Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election by constituency
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2021 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.
Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.
Constituency polls
Alberta
Banff—Airdrie
Calgary Skyview
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Griesbach
Edmonton Mill Woods
British Columbia
Burnaby North—Seymour
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | September 7, 2021 | 28.1 | 29.6 | 26 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 7.9 | ±5 pp | 379 | IVR | |
| Mainstreet Research | August 5, 2021 | HTML | 32.8 | 22.7 | 13.2 | N/A | N/A | 6.2 | 25.1 | ±4.1 pp | 558 | IVR |
| 2019 Election | October 21, 2019 | HTML | 35.5 | 19.5 | 32.3 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 1 | N/A | ±0.0 pp | 50,525 | Election |
Cloverdale—Langley City
Delta
Nanaimo—Ladysmith
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
Port Moody—Coquitlam
Surrey Centre
Vancouver Granville
Vancouver South
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | September 5, 2021 | 25.1 | 42.3 | 15.1 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 5.4 | ±3.8 pp | 662 | IVR | |
| Mainstreet Research | August 5, 2021 | HTML | 23.1 | 27.5 | 19.4 | 11.9 | N/A | 4 | 14.1 | ±3.9 pp | 624 | IVR |
| 2019 Election | October 21, 2019 | HTML | 34.9 | 26.7 | 13.9 | 22.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | N/A | ±0.0 pp | 64,980 | Election |
Manitoba
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley
Kildonan—St. Paul
Winnipeg South
Newfoundland and Labrador
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity
St. John’s East
New Brunswick
Fredericton
Saint John—Rothesay
Nova Scotia
Cape Breton—Canso
Sydney—Victoria
West Nova
Ontario
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | August 23, 2021 | HTML[link removed] | 47 | 34 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 2 | N/A | ±5 pp | 309 | IVR |
| 2019 Election | October 21, 2019 | HTML | 42.4 | 44.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | N/A | ±0.0 pp | 53,109 | Election |
Davenport
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Kanata—Carleton
King—Vaughan
Kitchener Centre
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | September 18, 2021 | HTML | 34 | 27 | 13 | 20 | 5 | 0 | N/A | ±5.9 pp | 287 | IVR |
| Mainstreet Research | August 24, 2021 | 27.8 | 23.4 | 23.6 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 5.5 | ±5.9 pp | 280 | IVR | |
| Mainstreet Research | August 5, 2021 | HTML | 25.8 | 17.9 | 11.1 | 14.3 | N/A | 4 | 26.8 | ±4 pp | 601 | IVR |
| 2019 Election | October 21, 2019 | HTML | 36.7 | 23.8 | 11.3 | 26 | 1.9 | 0.4 | N/A | ±0.0 pp | 55,374 | Election |
Niagara Centre
Oakville
Ottawa Centre
Parkdale—High Park
Peterborough—Kawartha
Spadina—Fort York
St. Catharines
Toronto Centre
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | August 5, 2021 | HTML | 39.9 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 15.5 | N/A | 2.3 | 24.3 | ±4.1 pp | 574 | IVR |
| 2020 By-election | October 26, 2020 | HTML | 42 | 5.7 | 17 | 32.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | N/A | ±0.0 pp | 25,205 | Election |
| 2019 Election | October 21, 2019 | HTML | 57.4 | 12.1 | 22.3 | 7.1 | N/A | 1.2 | N/A | ±0.0 pp | 54,512 | Election |
Windsor—Tecumseh
Prince Edward Island
Malpeque
Quebec
Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Beauport—Limoilou
Berthier—Maskinongé
Châteauguay—Lacolle
Jonquière
La Prairie
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
Pontiac
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
Shefford
Thérèse-De Blainville
Trois-Rivières
Saskatchewan
Saskatoon West
See also
Notes
Notes
- 1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[2]
- 2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
- 3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.