Spoiler effect rhetoric

A vote for X is a vote for Y is a common argument that has found widespread usage in the United States, where it was especially used in the 2016 and 2024 United States presidential elections in regard to the Green Party of the United States. In other countries, the same argument has been used by both the Labour and Reform parties.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak discouraged voters of choosing Reform UK following conservative losses in Wellingborough and Kingswood to the Labour Party. Sunak stated, “That’s the actual choice at the general election, between me and him, between the Conservatives and Labour."^[1]

In June while campaigning during the 2024 general election, health secretary Victoria Atkins stated in an interview with Channel 4 News that a vote for Reform UK is the same as voting for the Labour Party. When asked by Matt Frei if Nigel Farage (the leader of Reform UK) was dividing the right and spltiting the vote, she stated, "The vote for Reform is a vote for the Labour Party. So if you want to see higher taxes, higher immigration, if you want to see all of the things that we have gathered together and benefited from as we’ve left the European Union... that will be a Labour government courtesy of a vote for Reform."^[2]

On December 27, the socialist party Your Party tweeted "Vote Labour, get Reform" in response to the Labour government's attempt to end trial by jury.^[3]

Ahead of the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election, the Labour and Green parties both made themselves out to be the sole competitor against Reform UK, a far-right political party. The Muslim Vote endorsed the Green Party on January 27.^[4] In February, they tweeted a poll showing the Greens ahead titled "A vote for Labour is a vote for Reform in Gorton and Denton."

On February 24, the Green Party's Facebook page posted a campaign video with the caption, "Vote Labour, get Reform."

In 1992, Representative Alex McMillan disapproved of independent candidate Ross Perot's campaign, stating in the Los Angeles Times "a vote for Perot is a vote for Clinton."^[5]

During the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries, John Kasich's campaign stated that "a vote for Cruz is a vote for Trump" when competing against Ted Cruz and Donald Trump for the nomination.^[6][7] In March, Mike Leavitt wrote in a New York Times op-ed that Republicans should vote for Kasich over Cruz to block Trump from receiving the nomination.^[8] After Donald Trump won the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries, conservative commentator and comedian Dennis Miller stated, "Don't kid yourself. At this point, any vote for anyone that is not Donald Trump is a vote for Hillary Clinton. Also, both Presidential boxes left blank is a vote for Hillary Clinton because, as mindless as Liberals can be, even they don't enter into suicide pacts with that petulant, whiny part of themselves."^[9]

In 2024, the Democratic Party described Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a spoiler. Mainstream media

During the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2025, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated former New York governor Andrew Cuomo. Following his loss, Cuomo congratulated Mamdani, and then launched an independent campaign. During the campaign, Mamdani stated that a vote for Cuomo would be akin to a vote for Trump, due to both of them sharing similar doners. Trump himself stated that a vote for the Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, would be like a vote for Mamdani, saying New Yorkers should vote for Cuomo "whether you personally like [him] or not.”^[10] In an October 2025 interview on WABC 770, Cuomo told John Catsimatidis “I want to say to your Republican listeners: Vote like a New Yorker. Don’t vote like a Republican. A vote for Curtis is a vote for Zohran. Vote like a New Yorker and stop Zohran."^[11] Supporters of Cuomo attempted to convince Sliwa voters to abandon his campaign. In an op-ed in AmNewYork, writers Samantha Ettus and Aliza Licht wrote, "In this election, a vote for Sliwa equates to a vote for Mamdani — a man whose rhetoric and policies defy the American dream..."^[12] Sliwa rejected the comparison.

The Green Party of the United States has been blamed for splitting the vote in multiple elections, starting in 2000, when Vice President Al Gore lost to Republican George W. Bush in a close election. In a speech to 30,000 in Madison, Wisconsin during the campaign trail, Gore stated “If the big oil companies and the chemical manufacturers and the big polluters were able to communicate a message to this state, they would say, ‘Vote for George Bush, or in any case, vote for Ralph Nader.’”^[13]

In 2004, Ralph Nader would again run, this time as an independent. Following his unsuccessful campaign for the nomination, Howard Dean would campaign for the victor of the Democratic primary, John Kerry. While campaigning, Dean would state, "I think Ralph Nader’s candidacy is the single biggest danger to the Kerry candidacy." The American Enterprise Institute described the campaign's mission was to "drive home a point that should be obvious after 2000: A vote for Nader is a vote for Bush."^[14]

[2016]

In the lead up to the 2024 election, President of the Human Rights Campaign, Kelley Robinson, stated that "Any vote that is not for Joe Biden is a vote for Donald Trump. Full stop and period"^[15]

After Biden exited the race, Kamala Harris was chosen as the party's nominee. Opposition to her candidacy led to the Abandon Harris protest movement emerging. In September of 2024 ahead of the election, The Cap Times attributed Hillary Clinton's 2016 loss to the Green Party's Jill Stein and stated, "We should not trick ourselves into believing we have fulfilled our voting obligations by voting for a third party or write-in and being “pure” because we did not compromise. That protest is a vote for Trump."^[16] The Democratic Party released its first ad against a third party on October 11 in swing states with a narrow margin between Trump and Harris. The ad, called "Crucial," stated that a vote for Stein was a vote for Trump.^[17] The ad used a clip of Trump from a campaign rally where he said “I like her very much. You know why? She takes 100 percent from them,” referring to the Democrats.^[18]

• Spoiler effect
• Lesser of two evils principle
• Duopoly