Opinion polling for the 2018 Mexican general election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Opinion polling was carried out prior to the 2018 Mexican general election.
The 2018 Mexican election features nine registered political parties, including the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN), Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and the newly formed National Regeneration Movement (Morena).
Coalition backgrounds
Todos por México
PRI, which held the presidency from 1929 to 2000 and is currently in power under President Peña Nieto, is primarily a center-right party. It will be contesting the elections in a coalition alongside the Ecological Green Party of Mexico and the New Alliance Party (Mexico) under the coalition "Todos por México" ("Everyone for Mexico").
Por México al Frente
PAN is a center-right, Christian democracy[1] party which held the presidency in 2 sexenios from 2000-2012.
PRD grew out of the PRI in 1986 as the leftists who created the Corriente Democrática (Democratic Current) within PRI split off. It came quite close to claiming the presidency in 2006. Surprisingly, the PRD decided to form a coalition with the right-wing PAN, and they will contest the elections alongside Citizens' Movement in a coalition called "Por México al Frente" ("For Mexico, to the Front").[2][3][4][5]
Juntos Haremos Historia
MORENA, created in 2014 by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, affectionately called AMLO, is a left-leaning party which split from the PRD.[6] It will contest the elections as a coalition with the Labor Party (PT) and the Social Encounter Party (PES), called "Juntos Haremos Historia" ("Together we'll make history").
By coalitions
| Pollster | Date |    |
   |
   |
 |
Other | None | Not mentioned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitofsky[citation needed] | July 2017 | 21.7% | 16.7% | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 37.2% | |
| Mitofsky | August 2017 | 21.2% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 4% | 3.9% | 39.7% | |
| Parametría[7] | September 2017 | 32% | 23% | 15% | 14% | 16% | ||
| Reforma[8] | September 2017 | 24% | 31% | 28% | 8% | |||
| México Elige[9] | October 2017 | 22.5% | 36.1% | 21.8% | 11.4% | 8.2% | ||
| El Financiero[10] | November 2017 | 18% | 24% | 22% | 21% | 15% | ||
| El Economista[11] | December 2017 | 23.1% | 22.6% | 21.4% | 7.4% | 0.6% | 24.9% | |
| Parametría[12] | January 2018 | 32% | 42% | 26% | 12% | 18% | ||
| Arias Consultores[13] | January 2018 | 18.1% | 50.1% | 15.5% | 6.5% | 9.8% | ||
| SABA[14] | Feb 4-12, 2018 | 12.3% | 38.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 29% | ||
| Revista 32[15] | Feb 15-16, 2018 | 18.1% | 46.2% | 18.0% | 5.8% | 11.8% | ||
| Revista 32[16] | Mar 19-23, 2018 | 15.9% | 44.6% | 17.8% | 6.6% | 15.1% | ||
| Parametría[17] | Mar 23-28, 2018 | 25% | 36% | 20% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 2% |
| Revista 32[18] | April 23-25, 2018 | 18.1% | 46.9% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 17.3% | ||
By candidates (January–June 2018)
| Agency | Date | Obrador | Anaya | Meade | Zavala | Rodríguez | Other/None |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parametría[19] | January | 31% | 19% | 20% | 10% | 2% | 19% |
| SDP Noticias[20] | Jan 7-9 | 38.1% | 17.7% | 26.1% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 7.3% |
| Mitofsky[21] | January | 23.6% | 20.4% | 18.2% | 10% | ||
| Focus Asesores[22][23] | January | 47% | 11% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 28% |
| Arias Consultores[24] | Jan 23-25 | 56.2% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% |
| El Universal[25] | Jan 19-25 | 32% | 26% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 4.1% |
| El Financiero[26] | Jan 27-31 | 38% | 27% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| Parametría[27] | Jan 25-Feb 2 | 34% | 23% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 16% |
| Mendoza Blanco[28] | Feb 2-4 | 30% | 26% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 23% |
| SDP Noticias[29] | Feb 2-6 | 38.4% | 19.5% | 25.7% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 6.8% |
| Mitofksy[30] | Feb 9-11 | 27.1% | 22.3% | 18.0% | |||
| Reforma[31] | Feb 8-11 | 33% | 25% | 14% | 4% | 2% | 22% |
| SABA[32] | Feb 4-12 | 38.3% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 1.9% | 29% |
| Parámetro[33] | Feb 9-11 | 30.5% | 23.8% | 23.3% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 16.5% |
| Fox News[34] | Feb 9-11 | 40% | 31% | 20% | 9% | ||
| Revista 32[35] | Feb 15-16 | 48.2% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 10.9% |
| Massive Caller[36] | February | 30.55% | 24.78% | 15.4% | 7.23% | 2% | 20.04% |
| El Pais[37] | March | 37.8% | 29.2% | 23.8% | 5.7% | 2.6% | |
| Parametría[38] | Feb 24-Mar 1 | 35% | 21% | 16% | 10% | 5% | 13% |
| Bloomberg[39] | March 8 | 42.2% | 27.4% | 20.6% | 4% | 1.6% | |
| Indemerc[40] | March 8-10 | 44.1% | 15.1% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 2% | 19.7% |
| El Financiero[41] | March 9-14 | 42% | 23% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 2% |
| Arias Consultores[42] | March 19-23 | 47.8% | 14.6% | 18.1% | 6.2% | 13.2% | |
| Parametría[43] | March 23-28 | 38% | 20% | 16% | 13% | ||
| Gii 360[44] | March 30-April 3 | 43% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 18% | |
| Berumen y Asociados[45] | April 3–5 | 42% | 31.1% | 21.9% | 5% | ||
| SDP Noticias[46] | April 11–14 | 41.9% | 19.7% | 22.7% | 9% | 2.5% | |
| Reforma[47] | April 12–15 | 48% | 26% | 18% | 5% | 3% | |
| Bloomberg[48] | April 15 | 47.8% | 26.6% | 17.9% | 5.1% | ||
| SDP Noticias[49] | April 25–28 | 41.4% | 24.7% | 22.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% |
| Revista 32[50] | April 23–25 | 50.9% | 17.8% | 13.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 13.8% |
| La Silla Rota[51] | April 25-28 | 45% | 29% | 18% | 5% | 3% | |
| Reforma[52] | April 26-30 | 48% | 30% | 17% | 3% | 2% | |
| Varela y Asociados[53] | April 28-May 4 | 47.5% | 33.1% | 16.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | |
| El Financiero[54] | April 26-May 2 | 46% | 26% | 20% | 5% | 3% | |
| Ipsos[55] | May 11-15 | 43% | 24% | 16% | 2% | 15% | |
| SDP Noticias[56] | May 18-19 | 42.4% | 25.8% | 24.2% | 0.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% |
| Eje Central[57] | May 21-22 | 49% | 26% | 21% | 4% | ||
| Reforma[58] | May 24-27 | 52% | 26% | 19% | 4% | ||
| Parametría[59] | May 23-29 | 54% | 24% | 17% | 3% | 2% | |
| Varela y Asociados[60] | May 30-June 4 | 50.6% | 29.5% | 17.6% | 2.2% | ||
| BGC[61] | May 31-June 4 | 47% | 29% | 21% | 3% | ||
| De Las Heras Demotecnia[62] | June 10-13 | 50% | 25% | 19% | 5% | 1% | |
| Arias Consultores[63] | June 13-15 | 62% | 19.8% | 13.7% | 3.3% | ||
| Reforma[64] | June 20-24 | 51% | 27% | 19% | 3% | ||
| BGC[65] | June 22-25 | 49% | 26% | 21% | 4% | ||
| El Financiero[66] | June 15-23 | 54% | 21% | 22% | 3% | ||
| Presidential election | July 1 | 53.19% | 22.28% | 16.41% | 0.06% | 5.23% | |
By candidates (April–December 2017)
| Pollsters | Date | Obrador | Zavala | Chong | Mancera | Rodríguez | Anaya | Ávila | Valle | Nuño | Meade | Other | None | Not mentioned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Financiero | April 2017 | 29% | 32% | 27% | 8% | 4% | ||||||||
| El Universal | April 2017 | 33% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 4% | ||||||||
| 32% | 16% | 6% | 20% | |||||||||||
| 32% | 26% | 6% | 13% | |||||||||||
| GEA-ISA | June 2017 | 18% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 4% | ||||||
| Reforma | July 2017 | 31% | 26% | 15% | 7% | 1% | 15% | 5% | ||||||
| 30% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 14% | 4% | |||||||
| 30% | 27% | 14% | 9% | 1% | 14% | 5% | ||||||||
| 32% | 17% | 8% | 17% | 1% | 20% | 5% | ||||||||
| 33% | 17% | 16% | 8% | 1% | 19% | 6% | ||||||||
| El Financiero | July 2017 | 30% | 28% | 24% | 10% | 8% | ||||||||
| Mitofsky | August 2017 | 25.9% | 19.7% | 14.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | ||||||||
| 24.9% | 15.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 20.5% | ||||||||||
| 26.3% | 15.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 19.8% | ||||||||||
| 25.9% | 18.7% | 5.1% | 5% | 13.6% | ||||||||||
| 26.2% | 19.3% | 5% | 4.5% | 12.8% | ||||||||||
| 25.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 20.1% | 13.1% | ||||||||||
| México Elige[9] | October 2017 | 36.7% | 14.7% | 19.6% | 5.3% | 2.2% | ||||||||
| Reforma | November 2017 | 31% | 8% | 2% | 19% | 17% | 1% | 10% | 12% | |||||
| GCE[67][68] | December 2017 | 27.8% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 9.2% | 21.5% | 0.3% | 7.5% | 13.5% | ||||
| Massive Caller[69] | December 2017 | 27.2% | 9% | 9% | 18.1% | 20.4% | 4.3% | 18.2% | ||||||
By political parties
| Pollster | Date | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Other | No-one | Not mentioned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parametría Archived May 14, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | August 2015 | 29% | 23% | 9% | 21% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 3% | |||||
| GEA-ISA | March 2016 | 33% | 16% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 17% | 18% | ||||||
| Mitofsky | March 2016 | 21.5% | 16.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 4.3% | 14% | 16.7% | |
| Mitofsky[permanent dead link] | May 2016 | 22.3% | 18.6% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 28.2% | ||
| GEA-ISA | June 2016 | 28% | 19% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 11% | 21% | ||||||
| El Financiero | June 2016 | 29% | 28% | 8% | 19% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 6% | |||
| Mitofsky | July 2016 | 19.6 | 20% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 30.9% | ||
| Reforma | August 2016 | 22% | 27% | 6% | 18% | 5% | 3% | 11% | 8% | |||||
| GEA-ISA | September 2016 | 22% | 23% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 15% | 15% | ||||||
| Parametría | September 2016 | 27% | 30% | 10% | 21% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | |||
| Mitofsky | September 2016 | 19.5% | 20.2% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1% | 3.3% | 31.2% | ||
| El Financiero | November 2016 | 28% | 29% | 11% | 18% | 5% | ||||||||
| Reforma | December 2016 | 22% | 27% | 5% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 5% | |||||
| Massive Caller Archived July 2, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | January 2017 | 12.8% | 20.48% | 5.5% | 21.68% | 1.6% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 23.9% | |||||
| Reforma[permanent dead link] | January 2017 | 17% | 24% | 10% | 27% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 6% | |||||
| El Financiero | February 2017 | 22% | 25% | 9% | 25% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 6% | |||
| Mitofsky | February 2017 | 13% | 18.8% | 5.1% | 15.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 38.5% | ||
| México Elige | February 2017 | 12.4% | 21.0% | 1.2% | 36.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 14.5% | |||
| GEA-ISA | March 2017 | 19% | 20% | 7% | 15% | 5% | 17% | 18% | ||||||
| El Financiero | April 2017 | 28% | 29% | 10% | 21% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | |||
| Excelsior | April 2017 | 19% | 21% | 8% | 26% | 2% | 24% | |||||||
| El Universal | April 2017 | 13% | 27% | 6% | 33% | 4% | ||||||||
| El Universal | April 2017 | 13% | 23% | 6% | 24% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 17% | |||
| Parametría[12] | January 2018 | 25% | 24% | 5% | 30% | 12% | 18% | |||||||
| SDP Noticias[29] | Feb 2-6, 2018 | 20.6% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 36.0% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 11.2% | 5.4% | ||
| SABA[70] | Feb 4-12 | 9.4% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 30.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 8.4% | 0.6% | 15.7% | 16.8% | |
| Parametría[17] | Mar 23-28 | 15% | 15% | 5% | 29% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 15% |
| Gii 360[71] | March 30-April 3, 2018 | 12% | 14% | 2% | 34% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 26% | ||