Opinion polling for the 2024 Mexican general election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This is a list of public opinion polls relating to the 2024 Mexican general election. Polls have been carried out by various organizations and aggregated by Oraculus, the College of Specialists in Public Opinion Polling and Surveys (CEDE), Polls.mx, Bloomberg, and Expansión Política.
Polling aggregations
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
 |
.jpg) |
.jpg) |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheinbaum SHH |
Gálvez FCM |
Máynez MC | ||||
| Oraculus | through May 2024 | 29 May 2024 | 53% | 36% | 11% | 17% |
| CEDE | through 28 May 2024 | 29 May 2024 | 56% | 33.3% | 10.7% | 22.7% |
| Polls.mx | through 29 May 2024 | 29 May 2024 | 55% | 31% | 13% | 24% |
| Bloomberg | through 28 May 2024 | 29 May 2024 | 55.3% | 34% | 10.7% | 21.3% |
| Expansión Política | through 28 May 2024 | 29 May 2024 | 53.16% | 33.76% | 10.36% | 19.4% |
| Average | 54.5% | 33.6% | 11.2% | 20.9% | ||
By candidates
Campaigning period
Polls taken during the official campaigning period (1 March to 29 May 2024).[1]
| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample | |
|
|
Others/
Undecided |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheinbaum SHH |
Gálvez FCM |
Máynez MC | |||||
| 29 May 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[2] | 1,800 | 47.3% | 40.7% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 6.6% |
| 25-28 May 2024 | Áltica[3] | 1,800 | 50.4% | 38.6% | 9.7% | 1.3% | 11.8% |
| 25-28 May 2024 | AtlasIntel | 4,084 | 48.2% | 34.9% | 16.1% | 0.8% | 13.3% |
| 24-26 May 2024 | MEBA[4] | 1,000 | 51.3% | 22.9% | 10.1% | 15.7% | 28.4% |
| 21-26 May 2024 | Reforma[5] | 1,000 | 55% | 35% | 10% | – | 20% |
| 21-24 May 2024 | Mitofsky[6] | 1,200 | 50% | 27.4% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 22.6% |
| 19 May 2024 | Third presidential debate held. | ||||||
| 11-13 May 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[7] | 1,800 | 47.7% | 40.1% | 9% | 3.2% | 7.6% |
| 11 May 2024 | C&E Mexico[8] | 600 | 55% | 32% | 13% | – | 23% |
| 3-6 May 2024 | Mitofsky[9] | 1,600 | 48.9% | 28.1% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 20.8% |
| 4-5 May 2024 | TResearch[10] | 2,000 | 52.4% | 29% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 23.4% |
| 2-5 May 2024 | Áltica[11] | 2,500 | 50% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 10% |
| 30 April 2024 | C&E Mexico[8] | 600 | 55% | 34% | 11% | – | 21% |
| 29-30 April 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[12] | 1,800 | 48.9% | 40.4% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 8.5% |
| 28 April 2024 | Second presidential debate held. | ||||||
| 27-28 April 2024 | TResearch | 2,000 | 53% | 28.5% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 24.5% |
| 26 April 2024 | MetricsMX[13] | 1,200 | 54.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 33.1% |
| 17-24 April 2024 | El Financiero[14] | 1,360 | 49% | 32% | 8% | 11% | 17% |
| 20-21 April 2024 | TResearch[15] | 2,000 | 53.8% | 30.1% | 4.4% | 11.7% | 23.7% |
| 19-21 April 2024 | MEBA[16] | 1,500 | 51.2% | 24.6% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 26.6% |
| 14-16 April 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[17] | 1,800 | 49.7% | 40.8% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 8.9% |
| 14 April 2024 | C&E Mexico[18] | 600 | 59% | 33% | 8% | – | 26% |
| 13-14 April 2024 | TResearch[19] | 2,000 | 54.3% | 30.2% | 4% | 11.5% | 24.1% |
| 11-14 April 2024 | GEA-ISA[20] | 1,070 | 49% | 34% | 6% | 11% | 15% |
| 11-14 April 2024 | Áltica[21] | 1,000 | 51% | 39% | 5% | 5% | 12% |
| 8-14 April 2024 | Enkoll[22] | 2,590 | 54% | 30% | 7% | 9% | 24% |
| 10-13 April 2024 | Mitofsky[23] | 1,600 | 51.4% | 26.7% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 24.7% |
| 7 April 2024 | First presidential debate held. | ||||||
| 3-5 April 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[24] | 1,800 | 50.7% | 40.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 9.8% |
| 1 April 2024 | El Financiero[25] | 1,200 | 51% | 34% | 7% | 8% | 17% |
| 28-31 March 2024 | Áltica[26] | 1,000 | 50% | 38% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
| 25 March 2024 | MetricsMX[27] | 1,200 | 57.1% | 23.7% | 4.4% | 14.8% | 33.4% |
| 22-24 March 2024 | MEBA[28] | 1,500 | 53.5% | 28.9% | 6% | 11.6% | 24.6% |
| 14-17 March 2024 | De las Heras Demotecnia[29] | 1,400 | 63% | 15% | 2% | 20% | 48% |
| 14-17 March 2024 | Mitofsky[30] | 1,600 | 50.5% | 28.8% | 4.8% | 15.9% | 21.7% |
| 12-14 March 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[31] | 1,800 | 49.4% | 41.6% | 5% | 4% | 7.8% |
| 11-14 March 2024 | Áltica[32] | 1,000 | 51% | 37% | 6% | 6% | 14% |
Precampaigning and intercampaigning periods
Polls taken during the precampaigning period (20 November 2023 to 18 January 2024) and the intercampaigning period (19 January to 29 February 2024).[1]
| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample | .jpg) |
.jpg) |
|
 |
Others/
Undecided |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheinbaum SHH |
Gálvez FCM |
Máynez MC |
MC | |||||
| 27-28 February 2024 | MetricsMX[33] | 1,200 | 61% | 20% | 4.4% | – | 14.6% | 41% |
| 24-28 February 2024 | Enkoll[34] | 814 | 53% | 29% | 3% | – | 15% | 24% |
| 23-25 February 2024 | El Financiero[35] | 1,000 | 50% | 33% | 8% | – | 8% | 17% |
| 22 February 2024 | Máynez officially registers his candidacy. | |||||||
| 17-20 February 2024 | Mitofsky | 1,600 | 51.6% | 27.8% | 5.1% | – | 15.5% | 23.8% |
| 20 February 2024 | Gálvez officially registers her candidacy. | |||||||
| 16-19 February 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[36] | 1,800 | 50.4% | 40.9% | 3.9% | – | 4.8% | 9.5% |
| 15-19 February 2024 | De las Heras Demotecnia | 1,400 | 67% | 15% | 2% | – | 16% | 52% |
| 18 February 2024 | Sheinbaum officially registers her candidacy. | |||||||
| 10-14 February 2024 | Áltica[37] | 1,000 | 51% | 35% | 4% | – | 10% | 16% |
| 3-5 February 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[38] | 1,800 | 50.8% | 39.9% | 4.2% | – | 5.1% | 10.9% |
| 28-30 January 2024 | Áltica[39] | 1,000 | 50% | 35% | 5% | – | 9% | 15% |
| 19-22 January 2024 | Enkoll[40] | 834 | 54% | 27% | 3% | – | 16% | 27% |
| 12-15 January 2024 | MEBA[41] | 1,500 | 68.1% | 26.6% | 5.3% | – | 10.3% | 41.5% |
| 13-14 January 2024 | TResearch[42] | 2,000 | 52% | 27.1% | 5% | – | 15.3% | 25.5% |
| 13 January 2024 | Rubrum[43] | 1,200 | 53.5% | 28.9% | 4.5% | – | 13.1% | 24.1% |
| 10-14 January 2024 | De las Heras Demotecnia[44] | 1,400 | 66% | 14% | 2% | – | 18% | 52% |
| 10 January 2024 | Máynez becomes the sole precandidate for MC. | |||||||
| 9 January 2024 | INE announces that no independent candidates collected enough signatures to be eligible. | |||||||
| 18 December 2023 | C&E Mexico[45] | 600 | 58% | 33% | – | 9% | – | 25% |
| 10–15 December 2023 | Áltica[39] | 1,000 | 48% | 36% | – | 6% | 7% | 14% |
| 7–10 December 2023 | Mitofsky[46] | 1,600 | 50.2% | 25.3% | – | 6.3% | 18.2% | 24.9% |
| 2–5 December 2023 | De las Heras Demotecnia[47] | 1,400 | 65% | 13% | – | 6% | 16% | 52% |
| 5 December 2023 | C&E Mexico [48] | 600 | 55% | 36% | – | 7% | 1% | 19% |
| 2 December 2023 | García withdraws his candidacy. | |||||||
| 25–28 November 2023 | Enkoll[49] | 800 | 49% | 23% | – | 17% | 11% | 26% |
| 22–28 November 2023 | Reforma[50] | 1,000 | 46% | 25% | – | 14% | 15% | 21% |
| 24–25 November 2023 | El Financiero[51] | 1,000 | 50% | 31% | – | 7% | 12% | 19% |
| 20 November 2023 | Gálvez becomes the sole precandidate for Fuerza y Corazón por Mexico. | |||||||
Prior to the electoral period
Polls taken before the precampaigning period (20 November 2023), but after the winners of the internal selection processes of both major coalitions were named.
| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample | |
|
|
 |
Others/
Undecided |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheinbaum SHH |
Gálvez FCM |
García MC |
Verástegui Independent | |||||
| 19 November 2023 | Sheinbaum becomes the sole precandidate for Sigamos Haciendo Historia. | |||||||
| 17 November 2023 | Garcia becomes the sole precandidate for MC. | |||||||
| 10–13 November 2023 | De las Heras Demotecnia[52] | 1,400 | 66% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 52% |
| 19–28 October 2023 | El Financiero[53] | 1,620 | 46% | 28% | 8% | – | 18% | 18% |
| 20–24 October 2023 | Enkoll[54] | 1,008 | 50% | 27% | 15% | – | 8% | 23% |
| 16 October 2023 | MEBA[55] | 1,500 | 60.8% | 26.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | – | 34.1% |
| 4 October 2023 | Universal[56] | 1,200 | 50% | 20% | 7% | 4% | 19% | 30% |
| 19–25 September 2023 | Covarrubias y Asociados[57] | 1,500 | 64% | 17% | 6% | – | 13% | 41% |
| 25 September 2023 | De las Heras Demotecnia[58] | 1,200 | 68% | 14% | 4% | 2% | 12% | 54% |
| 16–21 September 2023 | GEA-ISA[59] | 1,070 | 53% | 34% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 19% |
| 13 September 2023 | Enkoll[60] | 1,205 | 55% | 22% | 6% | 0% | 17% | 33% |
| 6 September 2023 | Sheinbaum wins the internal selection process of the MORENA-PT-PVEM alliance. | |||||||
| 31 August 2023 | Gálvez wins the internal selection process of Frente Amplio por México. | |||||||
Possible candidates
| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | |
_(cropped).jpg) |
 |
.jpg) |
 |
 |
.jpg) |
 |
.jpg) |
 |
Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheinbaum Morena |
Ebrard Morena |
Colosio MC |
Anaya PAN |
Creel PAN |
Tellez PAN |
del Mazo PRI |
Ruiz Massieu PRI |
de la Madrid PRI |
Noroña PT | ||||
| June 2023 | Mexico Elige | 35.9% | – | 8.4% | – | 24.5% | – | – | 7.9% | – | 17.3% | 2.1% Velasco, 2.1% De Hoyos | 11.4% |
| – | 35.9% | – | – | – | 19.5% | – | – | 16.4% | 22.1% | 1.8% Velasco, 1.3% Mancera, 1.8% De Hoyos, 1.3% Delgado | 16.4% | ||
| February 2023 | El Financiero | 45% | – | 9% | 18% | – | – | 14% | – | – | – | N/A | 27% |
| October 2022 | El Financiero | 44% | – | 9% | 18% | – | – | 13% | – | – | – | N/A | 26% |
| August 2022 | Reforma | 34% | – | 28% | 16% | – | – | 10% | – | – | – | N/A | 6% |
| May 2022 | Reforma | 33% | – | 26% | 13% | – | – | 7% | – | – | – | N/A | 7% |
| December 2021 | Reforma | 31% | – | 27% | 16% | – | – | 10% | – | – | – | N/A | 11% |
By alliances
References
- 1 2 "Elección Federal 2024". Instituto Nacional Electoral (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-14.
- ↑ S, Karla (2024-05-29). "¿Quién va a ganar las elecciones presidenciales en México?". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
- ↑ "Encuesta - Presidente de México". Áltica (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
- ↑ "Estudio Nacional de Clima Político" (PDF). Mendoza Blanco & Asociados. 2024-05-29. Retrieved 2024-05-29.
- ↑ Staff, Forbes (2024-05-29). "Sheinbaum llega al cierre de campañas presidenciales con ventaja de 20 puntos sobre Gálvez: encuesta Reforma". Forbes México (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
- ↑ Group, MITOFSKY (2024-05-28). "Tendencias nacionales rumbo a la presidencia de México, mayo 2024-2". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-29.
{{cite web}}:|last=has generic name (help) - ↑ S, Karla (2024-05-14). "Presidencia 2024 - Mayo 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-15.
- 1 2 C&E, Redacción (2024-05-01). "Los Presidenciables 2024. 61° Medición". Campaigns and Elections México (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-05.
- ↑ Group, MITOFSKY (2024-05-14). "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la presidencia, mayo 2024". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-15.
{{cite web}}:|last=has generic name (help) - ↑ TResearch (2024-05-06). "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO A LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (05/May/24)". TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-10.
- ↑ "Encuesta - México". Áltica (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-06.
- ↑ S, Karla (2024-04-30). "Presidencia 2024 - Abril 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-02.
- ↑ "Sheinbaum, con sólida ventaja sobre Xóchitl en la recta final; Máynez avanza: Encuesta MetricsMx". sdpnoticias. 2024-05-02. Retrieved 2024-05-05.
- ↑ "Llegan a segundo debate sin cambios: Sheinbaum, 49%; Xóchitl, con 32%". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2024-04-26. Retrieved 2024-04-29.
- ↑ TResearch (2024-04-15). "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO A LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (21/Abr/24)". TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-25.
- ↑ R, Rojas (2024-05-03). "Imparable Sheinbaum con 59% de intención de voto, 2 a 1 sobre Gálvez". RegeneraciónMX (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-03.
- ↑ S, Karla (2024-04-18). "Presidenciables 2024 - Abril 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ↑ C&E, Redacción (2024-04-15). "Los Presidenciables 2024. 60° Medición". Campaigns and Elections México (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-16.
- ↑ TResearch (2024-04-15). "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO A LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (14/Abr/24)". TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ↑ Mx, Polls (2024-04-26). "GEA-ISA: Se acorta la brecha entre Sheinbaum y Gálvez previo al segundo debate". Polls Mx. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ↑ "Encuesta México" (PDF). Altica. 2024-04-15. Retrieved 2024-04-16.
- ↑ "PRESIDENCIABLES 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-04-23.
- ↑ Group, MITOFSKY (2024-04-24). "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la elección presidencial, abril 2024". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-25.
{{cite web}}:|last=has generic name (help) - ↑ S, Karla (2024-04-06). "Presidenciables 2024 - Abril 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-02.
- ↑ "Elecciones 2024: Sheinbaum retiene ventaja de 17 puntos sobre Xóchitl tras un mes de campaña". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2024-04-01. Retrieved 2024-04-16.
- ↑ "Encuesta México" (PDF). Altica. 2024-04-01.
- ↑ "La ventaja de Sheinbaum sobre Xóchitl baja a 33 puntos porcentuales, revela encuesta MetricsMX". sdpnoticias. 2024-04-01. Retrieved 2024-04-15.
- ↑ "Mendoza Blanco: Claudia (60.5%) saca 27 puntos a Xóchitl (32.7%); Máynez capta 6.8%". SinEmbargo MX (in Spanish). 2024-04-03. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ↑ Demotecnia, De las Heras (2024-03-27). "Encuesta Nacional Marzo 2024". De las Heras Demotecnia (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-14.
- ↑ Group, MITOFSKY (2024-03-25). "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la elección presidencial del 2 de junio, marzo 2024". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-15.
{{cite web}}:|last=has generic name (help) - ↑ "Presidenciables 2024" (PDF). LaEncuesta.MX. 2024-03-15. Retrieved 2024-04-15.
- ↑ "Encuesta México" (PDF). Altica. 2024-03-15.
- ↑ "Encuesta MetricsMX Presidencia 2024: Claudia Sheinbaum inicia periodo de campaña con una ventaja de 41 puntos porcentuales". sdpnoticias. 2024-03-01. Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ↑ "PRESIDENCIABLES 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-03-04.
- ↑ "Sheinbaum arranca campaña con 50% de preferencias; Xóchitl, con 33%". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2024-03-01. Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ↑ S, Karla (2024-02-20). "Presidenciables 2024 - Febrero 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ↑ "Encuesta - México Presidencial 5to Tracking". Áltica (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ↑ S, Karla (2024-02-06). "Presidenciables 2024 - Febrero 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-02-12.
- 1 2 "Encuesta - MX Presidencial I". Áltica (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 December 2023.
- ↑ "PRESIDENCIABLES 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-01-29.
- ↑ "Sheinbaum encabeza encuesta 'Meba' con 68.1% de intención de voto". MVS Noticias (in Spanish). 2024-01-24. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
- ↑ "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO a LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (05/Feb/24)". www.tresearch.mx. 6 February 2024. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
- ↑ "Preferencias presidenciales 15 de enero del 2024". RUBRUM (in Spanish). 2024-01-15. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
- ↑ "Encuesta Nacional Enero 2024". De las Heras Demotecnia (in Mexican Spanish). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
- ↑ "Los Presidenciables 2024. 53° Medición". www.ceonline.com.mx. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.
- ↑ "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la Presidencia de México, diciembre 2023". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). 18 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
- ↑ "Encuesta Nacional Diciembre 2023". De las Heras Demotecnia (in Spanish). 12 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
- ↑ "Los Presidenciables 2024. 52° Medición". ceonline (in Spanish). 6 December 2023. Retrieved 13 December 2023.
- ↑ "Presidenciables 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-12-01. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ↑ "Reforma: Xóchitl disminuye en preferencias mientras Sheinbaum y Samuel, que ya no compite, aumentan". Polls Mx. 4 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
- ↑ "Sheinbaum saca 19 puntos de ventaja a Xóchitl; baja cifra de indefinidos: Encuesta EF". El Financiero (in Spanish). 5 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
- ↑ "Encuesta Nacional Noviembre 2023". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 21 November 2023. Retrieved 21 November 2023.
- ↑ "Encuesta: Encuesta EF: Estas son las ventajas y desventajas de Sheinbaum y Gálvez como posibles candidatas". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 31 October 2023. Retrieved 31 October 2023.
- ↑ "Presidenciables 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-10-30. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ↑ "Encuesta: Se marca amplia distancia". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 15 October 2023. Archived from the original on 16 October 2023. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
- ↑ "Encuesta: Sheinbaum arrasa en preferencia electoral; saca 30 puntos a Xóchitl". El Universal (in Spanish). 3 October 2023. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
- ↑ "Covarrubias y Asociados estima 6% para Samuel, 17% para Xóchitl y 64% para Claudia". SinEmbargo MX (in Spanish). 3 October 2023. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
- ↑ "Estudio nacional de opinión pública". 25 September 2023.
- ↑ "GEA-ISA: 9 de cada 10 mexicanos irá a votar en las elecciones de 2024". Polls Mx. 6 October 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
- ↑ "Rumbo a la presidencia de la república" (PDF). Enkoll. 13 September 2023.
- ↑ "Los Presidenciables 2024. 53° Medición". www.ceonline.com.mx. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.