Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum

Overview

Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling showed support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population—this is a slight decline from 2007, when the Scottish National Party (SNP) first formed the Scottish Government.^[4] Up until January 2012, there was an insignificant amount of poll evidence showing majority support for independence, although the share "vehemently opposed to independence" declined.^[4]

Polls in March and April 2014 showed opposition to independence at an average of 55% (excluding those who registered a "Don't know" opinion), compared to 61% in the period before December 2013.^[5] During September 2014, the month of the referendum, the poll results appeared to narrow further—as of 11 September, the average opposition to independence stood at 51%.^[6]

A poll by Survation in April 2014 suggested that a high turnout in the referendum would be likely:^[5] 75% of respondents indicated that they were certain to vote in the referendum, compared to 63% for the 2015 United Kingdom general election.^[5]

Results

Only polling companies that are members of the British Polling Council, and therefore fully disclose their findings and methodology, are shown in this section. Three methods of conducting polls were used by the polling companies for referendum polling. YouGov, Survation and Panelbase conducted polls online, although Survation's final poll was by telephone. Ipsos Mori conducted their polls by telephone, ICM conducted online and telephone polls for different clients and TNS BMRB used face to face interviews.^[7] There were variations in the questions used by each company, with TNS BMRB, ICM and Panelbase asking respondents how they intended to vote on 18 September 2014, while YouGov, Survation and Ipsos Mori asked their respondents how they would vote if the referendum were held immediately.^[7]

Headline figures from ICM, Panelbase, Survation and Ipsos MORI only showed those who say they are certain or very likely to vote in referendum. TNS BMRB and YouGov headline figures showed voting intention for all voters.

Two-option polling by other organisations

Some opinion polls were conducted by organisations that were not members of the British Polling Council and therefore not obliged to fully disclose their findings and methodology.

† The question should Scotland be an independent country? was the 26th asked question out of a total of 26.

Regional polling

ComRes conducted polls for ITV Border, surveying people in the council areas of Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway on how they would vote in an immediate referendum.^[13]

Three-option polling

Before the Edinburgh Agreement clarified that the referendum would be a straight yes or no question on the issue of independence, some three option opinion polls were conducted. The third option in these polls was some (undefined) form of increased devolution. YouGov occasionally asked the question following the Edinburgh Agreement.

Demographic polling

Polling indicated higher support for independence among male voters, voters under the age of 55 and voters from economically deprived areas, compared to higher support for the Union among female voters, voters over the age of 55 and voters living in affluent areas.^[14][15]

In June 2013, a poll of over 1,000 14- to 17-year-olds conducted by the University of Edinburgh found that 21% supported independence, 60% supported the Union, and 19% were undecided.^[16][17] Only 17% of the teenagers' households said they would vote yes in the referendum, however, which led the Newsnet Scotland website to question the accuracy of the opinion poll.^[18] A similar poll by the University of Edinburgh in June 2014 found that support for independence was 29%, opposition 52% and 19% were undecided.^[19]

Polling on individual topics

A survey by Ipsos Mori for STV News in June 2014 found that 51% of voters thought that Yes Scotland had been the more effective campaign, compared to 23% who thought that Better Together had performed better.^[20]

Opinion polling showed a majority in favour of giving control of welfare policy to the Scottish Parliament.^{[21][22][23][24]}

Early in 2013, an opinion poll commissioned by the Press and Journal found 8% of people in Shetland and Orkney supported the islands themselves becoming fully independent countries, with 82% against.^[25]

Polling on hypothetical situations

Opinion polls also asked for attitudes in various hypothetical situations, such as if how would voters would view the referendum if they believed that the Conservatives or Labour were likely to win the 2015 UK general election.^[26][27] An ICM poll in April 2014 found that the no lead would be 8 points (44–36) if voters thought Labour would win, while the no lead would be 1 point (42–41) if they thought the Conservatives would win.^[27] Other hypothetical scenarios included if voters thought the UK was likely to leave the European Union,^[28] and if people believed independence would make them £500 better or worse off per year.^[29] In August 2013, a Panelbase poll commissioned by pro-independence blog Wings Over Scotland asked voters various questions, such as whether they would vote to join the Union in the hypothetical scenario that Scotland was already an independent country.^[30] 18% of voters said they would join the Union, whereas 55% of voters said they would choose for Scotland to remain independent.^[30]

Currency

A number of polls amongst English and Welsh people were conducted to ascertain feelings on Scotland continuing to use the Pound Sterling - be it as part of a currency union or not. Although the question varied in some of the polls, the YouGov question asked: "If Scotland did become independent would you support or oppose an independent Scotland continuing to use the pound as their currency?" The Guardian/ICM poll asked "If Scotland becomes independent, the residual UK should: Refuse a currency union, negotiate a currency union or don't know?"

Although the rest of the United Kingdom did not have a vote on Scottish independence, the proposal of a currency union by the Yes campaign was rejected by the British government and the Bank of England.^[59] Some writers speculated that in the event of independence, a currency union would have been a key issue in the 2015 UK general election and may require a referendum.^{[60][61][62][63]}

YouGov conducted some polls in the rest of the United Kingdom asking whether an independent Scotland should be allowed to form a currency union with them. In November 2013, 43% opposed a currency union and 38% supported it.^[64] In February 2014, after George Osborne said that a currency union would not be allowed, opposition to a currency union increased to 58%.^[64] A further poll in April 2014 found that 53% of respondents were opposed to a currency union, with 26% in favour.^[65] A Guardian/ICM poll in September 2014, on the eve of the referendum, found that disagreement had increased further. 63% of English and Welsh people believing that the United Kingdom should refuse to negotiate a currency union, while 27% supported the idea of a currency union.^[66]

An opinion poll commissioned by the SNP in December 2013 found that 71% of respondents in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland agreed that "if independence does happen [...] Scotland and the rest of the UK should continue using the pound in an agreed sterling area".^[67] The annual British Social Attitudes Survey found that, in the summer of 2013, a total of 69% of people in England and Wales thought that an independent Scotland should either definitely (38%) or probably (31%) be allowed to continue to use sterling.^[55] Professor John Curtice said that this suggested the later opinion polls showing opposition to a currency union were the result of UK politicians saying it was a bad idea, rather than the public being opposed in principle.^[55]

Two-way polling

Respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?", with the options "I agree that Scotland should become an independent country" and "I do not agree that Scotland should become an independent country". These polls indicated the following levels of support for Scotland to be an independent country each year:^[68][69]

Three-way polling

During the late 1970s and 1980s, MORI conducted opinion polls on whether Scots wanted full independence, devolution or the status quo. During this period, devolution was the preferred option in each opinion poll, although support for independence increased.

Four-way polling

Between 1988 and 1995, MORI polled voters on independence giving four opinions: independence inside the European Economic Community (European Union after 1992), independence outside the organisation, devolution and the status quo.