Pre-election pendulum for the 2028 Australian federal election

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The Australian Labor Party won the 2025 federal election in a landslide, securing 94 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Coalition won 43 seats. In the aftermath of the election, the National Party of Australia twice withdrew from its coalition agreement with the Liberal Party, most notably in January 2026 when all Nationals frontbenchers resigned following a dispute over the government's hate speech laws, describing the relationship as “untenable.”[1][2]

Seat classification

The Australian Electoral Commission classifies seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe based on the winning party's two-candidate-preferred vote: less than 56% is classified as marginal, 56–60% as fairly safe, and more than 60% as safe.[3]

Mackerras pendulum

The Mackerras pendulum, devised by Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, is a method for analysing elections in two-party, Westminster-style lower house systems such as the Australian House of Representatives. Seats held by the government, the opposition and the crossbenches are ordered by their two-candidate-preferred (2CP) margin, representing the uniform swing required for each seat to change hands. Under the assumption of a uniform swing, the pendulum can be used to estimate the number of seats likely to change hands between elections.

Pendulum (2CP)

Government (94 seats)
Marginal (22)
Bean ACT David Smith ALP v IND 0.34
Bullwinkel WA Trish Cook ALP 0.51
Fremantle WA Josh Wilson ALP v IND 0.69
Menzies Vic Gabriel Ng ALP 1.08
Petrie Qld Emma Comer ALP 1.17
Solomon NT Luke Gosling ALP 1.31
Bendigo Vic Lisa Chesters ALP v NAT 1.40
Wills Vic Peter Khalil ALP v GRN 1.43
Forde Qld Rowan Holzberger ALP 1.77
Banks NSW Zhi Soon ALP 2.39
Deakin Vic Matt Gregg ALP 2.82
Moore WA Tom French ALP 2.89
Melbourne Vic Sarah Witty ALP v GRN 3.02
Hughes NSW David Moncrieff ALP 3.06
Aston Vic Mary Doyle ALP 3.43
McEwen Vic Rob Mitchell ALP 4.76
Bonner Qld Kara Cook ALP 5.00
Calwell Vic Basem Abdo ALP v IND 5.08
Gilmore NSW Fiona Phillips ALP 5.13
Chisholm Vic Carina Garland ALP 5.70
Blair Qld Shayne Neumann ALP 5.71
Dickson Qld Ali France ALP 5.99
Fairly safe (24)
Leichhardt Qld Matt Smith ALP 6.06
Whitlam NSW Carol Berry ALP 6.25
Pearce WA Tracey Roberts ALP 6.44
Sturt SA Claire Clutterham ALP 6.62
Werriwa NSW Anne Stanley ALP 6.77
Paterson NSW Meryl Swanson ALP 6.89
Tangney WA Sam Lim ALP 6.99
Dunkley Vic Jodie Belyea ALP 7.08
Braddon Tas Anne Urquhart ALP 7.20
Eden-Monaro NSW Kristy McBain ALP 7.21
Hawke Vic Sam Rae ALP 7.63
Macquarie NSW Susan Templeman ALP 7.71
Franklin Tas Julie Collins ALP v IND 7.78
Bass Tas Jess Teesdale ALP 8.01
Corangamite Vic Libby Coker ALP 8.05
Lingiari NT Marion Scrymgour ALP 8.13
Brisbane Qld Madonna Jarrett ALP 8.96
McMahon NSW Chris Bowen ALP 9.02
Hunter NSW Daniel Repacholi ALP v ONP 9.04
Fraser Vic Daniel Mulino ALP v GRN 9.23
Bennelong NSW Jerome Laxale ALP 9.26
Robertson NSW Gordon Reid ALP 9.37
Dobell NSW Emma McBride ALP 9.43
Cooper Vic Ged Kearney ALP v GRN 9.72
Safe (48)
Richmond NSW Justine Elliot ALP 10.00
Gorton Vic Alice Jordan-Baird ALP 10.28
Griffith Qld Renee Coffey ALP v GRN 10.57
Ballarat Vic Catherine King ALP 10.66
Boothby SA Louise Miller-Frost ALP 11.10
Shortland NSW Pat Conroy ALP 11.51
Lyons Tas Rebecca White ALP 11.58
Macnamara Vic Josh Burns ALP 11.80
Reid NSW Sally Sitou ALP 12.01
Parramatta NSW Andrew Charlton ALP 12.55
Maribyrnong Vic Jo Briskey ALP 12.65
Jagajaga Vic Kate Thwaites ALP 12.88
Lalor Vic Joanne Ryan ALP 13.21
Corio Vic Richard Marles ALP 13.23
Cowan WA Anne Aly ALP 13.63
Greenway NSW Michelle Rowland ALP 13.76
Swan WA Zaneta Mascarenhas ALP 13.99
Holt Vic Cassandra Fernando ALP 14.03
Scullin Vic Andrew Giles ALP 14.29
Isaacs Vic Mark Dreyfus ALP 14.34
Lilley Qld Anika Wells ALP 14.52
Bruce Vic Julian Hill ALP 14.62
Makin SA Tony Zappia ALP 14.66
Gellibrand Vic Tim Watts ALP 15.10
Spence SA Matt Burnell ALP 15.34
Rankin Qld Jim Chalmers ALP 15.55
Macarthur NSW Mike Freelander ALP 15.61
Burt WA Matt Keogh ALP 15.71
Newcastle NSW Sharon Claydon ALP v GRN 15.80
Hasluck WA Tania Lawrence ALP 15.97
Barton NSW Ash Ambihaipahar ALP 16.00
Moreton Qld Julie-Ann Campbell ALP 16.09
Hindmarsh SA Mark Butler ALP 16.35
Perth WA Patrick Gorman ALP 16.51
Watson NSW Tony Burke ALP v IND 16.52
Hotham Vic Clare O'Neil ALP 16.86
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP v GRN 16.86
Brand WA Madeleine King ALP 16.92
Kingsford Smith NSW Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 17.19
Cunningham NSW Alison Byrnes ALP 17.52
Adelaide SA Steve Georganas ALP 19.07
Oxley Qld Milton Dick ALP 19.19
Canberra ACT Alicia Payne ALP v GRN 19.52
Chifley NSW Ed Husic ALP 19.83
Kingston SA Amanda Rishworth ALP 20.74
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP v GRN 20.95
Blaxland NSW Jason Clare ALP 21.90
Fenner ACT Andrew Leigh ALP 22.08
Opposition (42 seats)
Marginal (18)
Goldstein Vic Tim Wilson LIB v IND 0.08
Longman Qld Terry Young LNP 0.11
Berowra NSW Julian Leeser LIB 1.63
La Trobe Vic Jason Wood LIB 2.06
Forrest WA Ben Small LIB 2.24
Flinders Vic Zoe McKenzie LIB v IND 2.29
Bowman Qld Henry Pike LNP 2.43
Cowper NSW Pat Conaghan NAT v IND 2.54
Lindsay NSW Melissa McIntosh LIB 2.78
Casey Vic Aaron Violi LIB 2.89
Fairfax Qld Ted O'Brien LNP 3.23
Wannon Vic Dan Tehan LIB v IND 3.27
Mitchell NSW Alex Hawke LIB 3.81
Monash Vic Mary Aldred LIB 4.09
McPherson Qld Leon Rebello LNP 4.44
Grey SA Tom Venning LIB 4.64
Groom Qld Garth Hamilton LNP v IND 5.67
Capricornia Qld Michelle Landry LNP 5.83
Fairly safe (12)
Fisher Qld Andrew Wallace LNP 6.03
Hinkler Qld David Batt LNP 6.26
Canning WA Andrew Hastie LIB 6.55
Fadden Qld Cameron Caldwell LNP 6.88
Cook NSW Simon Kennedy LIB 7.19
Wide Bay Qld Llew O'Brien LNP 7.63
Wright Qld Scott Buchholz LNP 7.98
Hume NSW Angus Taylor LIB 8.06
Moncrieff Qld Angie Bell LNP 8.80
Page NSW Kevin Hogan NAT 9.29
Lyne NSW Alison Penfold NAT 9.78
Safe (12)
Durack WA Melissa Price LIB 10.15
Flynn Qld Colin Boyce LNP 10.24
Dawson Qld Andrew Willcox LNP 11.83
Riverina NSW Michael McCormack NAT 12.62
Parkes NSW Jamie Chaffey NAT 12.97
Barker SA Tony Pasin LIB 12.98
O'Connor WA Rick Wilson LIB 13.28
Herbert Qld Phillip Thompson LNP 13.41
Nicholls Vic Sam Birrell NAT 14.38
Mallee Vic Anne Webster NAT 19.04
Gippsland Vic Darren Chester NAT 19.36
Maranoa Qld David Littleproud LNP v ONP 20.10
Crossbench (14 seats)
Marginal (6)
Bradfield NSW Nicolette Boele IND v LIB 0.01
Kooyong Vic Monique Ryan IND v LIB 0.67
Fowler NSW Dai Le IND v ALP 2.68
Ryan Qld Elizabeth Watson-Brown GRN v LNP 3.27
Curtin WA Kate Chaney IND v LIB 3.27
Mackellar NSW Sophie Scamps IND v LIB 5.66
Fairly safe (3)
Calare NSW Andrew Gee IND v NAT 6.78
Farrer NSW David Farley PHON v IND 7.72
Wentworth NSW Allegra Spender IND v LIB 8.34
Indi Vic Helen Haines IND v LIB 8.64
Safe (5)
Warringah NSW Zali Steggall IND v LIB 11.20
Mayo SA Rebekha Sharkie CA v ALP 14.89
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter KAP v LNP 15.75
New England NSW Barnaby Joyce (PHON) NAT 17.06[a]
Clark Tas Andrew Wilkie IND v ALP 20.38

Notes

  1. [a]
    Barnaby Joyce was elected as a member of the National Party of Australia at the 2025 Australian federal election but subsequently left the party to join Pauline Hanson's One Nation in December.

References

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