2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election
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The 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Minnesota. It was held concurrently with the election to Minnesota's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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November 4, 2014
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   Dayton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Johnson: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor governor Mark Dayton ran for re-election to a second term in office.[1] Incumbent Democratic lieutenant governor Yvonne Prettner Solon retired and Tina Smith was selected as his new running mate.[2]
Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014. Dayton and Smith won the Democratic primary and the Republicans nominated Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson and his running mate former state representative Bill Kuisle. In the general election, Dayton and Smith defeated them and several other minor party candidates with just over 50% of the vote. Dayton's victory broke his own record, set in 2010, as the oldest Minnesota gubernatorial candidate to win an election; he was 67.[3] It was also the first gubernatorial race since 1994 in which the winner received a majority of the votes cast.
The election was the first time since 1994 that a third party did not gain more than 6% of the total vote.
Background
Incumbent Republican governor Tim Pawlenty declined to run for a third term in 2010, instead running for the Republican presidential nomination in the 2012 election. State Representative Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination, and former U.S. senator Mark Dayton won the DFL nomination with a plurality over State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. After a very close race, Dayton defeated Emmer by just 8,770 votes, 0.42% of all votes cast.
Dayton's victory was one of just four that Minnesota Democrats have achieved out of 28 gubernatorial elections during a Democratic presidency.[4] Despite this, and despite his narrow margin of victory in 2010, Dayton was not seen as a top Republican target. The Cook Political Report[5] and The Rothenberg Political Report[6] both rated the race as "safe Democratic", and Daily Kos Elections,[7] Governing[8] and Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] all rated the race as "likely Democratic".
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary
Candidates
Declared
- Bill Dahn
- Running mate: James Vigliotti
- Leslie Davis, activist[10]
- Running mate: Gregor Soderberg[11]
- Mark Dayton, incumbent governor[1]
- Running mate: Tina Smith, Dayton's former chief of staff[12]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Mark Dayton/Tina Smith (incumbent) | 177,849 | 92.99 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Leslie Davis/Gregor Soderberg | 8,530 | 4.46 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Bill Dahn/James Vigliotti | 4,880 | 2.55 | |
| Total votes | 191,259 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
Until 2014, Minnesota Republicans had not had a competitive gubernatorial primary since 1924, when Theodore Christianson beat Ole Jacobson by 2.8%, taking 22.8% of the vote in a six-candidate race that saw five candidates finish in double digits. In every election since then, the nominee had won the primary by at least 17.8% and on average by 62.2%.[14]
At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, Jeff Johnson received the party's endorsement. Dave A. Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Johnson. Scott Honour, Marty Seifert and Kurt Zellers all ran in the August primary, but Johnson prevailed with 30% of the vote.[15][16]
Candidates
Declared
- Merrill Anderson, former director of Reachout Today Inc and candidate for mayor of Minneapolis in 2013[17][18]
- Running mate: Mark D. Anderson, former realtor and housing counselor.
- Scott Honour, investment banker[19]
- Running mate: Karin Housley, state senator[20]
- Jeff Johnson, Hennepin County commissioner and former state representative[21][22]
- Running mate: Bill Kuisle, former state representative and farmer
- Marty Seifert, former Minority Leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives and candidate for governor in 2010[23]
- Kurt Zellers, state representative and former speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives[25]
- Running mate: Dean Simpson, former state representative[26]
Withdrawn
- Rob Farnsworth, teacher and candidate for Minnesota's 8th congressional district in 2010[15][27]
- Ole Savior, perennial candidate (ran for the U.S. Senate)[28]
- Dave A. Thompson, state senator and former radio host[15][29]
- Running mate: Michelle Benson, state senator[30]
Declined
- Kurt Bills, former state representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[31]
- Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator and nominee for governor in 1998[32]
- Matt Dean, state representative and former Majority Leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives[33]
- Keith Downey, chairman of the Republican Party of Minnesota and former state representative[34]
- Tom Emmer, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2010 (running for Congress)[35][36]
- Bill Guidera, finance chair of the Republican Party of Minnesota[37]
- David Hann, minority leader of the Minnesota Senate and candidate for governor in 2010[38]
- Karin Housley, state senator (running for lieutenant governor on Scott Honour's ticket)[20][39]
- Bill Ingebrigtsen, state senator[40]
- John Kline, U.S. representative[41]
- John Kriesel, former state representative[42]
- Susan Marvin, businesswoman[43]
- Erik Paulsen, U.S. representative[44]
- Tim Pawlenty, former governor[45]
- Julie Rosen, state senator[46]
- Ron Schutz, attorney[45]
- Rich Stanek, Hennepin County sheriff[47]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Rob Farnsworth |
Scott Honour |
Jeff Johnson |
Julie Rosen |
Ole Savior |
Marty Seifert |
Dave A. Thompson |
Kurt Zellers |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[48] | June 5–9, 2014 | 404 | ± 5% | — | 9% | 23% | — | — | 14% | — | 23% | 33%[a] |
| Suffolk[49] | April 24–28, 2014 | 73 | ± ? | 1% | 2% | 7% | — | 1% | 10% | 5% | 8% | 68% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 305 | ± 5.7% | — | 6% | 8% | 10% | — | 9% | 11% | 12% | 44% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Norm Coleman |
Keith Downey |
David Hann |
Jeff Johnson |
Julie Rosen |
Marty Seifert |
Kurt Zellers |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 275 | ± 5.9% | 57% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 17% |
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||||
| Merrill Anderson | Scott Honour | Jeff Johnson | Marty Seifert | Kurt Zellers | |||||
| 1 | Jul. 30, 2014 | Minnesota Public Radio | Mike Mulcahy | YouTube | N | P | P | P | P |
Results
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Johnson/Bill Kuisle | 55,836 | 30.33 | |
| Republican | Kurt Zellers/Dean Simpson | 44,046 | 23.92 | |
| Republican | Marty Seifert/Pam Myhra | 38,851 | 21.10 | |
| Republican | Scott Honour/Karin Housley | 38,377 | 20.84 | |
| Republican | Merrill Anderson/Mark Anderson | 7,000 | 3.80 | |
| Total votes | 184,110 | 100.00 | ||
Independence primary
The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato.[52]
Candidates
Nominee
Declined
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independence | Hannah Nicollet/Tim Gieseke | 5,822 | 100 | |
| Total votes | 5,822 | 100 | ||
Libertarian Party
The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove.[57]
Candidates
Nominee
Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis Party
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 1, 2014 - C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 8, 2014 - YouTube
- Complete video of debate, October 9, 2014 - YouTube
- Complete video of debate, October 14, 2014 - YouTube
- Complete video of debate, October 19, 2014 - YouTube
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[61] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[63] | Safe D | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[64] | Lean D | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Jeff Johnson (R) |
Hannah Nicollet (IP) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV[65] | October 27–30, 2014 | 596 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 42% | 2% | 4%[b] | 4% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[66] | October 16–23, 2014 | 2,430 | ± 3% | 50% | 41% | — | 1% | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune[67] | October 20–22, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV[68] | October 14–16, 2014 | 597 | ± 4.1% | 50% | 40% | 3% | 3%[c] | 4% |
| SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV[69] | September 30 – October 2, 2014 | 577 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 39% | 4% | 2%[d] | 4% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[70] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 2,562 | ± 2% | 49% | 42% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[71] | September 29–30, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 50% | 40% | — | — | 10% |
| Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune[72] | September 8–10, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 33% | 1% | 1% | 20% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[73] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 3,607 | ± 2% | 48% | 41% | — | 2% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV[74] | August 19–21, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 3% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[71] | August 13–14, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 49% | 41% | — | — | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing[75] | July 2–3, 2014 | 879 | ± 3% | 52% | 37% | 11% | — | — |
| Public Policy Polling[76] | June 12–15, 2014 | 633 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 36% | — | — | 16% |
| SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV[77] | June 5–9, 2014 | 1,017 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 40% | 5% | 2% | 6% |
| Suffolk University[78] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 44% | 30% | — | — | 26% |
| SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV[79] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 34% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 37% | — | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 52% | 34% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 53% | 29% | — | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Merrill Anderson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[76] | June 12–15, 2014 | 633 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 35% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Norm Coleman (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 52% | 39% | — | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Kurt Daudt (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 39% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Keith Downey (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 53% | 30% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Tom Emmer (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 52% | 39% | — | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
David Hann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 36% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Scott Honour (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[76] | June 12–15, 2014 | 633 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 35% | — | 19% |
| SurveyUSA[48] | June 5–9, 2014 | 1,017 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | 10%[e] | 6% |
| Suffolk[49] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 45% | 28% | — | 27% |
| SurveyUSA[81] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 | ± 4.3% | 53% | 33% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 38% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 52% | 34% | — | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Tim Pawlenty (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 50% | 42% | — | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Julie Rosen (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 36% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 34% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 52% | 27% | — | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Marty Seifert (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[82] | July 5–24, 2014 | 3,170 | ± 2% | 53% | 37% | 6% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[76] | June 12–15, 2014 | 633 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 36% | — | 17% |
| SurveyUSA[48] | June 5–9, 2014 | 1,017 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 38% | 10%[e] | 6% |
| Suffolk[49] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 43% | 32% | — | 25% |
| SurveyUSA[81] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 | ± 4.3% | 51% | 34% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 37% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Dave A. Thompson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk[49] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 43% | 31% | — | 26% |
| SurveyUSA[81] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 RV | ± 4.3% | 53% | 32% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 37% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 35% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Kurt Zellers (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[76] | June 12–15, 2014 | 633 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 37% | — | 16% |
| SurveyUSA[48] | June 5–9, 2014 | 1,017 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | 9%[f] | 5% |
| Suffolk[49] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 43% | 31% | — | 26% |
| SurveyUSA[81] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 38% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 53% | 35% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 52% | 29% | — | 19% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) |
|
989,113 | 50.07% | +6.44% | |
| Republican | 879,257 | 44.51% | +1.30% | ||
| Independence |
|
56,900 | 2.88% | −9.06% | |
| Grassroots—LC |
|
31,259 | 1.58% | +1.23% | |
| Libertarian |
|
18,082 | 0.92% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,134 | 0.06% | −0.05% | ||
| Total votes | 1,975,406 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 1,992,566 | 50.51% | −5.32% | ||
| Registered electors | 3,945,136 | ||||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Grant (largest city: Elbow Lake)
- Houston (largest city: La Crescent)
- Pennington (largest city: Thief River Falls)
- Pine (largest city: Pine City)
- Pope (largest city: Glenwood)
- Stevens (largest city: Morris)
- Watonwan (largest city: St. James)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Polk (largest city: East Grand Forks)
By congressional district
Despite losing the state, Johnson won five of eight congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[84]
| District | Dayton | Johnson | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 45% | 48% | Tim Walz |
| 2nd | 46% | 49% | John Kline |
| 3rd | 46% | 50% | Erik Paulsen |
| 4th | 59% | 36% | Betty McCollum |
| 5th | 71% | 23% | Keith Ellison |
| 6th | 39% | 55% | Tom Emmer |
| 7th | 44% | 50% | Collin Peterson |
| 8th | 51% | 43% | Rick Nolan |