Second presidency of Nicolás Maduro

The possibility of a United States-led invasion of Venezuela was frequently discussed during the presidencies of Donald Trump.

In 2017, during his first presidency, Trump said that he was "not going to rule out a military option" to address the worsening crisis in Venezuela. In 2025, during his second presidency, the United States surged military assets to the Caribbean as part of Operation Southern Spear, citing the fight against drug cartels as its stated objective. During this buildup, experts, analysts and current and former government officials stated that the assets deployed were insufficient for an invasion and that they viewed an invasion as unlikely.

In 2026, the United States launched Operation Absolute Resolve, conducting airstrikes on Venezuela and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. This led to questions being raised about the possibility of long-term military intervention involving ground troops in Venezuela.

An investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to analyze possible crimes against humanity committed in Venezuela was opened in 2021.^[15] A preliminary examination was initially opened in 2006, and closed after concluding that the requirements to start an investigation had not been met.^[16] In February 2018, the ICC announced that it would open preliminary probes into alleged crimes against humanity performed by Venezuelan authorities since at least April 2017.^[17] In 2020, the Office of the Prosecutor of the ICC stated that it believed there was a "reasonable basis" to believe that "since at least April 2017, civilian authorities, members of the armed forces and pro-government individuals have committed the crimes against humanity",^[18] and on 2021 ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan announced the opening of an investigation regarding the situation in the country.^[15]

The Venezuelan presidential crisis was a political crisis concerning the leadership and legitimate president of Venezuela between 2019 and 2023, with the nation and the world divided in support for Nicolás Maduro or Juan Guaidó.

Venezuela is engulfed in a political and economic crisis which has led to seven million people leaving since 2015. The process and results of the 2018 presidential elections were widely disputed.^[34][35] The opposition-majority National Assembly declared Maduro a usurper of the presidency on the day of his second inauguration and disclosed a plan to set forth its president Guaidó as the succeeding acting president under article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution.^[35][36] A week later, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice declared that the presidency of the National Assembly was the "usurper" of authority and declared the body to be unconstitutional.^[35] Minutes after Maduro took the oath as president, the Organization of American States (OAS) approved a resolution declaring Maduro's presidency illegitimate and urging new elections.^[37] Meetings of the OAS on 24 January and the United Nations Security Council on 26 January were held but no consensus reached.^[38] During the 49th General Assembly of the Organization of American States on 27 June, Guaidó's presidency was recognized by the organization.^[39] Guaidó and the National Assembly declared he was acting president and swore himself in on 23 January.^[40]

At his peak, Guaidó was recognized as legitimate by about 60 countries, despite never running as president; Maduro by about 20 countries.^[41][42][43] However, Guaidó's international support waned.^[44] Support followed geopolitical lines, with Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, Syria, and Turkey supporting Maduro, while most Western and Latin American countries supported Guaidó.^[41][45][46] Support for Guaidó began to decline when an uprising attempt in 2019 failed.^[47][48] Following this failure, representatives of Guaidó and Maduro began mediation.^[49] After a second meeting in Norway, no deal was reached.^[50] In July 2019, negotiations started again in Barbados.^[51][52][53] In September, Guaidó announced the end of dialogue following a forty-day absence by the Maduro government as a protest against US sanctions. In March 2020, the US proposed a transitional government that would exclude Maduro and Guaidó from the presidency.^[54] U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the US would lift sanctions if Maduro agreed to organize elections that did not include him.^[55] Guaidó accepted the proposal,^[56] while Venezuela's foreign minister, Jorge Arreaza, rejected it.^[57]

By January 2020, efforts by Guaidó to create a transitional government had been unsuccessful and Maduro continued to control state institutions.^[58][59][60] In January 2021, the European Union stopped recognizing Guaidó as president, but still did not recognize Maduro as president;^[61] the European Parliament reaffirmed its recognition of Guaidó as president,^[62][63] and the EU threatened with further sanctions.^[61] After the announcement of regional elections in 2021, Guaidó announced a "national salvation agreement" and proposed negotiation with Maduro, with a schedule for free and fair elections, with international observers, in exchange for lifting sanctions.^[64]

In December 2022, three of the four main opposition political parties backed and approved a plan to dissolve the interim government and create a commission of five members to manage foreign assets, as deputies sought a united strategy ahead of the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election,^[65][66] stating that the interim government had failed to achieve the goals it had set.^[67]

The 2019 Venezuelan protests were a collection of protests that were organized, since 11 January, as a coordinated effort to remove Nicolás Maduro from the presidency. Demonstrations began following Maduro's controversial second inauguration, developing into a presidential crisis between Maduro and National Assembly president Juan Guaidó. The protests also included counter-demonstrations organized by those who support Maduro.

The protests partially resumed early in 2020, but were suspended due to the arrival of COVID-19 to Venezuela.

On 30 April 2019, during the Venezuelan presidential crisis, a group of several dozen military personnel^[68] and civilians joined Juan Guaidó in his call for the removal of Nicolás Maduro as part of what he labeled "Operation Freedom" (Spanish: Operación Libertad). Reuters reported an "uneasy peace" by the afternoon of 30 April.^[68] During the unrest, opposition leader Leopoldo López was freed from house arrest after being imprisoned for five years.^[69] Manuel Cristopher Figuera, the head of the Bolivarian Intelligence Service, denounced the Maduro government and was dismissed from his position^[70] before going into hiding.^[71] At least 25 military men who opposed Maduro sought asylum at the Brazilian embassy in Caracas.^[72]

On 26 January 2022, the Venezuelan opposition promoted a recall referendum against the Nicolás Maduro government. The National Electoral Council ordered the collection of the required signatures, 20% of the electoral registry, to be carried out in a single day, the equivalent of having to collect four million signatures in twelve hours, which resulted in not reaching the required signatures, the referendum being declared inadmissible and making it impossible to summon for another recall for Maduro's second presidential term.^[73]

[[File:|thumb|Protests following 2024 presidential election]]

Protests followed the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election on 28 July, in response to voter fraud and other irregularities during the election cycle, as part of the 2024 Venezuelan political crisis. The election and unrest occurred in the context of the ongoing crisis in Venezuela.

Statistical analyses by multiple organizations^[74] indicated that the election was won convincingly by Edmundo Gonzalez but those results have not been recognized by incumbent Nicolás Maduro; the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD), an alliance of opposition parties, released vote tallies at the precinct level indicating that González won by a wide margin, while the government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) announced an unsubstantiated result, without any precinct-level tallies, stating Maduro won. Both candidates claimed victory, while many countries recognized González as the winner.

Demonstrations to uphold the results of the election, along with vigils for political prisoners, occurred worldwide after the July election. Spontaneous protests broke out immediately after the election, while later rallies were organized by the Venezuelan opposition;^[75] Maduro claimed the opposition was encouraging a coup and has charged demonstraters with terrorism, while initiating an unprecedented crackdown.^[76] Maduro's security forces have gone door-to-door seeking to arrest protesters, poll workers and members of the opposition in what Maduro has referred to as Operation Tun Tun, and armed bands of Maduro supporters known as colectivos have joined security forces in repressing dissent. As of 14 August 2024, at least 2,200 persons are reported to have been arrested, and 25 killed;^[77] Maduro has announced plans to continue to seek the arrest of dissenters, and to rehabilitate two prisons to house those detained.

The repression has been widely condemned by international groups; Amnesty International penned an open letter requesting urgent action from the International Criminal Court (ICC),^[78] on the basis of an ongoing ICC investigation of possible crimes against humanity under Maduro's regime.