2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election
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The 2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of South Dakota. Incumbent Republican governor Dennis Daugaard was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term.
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November 6, 2018
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  Noem: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Sutton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Republican candidate Kristi Noem won against Democratic candidate Billie Sutton in the closest gubernatorial election in South Dakota history.[1] Noem also became the first female governor of the state.[2] Her victory extended the longest active hold on a governorship by one party; the GOP had won every gubernatorial election in South Dakota starting in 1978. Conversely, Noem's vote percentage of 51.0% was the worst performance for any Republican gubernatorial candidate in the state since 1974, while Sutton's 47.6% was the best for any Democratic candidate since 1986.
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Marty Jackley, Attorney General of South Dakota[3][4]
- Kristi Noem, U.S. representative, former state representative[5][6]
Failed to qualify for primary ballot
- Lora Hubbel, former state representative, Republican candidate for governor in 2014[7]
Declined
Debates
Jackley and Noem participated in three debates.
First debate
In the first debate, both candidates tried to define the other. Jackley stated: "It’s Washington experience versus South Dakota experience." Noem said, "Marty’s background has been being a government lawyer."[12]
Second debate
In the second debate, Noem discussed Jackley's scandals. "In EB5, the state oversight program, nobody went to jail. On Gear-Up, still, nobody's been punished. When we talk about what's been going on in Brookings with the Global Aquaponics scam—a con artist, Tobias Ritesman, held a fundraiser for Marty Jackley. Marty attended his phony groundbreaking for his phony project," Noem said. "People lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Still, nobody's been investigated and nobody’s been prosecuted. That needs to change in our state."
Jackley was on the defensive during the second debate. "Congresswoman, he didn’t hold a fundraiser for me. I was at an event that he was at, and I did go to a ground breaking because that's what important in South Dakota," Jackley says. "When we have businesses expanding I think it’s important that we attend those. You talk about Gear-Up, there hasn’t been a sentencing because these defendants are presumed innocent. But I as attorney general, unlike Washington, have done something about it. I actually formed a grand jury. Indictments have been issued. They're schedule to begin jury trials in July—or, excuse me—June, June 26th and I plan on trying those personally, because that’s what a leader does."[13]
Final debate
In the final debate, Jackley and Noem took tough questions about workforce development, anti-discrimination laws, drugs, uniting Democrats and Republicans in the state to make critical decisions and much more. While they spent a lot of time talking about their plans for the state, they also spent a lot of time attacking each other's records.
A major topic of contention was boards and commissions. The state currently has 134 of them. Noem said she wants to streamline different processes for licensure, eliminating "red tape" but Jackley disagreed. "Every time that a proposal comes forward to create a new 'blue ribbon' task force, a board or a commission, what typically comes with that is another layer of bureaucracy," Noem said. Jackley defended the government bureaucracy. "We need a governor that understands that various different boards, isn't out there criticizing different boards and saying that type of service isn't important," Jackley said. Jackley spoke about putting together a task force to work on government transparency and open records laws. "I'm committed when I become governor to put forth a taskforce ...because we need to take a look at the open records law," he said.
Each candidate closed the debate with a final jab at the other. "It really comes to down to Washington experience versus South Dakota experience," Jackley said. "The congresswoman has been spending considerable time and effort talking about Marty Jackley, but I'm talking about you, South Dakota." "Days ago he stood up and talked about protecting victims while behind the scenes he was actively working to silence one to further his political career," Noem said. "You deserve a governor who will be honest with you, who will tell you the truth and who is willing to be accountable."[14]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kristi Noem |
Marty Jackley |
Lora Hubbel[15] |
Terry LaFleur[15] |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[16] | May 21–23, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 44% | – | – | 11% |
| Leverage Public Strategies[17] | May 4–7, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 38% | 39% | – | – | 24% |
| Clout Research (R)[18] | April 21–23, 2018 | 815 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 37% | – | – | 14% |
| Rockbridge Strategy (R)[19] | April 4, 2018 | 500 | ± 2.9% | 44% | 33% | – | – | 23% |
| Moore Information[20] | February 8, 2018 | 300 | ± 6.0% | 40% | 35% | 5% | 2% | 18% |
| New Age Consultants (R-LaFleur)[21] | November 3, 2017 | 509 | ± 4.4% | 22% | 24% | – | 3% | 51% |
Results
Noem
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Jackley
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kristi Noem | 57,437 | 56.0% | |
| Republican | Marty Jackley | 45,069 | 44.0% | |
| Total votes | 102,506 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Billie Sutton, Minority Leader of the South Dakota Senate[22]
Declined
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Declared
- C.J. Abernathey[28]
- Kurt Evans, former science teacher, Libertarian nominee for U.S. Senator in 2002[28]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Kurt Evans | 10 | 62.5% | |
| Libertarian | C.J. Abernathey | 6 | 37.5% | |
| Total votes | 16 | 100.0% | ||
Constitution Party
Following an internal controversy within the Constitution Party of South Dakota over who was the legal party chair, Dan Lederman—individually and in his capacity as chair of the South Dakota Republican Party—sued Republican secretary of state Shantel Krebs to prevent her from certifying any Constitution Party nominees for the general-election ballot. For somewhat complex reasons, state circuit judge Patricia DeVaney ruled in favor of the Republican Party on August 17.[30][31]
G. Matt Johnson and Lora Hubbel—Constitution Party nominees for the state's at-large U.S. House seat and governor respectively—then sued Krebs in federal court on August 29, seeking ballot access for themselves and four other Constitution Party nominees. For various procedural reasons, federal district judge Roberto Lange ruled against the Constitution Party on October 1.[32][33][34]
Candidates
Declared
- Lora Hubbel, former state representative, Republican candidate for governor in 2014[30]
- Terry LaFleur[30]
Withdrawn
Independents
Candidates
Declined
- Lora Hubbel, former state representative, Republican candidate for governor in 2014[7][30]
- Mike Huether, mayor of Sioux Falls[27][36][37]
General election
Candidates
- Kurt Evans (Libertarian), 2002 nominee for U.S. Senator
- Running mate: Richard Shelatz, vice-chairman of the Libertarian Party of South Dakota[38]
- Kristi Noem (Republican), U.S. representative, former state representative
- Running mate: Larry Rhoden, state representative[39]
- Billie Sutton (Democratic), Minority Leader of the South Dakota Senate
- Running mate: Michelle Lavallee, businesswoman[40]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[41] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[42] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[43] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[44] | Tilt R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[46] | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[47] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[48][a] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[49] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[50] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Endorsements
Kristi Noem (R)
- Federal officials
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States[51]
- Mike Rounds, U.S. senator[52]
- John Thune, U.S. senator[52]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[53]
- State officials
- Dennis Daugaard, governor[52]
- Marty Jackley, attorney general[52]
- Individuals
- Ivanka Trump, daughter of U.S. President Donald Trump[54]
- Organizations
- NRA Political Victory Fund[55][56]
- South Dakota Right to Life[57]
Billie Sutton (D)
- Federal officials
- Larry Pressler, former U.S. senator (Republican)[58][59]
- State officials
- Stan Adelstein, former state senator (Republican)[60]
- Mark DeVries, former state representative (Republican)[60]
- Joyce Hodges, former state representative (Republican)[60]
- Kay Jorgensen, former state representative (Republican)[60]
- Dave Knudson, former Majority Leader of the South Dakota Senate (Republican)[60]
- Dave Volk, former state treasurer (Republican)[60]
- Dick Werner, former state representative (Republican)[60]
- County and local officials
- Rick Knobe, former mayor of Sioux Falls (Republican)[60]
- Jim Schmidt, Lincoln County commissioner (Republican)[60]
- Carol Twedt, former Minnehaha County commissioner (Republican)[60]
- Labor unions
- South Dakota Education Association[61]
- Organizations
- Great Plains Tribal Chairman's Association[62]
- Newspapers
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kristi Noem (R) |
Billie Sutton (D) |
Kurt Evans (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[65] | November 2–4, 2018 | 851 | – | 45% | 51% | 2% | – | – |
| Emerson College[66] | November 1–4, 2018 | 514 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon[67] | October 29–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 44% | 1% | – | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon[68] | October 18–22, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 45% | 1% | – | 9% |
| ALG Research (D-Sutton)[69] | September 20–24, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 3% | – | 10% |
| ALG Research (D-Sutton)[70] | July 19–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | – | – | 13% |
| ALG Research (D-Sutton)[69] | October 4–9, 2017[71] | 500 | ± 4.4% | 53% | 40% | – | – | – |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kristi Noem | 172,912 | 50.97% | −19.50% | |
| Democratic | Billie Sutton | 161,454 | 47.60% | +22.17% | |
| Libertarian | Kurt Evans | 4,848 | 1.43% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 339,214 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County[72] | Kristi Noem
Larry Rhoden Republican |
Billie Sutton
Michelle Lavallee Democratic |
Kurt Evans
Richard Shelatz Libertarian |
Margin | Total
votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | ||
| Aurora | 50.31% | 644 | 47.42% | 607 | 2.27% | 29 | 2.89% | 37 | 1,280 |
| Beadle | 52.10% | 3,182 | 46.37% | 2,832 | 1.54% | 94 | 5.73% | 350 | 6,108 |
| Bennett | 50.18% | 553 | 47.46% | 523 | 2.36% | 26 | 2.72% | 30 | 1,102 |
| Bon Homme | 47.43% | 1,303 | 51.26% | 1,408 | 1.31% | 36 | –3.82% | –105 | 2,747 |
| Brookings | 44.35% | 5,225 | 54.09% | 6,372 | 1.55% | 183 | –9.74% | –1,147 | 11,780 |
| Brown | 47.48% | 6,821 | 51.08% | 7,338 | 1.43% | 206 | –3.60% | –517 | 14,365 |
| Brule | 51.78% | 1,103 | 46.53% | 991 | 1.69% | 36 | 5.26% | 112 | 2,130 |
| Buffalo | 25.18% | 138 | 73.54% | 403 | 1.28% | 7 | –48.36% | –265 | 548 |
| Butte | 65.78% | 2,505 | 32.41% | 1,234 | 1.81% | 69 | 33.38% | 1,271 | 3,808 |
| Campbell | 75.14% | 550 | 23.63% | 173 | 1.23% | 9 | 51.50% | 377 | 732 |
| Charles Mix | 46.76% | 1,661 | 52.17% | 1,853 | 1.07% | 38 | –5.41% | –192 | 3,552 |
| Clark | 52.82% | 879 | 46.15% | 768 | 1.02% | 17 | 6.67% | 111 | 1,664 |
| Clay | 33.42% | 1,552 | 65.44% | 3,039 | 1.14% | 53 | –32.02% | –1,487 | 4,644 |
| Codington | 54.85% | 5,865 | 43.93% | 4,697 | 1.23% | 131 | 10.92% | 1,168 | 10,693 |
| Corson | 38.38% | 426 | 60.09% | 667 | 1.53% | 17 | –21.71% | –241 | 1,110 |
| Custer | 63.26% | 2,789 | 35.09% | 1,547 | 1.66% | 73 | 28.17% | 1,242 | 4,409 |
| Davison | 51.95% | 3,779 | 46.71% | 3,398 | 1.33% | 97 | 5.24% | 381 | 7,274 |
| Day | 43.46% | 1,207 | 55.13% | 1,531 | 1.40% | 39 | –11.67% | –324 | 2,777 |
| Deuel | 52.94% | 1,053 | 44.90% | 893 | 2.16% | 43 | 8.04% | 160 | 1,989 |
| Dewey | 21.35% | 393 | 77.68% | 1,430 | 0.98% | 18 | –56.33% | –1,037 | 1,841 |
| Douglas | 74.87% | 1,120 | 24.26% | 363 | 0.87% | 13 | 50.60% | 757 | 1,496 |
| Edmunds | 59.60% | 1,018 | 39.29% | 671 | 1.11% | 19 | 20.32% | 347 | 1,708 |
| Fall River | 64.51% | 2,059 | 33.36% | 1,065 | 2.13% | 68 | 31.14% | 994 | 3,192 |
| Faulk | 62.70% | 674 | 36.09% | 388 | 1.21% | 13 | 26.60% | 286 | 1,075 |
| Grant | 55.28% | 1,780 | 43.11% | 1,388 | 1.61% | 52 | 12.17% | 392 | 3,220 |
| Gregory | 51.42% | 1,107 | 47.79% | 1,029 | 0.79% | 17 | 3.62% | 78 | 2,153 |
| Haakon | 77.67% | 734 | 20.74% | 196 | 1.59% | 15 | 56.93% | 538 | 945 |
| Hamlin | 64.95% | 1,764 | 33.98% | 923 | 1.07% | 29 | 30.96% | 841 | 2,716 |
| Hand | 57.16% | 950 | 41.10% | 683 | 1.74% | 29 | 16.06% | 267 | 1,662 |
| Hanson | 58.70% | 945 | 40.19% | 647 | 1.12% | 18 | 18.51% | 298 | 1,610 |
| Harding | 73.62% | 505 | 25.36% | 174 | 1.02% | 7 | 48.25% | 331 | 686 |
| Hughes | 46.82% | 3,749 | 51.75% | 4,144 | 1.42% | 114 | –4.93% | –395 | 8,007 |
| Hutchinson | 63.28% | 2,082 | 35.87% | 1,180 | 0.85% | 28 | 27.42% | 902 | 3,290 |
| Hyde | 61.67% | 407 | 37.58% | 248 | 0.76% | 5 | 24.09% | 159 | 660 |
| Jackson | 51.98% | 513 | 46.00% | 454 | 2.03% | 20 | 5.98% | 59 | 987 |
| Jerauld | 51.79% | 478 | 46.91% | 433 | 1.30% | 12 | 4.88% | 45 | 923 |
| Jones | 66.12% | 361 | 31.68% | 173 | 2.20% | 12 | 34.43% | 188 | 546 |
| Kingsbury | 53.08% | 1,303 | 45.25% | 1,111 | 1.67% | 41 | 7.82% | 192 | 2,455 |
| Lake | 47.69% | 2,483 | 51.26% | 2,669 | 1.06% | 55 | –3.57% | –186 | 5,207 |
| Lawrence | 54.91% | 5,984 | 42.90% | 4,675 | 2.19% | 239 | 12.01% | 1,309 | 10,898 |
| Lincoln | 53.27% | 12,894 | 45.89% | 11,109 | 0.84% | 203 | 7.37% | 1,785 | 24,206 |
| Lyman | 49.36% | 691 | 48.71% | 682 | 1.93% | 27 | 0.64% | 9 | 1,400 |
| Marshall | 43.15% | 853 | 55.29% | 1,093 | 1.57% | 31 | –12.14% | –240 | 1,977 |
| McCook | 55.07% | 1,375 | 43.37% | 1,083 | 1.56% | 39 | 11.69% | 292 | 2,497 |
| McPherson | 69.17% | 729 | 29.32% | 309 | 1.52% | 16 | 39.85% | 420 | 1,054 |
| Meade | 62.70% | 6,413 | 34.80% | 3,559 | 2.50% | 256 | 27.90% | 2,854 | 10,228 |
| Mellette | 42.05% | 299 | 55.56% | 395 | 2.39% | 17 | –13.50% | –96 | 711 |
| Miner | 47.33% | 523 | 51.58% | 570 | 1.09% | 12 | –4.25% | –47 | 1,105 |
| Minnehaha | 45.78% | 32,355 | 52.98% | 37,450 | 1.24% | 876 | –7.21% | –5,095 | 70,681 |
| Moody | 46.97% | 1,340 | 51.49% | 1,469 | 1.54% | 44 | –4.52% | –129 | 2,853 |
| Oglala Lakota | 7.05% | 214 | 91.50% | 2,778 | 1.45% | 44 | –84.45% | –2,564 | 3,036 |
| Pennington | 55.06% | 22,944 | 43.17% | 17,988 | 1.77% | 738 | 11.89% | 4,956 | 41,670 |
| Perkins | 70.91% | 953 | 27.38% | 368 | 1.71% | 23 | 43.53% | 585 | 1,344 |
| Potter | 67.91% | 821 | 30.85% | 373 | 1.24% | 15 | 37.06% | 448 | 1,209 |
| Roberts | 43.87% | 1,643 | 55.06% | 2,062 | 1.07% | 40 | –11.19% | –419 | 3,745 |
| Sanborn | 57.68% | 593 | 40.76% | 419 | 1.56% | 16 | 16.93% | 174 | 1,028 |
| Spink | 49.02% | 1,376 | 49.66% | 1,394 | 1.32% | 37 | –0.64% | –18 | 2,807 |
| Stanley | 51.24% | 762 | 47.34% | 704 | 1.41% | 21 | 3.90% | 58 | 1,487 |
| Sully | 61.58% | 500 | 36.45% | 296 | 1.97% | 16 | 25.12% | 204 | 812 |
| Todd | 17.40% | 390 | 81.70% | 1,831 | 0.89% | 20 | –64.30% | –1,441 | 2,241 |
| Tripp | 57.45% | 1,430 | 41.10% | 1,023 | 1.45% | 36 | 16.35% | 407 | 2,489 |
| Turner | 58.75% | 2,272 | 40.24% | 1,556 | 1.01% | 39 | 18.52% | 716 | 3,867 |
| Union | 60.85% | 4,068 | 38.06% | 2,544 | 1.09% | 73 | 22.80% | 1,524 | 6,685 |
| Walworth | 64.98% | 1,468 | 33.29% | 752 | 1.73% | 39 | 31.70% | 716 | 2,259 |
| Yankton | 45.73% | 4,121 | 52.79% | 4,757 | 1.49% | 134 | –7.06% | –636 | 9,012 |
| Ziebach | 29.32% | 241 | 69.59% | 572 | 1.09% | 9 | –40.27% | –331 | 822 |
| Total | 50.97% | 172,912 | 47.60% | 161,454 | 1.43% | 4,848 | 3.38% | 11,458 | 339,214 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Bon Homme (largest city: Springfield)
- Brookings (largest city: Brookings)
- Brown (largest city: Aberdeen)
- Charles Mix (largest city: Lake Andes)
- Corson (largest city: McLaughlin)
- Day (largest city: Webster)
- Dewey (largest city: North Eagle Butte)
- Hughes (largest city: Pierre)
- Lake (largest city: Madison)
- Mellette (largest city: White River)
- Miner (largest city: Howard)
- Minnehaha (largest city: Sioux Falls)
- Moody (largest city: Flandreau)
- Roberts (largest city: Sisseton)
- Spink (largest city: Redfield)
- Yankton (largest city: Yankton)
- Ziebach (largest city: Dupree)
