Opinion polling for the next German federal election

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In the run-up to the next German federal election following the 23 February 2025 election, which needs to take place on or before 25 March 2029, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed below.

Electoral threshold of 5%

Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to parties that either receive at least 5 percent of proportional votes (called "second votes" in Germany as the option appears second on the ballot, after the constituency or "first vote"), or win at least three constituencies. In the 2021 German federal election, Die Linke (The Left) won 3 constituencies and thus received proportional representation despite receiving just 4.9% of second votes. In 2022, this three constituency provision was abolished but was later reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), which competes only in Bavaria, and therefore has often been close to missing the 5% nationwide despite regularly winning all constituencies in the state. As the CDU does not run in Bavaria, only a few polls show the CDU and CSU as separate parties, with most combining the CDU/CSU as the Union. The two parties always coalition together in the federal level and agree on the vast majority of issues.

In the 2025 German federal election, both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly failed to meet the 5% electoral threshold to gain parliamentary representation. Both of these parties are present in a few state parliaments and even in state governments, and are still regularly polled despite not being present in the 21st Bundestag. Some polls include the Free Voters (FW), a general name used by unaffiliated groups in local elections, which was adopted by a party that is present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Other parties are categorised as "others".

Reliability of pollsters

The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and America-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association.[1]

Poll results

Graphical summary

Opinion polling for the 2029 German federal election using Local regression (LOESS) of polls conducted.
Opinion polling for the 2029 German federal election using Local regression (LOESS) of polls conducted.

2026

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Abs. Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke BSW FDP Others Lead
INSA[2] 15–18 May 2026 2,005 – 22 29 12.5 14 10.5 3.5 3.5 5 7
Forsa[3] 12–18 May 2026 2,000 26 22 28 12 14 11 3 4 6 6
INSA[2] 11–15 May 2026 1,203 – 22 29 12 14 10 3 3 7 7
YouGov[4] 8–11 May 2026 1,783 – 22 28 13 13 11 4 4 5 6
INSA[2] 8–11 May 2026 2,006 – 23 28 13 12.5 11 3.5 3.5 5.5 5
Forsa[3] 5–11 May 2026 2,501 25 22 27 12 15 11 – 4 9 5
Ipsos[5] 8–10 May 2026 1,000 – 23 26 13 14 12 3 4 5 3
INSA[2] 4–8 May 2026 1,200 – 23 28 13 13 11 3 3 6 5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 5–7 May 2026 1,240 – 25 27 12 13 11 – 3 9 2
Infratest dimap[7] 4–6 May 2026 1,303 – 24 27 12 15 10 3 4 5 3
Verian[8] 28 Apr – 5 May 2026 1,448 – 24 25 13 15 10 3 4 6 1
INSA[2] 30 Apr – 4 May 2026 2,008 – 24 27.5 13.5 13 10.5 3.5 4 4 3.5
Forsa[3] 28 Apr – 4 May 2026 2,002 – 22 27 12 16 11 – 4 8 5
INSA[2] 27–30 Apr 2026 1,207 – 24 28 14 13 11 3 3 4 4
Allensbach[9] 18–30 Apr 2026 1,015 – 25 26 12.5 14 10 – 4.5 8 1
INSA[2] 24–27 Apr 2026 2,010 – 23.5 28 14 12.5 11 3.5 3.5 4 4.5
Forsa[3] 21–27 Apr 2026 2,503 26 22 27 12 15 12 – 4 8 5
INSA[2] 20–24 Apr 2026 1,203 – 24 28 14 12 11 3 3 5 4
INSA[2] 17–20 Apr 2026 2,003 – 24 26.5 14 12.5 11 3.5 3.5 5 2.5
Forsa[3] 14–20 Apr 2026 2,502 26 24 26 12 15 11 – 4 8 2
INSA[2] 13–17 Apr 2026 1,201 – 24 27 14 13 11 3 3 5 3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 14–16 Apr 2026 1,355 – 25 26 12 14 11 – 3 9 1
YouGov[4] 10–13 Apr 2026 1,763 – 23 27 13 14 10 4 4 5 4
INSA[2] 10–13 Apr 2026 2,006 – 25 26 14 12.5 10 3.5 3.5 5.5 1
Forsa[3] 7–13 Apr 2026 1,502 – 24 26 12 15 11 – 4 8 2
INSA[2] 7–10 Apr 2026 1,205 – 25 26 14 13 10 4 3 5 1
Allensbach[9] 23 Mar – 9 Apr 2026 1,057 – 26 25 14 13 10 – 4 8 1
INSA[2] 2–7 Apr 2026 2,002 – 25 26 13 12 10.5 4 3.5 6 1
Verian[8] 30 Mar – 7 Apr 2026 1,460 – 25 25 14 14 11 3 3 5 Tie
Forsa[3] 31 Mar – 2 Apr 2026 1,503 26 26 26 12 15 10 – – 11 Tie
INSA[2] 30 Mar – 2 Apr 2026 1,199 – 25 26 13 12 11 4 3 6 1
Infratest dimap[7] 30–31 Mar 2026 1,316 – 26 25 12 14 10 3 3 7 1
INSA[2] 27–30 Mar 2026 2,006 – 26 26 14.5 12 10.5 3.5 3 4.5 Tie
Forsa[3] 24–30 Mar 2026 2,504 24 26 25 12 15 10 3 – 9 1
Ipsos[5] 27–29 Mar 2026 1,000 – 24 25 14 14 11 3 5 4 1
INSA[2] 23–27 Mar 2026 1,205 – 26 26 14 12 11 3 3 5 Tie
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 24–26 Mar 2026 1,206 – 26 26 13 15 10 – – 10 Tie
INSA[2] 20–23 Mar 2026 2,010 – 26 26 15 12 10 3.5 3 4.5 Tie
Forsa[3] 17–23 Mar 2026 2,501 25 26 25 12 15 10 3 – 9 1
INSA[2] 16–20 Mar 2026 1,205 – 26 25 15 12 11 3 3 5 1
YouGov[4] 13–16 Mar 2026 1,851 – 26 26 14 13 9 3 3 6 Tie
INSA[2] 13–16 Mar 2026 2,002 – 25.5 26 15 12 10.5 3.5 3 4.5 0.5
Forsa[3] 10–16 Mar 2026 2,503 23 27 23 12 15 11 3 – 9 4
INSA[2] 9–13 Mar 2026 1,201 – 25 25 15 12 11 3 3 6 Tie
Allensbach[9] 27 Feb – 12 Mar 2026 1,045 – 28 23 16 11.5 10 – 4 7.5 5
Verian[8] 4–10 Mar 2026 1,471 – 26 23 15 13 11 3 3 6 3
INSA[2] 6–9 Mar 2026 2,003 – 26 24.5 15.5 11.5 10.5 3.5 3.5 5 1.5
Forsa[3] 3–9 Mar 2026 2,502 25 26 24 14 12 11 3 3 7 2
INSA[2] 2–6 Mar 2026 1,200 – 26 25 15 11 11 3 4 5 1
Infratest dimap[7] 2–4 Mar 2026 1,317 – 28 23 14 13 9 4 – 9 5
INSA[2] 27 Feb – 2 Mar 2026 2,002 – 25.5 25 16 11.5 10 3.5 3 5.5 0.5
GMS[10] 25 Feb – 2 Mar 2026 1,027 – 26 24 16 12 10 3 3 4 2
Forsa[3] 24 Feb – 2 Mar 2026 2,503 26 26 24 14 12 11 3 3 7 2
Ipsos[5] 27 Feb – 1 Mar 2026 1,000 – 25 24 15 14 11 3 4 4 1
INSA[2] 23–27 Feb 2026 1,203 – 26 25 16 11 10 3 3 6 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 24–26 Feb 2026 1,262 – 26 24 15 12 11 – – 12 2
INSA[2] 20–23 Feb 2026 2,006 – 25 25 15.5 11 11 3.5 3.5 5.5 Tie
Forsa[3] 17–23 Feb 2026 2,504 28 26 24 14 12 11 3 3 7 2
INSA[2] 16–20 Feb 2026 1,203 – 25 25 16 11 11 3 3 6 Tie
Allensbach[9] 6–19 Feb 2026 1,052 – 27 24 16 12 10 – 4 7 3
INSA[2] 13–16 Feb 2026 2,002 – 25.5 25.5 15.5 11 10 4 3 5.5 Tie
Forsa[3] 10–16 Feb 2026 2,504 26 26 25 14 12 10 3 3 7 1
INSA[2] 9–13 Feb 2026 1,202 – 25 25 16 11 10 4 3 6 Tie
Verian[8] 4–10 Feb 2026 1,472 – 25 24 15 12 11 3 4 6 1
YouGov[4] 6–9 Feb 2026 1,657 – 25 25 16 11 10 4 4 6 Tie
INSA[2] 6–9 Feb 2026 2,004 – 25.5 26 15.5 11 10 4 3 5 0.5
Ipsos[5] 6–8 Feb 2026 1,000 – 23 26 15 13 12 3 4 4 3
Forsa[3] 3–9 Feb 2026 2,503 27 26 24 14 13 11 3 3 6 2
INSA[2] 2–6 Feb 2026 1,202 – 25 26 16 11 10 4 3 5 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 3–5 Feb 2026 1,289 14 26 24 15 13 10 – – 12 2
Infratest dimap[7] 2–4 Feb 2026 1,319 – 26 24 15 12 10 3 3 7 2
INSA[2] 30 Jan – 2 Feb 2026 2,006 – 26 26 15.5 11.5 10 4 3 4 Tie
Forsa[3] 27 Jan – 2 Feb 2026 2,503 28 26 24 14 12 11 3 3 7 2
INSA[2] 26–30 Jan 2026 1,204 – 26 26 16 11 10 4 3 4 Tie
INSA[2] 23–26 Jan 2026 2,008 – 25 26 14.5 11.5 10.5 4.5 4 4 1
Forsa[3] 20–26 Jan 2026 2,501 28 26 24 14 12 11 3 3 7 2
INSA[2] 19–23 Jan 2026 1,204 – 25 26 15 11 10 4 4 5 1
INSA[2] 16–19 Jan 2026 2,004 – 25 26 14 12 10.5 4 4 4.5 1
Forsa[3] 13–19 Jan 2026 2,501 26 25 26 14 12 10 3 3 7 1
Allensbach[9] 6–19 Jan 2026 1,077 – 27 25 15 11.5 10 – 3.5 8 2
INSA[2] 12–16 Jan 2026 1,202 – 25 26 14 12 11 4 4 4 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 13–15 Jan 2026 1,245 18 26 25 15 12 10 – – 12 1
Verian[8] 7–13 Jan 2026 1,455 – 26 25 15 13 10 3 3 5 1
pollytix[11] 7–13 Jan 2026 1,573 – 25 26 15 12 10 3 5 4 1
YouGov[4] 9–12 Jan 2026 1,673 – 25 25 16 12 10 3 4 5 Tie
INSA[2] 9–12 Jan 2026 2,010 – 24.5 26 14.5 12 10 4 4 5 1.5
Forsa[3] 5–12 Jan 2026 3,004 26 24 26 13 13 11 3 3 7 2
Ipsos[5] 9–11 Jan 2026 1,000 – 23 26 15 13 11 3 4 5 3
INSA[2] 5–9 Jan 2026 1,205 – 24 26 14 12 11 3 4 6 2
Infratest dimap[7] 5–7 Jan 2026 1,323 – 28 25 13 12 10 3 3 6 3
INSA[2] 2–5 Jan 2026 2,008 – 25 25.5 14.5 11 11 4 3.5 5.5 0.5
GMS[10] 23 Dec – 5 Jan 2026 1,027 – 24 27 15 12 10 4 3 5 3
INSA[2] 30 Dec – 2 Jan 2026 1,004 – 25 26 14 11 11 4 4 5 1
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 17.5 28.5 20.8 16.4 11.6 8.8 5.0[a] 4.3 4.6 7.7
Close

2025

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Abs. Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke BSW FDP Others Lead
INSA[2] 19–22 Dec 2025 2,002 – 24.5 26 14 11.5 11 4 3.5 5.5 1.5
Forsa[3] 16–19 Dec 2025 2,003 26 24 26 13 13 11 3 3 7 2
INSA[2] 15–19 Dec 2025 1,201 – 24 26 14 12 11 4 4 5 2
YouGov[4] 12–15 Dec 2025 1,743 – 26 26 14 12 10 4 4 5 Tie
INSA[2] 12–15 Dec 2025 2,006 – 25 26 14 10.5 10.5 4.5 4 5.5 1
Forsa[3] 9–15 Dec 2025 2,503 28 24 26 13 13 11 3 3 7 2
INSA[2] 8–12 Dec 2025 1,201 – 24 26 14 11 11 4 4 6 2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 9–11 Dec 2025 1,295 17 26 25 14 12 11 – – 12 1
Verian[8] 3–9 Dec 2025 1,443 – 25 25 14 12 11 4 3 6 Tie
INSA[2] 5–8 Dec 2025 2,007 – 24.5 26.5 15 10.5 11 4 4 4.5 2
Forsa[3] 2–8 Dec 2025 2,503 26 24 26 14 12 11 3 3 7 2
INSA[2] 1–5 Dec 2025 1,206 – 25 26 15 10 11 4 4 5 1
Allensbach[9] 22 Nov – 4 Dec 2025 1,029 – 27 25 14 12.5 9 3 4.5 5 2
Infratest dimap[7] 1–3 Dec 2025 1,306 – 27 25 14 12 10 4 3 5 2
pollytix[11] 26 Nov – 2 Dec 2025 3,020 – 26 26 15 11 10 4 4 4 Tie
INSA[2] 28 Nov – 1 Dec 2025 2,002 – 24.5 27 14.5 11 10.5 4 3.5 5 2.5
Forsa[3] 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2025 2,501 26 25 26 14 12 11 3 3 6 1
Ipsos[12] 28–30 Nov 2025 1,000 – 23 26 15 13 10 4 4 5 3
INSA[2] 24–28 Nov 2025 1,198 – 25 27 15 11 10 4 3 5 2
INSA[2] 21–24 Nov 2025 2,008 – 25.5 26 15 11 10.5 4 3 5 0.5
Forsa[3] 18–24 Nov 2025 2,501 26 25 26 14 12 11 3 3 6 1
INSA[2] 17–21 Nov 2025 1,208 – 25 26 15 11 10 4 3 6 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 18–20 Nov 2025 1,207 11 27 27 14 12 9 – – 11 Tie
YouGov[4] 14–17 Nov 2025 2,006 – 27 25 14 11 11 4 4 5 2
INSA[2] 14–17 Nov 2025 2,006 – 24.5 26 15 11 11 4 3.5 5 1.5
Forsa[3] 11–17 Nov 2025 2,502 25 25 26 14 12 11 – 3 9 1
GMS[10] 11–17 Nov 2025 1,020 – 25 26 14 12 11 3 3 6 1
INSA[2] 10–14 Nov 2025 1,203 – 25 26 15 11 11 4 3 5 1
INSA[2] 7–10 Nov 2025 2,010 – 25 26 15.5 11.5 10.5 4 3 4.5 1
Forsa[3] 4–10 Nov 2025 2,503 24 24 26 14 12 11 3 3 7 2
Ipsos[12] 7–9 Nov 2025 1,000 – 24 26 15 12 11 4 4 4 2
INSA[2] 3–7 Nov 2025 1,205 – 25 26 15 12 11 4 3 4 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 4–6 Nov 2025 1,322 13 26 26 14 12 10 – – 12 Tie
Allensbach[9] 23 Oct – 6 Nov 2025 1,011 – 27 24 15.5 11 10 4 3.5 5 3
Infratest dimap[7] 3–5 Nov 2025 1,300 – 27 26 14 12 10 3 3 5 1
Verian[8] 28 Oct – 4 Nov 2025 1,471 – 26 25 15 12 10 3 3 6 1
INSA[2] 30 Oct – 3 Nov 2025 2,002 – 25.5 25.5 15 11 11 4 3 5 Tie
Forsa[3] 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2025 2,500 23 24 26 14 12 12 3 3 6 2
INSA[2] 27–30 Oct 2025 1,202 – 25 26 15 11 11 4 3 5 1
INSA[2] 24–27 Oct 2025 2,004 – 24.5 26 15 11 11.5 4 3.5 4.5 1.5
Forsa[3] 21–27 Oct 2025 2,502 23 25 26 13 12 12 3 3 6 1
INSA[2] 20–24 Oct 2025 1,205 – 24 26 15 11 11 4 4 5 2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 21–23 Oct 2025 1,272 12 27 25 15 11 10 – – 12 2
INSA[2] 17–20 Oct 2025 2,006 – 24.5 27 14 11 11 4.5 4 4 2.5
Forsa[3] 14–20 Oct 2025 2,505 23 24 26 14 12 11 4 3 6 2
INSA[2] 13–17 Oct 2025 1,200 – 25 27 14 11 11 4 4 4 2
YouGov[4] 10–13 Oct 2025 1,880 – 27 26 14 11 10 4 3 5 1
INSA[2] 10–13 Oct 2025 2,008 – 25 26.5 14 11.5 10.5 4 4 4.5 1.5
Forsa[3] 7–13 Oct 2025 2,500 23 24 26 13 12 12 4 3 6 2
INSA[2] 6–10 Oct 2025 1,224 – 24 26 14 12 11 4 4 5 2
Allensbach[9] 26 Sep – 10 Oct 2025 1,044 – 26 25 15 11 11 4 3 5 1
Verian[8] 30 Sep – 7 Oct 2025 1,478 – 25 25 15 12 10 4 3 6 Tie
INSA[2] 2–6 Oct 2025 2,010 – 24.5 26.5 14.5 11 11.5 4 3.5 4.5 2
Forsa[3] 30 Sep – 6 Oct 2025 2,001 – 24 26 13 12 12 4 3 6 2
Ipsos[12] 2–3 Oct 2025 1,000 – 23 25 15 11 12 5 4 5 2
INSA[2] 29 Sep – 2 Oct 2025 1,186 – 24 26 14 11 12 4 4 5 2
Infratest dimap[7] 29 Sep – 1 Oct 2025 1,306 – 26 26 14 12 10 3 3 6 Tie
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 29 Sep – 1 Oct 2025 1,300 17 27 25 15 11 11 – 3 8 2
INSA[2] 26–29 Sep 2025 2,006 – 25 26 15.5 11.5 11 4 3 4 1
GMS[10] 24–29 Sep 2025 1,012 – 26 25 15 11 10 3 3 7 1
Forsa[3] 23–29 Sep 2025 2,502 22 24 27 13 12 11 4 3 6 3
INSA[2] 22–26 Sep 2025 1,200 – 25 26 15 12 11 4 3 4 1
INSA[2] 19–22 Sep 2025 2,002 – 24.5 26 14.5 11 11.5 4 3.5 5 1.5
Forsa[3] 16–22 Sep 2025 2,504 – 25 27 13 11 11 4 3 6 2
INSA[2] 15–19 Sep 2025 1,200 – 25 26 15 11 11 4 3 5 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 16–18 Sep 2025 1,419 14 26 26 15 10 11 3 3 6 Tie
Allensbach[9] 5–17 Sep 2025 1,013 – 27 24 15 11 11 3 4 5 3
YouGov[4] 12–15 Sep 2025 1,649 – 26 27 15 11 9 5 4 4 1
INSA[2] 12–15 Sep 2025 2,004 – 25.5 25.5 14.5 11.5 11 4 3 5 Tie
Forsa[3] 9–15 Sep 2025 2,502 – 25 25 14 12 11 4 3 6 Tie
INSA[2] 8–12 Sep 2025 1,204 – 25 25 14 12 11 4 3 6 Tie
Verian[8] 3–9 Sep 2025 1,460 – 26 25 15 11 11 4 3 5 1
INSA[2] 5–8 Sep 2025 2,006 – 25.5 25.5 14.5 11 10 4.5 3.5 5.5 Tie
Forsa[3] 2–8 Sep 2025 2,500 25 25 26 14 11 12 3 3 7 1
Ipsos[12] 5–7 Sep 2025 1,000 – 24 25 15 12 12 4 3 5 1
INSA[2] 1–5 Sep 2025 1,287 – 26 25 15 12 11 4 3 4 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 2–4 Sep 2025 1,269 14 27 25 15 11 10 3 3 6 2
Infratest dimap[7] 1–2 Sep 2025 1,342 – 27 25 14 11 10 4 3 6 2
pollytix[11] 26 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 1,533 – 27 25 16 11 9 5 4 3 2
INSA[2] 29 Aug – 1 Sep 2025 2,004 – 25.5 25 14.5 11 11 4 3.5 5.5 0.5
Forsa[3] 26 Aug – 1 Sep 2025 2,502 25 25 26 14 11 12 3 3 7 1
INSA[2] 25–29 Aug 2025 1,202 – 26 25 15 11 11 4 3 5 1
INSA[2] 22–25 Aug 2025 2,002 – 25 25 15 10.5 11 4.5 3.5 5.5 Tie
Forsa[3] 19–25 Aug 2025 2,501 26 25 26 13 12 11 3 3 7 1
INSA[2] 18–22 Aug 2025 1,201 – 25 25 15 11 11 4 3 6 Tie
YouGov[4] 15–18 Aug 2025 1,831 – 27 25 14 12 10 5 3 4 2
INSA[2] 15–18 Aug 2025 2,010 – 26 25 14.5 11 10 5 4 4.5 1
Forsa[3] 12–18 Aug 2025 2,502 – 25 26 13 12 12 3 3 6 1
INSA[2] 11–15 Aug 2025 1,206 – 26 25 15 11 9 4 4 6 1
Allensbach[9] 1–14 Aug 2025 1,051 – 28 22.5 16 11 10 4 4 4.5 5.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 11–13 Aug 2025 1,370 15 27 23 15 12 11 3 3 6 4
Verian[8] 6–12 Aug 2025 1,464 – 26 25 14 12 10 3 4 6 1
INSA[2] 8–11 Aug 2025 2,008 – 27 25 14.5 10.5 9.5 4.5 3.5 5.5 2
Forsa[3] 5–11 Aug 2025 2,505 25 24 26 13 13 11 4 3 6 2
INSA[2] 3–8 Aug 2025 1,204 – 27 25 15 11 9 4 4 5 2
Infratest dimap[7] 4–6 Aug 2025 1,321 – 27 24 13 12 10 3 4 7 3
INSA[2] 1–4 Aug 2025 2,004 – 27.5 25 14.5 10.5 9.5 4.5 3 5.5 2.5
Forsa[3] 29 Jul – 4 Aug 2025 2,503 24 25 25 13 12 12 4 3 6 Tie
Ipsos[12] 1–3 Aug 2025 1,000 – 25 25 15 11 11 5 3 5 Tie
INSA[2] 28 Jul – 1 Aug 2025 1,203 – 27 25 15 11 10 4 3 5 2
Verian[8] 23–29 Jul 2025 1,473 – 27 24 14 12 11 3 4 5 3
INSA[2] 25–28 Jul 2025 2,006 – 27.5 24 14.5 10.5 10 4.5 3.5 5.5 3.5
Forsa[3] 22–28 Jul 2025 2,502 24 26 25 13 12 12 3 3 6 1
INSA[2] 21–25 Jul 2025 1,203 – 27 24 15 11 10 4 3 6 3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 22–24 Jul 2025 1,367 13 27 24 15 11 11 3 3 6 3
INSA[2] 18–21 Jul 2025 2,005 – 27.5 24 14 10.5 10.5 4.5 3.5 5.5 3.5
Forsa[3] 15–21 Jul 2025 2,502 – 25 25 13 12 12 4 3 6 Tie
INSA[2] 14–18 Jul 2025 1,205 – 27 24 15 11 11 5 3 4 3
Allensbach[9] 4–16 Jul 2025 1,054 – 29 23 15 12 9 3.5 4 4.5 6
YouGov[4] 11–14 Jul 2025 1,820 – 27 25 14 11 10 5 3 5 2
INSA[2] 11–14 Jul 2025 2,004 – 27.5 23.5 15 11 10.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 4
Forsa[3] 8–14 Jul 2025 2,503 – 26 24 13 12 11 4 4 6 2
INSA[2] 7–11 Jul 2025 1,202 – 28 24 15 11 11 4 3 4 4
INSA[2] 4–7 Jul 2025 2,007 – 28 23.5 14.5 11 11 4.5 3.5 4 4.5
Forsa[3] 1–7 Jul 2025 2,503 – 27 24 13 12 11 4 3 6 3
Ipsos[12] 4–5 Jul 2025 1,000 – 26 24 15 12 12 4 3 4 2
INSA[2] 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2025 1,205 – 28 24 15 11 11 4 4 3 4
Infratest dimap[7] 30 Jun – 2 Jul 2025 1,312 – 30 23 13 12 10 4 3 5 7
INSA[2] 27–30 Jun 2025 2,008 – 28 23.5 15.5 11.5 9.5 5 3.5 3.5 4.5
GMS[10] 25–30 Jun 2025 1,007 – 29 22 15 13 9 3 4 5 7
Forsa[3] 24–30 Jun 2025 2,501 24 28 24 14 11 11 3 3 6 4
INSA[2] 23–27 Jun 2025 1,202 – 28 24 16 11 9 5 3 4 4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 24–26 Jun 2025 1,378 13 29 22 15 12 10 3 3 6 7
INSA[2] 20–23 Jun 2025 2,002 – 27.5 23 16 11.5 10 4.5 4 3.5 4.5
Forsa[3] 17–20 Jun 2025 2,003 21 28 24 14 11 11 3 3 6 4
INSA[2] 16–20 Jun 2025 1,205 – 28 23 16 11 9 4 4 5 5
Verian[8] 11–17 Jun 2025 1,462 – 28 23 15 12 10 4 3 5 5
YouGov[4] 13–16 Jun 2025 1,912 – 28 23 14 12 8 5 3 5 5
INSA[2] 13–16 Jun 2025 2,006 – 27 23 16 11.5 10.5 4 4 4 4
Forsa[3] 10–16 Jun 2025 2,502 – 28 23 14 11 10 4 4 6 5
INSA[2] 10–13 Jun 2025 1,203 – 27 23 17 11 10 4 4 4 4
Allensbach[9] 1–12 Jun 2025 1,054 – 29 23 16 11 9 4 4 4 6
INSA[2] 6–10 Jun 2025 2,004 – 27.5 22.5 16 11 10 4.5 4 4.5 5
Forsa[3] 3–6 Jun 2025 2,002 21 27 24 14 11 11 3 4 6 3
INSA[2] 2–6 Jun 2025 1,202 – 27 23 16 11 10 4 4 5 4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 3–5 Jun 2025 1,247 13 27 23 15 12 11 3 3 6 4
Infratest dimap[7] 2–3 Jun 2025 1,292 – 29 23 15 12 9 4 4 4 6
INSA[2] 30 May – 2 Jun 2025 2,002 – 26.5 24.5 16 10.5 10.5 4 4 4 2
pollytix[11] 28 May – 2 Jun 2025 1,561 – 27 23 16 11 10 5 3 5 4
Forsa[3] 27 May – 2 Jun 2025 2,002 20 27 23 15 12 11 3 3 6 4
Ipsos[12] 30 May – 1 Jun 2025 1,000 – 27 23 16 11 11 4 3 5 4
INSA[2] 26–30 May 2025 2,002 – 26 24 17 10 11 4 4 4 2
INSA[2] 23–26 May 2025 2,006 – 26 24.5 16 11 10 4.5 3.5 4.5 1.5
Forsa[3] 20–26 May 2025 2,501 20 26 24 15 11 11 3 4 6 2
INSA[2] 19–23 May 2025 1,198 – 27 24 16 11 10 4 4 4 3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 20–22 May 2025 1,328 10 26 23 16 12 10 3 4 6 3
Verian[8] 14–20 May 2025 1,468 – 26 23 15 12 11 4 3 6 3
INSA[2] 16–19 May 2025 2,008 – 26 24.5 15.5 11 10 4 3.5 5.5 1.5
GMS[10] 14–19 May 2025 1,012 – 26 23 14 12 10 4 4 7 3
Forsa[3] 13–19 May 2025 2,504 20 26 24 15 11 11 3 4 6 2
INSA[2] 12–16 May 2025 1,205 – 26 25 16 11 10 4 3 5 1
pollytix[11] 13–15 Apr 2025 1,514 – 27 25 15 11 10 5 3 4 2
Allensbach[9] 3–14 May 2025 1,032 – 28 22.5 17 11 10 4 3 4.5 5.5
YouGov[4] 9–12 May 2025 1,927 – 27 25 15 12 9 4 3 4 2
INSA[2] 9–12 May 2025 2,004 – 25 24.5 16 11 10 4 3.5 6 0.5
Forsa[3] 5–12 May 2025 3,001 – 25 25 15 11 10 4 3 7 Tie
Ipsos[12] 9–10 May 2025 1,000 – 25 25 15 12 10 5 4 4 Tie
INSA[2] 5–9 May 2025 1,203 – 25 24 16 11 10 4 4 6 1
Infratest dimap[7] 5–6 May 2025 1,325 – 27 23 16 11 10 4 4 5 4
INSA[2] 2–5 May 2025 2,003 – 24.5 24.5 16 11 10 4 4 6 Tie
Forsa[3] 29 Apr – 2 May 2025 1,503 21 25 25 15 12 10 3 3 7 Tie
INSA[2] 28 Apr – 2 May 2025 1,204 – 25 24 16 12 10 4 4 5 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 28–30 Apr 2025 1,297 9 27 23 15 11 10 3 4 7 4
Wahlkreisprognose[13] 27–30 Apr 2025 1,000 – 26 24.5 16.5 12 10.5 3.5 4 3 1.5
YouGov[4] 25–28 Apr 2025 2,275 – 26 26 14 12 10 5 4 3 Tie
INSA[2] 25–28 Apr 2025 2,006 – 25 25 15.5 11 10 4 3 6.5 Tie
Forsa[3] 22–28 Apr 2025 2,004 22 24 26 14 12 10 4 3 7 2
INSA[2] 22–25 Apr 2025 1,204 – 25 25 15 12 10 4 3 6 Tie
INSA[2] 17–22 Apr 2025 2,010 – 25 25 15 11 10 5 3.5 5.5 Tie
Verian[8] 15–22 Apr 2025 1,469 – 26 24 16 12 9 4 3 6 2
Forsa[3] 15–17 Apr 2025 1,502 – 25 26 15 11 9 4 4 6 1
INSA[2] 14–17 Apr 2025 1,205 – 25 24 16 11 10 5 4 5 1
INSA[2] 11–14 Apr 2025 2,002 – 25.5 24.5 16 11 10 4.5 3.5 5 1
Forsa[3] 8–14 Apr 2025 2,502 21 25 24 15 12 10 4 3 7 1
INSA[2] 7–11 Apr 2025 1,202 – 25 24 16 11 10 5 3 6 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 8–10 Apr 2025 1,322 9 26 24 15 12 10 3 4 6 2
Allensbach[9] 28 Mar – 9 Apr 2025 1,048 – 27 23.5 16 12 10 4 3 4.5 3.5
INSA[2] 4–7 Apr 2025 2,008 – 24.5 24.5 16 10.5 10.5 4.5 4 5.5 Tie
GMS[10] 2–7 Apr 2025 1,022 – 26 25 15 11 10 4 4 5 1
Forsa[3] 1–7 Apr 2025 2,501 19 25 24 15 12 10 4 3 7 1
Ipsos[12] 4–5 Apr 2025 1,000 – 24 25 15 11 11 5 4 5 1
INSA[2] 31 Mar – 4 Apr 2025 1,206 – 24 24 16 11 11 4 4 6 Tie
Infratest dimap[7] 31 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 1,334 – 26 24 16 11 10 4 4 5 2
INSA[2] 28–31 Mar 2025 2,006 – 26.5 23.5 15.5 12 10.5 4.5 3.5 4 3
Forsa[3] 25–31 Mar 2025 2,508 – 25 24 15 12 10 4 4 6 1
INSA[2] 24–28 Mar 2025 1,204 – 26 23 16 12 10 5 3 5 3
Verian[8] 19–25 Mar 2025 1,381 – 27 22 15 13 10 4 3 6 5
YouGov[4] 21–24 Mar 2025 1,890 – 26 24 15 12 10 5 3 4 2
INSA[2] 21–24 Mar 2025 2,004 – 27 23.5 14.5 12 10.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 3.5
Forsa[3] 18–24 Mar 2025 2,502 – 26 23 15 12 10 4 4 6 3
INSA[2] 17–21 Mar 2025 1,202 – 27 23 15 12 10 5 3 5 4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 18–20 Mar 2025 1,305 11 27 22 16 12 10 3 4 6 5
INSA[2] 14–17 Mar 2025 2,008 – 29 22 15.5 11 10.5 5 3 4 7
Forsa[3] 11–17 Mar 2025 2,501 – 27 23 14 12 11 3 4 6 4
INSA[2] 10–14 Mar 2025 1,201 – 28 22 16 11 10 5 3 5 6
Allensbach[9] 27 Feb – 11 Mar 2025 1,031 – 29 21 16 11.5 10 4 3 5 8
INSA[2] 7–10 Mar 2025 2,003 – 28.5 22 16.5 10.5 10.5 4.5 3.5 4 6.5
Forsa[3] 4–10 Mar 2025 2,504 – 28 22 15 11 11 3 4 6 6
INSA[2] 3–7 Mar 2025 1,201 – 28 21 16 11 10 5 4 5 7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[6] 4–6 Mar 2025 1,249 8 28 21 15 13 10 3 4 6 7
Infratest dimap[7] 4–5 Mar 2025 1,325 – 29 21 16 12 9 5 3 5 8
INSA[2] 28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 2,002 – 29.5 22 15.5 11 9.5 5 3.5 4 7.5
Forsa[3] 24 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 3,001 16 28 22 15 11 12 3 3 6 6
Ipsos[12] 28 Feb – 1 Mar 2025 1,000 – 29 22 15 12 9 5 4 5 7
INSA[2] 24–28 Feb 2025 1,001 – 30 22 15 11 9 5 4 4 8
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 17.5 28.5 20.8 16.4 11.6 8.8 5.0[a] 4.3 4.6 7.7
Close

CDU and CSU

Some polls show CDU (not present in Bavaria) and CSU (only in Bavaria) separately without adding them up.

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CDU AfD SPD Grüne Linke CSU BSW FDP Others Lead
INSA 15–18 May 2026 2,005 16.6 29.0 12.5 14.0 10.5 5.4 3.5 3.5 5.0 12.4
INSA 8–11 May 2026 2,006 18.1 28.0 13.0 12.5 11.0 4.9 3.5 3.5 5.5 9.9
INSA 2–7 Apr 2026 2,002 19.0 26.0 13.0 12.0 10.5 6.0 4.0 3.5 6.0 7.0
INSA 27–30 Mar 2026 2,006 20.5 26.0 14.5 12.0 10.5 5.5 3.5 3.0 4.5 5.5
INSA 20–23 Mar 2026 2,010 19.8 26.0 15.0 12.0 10.0 6.2 3.5 3.0 4.5 6.2
INSA 13–16 Mar 2026 2,002 20.2 26.0 15.0 12.0 10.5 5.3 3.5 3.0 4.5 5.8
INSA 6–9 Mar 2026 2,003 19.1 24.5 15.5 11.5 10.5 6.9 3.5 3.5 5.0 5.4
INSA 27 Feb – 2 Mar 2026 2,002 20.2 25.0 16.0 11.5 10.0 5.3 3.5 3.0 5.5 4.8
INSA 20–23 Feb 2026 2,006 19.9 25.0 15.5 11.0 11.0 5.1 3.5 3.5 5.5 5.1
INSA 13–16 Feb 2026 2,002 19.0 25.5 15.5 11.0 10.0 6.5 4.0 3.0 5.5 6.5
INSA 6–9 Feb 2026 2,004 19.5 26.0 15.5 11.0 10.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 6.5
INSA 30 Jan – 2 Feb 2026 2,006 20.0 26.0 15.5 11.5 10.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 6.0
INSA 23–26 Jan 2026 2,008 19.9 26.0 14.5 11.5 10.5 5.1 4.5 4.0 4.0 6.1
INSA 9–12 Jan 2026 2,010 18.3 26.0 14.5 12.0 10.0 6.2 4.0 4.0 5.0 7.7
INSA 2–5 Jan 2026 2,008 19.0 25.5 14.5 11.0 11.0 6.0 4.0 3.5 5.5 6.5
INSA 19–22 Dec 2025 2,002 18.5 26.0 14.0 11.5 11.0 6.0 4.0 3.5 5.5 7.5
INSA 12–15 Dec 2025 2,006 19.4 26.0 14.0 10.5 10.5 5.6 4.5 4.0 5.5 6.6
INSA 5–8 Dec 2025 2,007 18.0 26.5 15.0 10.5 11.0 6.5 4.0 4.0 4.5 8.5
INSA 28 Nov – 1 Dec 2025 2,002 19.1 27.0 14.5 11.0 10.5 5.4 4.0 3.5 5.0 7.9
INSA 21–24 Nov 2025 2,008 19.3 26.0 15.0 11.0 10.5 6.2 4.0 3.0 5.0 6.7
INSA 14–17 Nov 2025 2,006 19.5 26.0 15.0 11.0 11.0 5.0 4.0 3.5 5.0 6.5
INSA 7–10 Nov 2025 2,010 19.1 26.0 15.5 11.5 10.5 5.9 4.0 3.0 4.5 6.9
INSA 30 Oct – 3 Nov 2025 2,002 20.6 25.5 15.0 11.0 11.0 4.9 4.0 3.0 5.0 4.9
INSA 24–27 Oct 2025 2,004 19.5 26.0 15.0 11.0 11.5 5.0 4.0 3.5 4.5 6.5
INSA 17–20 Oct 2025 2,006 19.7 27.0 14.0 11.0 11.0 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 7.3
INSA 10–13 Oct 2025 2,008 19.5 26.5 14.0 11.5 10.5 5.5 4.0 4.0 4.5 7.0
INSA 2–6 Oct 2025 2,010 19.0 26.5 14.5 11.0 11.5 5.5 4.0 3.5 4.5 7.5
INSA 26–29 Sep 2025 2,006 20.0 26.0 15.5 11.5 11.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 6.0
INSA 19–22 Sep 2025 2,002 19.5 26.0 14.5 11.0 11.5 5.0 4.0 3.5 5.0 6.5
INSA 12–15 Sep 2025 2,004 19.5 25.5 14.5 11.5 11.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 6.0
INSA 5–8 Sep 2025 2,006 19.5 25.5 14.5 11.0 10.0 6.0 4.5 3.5 5.5 6.0
INSA 29 Aug – 1 Sep 2025 2,004 19.0 25.0 14.5 11.0 11.0 6.5 4.0 3.5 5.5 6.0
INSA 22–25 Aug 2025 2,002 18.5 25.0 15.0 10.5 11.0 6.5 4.5 3.5 5.5 6.5
INSA 15–18 Aug 2025 2,010 21.5 25.0 14.5 11.0 10.0 4.5 5.0 4.0 4.5 3.5
INSA 8–11 Aug 2025 2,008 21.0 25.0 14.5 10.5 9.5 6.0 4.5 3.5 5.5 4.0
INSA 1–4 Aug 2025 2,004 22.0 25.0 14.5 10.5 9.5 5.5 4.5 3.0 5.5 3.0
INSA 25–28 Jul 2025 2,006 21.5 24.0 14.5 10.5 10.0 6.0 4.5 3.5 5.5 2.5
INSA 18–21 Jul 2025 2,005 21.0 24.0 14.0 10.5 10.5 6.5 4.5 3.5 5.5 3.0
INSA 11–14 Jul 2025 2,004 21.0 23.5 15.0 11.0 10.5 6.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.5
INSA 4–7 Jul 2025 2,007 22.0 23.5 14.5 11.0 11.0 6.0 4.5 3.5 4.0 1.5
INSA 27–30 Jun 2025 2,008 22.5 23.5 15.5 11.5 9.5 5.5 5.0 3.5 3.5 1.0
INSA 20–23 Jun 2025 2,002 21.5 23.0 16.0 11.5 10.0 6.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 1.5
INSA 13–16 Jun 2025 2,006 21.5 23.0 16.0 11.5 10.5 5.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.5
INSA 6–10 Jun 2025 2,004 20.5 22.5 16.0 11.0 10.0 7.0 4.5 4.0 4.5 2.0
INSA 30 May – 2 Jun 2025 2,002 21.0 24.5 16.0 10.5 10.5 5.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.5
INSA 23–26 May 2025 2,006 21.0 24.5 16.0 11.0 10.0 5.0 4.5 3.5 4.5 3.5
INSA 16–19 May 2025 2,008 20.5 24.5 15.5 11.0 10.0 5.5 4.0 3.5 5.5 4.0
INSA 9–12 May 2025 2,004 20.5 24.5 16.0 11.0 10.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 6.0 4.0
INSA 2–5 May 2025 2,003 19.0 24.5 16.0 11.0 10.0 5.5 4.0 4.0 6.0 5.5
INSA 25–28 Apr 2025 2,006 19.5 25.0 15.5 11.0 10.0 5.5 4.0 3.0 6.5 5.5
INSA 17–22 Apr 2025 2,010 19.5 25.0 15.0 11.0 10.0 5.5 5.0 3.5 5.5 5.5
INSA 11–14 Apr 2025 2,002 20.0 24.5 16.0 11.0 10.0 5.5 4.5 3.5 5.0 4.5
INSA 4–7 Apr 2025 2,008 18.5 24.5 16.0 10.5 10.5 6.0 4.5 4.0 5.5 6.0
INSA 28–31 Mar 2025 2,006 21.0 23.5 15.5 12.0 10.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 4.0 2.5
INSA 21–24 Mar 2025 2,004 21.0 23.5 14.5 12.0 10.5 6.0 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.5
INSA 14–17 Mar 2025 2,008 23.5 22.0 15.5 11.0 10.5 5.5 5.0 3.0 4.0 1.5
INSA 7–10 Mar 2025 2,003 22.5 22.0 16.5 10.5 10.5 6.0 4.5 3.5 4.0 0.5
INSA 28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 2,002 23.0 22.0 15.5 11.0 9.5 6.5 5.0 3.5 4.0 1.0
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 22.6 20.8 16.4 11.6 8.8 6.0 5.0[a] 4.3 4.6 1.8
Close

Scenario polls

Nation-wide CSU

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CDU AfD SPD Grüne Linke CSU BSW FDP Others Lead
INSA 29 Aug – 1 Sep 2025 2,004 20 24 12.5 11 10 12.5 3.5 2.5 4 4
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 22.6 20.8 16.4 11.6 8.8 6.0 4.98 4.3 4.6 1.8
Close

Voting intention after hypothetical AfD ban

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke BSW FDP Others Lead
INSA 5–9 May 2025 1,203 30 banned 19 13 12 11 6 9 11
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 28.5 20.8 16.4 11.6 8.8 4.98 4.3 4.6 7.7
Close

By state

Bavaria

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CSU AfD Grüne SPD Linke Free Voters FDP BSW Others Lead
Forsa 1–10 Sep 2025 1,012 33 24 13 9 8 3 3 2 5 9
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 37.2 19.0 12.0 11.5 5.7 4.3 4.2 3.1 2.9 18.2
Close

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 AfD CDU SPD Linke BSW Grüne FDP Others Lead
Infratest dimap 7–11 May 2026 1,153 38 15 15 15 5 6 – 6 23
Forsa 9–16 Feb 2026 1,003 39 15 13 12 7 6 2 6 24
Infratest dimap 21–24 Jan 2026 1,145 37 18 15 12 7 5 – 6 19
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 35.0 17.8 12.4 12.0 10.6 5.4 3.2 3.3 17.2
Close

North Rhine-Westphalia

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CDU SPD AfD Grüne Linke FDP BSW Others Lead
Forsa 7–14 Apr 2026 1,531 26 13 22 18 9 4 – 8 4
Forsa 25 Jun – 2 Jul 2025 1,507 30 18 18 13 9 4 3 5 12
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 30.1 20.0 16.8 12.4 8.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 11.1
Close

By Western and Eastern Germany

Western Germany

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke BSW FDP Others Lead
YouGov 13–16 Mar 2026 1,444 in West Germany 28 23 14 14 8 3 4 5 5
INSA 6–9 Mar 2026 2,003 in all of Germany 27 22 16 13 10 3 4 5 5
YouGov 6–9 Feb 2026 1,278 in West Germany 26 22 17 12 9 3 4 6 4
YouGov 9–12 Jan 2026 1,314 in West Germany 26 23 17 13 9 2 4 6 3
YouGov 12–15 Dec 2025 1,319 in West Germany 28 23 15 13 8 4 4 5 5
INSA 5–8 Dec 2025 2,007 in all of Germany 27 23.5 15.5 11.5 10.5 2.5 4.5 5 3.5
YouGov 14–17 Nov 2025 1,540 in West Germany 29 23 15 12 10 3 4 5 6
INSA 17–20 Oct 2025 2,006 in all of Germany 26 24 14 12 11 4 5 4 2
YouGov 10–13 Oct 2025 1,465 in West Germany 29 24 15 12 9 3 4 5 5
YouGov 12–15 Sep 2025 1,285 in West Germany 28 24 16 12 8 4 4 4 4
INSA 5–8 Sep 2025 2,006 in all of Germany 27 23 15 12 9 4 4 6 4
YouGov 15–18 Aug 2025 1,418 in West Germany 29 23 15 13 9 4 4 4 6
INSA 8–11 Aug 2025 2,008 in all of Germany 29 22 16 12 8 4 3 6 7
YouGov 11–14 Jul 2025 1,420 in West Germany 29 22 15 12 10 4 3 5 7
INSA 27–30 Jun 2025 2,008 in all of Germany 29 21 17 12 9 4 4 4 8
YouGov 13–16 Jun 2025 1,491 in West Germany 30 21 16 14 7 4 4 5 9
YouGov 9–12 May 2025 1,477 in West Germany 29 22 16 14 8 3 3 5 7
YouGov 25–28 Apr 2025 1,520 in West Germany 28 23 15 12 10 4 4 3 5
INSA 11–14 Apr 2025 2,002 in all of Germany 28 21 17 12 9 4 4 5 7
YouGov 21–24 Mar 2025 1,451 in West Germany 29 21 16 13 9 5 4 5 8
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 30.7 17.9 17.6 12.7 7.9 4.6 3.9 4.8 12.8
Close

Eastern Germany

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 AfD CDU Linke SPD BSW Grüne FDP Others Lead
YouGov 13–16 Mar 2026 407 in East Germany 37 18 14 11 4 9 1 6 19
INSA 6–9 Mar 2026 2,003 in all of Germany 37 20 12 13 7 5 3 3 17
YouGov 6–9 Feb 2026 379 in East Germany 35 18 13 12 6 7 4 5 17
YouGov 9–12 Jan 2026 359 in East Germany 35 21 13 9 6 7 5 4 14
YouGov 12–15 Dec 2025 424 in East Germany 36 16 15 10 6 9 4 4 20
INSA 5–8 Dec 2025 2,007 in all of Germany 39.5 14 12 12.5 10.5 7 2.5 2 25.5
YouGov 14–17 Nov 2025 465 in East Germany 35 18 16 11 5 7 5 4 17
INSA 17–20 Oct 2025 2,006 in all of Germany 40 19 12 12 8 5 2 2 21
YouGov 10–13 Oct 2025 415 in East Germany 36 18 17 9 7 7 2 4 18
YouGov 12–15 Sep 2025 364 in East Germany 37 17 11 10 8 8 4 5 20
INSA 5–8 Sep 2025 2,006 in all of Germany 36 19 15 13 7 7 2 1 17
YouGov 15–18 Aug 2025 413 in East Germany 36 18 13 9 9 6 3 5 18
INSA 8–11 Aug 2025 2,008 in all of Germany 37 17 15 10 7 4 4 6 20
YouGov 11–14 Jul 2025 400 in East Germany 36 17 13 9 7 7 4 6 19
INSA 27–30 Jun 2025 2,008 in all of Germany 34 23 13 10 9 7 2 2 11
YouGov 13–16 Jun 2025 421 in East Germany 32 22 14 10 7 9 2 5 10
YouGov 9–12 May 2025 450 in East Germany 36 19 12 10 8 7 5 2 17
YouGov 25–28 Apr 2025 467 in East Germany 35 17 12 11 8 8 4 5 18
INSA 11–14 Apr 2025 2,002 in all of Germany 38 18 12 10 8 7 3 4 20
YouGov 21–24 Mar 2025 439 in East Germany 35 18 15 11 7 8 2 3 17
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 34.6 18.4 12.8 10.9 9.9 6.5 3.1 3.7 16.2
Close

Chancellor polling

Merz vs. Weidel

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Merz
Union		 Weidel
AfD		 None Don't know
INSA 15–18 May 2026 2,005 22 33 36 9
INSA 30 Oct – 3 Nov 2025 2,002 27 29 35 9
INSA 19–22 Sep 2025 2,002 27 29 34 10
INSA 27–30 Jun 2025 2,008 36 27 31 6
INSA 11–14 Apr 2025 2,002 34 26 33 7
INSA 28–31 Mar 2025 2,006 35 27 33 5
INSA 21–24 Mar 2025 2,004 37 28 29 6
Close

Merz vs. Weidel vs. Klingbeil

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Merz
Union		 Weidel
AfD		 Klingbeil
SPD		 None Don't know
INSA 18–19 Dec 2025 1,001 20 26 12 31 11
Close

Preferred coalition

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Union
AfD[b]		 Union
SPD		 Union
SPD
Grüne		 SPD
Grüne
Linke		 Union
SPD
Linke		 Union
INSA 30 Apr – 4 May 2026 2,008 26 23 – 24 – –
INSA 13–16 Mar 2026 2,002 25 – 24 – 14 –
INSA 19–20 Feb 2026 1,003 24 22 – 20 – –
INSA 27–30 Jun 2025 2,008 24 – 13 13 9 9
INSA 11–14 Apr 2025 2,002 26 – 19 – 15 9
INSA 4–7 Apr 2025 2,008 27 – 19 – 14 10
Close

Constituency projections

With the 2023 electoral reform fixing the number of seats to 630, constituency seats are only awarded if covered by the votes cast for the party in that state. As such, the number of constituency seats won by a party may be lower than that party's number of constituency pluralities.[14] In the 2025 German federal election, 23 constituency winners were left out.

Constituency pluralities

More information Polling firm, Release date ...
Polling firm Release date Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke
election.de 15 May 2026 165 65 42 21 6
election.de 15 Apr 2026 180 52 43 18 6
election.de 15 Mar 2026 179 49 49 15 7
election.de 15 Feb 2026 176 50 51 15 7
election.de 15 Jan 2026 180 52 45 15 7
election.de 15 Dec 2025 182 52 43 15 7
election.de 15 Nov 2025 181 52 45 14 7
election.de 15 Oct 2025 183 52 43 13 8
election.de 15 Sep 2025 186 49 43 14 7
INSA 15 Sep 2025 178 61 39 13 8
INSA 8 Sep 2025 172 73 34 12 8
INSA 1 Sep 2025 172 68 39 12 8
INSA 25 Aug 2025 159 73 48 12 7
INSA 18 Aug 2025 177 61 41 12 8
election.de 15 Aug 2025 188 49 41 14 7
INSA 11 Aug 2025 197 55 29 10 8
INSA 4 Aug 2025 194 54 36 10 5
INSA 28 Jul 2025 195 51 38 9 6
INSA 21 Jul 2025 204 53 26 10 6
election.de 15 Jul 2025 197 48 36 11 7
INSA 14 Jul 2025 191 49 40 13 6
INSA 7 Jul 2025 205 50 26 13 5
INSA 30 Jun 2025 190 46 43 14 6
INSA 23 Jun 2025 186 47 47 13 6
INSA 16 Jun 2025 184 48 46 16 5
election.de 15 Jun 2025 189 49 41 13 7
INSA 10 Jun 2025 195 47 44 10 3
INSA 2 Jun 2025 182 52 52 9 4
INSA 26 May 2025 174 54 52 13 6
INSA 19 May 2025 180 55 44 15 5
election.de 15 May 2025 181 51 46 13 8
INSA 12 May 2025 160 61 60 14 4
INSA 5 May 2025 157 66 57 14 5
INSA 28 Apr 2025 158 69 51 16 5
INSA 22 Apr 2025 174 58 48 14 5
election.de 15 Apr 2025 181 50 47 14 7
INSA 14 Apr 2025 165 50 59 20 5
INSA 7 Apr 2025 160 65 56 13 5
INSA 31 Mar 2025 178 48 51 16 6
INSA 24 Mar 2025 192 52 35 12 8
INSA 17 Mar 2025 199 44 40 7 9
election.de 15 Mar 2025 192 45 43 11 8
INSA 10 Mar 2025 189 41 55 8 6
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 190 46 45 12 6
Close

By probability

More information Polling firm, Release date ...
Polling firm Release date Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke
Safe Likely Lean Safe Likely Lean Safe Likely Lean Safe Likely Lean Safe Likely Lean
election.de 15 May 2026 24 78 63 41 4 20 0 14 28 0 8 13 1 3 2
election.de 15 Apr 2026 32 95 53 38 6 8 0 15 28 0 6 12 2 3 1
election.de 15 Mar 2026 45 84 50 34 9 6 3 16 30 0 3 12 2 3 2
election.de 15 Feb 2026 35 89 52 37 7 6 3 15 33 0 3 12 2 3 2
election.de 15 Jan 2026 32 92 56 38 6 8 0 15 30 0 3 12 2 3 2
election.de 15 Dec 2025 34 94 54 37 7 8 0 15 28 0 3 12 2 4 1
election.de 15 Nov 2025 34 96 51 38 6 8 1 14 30 0 3 11 2 4 1
election.de 15 Oct 2025 34 97 52 38 6 8 1 14 28 0 3 10 2 4 2
election.de 15 Sep 2025 51 92 43 34 9 6 3 13 27 0 3 11 2 4 1
election.de 15 Aug 2025 58 85 45 33 10 6 1 14 26 0 3 11 2 3 2
election.de 15 Jul 2025 80 78 39 31 11 6 1 13 22 0 3 8 2 3 2
election.de 15 Jun 2025 57 87 45 33 10 6 2 14 25 0 3 10 2 4 1
election.de 15 May 2025 38 95 48 35 9 7 2 13 31 0 3 10 2 4 2
election.de 15 Apr 2025 41 93 47 35 9 6 3 13 31 0 3 11 2 4 1
election.de 15 Mar 2025 82 75 35 31 11 3 3 12 28 0 2 9 2 4 2
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 190 46 45 12 6
Close

Second place

More information Polling firm, Release date ...
Polling firm Release date SPD Union AfD Grüne Linke
election.de 15 May 2026 57 79 139 19 5
election.de 15 Apr 2026 69 77 128 20 5
election.de 15 Mar 2026 83 81 111 20 4
election.de 15 Feb 2026 76 82 117 20 4
election.de 15 Jan 2026 67 77 131 20 4
election.de 15 Dec 2025 70 77 129 19 4
election.de 15 Nov 2025 70 77 128 20 4
election.de 15 Oct 2025 71 75 129 21 3
election.de 15 Sep 2025 79 78 117 21 4
election.de 15 Aug 2025 80 80 114 21 4
election.de 15 Jul 2025 89 78 104 24 4
election.de 15 Jun 2025 81 79 113 22 4
election.de 15 May 2025 72 81 122 21 3
election.de 15 Apr 2025 75 82 117 21 4
election.de 15 Mar 2025 94 82 96 24 3
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025 111 82 79 22 5
Close

Notes

  1. [a]
    Rounded from 4.98%, which is below the threshold for parliamentary representation in Germany.
  2. [b]
    Coalition would break the cordon sanitaire/firewall against the far-right in Germany with the AfD.

References

External links

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