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Post-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election

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The following is the post-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election. It is based on notional margins calculated by psephologist Kevin Bonham.[1]

Post-election pendulum

This is the post-election pendulum, based on the results of the election.[2]

Labor seats (45)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Penrith Karen McKeown ALP 1.6%
East Hills Kylie Wilkinson ALP 1.7%
Monaro Steve Whan ALP 2.3% v NAT
Camden Sally Quinell ALP 3.0%
Riverstone Warren Kirby ALP 3.7%
South Coast Liza Butler ALP 3.8%
Fairly safe
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 7.8%
Liverpool Charishma Kaliyanda ALP 8.4%
Parramatta Donna Davis ALP 8.6%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 8.7%
Leppington Nathan Hagarty ALP 8.9%
Heathcote Maryanne Stuart ALP 9.9%
Safe
Bega Michael Holland ALP 10.4%
Cabramatta Tri Vo ALP 11.8%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 12.3%
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li ALP 13.1%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 13.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 15.0% v NAT
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 15.4%
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 15.4%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 15.4%
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 16.3% v GRN
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 17.1% v IND
Very Safe
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 18.3%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 18.6%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 18.7%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 19.0%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP 19.1%
Wyong David Harris ALP 19.8%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 19.9%
Bankstown Jihad Dib ALP 20.3%
Fairfield David Saliba ALP 20.9%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 21.1%
Granville Julia Finn ALP 21.5%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 21.9%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 22.4%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 22.6%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 23.3%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 23.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 23.4% v ONP
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP 24.0%
Keira Ryan Park ALP 24.2%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 24.3%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP 25.8%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 31.8%
Liberal/National seats (36)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Ryde Jordan Lane LIB 0.1%[a]
Holsworthy Tina Ayyad LIB 0.4%
Pittwater Rory Amon LIB 0.7% v IND
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 0.8%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 1.2%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 1.3%
Drummoyne Stephanie Di Pasqua LIB 1.3%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 1.8%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 2.3%
Willoughby Tim James LIB 2.6% v IND
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 3.6%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell NAT 3.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB 4.8%
Manly James Griffin LIB 4.8% v IND
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 5.5%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB 5.7% v IND
Fairly safe
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB 8.0%
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB 9.8%
Safe
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 10.5%
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB 10.6%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams LIB 10.8% v NAT[b]
Castle Hill Mark Hodges LIB 10.9%
Kellyville Ray Williams LIB 11.0%
Oxley Michael Kemp NAT 12.8%
Vaucluse Kellie Sloane LIB 12.9% v IND
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 13.2%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 13.8%
Davidson Matt Cross LIB 13.9%
Clarence Richie Williamson NAT 14.3%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 15.8% v IND
Myall Lakes Tanya Thompson NAT 15.8%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB 16.3%
Very safe
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT 18.6%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 23.6%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT 32.1%
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT 33.8%
Crossbench seats (12)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Kiama Gareth Ward IND 0.8% v ALP
Wollondilly Judy Hannan IND 1.5% v LIB
Balmain Kobi Shetty GRN 1.8% v ALP
Wakehurst Michael Regan IND 4.5% v LIB
Fairly safe
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 7.7% v NAT
Safe
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 12.1% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 15.6% v ALP
Barwon Roy Butler IND 16.0% v NAT
Murray Helen Dalton IND 16.0% v NAT
Very safe
Orange Philip Donato IND 21.9% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 22.4% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 24.1% v ALP

Notes

  1. [a]
    Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
  2. [b]
    At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs Labor margin is 16.7%.

References

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