Opinion polling for the 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum

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Opinion polling on whether to change the Australian Constitution to establish an Indigenous Voice has been conducted since 2017, when Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leaders petitioned for such an amendment as part of the Uluru Statement from the Heart.[1] The number of these polls conducted grew substantially following Labor's victory in the 2022 federal election; the party had committed to holding the referendum required for this constitutional change in its first term of government.[2]

At least ten firms polled Australians on the proposed amendment, greater than the number who have polled party support for any previous Australian election.[2] Some firms were commissioned by media organisations, think tanks, advocacy groups or university foundations. Other firms self-initiated their polls for market research or strategic communications purposes.[2] Considering methodologies, polls were almost exclusively conducted online, with only one firm using SMS. Pollsters differed on whether to give a forced-choice question, as is done in actual Australian referendums, or allow respondents to express indecision or lack of knowledge. Some pollsters also used Likert-style questions to allow respondents to express how strong their opinion is.[2]

The Australian Constitution requires a proposed amendment to attain a double majority in the referendum – not only a majority of votes nationwide, but also a majority in at least four of the six states. Because of this requirement, the level of support in each state was of special interest.[2] One way pollsters investigated state-level support was to break down results from national polls. However, these polls sometimes did not survey enough people from each state to give reliable results about state-level support, especially for smaller states like Tasmania and South Australia. Another way pollsters investigated was by specifically surveying people from a particular state.[2]

Pollsters also often broke down their results by age, gender, and party affiliation. The last was of particular interest because bipartisan support is often considered necessary for an Australian referendum to pass, though it is not a formal requirement.[2]

The extent of support for the Voice among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians was a key point of discussion. All publicly available polling indicated absolute majorities among this group favouring the Voice. Important caveats include the small sample size associated with certain polls, the length of time elapsed since the polls were conducted, and the lack of publicly available results and methodologies for certain polls.[3]

External poll aggregations
image icon Nick Evershed and Josh Nicholas for The Guardian
image icon Kevin Bonham, electoral analyst[3]
image icon Simon Jackman, University of Sydney professor[3]
Graphical summary – binary choice

National poll results

Subpopulation results

Results by state

Polls on establishing an Indigenous Voice
Date(s) Firm Sample New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia South Australia Tasmania Ref.
Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK
25 September–14 October 2023 Australian Electoral Commission 15,895,231 41.0% 59.0% — 45.9% 54.1% — 31.8% 68.2% — 36.7% 63.3% — 35.8% 64.1% — 41.1% 58.9% — [4]
14 October 2023 Voting day for all in-person voting across Australia. [5]
3–12 October 2023 Newspoll 3863 41% 54% 5% 43% 51% 6% 30% 65% 5% 28% 65% 7% 33% 60% 7% 38% 55% 7% [7]
2–12 October 2023 Roy Morgan 1419 46% 49% 5% 54% 42% 4% 30% 64% 6% 44% 54% 2% 39% 51% 10% 47% 52% 1% [9]
6–9 October 2023 JWS Research 922 40% 52% 8% 44% 44% 11% 33% 56% 11% 28% 64% 7% 40% 56% 4% — — — [11]
1–9 October 2023 DemosAU 2251 — — — — — — 30% 57% 12% 30% 57% 13% — — — — — — [112]
22 September–4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic 4728 48% 52% — 46% 54% — 36% 64% — 39% 61% — 44% 56% — 56% 44% — [15]
27 September–1 October 2023 Essential 1125 42% 50% 8% 43% 45% 12% 39% 56% 4% — — — — — — — — — [18]
18–24 September 2023 Roy Morgan 1511 40% 42% 18% 46% 42% 12% 31% 49% 20% 30% 46% 24% 36% 48% 16% 56% 43% 1% [22]
13–21 September 2023 RedBridge 1500 42% 58% — 41% 59% — 32% 68% — — — — — — — — — — [27]
13–16 September 2023 Essential 1135 47% 44% 8% 45% 47% 8% 30% 60% 10% — — — — — — — — — [30]
September 2023 Fair Australia 637 — — — — — — — — — 36% 59% 5% — — — — — — [113][114]
8–9 September 2023 Painted Dog 1285 — — — — — — — — — 39% 61% — — — — — — — [115]
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic 1604 44% 56% — 49% 51% — 39% 61% — 39% 61% — 41% 59% — 56% 44% — [31]
30 August–4 September 2023 RedBridge 1001 39% 61% — 45% 55% — 35% 65% — — — — — — — — — — [32][33][116]
30 August–3 September 2023 Essential 1151 45% 44% 10% 43% 44% 12% 35% 58% 8% 34% 58% 8% 37% 45% 17% — — — [34]
21 August 2023 Insightfully 1156 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 42% 53% 5% [117]
16–21 August 2023 SEC Newgate 1200 48% 52% — 51% 49% — 37% 63% — 37% 63% — 46% 54% — — — — [37][118]
July–August 2023 Resolve Strategic 3213 46% 54% — 51% 49% — 41% 59% — 44% 56% — 46% 54% — 55% 45% — [39]
1–7 August 2023 Australia Institute 605 — — — — — — — — — — — — 43% 39% 18% — — — [119]
2–5 August 2023 Essential 1150 41% 47% 12% 47% 46% 7% 40% 51% 9% 39% 48% 13% 45% 48% 7% — — — [40]
21–27 July 2023 RedBridge 1022 44% 56% — 45% 55% — 37% 63% — — — — — — — — — — [42]
18–20 July 2023 Utting Research 1000 — — — — — — — — — 29% 58% 13% — — — — — — [120]
June–July 2023 Resolve Strategic 3216 49% 51% — 52% 48% — 42% 58% — 49% 51% — 49% 51% — 54% 46% — [43]
5–9 July 2023 Essential 1125 45% 44% 11% 48% 39% 13% 42% 50% 8% 49% 47% 4% 49% 38% 13% — — — [46]
29 June–2 July 2023 Freshwater Strategy 1065 — — — — — — 36% 50% 14% — — — — — — — — — [121]
31 May–24 June 2023 Newspoll 3852 46% 41% 13% 48% 41% 11% 40% 54% 6% 39% 52% 9% 45% 46% 9% 43% 48% 9% [50]
17–19 June 2023 Institute of Public Affairs 660 — — — — — — — — — — — — 39% 42% 19% — — — [122]
17 June 2023[a] Painted Dog 1050 — — — — — — — — — 57% 43% — — — — — — — [123]
7–11 June 2023 Essential 1123 62% 38% — 62% 38% — 57% 43% — 52% 48% — 53% 47% — — — — [60]
2–6 June 2023 JWS Research 1122 41% 47% 12% 44% 42% 14% 45% 46% 9% 61% 33% 6% 43% 42% 15% — — — [55]
May–June 2023 Resolve Strategic 3217 53% 47% — 56% 44% — 44% 56% — 49% 51% — 48% 52% — 57% 43% — [54]
26–29 May 2023 Roy Morgan 1833 48% 38% 14% 47% 32% 21% 39% 46% 15% 41% 35% 24% 47% 32% 21% 42% 26% 32% [57]
26 May 2023[a] Finder 982 48% 38% 13% 51% 35% 14% 43% 44% 13% 49% 42% 10% 43% 44% 13% — — — [58]
10–14 May 2023 Essential 1080 64% 36% — 61% 39% — 49% 51% — 52% 48% — 61% 39% — — — — [60]
14–18 April 2023 Roy Morgan 1181 46% 38% 16% 52% 31% 17% 41% 46% 13% 46% 41% 13% 39% 50% 11% 38% 33% 29% [64]
13–18 April 2023 SEC Newgate 1200 54% 26% 20% 60% 20% 20% 41% 34% 25% 43% 30% 27% — — — — — — [65]
12–16 April 2023 Essential 1136 59% 41% — 56% 44% — 55% 45% — 70% 30% — 64% 36% — — — — [60]
5 April 2023 The federal Liberal Party announces its opposition. [124]
February–April 2023 Newspoll 4756 55% 36% 9% 56% 35% 9% 49% 43% 8% 51% 41% 8% 60% 33% 7% 55% 39% 6% [72]
25–26 March 2023 Painted Dog 1052 — — — — — — — — — 54% 35% 11% — — — — — — [b][125]
1–21 March 2023 YouGov 15060 52% 32% 16% 53% 31% 16% 47% 40% 14% 48% 37% 15% 51% 34% 16% 50% 35% 15% [73]
15–19 March 2023 Essential 1124 61% 39% — 67% 33% — 49% 51% — 55% 45% — 62% 38% — — — — [60]
February–March 2023 Resolve Strategic 1600 — — — — — — 52% 48% — 52% 48% — — — — — — — [76]
24–27 February 2023 JWS Research 940 52% 32% 16% 54% 35% 11% 48% 38% 13% 50% 42% 9% 46% 38% 15% — — — [78]
1–5 February 2023 Essential 1000 63% 37% — 64% 36% — 65% 35% — 68% 32% — 62% 38% — — — — [60]
December 2022–January 2023 Resolve Strategic 3217 58% 42% — 65% 35% — 56% 44% — 61% 39% — 56% 44% — 71% 29% — [86]
14–17 January 2023 YouGov 1069 46% 30% 24% — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — [126][127]
2–6 January 2023 Painted Dog 1124 — — — — — — — — — 51% 27% 22% — — — — — — [128]
9–12 December 2022 Roy Morgan 1499 52% 29% 19% 55% 28% 17% 44% 38% 18% 63% 26% 11% 54% 33% 13% 68% 24% 8% [88]
7–11 December 2022 Essential 1075 66% 34% — 66% 34% — 56% 44% — 56% 44% — 60% 40% — — — — [60]
28 November 2022 The federal National Party announces its opposition. [91]
5–10 October 2022 SEC Newgate 1207 56% — — 60% — — 53% — — 49% — — 53% — — — — — [2]
August–September 2022 Resolve Strategic 3618 65% 35% — 64% 36% — 59% 41% — 60% 40% — 71% 29% — 73% 27% — [92]
12–15 August 2022 JWS Research 1000 43% 24% 34% 44% 17% 39% 38% 31% 31% 40% 25% 36% 40% 27% 33% — — — [93]
3–7 August 2022 Essential 1075 65% 35% — 63% 37% — 62% 38% — 75% 25% — 60% 40% — — — — [60]
30 July 2022 PM Anthony Albanese reveals draft amendment wording. [129]
11–24 July 2022 Scanlon Institute 5757 62% — — 62% — — 51% — — 59% — — 57% — — — — — [2]
13–15 July 2022 Australia Institute 1001 62% 12% 25% 71% 12% 17% 66% 11% 23% 63% 22% 15% — — — — — — [96]
14–17 June 2022 Australia Institute 1001 59% 15% 26% 57% 13% 30% 57% 21% 22% 57% 22% 21% — — — — — — [96]
21 May 2022 Labor wins the 2022 federal election, pledging a first-term referendum. [130]
9–18 February 2021 Omnipoll 1456 63% 10% 27% 67% 11% 22% 57% 16% 27% 59% 14% 28% 57% 11% 32% 74% 11% 15% [c][102]
5–7 December 2017 Australia Institute 1417 50% 28% 22% 51% 24% 25% 41% 33% 26% 36% 38% 26% 45% 26% 30% — — — [1]
3–10 August 2017 Omnipoll 1526 62% 29% 9% 63% 28% 9% 60% 33% 7% 57% 33% 11% 56% 31% 13% 44% 49% 7% [1]
26 May 2017 In the Uluru Statement, Indigenous leaders call for a constitutional Voice. [131]

Results by party affiliation

Date(s) Firm Sample Labor Coalition Greens One Nation Other Ref.
Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK
14 October 2023 Voting day for all in-person voting across Australia. [5]
2–12 October 2023 Roy Morgan 1419 72% 18% 10% 10% 81% 9% 83% 10% 7% — — — 30% 61% 9% [d][9]
6–10 October 2023 YouGov 1519 53% 40% 8% 20% 75% 3% 70% 25% 5% — — — — — — [10]
3–6 October 2023 Newspoll 1225 56% 36% 8% — — — — — — — — — — — — [14]
22 September–4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic 4728 67% 33% — 16% 84% — 80% 20% — — — — — — — [15]
18 September–2 October 2023 Focaldata 4608 55% 45% — 18% 82% — 73% 27% — 12% 88% — 24% 76% — [e][17]
25–29 September 2023 YouGov 1563 49% 41% 10% 22% 73% 5% 70% 24% 6% — — — — — — [132]
22–24 September 2023 Freshwater Strategy 1003 51% 31% 18% 20% 71% 9% — — — — — — — — — [21]
18–24 September 2023 Roy Morgan 1833 67% 18% 15% 12% 76% 12% 83% 5% 12% 2% 94% 4% 22% 62% 16% [f][133]
18–22 September 2023 Newspoll 1239 56% 36% 8% — — — — — — — — — — — — [23][24]
13–21 September 2023 RedBridge 1500 51% 49% — 19% 81% — 75% 25% — — — — 28% 72% — [134]
13–16 September 2023 Essential 1135 58% 33% 8% 26% 70% 4% 70% 20% 10% — — — 24% 71% 5% [135]
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic 1604 60% 40% — 16% 84% — 78% 22% — — — — — — — [31]
30 August–4 September 2023 RedBridge 1001 57% 43% — 13% 87% — 77% 23% — — — — 20% 80% — [32][33][116]
5 September 2023 Essential 1043 61% 39% — 26% 74% — 71% 29% — — — — 18% 82% — [136]
28 August–1 September 2023 Newspoll 1200 61% 31% 8% — — — 64% 26% 10% — — — — — — [35]
2–5 August 2023 Essential 1043 58% 8% 34% 25% 68% 7% 70% 19% 11% — — — 30% 64% 6% [137]
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic 1610 50% 28% 23% 17% 64% 19% 69% 12% 19% — — — 20% 58% 22% [43]
5–9 July 2023 Essential 1022 64% 26% 10% 33% 60% 7% 73% 18% 9% — — — 25% 68% 25% [46]
4–7 July 2023 Australia Institute 1004 65% 21% 14% 37% 49% 14% 74% 8% 18% 14% 78% 8% 36% 40% 24% [47]
19 June 2023 The Constitutional Amendment bill passes through the Senate. [138]
7–11 June 2023 Essential 1123 72% 28% — 43% 57% — 83% 17% — — — — 38% 62% — [52]
5–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic 1606 56% 28% 16% 20% 63% 17% 76% 13% 11% — — — 23% 57% 20% [g][54]
31 May–3 June 2023 Newspoll 1549 63% — — — 64% — 71% — — — — — — 64% — [56]
26–29 May 2023 Roy Morgan 1833 67% 12% 21% 10% 73% 17% 90% 3% 7% 2% 86% 12% 30% 50% 20% [h][57]
10–14 May 2023 Essential 1136 71% 29% — 45% 55% — 81% 19% — — — — 41% 59% — [60]
10–13 May 2023 Resolve Strategic 1610 69% 31% — 27% 73% — 83% 17% — — — — — — — [62]
14–18 April 2023 Roy Morgan 1181 75% 14% 11% 6% 74% 20% 89% 5% 6% 7% 89% 4% 21% 50% 29% [i][139]
13–18 April 2023 SEC Newgate 1200 — — — 26% 50% 24% — — — — — — — — — [65]
12–16 April 2023 Essential 1136 76% 24% — 41% 59% — 81% 18% — — — — 45% 54% — [67]
5 April 2023 The federal Liberal Party announces its opposition. [124]
29 March–1 April 2023 Newspoll 1500 72% — — — 55% — — — — — — — — — — [72]
15–19 March 2023 Essential 1124 78% 22% — 43% 57% — 77% 23% — — — — 41% 59% — [75]
12–16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic 1600 72% 28% — 33% 67% — 86% 14% — — — — 44% 56% — [76]
1–4 March 2023 Newspoll 1530 68% 21% 11% 35% — — — — — — — — — — — [77]
1–6 February 2023 SEC Newgate 1478 65% — — 32% 43% 25% 77% — — — — — — — — [81]
1–5 February 2023 Essential 1000 77% 23% — 41% 59% — 89% 11% — — — — 52% 48% — [83]
1–4 February 2023 Newspoll 1512 74% 18% 8% 37% 59% 4% 81% 10% 9% — — — 41% 53% 6% [84]
December 2022–January 2023 Resolve Strategic 3217 61% — — 27% — — 72% — — — — — 45% — — [j][86][2]
9–12 December 2022 Roy Morgan 1499 76% 9% 15% 15% 64% 21% 89% 2% 9% 18% 71% 11% 59% 25% 16% [k][88]
7–11 December 2022 Essential 1075 75% 25% — 46% 54% — 84% 16% — — — — 51% 49% — [89][2]
28 November – 2 December 2022 Institute of Public Affairs 1000 45% 27% 28% 30% 49% 21% 57% 10% 33% 21% 50% 29% 27% 32% 41% [l][90]
28 November 2022 The federal National Party announces its opposition. [91]
5–10 October 2022 SEC Newgate 1207 64% — — 37% — — 78% — — — — — — — — [2]
7 October 2022 Compass Polling 1001 75% 25% — 45% 55% — 82% 18% — 12% 88% — 52% 48% — [m][2]
11–15 August 2022 SEC Newgate 1804 55% — — 41% — — 83% — — — — — 47% — — [2]
3–7 August 2022 Essential 1075 77% 23% — 53% 47% — 81% 19% — — — — 56% 44% — [94][2]
30 July 2022 PM Anthony Albanese reveals draft amendment wording. [129]
11–24 July 2022 Scanlon Institute 5757 70% — — 40% — — 86% — — — — — 46% — — [2]
13–15 July 2022 Australia Institute 1001 70% 8% 22% 56% 23% 21% 82% 7% 12% 59% 25% 16% 65% 7% 28% [96][2]
14–17 June 2022 Australia Institute 1001 60% 8% 23% 49% 26% 25% 71% 15% 15% 35% 28% 37% 48% 13% 39% [96][2]
25–30 May 2022 Essential 1089 66% — — 44% — — 77% — — — — — 50% — — [97][2]
23–27 May 2022 SEC Newgate 1403 69% — — 40% — — 82% — — — — — 55% — — [2]
21 May 2022 Labor wins the 2022 federal election, pledging a first-term referendum. [130]
2–6 May 2019 Essential 1079 55% — — 31% — — 65% — — — — — 37% — — [106][1]
15–18 February 2018 Newspoll 1632 76% 16% 8% 38% 48% 14% 87% 10% 3% 38% 50% 12% — — — [1]
5–7 December 2017 Australia Institute 1417 50% 26% 24% 41% 35% 24% 75% 10% 15% 23% 48% 29% 41% 28% 31% [1]
3–6 November 2017 Essential 1025 61% — — 37% 24% 39% 67% — — — — — — — — [140][1]
3–10 August 2017 Omnipoll 1526 67% 24% 9% 55% 41% 4% 80% 10% 10% — — — 45% 46% 9% [1]
1–5 June 2017 Essential 1013 51% — — — — — 74% — — — — — — — — [109][1]
26 May 2017 In the Uluru Statement, Indigenous leaders call for a constitutional Voice. [131]

Other polls

Notes

References

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