC | Left Front | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 0 |
| Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 1 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 14 | 1 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 9 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [47] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1440 | 4–7 | 0–1 | 23–29 | 7–13 | 0 |
| 1 – 5 April 2014 | [48] | India Today-Cicero | 1706 | 6–10 | 0–3 | 23–27 | 7–11 | 0–1 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 8 | 0 |
Union Territories
NCT of Delhi (7)
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Sample size | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AAP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| March–April 2014 | [49] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 891 | 0–1 | 3–4 | 2–3 |
| 28–29 March 2014 | [50] | India Today- Cicero | 1,188 | 0–2 | 5–7 | 1–2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Other Union Territories (6)
Other findings
The eight largest metropolises in India are considered important because they constitute 31 seats, larger than some regions altogether. In the previous election, the INC-led UPA won 24 of these seats, but the UPA is trailing in these areas.[51] A NDTV opinion poll in Uttar Pradesh indicated that the BJP would win its largest share of seats in the region by winning 40 of the 80 seats. BSP would get 15 seats, SP would get 13 seats, INC-RLD will get 12 seats, amongst its losses will Ajit Singh. The poll also asked those in Gujarat if Modi should run from U.P., of which 67% responded negatively, while those in U.P. said by 62% that they would like to see him run from there.[52] A survey of first time voters suggested Modi was the most popular prime ministerial candidate and Mamata Banerjee was the most popular outside the BJP or INC.[53] Latest survey by CNN-IBN-Lokniti predicts the decline (by 5%) in popularity of Narendra Modi as PM candidate.[54]
Exit polls
| When conducted | Ref | Polling organisation/agency | Constituencies polled |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPA | NDA | TF | Other | ||||
| April/May 2014 (post-poll) |
[55] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 287[56] | 92–102 (INC 72–82) |
270–282 (BJP 230–242) |
125–171 | |
| April/May 2014 (exit+post-poll) |
[57] | India Today – Cicero | 543[58] | 110–120 | 261–283 | 150–162 | |
| April/May 2014 (exit+post-poll) |
[57][59] | News 24-Today's Chanakya | 479[60] | 61–79 (INC 48–66) |
326–354 (BJP 277–305) |
122–144 | |
| Publish Date | Ref | Polling Organisation | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA | UPA | Other | |||
| 12 May 2014 | [57] | CNN-IBN – CSDS – Lokniti | 276 | 97 | 148 |
| [57][58] | India Today – Cicero | 272 | 115 |
156 | |
| [57][59] | News 24 – Chanakya | 340 | 70 | 133 | |
| [57] | Times Now – ORG | 249 | 148 | 146 | |
| [57][61] | ABP News – Nielsen | 274 | 97 | 165 | |
| [57] | India TV – CVoter | 289 | 101 | 148 | |
| 14 May 2014 | [62][63] | NDTV – Hansa Research | 279 | 103 | 161 |
| [64] | CNN-IBN – CSDS | 280 | 97 | 148 | |
| 12 May 2014 | [57] | Poll of Polls | 283 | 105 | 149 |
Controversy
Polling agencies have been criticised by some political parties, intellectuals and political scholars.[why?][65] One of the limitations in making predictions is the modelling the relationship between vote share and the number of seats.[66]
A controversy erupted when a lowly rated news channel News Express released footage of a sting operation named Operation Polly which alleged that a number of polling agencies were involved in malpractices such as juggling with the statistics and results. The sting was aimed to suggest that Polling agencies are fudging numbers. The allegation included global research Giants like Ipsos and CVoter, whose contract with the India Today group was suspended briefly.