Opinion polling for the 2023 Guatemalan general election
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In the run up to the Guatemalan general election scheduled to take place on 25 June 2023, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Guatemala. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.
Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.
Graphical summary
Official campaign polling
The table below contains polls conducted after the official start of the campaign period in March 2023.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Arévalo Semilla |
Castillo VIVA |
Conde Vamos |
Mulet Cabal |
Pineda PC |
Ríos Valor–PU |
Rivera Victory |
Torres UNE |
Villacorta VOS |
Others | No one | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 general election | 25 June 2023 | — | 15.5% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.8% | — | 8.7% | 3.3% | 21.1% | 5.6% | 17.2% | — | ||||
| Carlos Pineda[1] | 21 Jun 2023 | — | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 17.9% | — | 16.1% | 2.4% | 16.6% | 13.8% | 14.3%[a] | 3.4% | ||||
| Espacio Muestral[2] | 16–19 Jun 2023 | 1,200 | — | — | — | 15.5% | — | 19.1% | — | 17.8% | 11.4% | 36.2% | |||||
| C&E Research[3] | 13 Jun 2023 | 400 | — | 1.0% | — | 21.0% | — | 22.0% | 1.0% | 23.0% | 9.0% | 23.0% | — | ||||
| Grupo Impacto 360[4] | 9–12 Jun 2023 | 900 | — | — | — | 16.8% | — | 25.5% | — | 21.5% | — | 17.3% | 18.9% | ||||
| Prodatos / Prensa Libre[5] | 5–14 Jun 2023 | 1,202 | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 13.4% | — | 9.1% | 5.3% | 21.3% | 5.2% | 18.3%[b] | 13.5% | ||||
| ConDatos[6] | Jun 2023 | 840 | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 13.6% | — | 11.1% | 5.0% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 19.1%[c] | 9.4% | ||||
| TResearch International[7] | 31 May–6 Jun 2023 | 1,004 | — | — | 8.3% | 16.0% | — | 19.8% | — | 19.2% | 1.4% | 19.2% | — | ||||
| 4.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 11.9% | 14.7% | 17.3% | 1.6% | 15.9% | — | 22.1%[d] | 7.6% | |||||||
| 19 May 2023 | Carlos Pineda's candidacy was suspended by the courts[8][9] | ||||||||||||||||
| Grupo Impacto 360[10] | 17–20 May 2023 | 900 | — | — | — | 14.6% | 20.1% | 22.9% | — | 17.9% | — | 13.2% | 11.3% | ||||
| Innovem / La Voz de Xela[11] | 16–21 May 2023 | 8,176 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 8.0% | 16.5% | 10.0% | 1.2% | 20.0% | 1.5% | 7.5%[e] | 31.3% | ||||
| CID Gallup / Con Criterio[12] | 10–20 May 2023 | 1,204 | — | 2.0% | 4.0% | 14.0% | 22.0% | 16.0% | 2.0% | 20.0% | 2.0% | 11.0% | 7.0% | ||||
| — | 2.0% | 4.0% | 21.0% | — | 19.0% | 2.0% | 23.0% | 2.0% | 12.0% | 16.0% | |||||||
| TResearch International[13] | 3–9 May 2023 | 1,000 | — | — | 2.3% | 16.3% | 20.9% | 19.6% | — | 17.4% | 4.1% | 12.3% | 7.1% | ||||
| Massive Caller[14] | May 2023 | 1,000 | — | — | 3.8% | 13.5% | 19.8% | 8.6% | — | 5.2% | — | 17.2% | 31.9% | ||||
| TResearch International[15] | 26 Apr–2 May 2023 | 1,000 | — | — | 3.4% | 17.5% | 18.0% | 19.2% | — | 18.4% | 4.0% | 13.7% | 5.7% | ||||
| Nuestro Diario[16] | 19–26 Apr 2023 | 1,723 | 2.0% | — | 2.4% | 10.4% | 28.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 10.3% | 4.7% | 19.0% | 11.6% | ||||
| C&E Research[17] | 16–22 Apr 2023 | 2,400 | — | 1.6% | 3.4% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 1.0% | 16.5% | — | 8.8%[f] | 33.2% | ||||
| 1.0% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 1.7% | 17.5% | — | 15.0%[g] | 24.8% | |||||||
| Prodatos / Prensa Libre[18] | 14–23 Apr 2023 | 1,202 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 5.0% | 10.1% | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 19.5% | 3.1% | 17.8%[h] | 6.3% | ||||
| TResearch International[19] | 17 Apr 2023 | — | — | — | 4.5% | 19.1% | 10.2% | 22.1% | — | 17.8% | 3.9% | 15.2% | 7.2% | ||||
| Massive Caller[20] | Apr 2023 | 1,000 | — | — | 3.2% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 13.5% | — | 6.9% | — | 15.8% | 35.2% | ||||
| TResearch International[21] | 8–12 Mar 2023 | 1,000 | — | — | 4.7% | 16.5% | 8.2% | 23.2% | — | 17.7% | 4.9% | 13.4% | 11.4% | ||||
Sub-national polling
Quetzaltenango
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Clavería My Family |
Conde Vamos |
Mulet Cabal |
Ríos Valor–PU |
Torres UNE |
Villacorta VOS |
Others | No one |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Innovem / La Voz de Xela[11] | 16–21 May 2023 | — | 9.6% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 15.7% | 20.5% | 7.2% | 27.7%[i] | — |
Pre-campaign polling
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Arzú Podemos |
Cabrera MLP |
Mulet Cabal |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor–PU |
Others | No one |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massive Caller[22] | 10 March 2023 | 1,000 | — | — | 13.5% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 28.8%[j] | 34.5% |
| CID Gallup[23] | 24 Jan–4 Feb 2023 | 1,200 | 13% | 7% | 10% | 20% | 21% | 15%[k] | 14% |
| Massive Caller[24] | Feb 2023 | 1,000 | 4.8% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 7.5% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 35.6% |
| Massive Caller[25] | 7 Jan 2023 | 1,000 | 6.2% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 14.4% | 13.4%[l] | 34.3% |
| Massive Caller[26] | Dec 2022 | 1,000 | 3.6% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 6.0% | 13.1% | 16.2%[m] | 37.8% |
| CID Gallup[27] | Dec 2022 | – | 9% | 5% | 4% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 40% |
| Massive Caller[28] | Nov 2022 | 1,000 | 4.6% | 7.1% | 15.7% | 5.4% | 14.1% | 17.3%[n] | 34.3% |
| CID Gallup / Con Criterio[29] | 9 Oct 2022 | 1,202 | 8.0% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 22.0% | 21.0%[o] | 18.0% |
| Massive Caller[30] | 9 Oct 2022 | 1,000 | 5.1% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 5.8% | 15.5% | 12.0%[p] | 38.3% |
| C&E Research[31] | 28 Sep 2022 | 600 | 15.0% | 14.0% | 11.0% | 21.0% | 32.0% | 7.0%[q] | N/A |
| Massive Caller[32] | Sep 2022 | 1,000 | 4.8% | 11.4% | 13.3% | 5.6% | 14.9% | 12.8%[r] | 37.2% |
| J. Napolitan y Asociados[33] | 5–9 Sep 2022 | 1,800 | 11.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 14.9% | 16.4% | 13.5%[s] | 32.3% |
| Datum[33] | 29–31 Aug 2022 | 1,200 | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 14% | 20%[t] | 31% |
| C&E Research[34] | 3 Jul 2022 | 585 | 7.0% | 5.0% | 16.0% | 29.0% | 31.0% | 12.0%[u] | N/A |
| TResearch International[35] | 3–5 May 2022 | 1,000 | 5.2% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 25.2% | 40.2% | |
Second round
Official campaign polling
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Arévalo Semilla |
Torres UNE |
Blank/ Null | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second round | 20 August 2023 | — | 60.9% | 39.1% | — | ||||||||||||
| Prodatos / Prensa Libre[36] | 10–14 August 2023 | 1,200 | 64.9% | 35.1% | — | ||||||||||||
| 53.6% | 29.0% | 17.4% | |||||||||||||||
| CID Gallup[37] | 4–13 August 2023 | 1,819 | 64.0% | 36.0% | — | ||||||||||||
| CID Gallup[38] | 18–27 July 2023 | 1,242 | 63.0% | 37.0% | — | ||||||||||||
| Innovem[39] | 20–26 July 2023 | 3,773 | 37.8% | 45.0% | 17.2% | ||||||||||||