Sub-national opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election

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Polling was conducted separately in the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, England had 533, Scotland had 59, Wales had 40 and Northern Ireland had 18.

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 20152015 general election41.0%31.6%8.2%14.1%4.2%0.9%9.4
6 May 2015Survation[1]91940%32%11%11%5%2%8
5–6 May 2015ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News Archived 18 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine86638%36%9%12%4%1%2
5–6 May 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]2,59335%33%10%13%7%2%2
4–6 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror3,56634%32%10%17%5%2%2
3–6 May 2015ICM/The Guardian Archived 13 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine[3][n 1]1,72737%37%8%13%4%1%Tie
3–6 May 2015ICM/The Guardian[3][n 2]1,33038%37%8%12%3%1%1
4–5 May 2015Opinium Archived 4 August 2016 at the Wayback Machine2,49337%35%8%12%7%1%2
4–5 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror1,27635%34%9%17%4%1%1
3–5 May 2015ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News Archived 22 October 2015 at the Wayback Machine88038%34%8%15%4%1%4
3–5 May 2015BMG/May2015.com, New Statesman88737%34%10%14%4%1%3
1–3 May 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]85835%32%10%13%7%4%3
1–2 May 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday1,85234%35%8%19%4%1%1
30 Apr – 1 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror97836%34%10%17%4%<0.5%2
28–30 Apr 2015ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror Archived 14 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine86835%34%8%14%8%2%1
28–30 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 4 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine1,65837%34%7%14%6%<0.5%3
27–28 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail Archived 18 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine87236% 36%8%12%6%2%Tie
25–27 Apr 2015BMG/May2015.com87739%31%11%15%4%<0.5%8
24–26 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]87037%32%9%12%8%1%5
24–26 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian Archived 1 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine[3]86339%32%7%15%6%<0.5%7
24–25 Apr 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday87936%31%9%20%4%<0.5%5
21–24 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 1 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,66836%33%9%15%7%1%3
22–23 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror1,07236%29%10%20%5%<0.5%7
21–22 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail Archived 30 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine89039%34%8%11%5%3%5
17–19 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86336%33%9%14%5%2%3
17–19 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian[3]86338%35%9%12%5%1%3
16–17 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 1 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,65538%32%9%14%6%1%6
16–17 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror98635%34%8%18%3%1%1
12–15 Apr 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard60035%37%8%11%8%1%2
10–12 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]87034%36%9%14%6%1%2
10–12 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian Archived 21 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine[3]90041%35%7%8%8%1%6
8–9 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 4 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine1,62639%35%8%12%6%1%4
8–9 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror83833%36%9%16%5%1%3
7–8 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail Archived 16 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine71836%35%11%13%4%1%1
2–3 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror85634%33%9%21%3%<0.5%1
2–3 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 1 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,71035%34%7%15%7%1%1
30 Mar 2015Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
28–29 Mar 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail Archived 19 September 2015 at the Wayback Machine86438%32%9%13%6%2%6
27–29 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86540%34%7%11%7%1%6
24–25 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 4 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,69035%34%9%13%7%<0.5%1
24–25 Mar 2015Survation/Daily Mirror85134% 34%8%20%4%<0.5%Tie
20–22 Mar 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail Archived 2 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine86438%35%8%11%7%1%3
20–22 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86036%33%8%14%6%2%3
20–21 Mar 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday86131%35%10%19%3%1%4
18–19 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 4 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,70237%33%7%14%7%1%4
13–15 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86334%29%8%18%9%3%5
13–15 Mar 2015ICM/The Guardian Archived 12 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine[3]91038%37%6%11%5%3%1
10–12 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 2 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,65435% 35%7%15%7%<0.5%Tie
8–11 Mar 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard86334%37%8%14%6%1%3
6–8 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]85936%31%5%18%9%1%5
3–6 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 19 March 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,62636%33%7%15%7%3%3
27 Feb – 1 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86036%32%8%14%7%2%4
24–26 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 22 March 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,67935%36%7%14%6%1%1
23 Feb 2015Survation/Daily Mirror92130%34%10%21%3%2%4
20–23 Feb 2015ComRes/Daily Mail Archived 24 February 2015 at the Wayback Machine86536%32%7%14%9%2%4
20–22 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86732%38%6%13%8%2%6
17–20 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 21 February 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,70436%33%7%16%7%1%3
13–15 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86331% 34%9%18%9%3%Tie
13–15 Feb 2015ICM/The Guardian[3]86038%34%7%10%8%2%4
10–12 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 14 February 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,71335% 35%8%15%5%1%Tie
8–10 Feb 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard84438%37%7%10%8%0%1
6–8 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86036%31%9%16%7%1%5
3–6 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer Archived 7 February 2015 at the Wayback Machine1,94733%35%7%15%8%2%2
30 Jan – 1 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]85734%30%8%17%10%1%4
25 Jan 2015Survation/Daily Mirror89034%30%7%25%4%<0.5%4
23–25 Jan 2015ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link]85233%29%9%20%8%1%4
22–25 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]85933%34%5%17%9%2%1
16–19 Jan 2015ICM/The Guardian Archived 3 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine[3]86332%35%8%14%10%1%3
16–18 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]87131%27%9%17%12%4%4
11–13 Jan 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard85435% 35%8%12%8%2%Tie
9–11 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]85837%29%7%17%8%2%8
12–16 Dec 2014ICM/The Guardian[3]86131%33%11%17%5%3%2
13–15 Dec 2014Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard84036%31%9%14%10%0%5
12–14 Dec 2014ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link]89729%34%12%17%6%2%5
5–7 Dec 2014Lord Ashcroft[2]86031% 31%7%23%6%2%Tie
6 May 20102010 general election39.6%28.1%24.2%3.5%1.0%3.6%11.5

Scotland

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab SNP LD Con UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election 24.3% 50.0% 7.5% 14.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 25.7
4–6 May 2015 YouGov/The Sun, The Times 1,351 28% 48% 7% 14% 1% 1% 1% 20
3–6 May 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,660 26% 46% 7% 16% 2% 3% 1% 20
1–6 May 2015 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,013 26% 48% 5% 14% 3% 2% 2% 22
29 Apr – 1 May 2015 YouGov/Sunday Times 1,162 26% 49% 7% 15% 2% 1% 0% 23
22–27 Apr 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV News 1,071 20% 54% 5% 17% 1% 2% 1% 34
22–27 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,015 26% 51% 5% 14% 2% 1% <0.5% 25
20–23 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,044 27% 48% 4% 16% 3% 2% <0.5% 21
16–20 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,111 25% 49% 5% 17% 3% 1% 0% 24
1–19 Apr 2015 TNS 1,003 22% 54% 6% 13% 2% 2% 0% 32
8–9 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,056 25% 49% 4% 18% 2% 1% 1% 24
18 Mar – 8 Apr 2015 TNS 978 24% 52% 6% 13% <0.5% 3% 0% 28
30 Mar – 2 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,006 29% 45% 4% 14% 4% 2% <0.5% 16
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/Scottish Sun 1,864 29% 46% 3% 16% 2% 2% <0.5% 17
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of the UK Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
13–19 Mar 2015 ICM/The Guardian 1,002 27% 43% 6% 14% 7% 3% 1% 16
12–17 Mar 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,027 26% 47% 4% 16% 4% 2% 1% 21
10–12 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,049 27% 46% 4% 18% 2% 3% 1% 19
6–10 Mar 2015 Survation/Unison Scotland 1,005 28% 47% 4% 15% 3% 2% 1% 19
30 Jan – 22 Feb 2015 TNS 1,001 30% 46% 3% 14% 3% 4% 1% 16
12–17 Feb 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,011 28% 45% 5% 15% 3% 3% 1% 17
29 Jan – 2 Feb 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,001 27% 48% 4% 15% 4% 3% 1% 21
14 Jan – 2 Feb 2015 TNS[permanent dead link] 1,006 31% 41% 4% 16% 2% 6% 1% 10
12–19 Jan 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV News 774 24% 52% 4% 12% 1% 4% 3% 28
12–16 Jan 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,006 26% 46% 7% 14% 4% 3% 1% 20
9–14 Jan 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,007 31% 41% 3% 14% 7% 3% 10
16–18 Dec 2014 ICM/The Guardian 1,004 26% 43% 6% 13% 7% 4% 1% 17
15–18 Dec 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 24% 48% 5% 16% 4% 1% 1% 24
13 Dec 2014Jim Murphy is elected Leader of the Scottish Labour Party
9–11 Dec 2014 YouGov/The Sun 1,081 27% 47% 3% 16% 3% 3% 1% 20
14–20 Nov 2014Nicola Sturgeon becomes leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and subsequently First Minister of Scotland
6–13 Nov 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 24% 46% 6% 17% 5% 2% 1% 22
30 Oct – 4 Nov 2014 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,000 28% 45% 3% 15% 7% 1% 1% 17
27–30 Oct 2014 YouGov/The Times 1,078 27% 43% 4% 15% 6% 4% 1% 16
22–29 Oct 2014 Ipsos Mori/STV 769 23% 52% 6% 10% 2% 6% 1% 29
29 Sep – 1 Oct 2014 Panelbase/SNP 1,049 32% 34% 5% 18% 6% 5% 2
18 Sep 2014 Scottish independence referendum ("No" wins)
4–8 Jul 2014 Survation/Daily Record 786 33% 38% 5% 17% 5% 2% <1% 5
25–26 Jun 2014 YouGov Unknown 39% 31% 5% 16% 10% 8
6–10 Jun 2014 Survation/Daily Record 773 32% 40% 5% 15% 6% 1% 1% 8
22 May 2014European Parliament election
11–15 Apr 2014 Survation/Sunday Post 808 36% 36% 6% 16% 3% 1% 1% Tie
4–7 Apr 2014 Survation/Daily Record 803 34% 40% 6% 15% 3% 1% 1% 6
6–7 Mar 2014 Survation/Daily Record 850 36% 38% 5% 15% 3% 1% 1% 2
17–18 Feb 2014 Survation/Daily Mail 805 33% 38% 6% 17% 4% 2% 1% 5
29–31 Jan 2014 Survation/Daily Mail 776 39% 30% 6% 16% 4% 2% 1% 9
4–8 Oct 2013 Lord Ashcroft 737 40% 31% 6% 18% 2% 2% 1% 9
22 Feb – 9 May 2013 Lord Ashcroft 6,659 45% 23% 8% 16% 5% 2% <1% 22
17–28 Oct 2012 Lord Ashcroft 703 33% 39% 6% 17% 7% 6
17–20 Jul 2012 YouGov/Fabian Society 1,029 43% 29% 8% 16% 3% 3% 1% 14
18–21 May 2012 YouGov Unknown 40% 35% 5% 14% 6% 5
3 May 2012 Scottish local elections
22–24 Feb 2012 YouGov 1,053 42% 30% 7% 17% 4% 12
5 May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
26–29 Apr 2011 YouGov/Scotsman 1,108 42% 28% 7% 17% 1% 2% 2% 14
19–21 Apr 2011 YouGov Unknown 43% 30% 7% 15% 5% 13
13–15 Apr 2011 YouGov Unknown 43% 28% 9% 16% 5% 15
25–28 Mar 2011 YouGov Unknown 46% 26% 6% 17% 5% 20
18–20 Oct 2010 YouGov Unknown 44% 26% 7% 18% 5% 18
31 Aug – 3 Sep 2010 YouGov Unknown 39% 29% 11% 16% 5% 10
6 May 2010 2010 general election 42.0% 19.9% 18.9% 16.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 22.1


Wales

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD PC UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election 36.9% 27.2% 6.5% 12.1% 13.6% 2.6% 1.0% 9.7
4–6 May 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,202 39% 25% 8% 13% 12% 2% 2% 14
28–30 Apr 2015 YouGov/Plaid Cymru 1,146 39% 26% 6% 13% 12% 3% 2% 13
13–15 Apr 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales, Cardiff University 1,143 40% 26% 6% 12% 13% 4% <0.5% 14
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Sun 1,035 40% 27% 6% 9% 13% 5% 1% 13
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of the UK Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
24–27 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,189 40% 25% 5% 11% 14% 5% 1% 15
5–9 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 39% 25% 5% 10% 14% 6% 1% 14
19–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 37% 23% 6% 10% 16% 8% 1% 14
8–13 Jan 2015 ICM/BBC Wales 1,004 38% 21% 7% 12% 13% 6% 2% 17
2–3 Dec 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 36% 23% 5% 11% 18% 5% 2% 13
19–22 Sep 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,006 39% 23% 5% 13% 16% 2% 1% 16
8–11 Sep 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 38% 23% 6% 11% 17% 5% 1% 15
26 Jun – 1 Jul 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 41% 25% 5% 11% 14% 3% 2% 16
22 May 2014European Parliament election
12–14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 43% 22% 7% 11% 13% 3% 2% 21
11–22 Apr 2014 YouGov/Cardiff University 1,027 45% 24% 7% 11% 10% 1% 2% 21
21-24 Feb 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,000 45% 24% 6% 15% 8% 2% 1% 21
10–12 Feb 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 47% 22% 7% 11% 9% 2% 2% 25
2–4 Dec 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 46% 21% 8% 12% 10% 2% 2% 25
18–22 Jul 2013 YouGov 1,012 48% 23% 8% 9% 8% 2% 2% 25
18–20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 51% 22% 9% 10% 7% 1% 1% 29
2–4 Jul 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,000 54% 23% 4% 10% 9% 31
3 May 2012Welsh local elections
12–16 Apr 2012 YouGov 1,039 50% 23% 7% 12% 9% 27
30 Jan – 1 Feb 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,008 50% 25% 6% 11% 5% 3% 2% 25
5 May 2011Welsh assembly election
2–4 May 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,010 50% 24% 8% 10% 4% 2% 2% 25
6 May 2010 2010 general election 36.2% 26.1% 20.1% 11.3% 2.4% 0.4% 3.4% 10


Northern Ireland

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample
size
SF DUP SDLP UUP All Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election 24.5% 25.7% 13.9% 16.0% 8.6% 10.3% 1.2
11–24 Sep 2014 LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph 1,089 24% 26% 15% 12% 6% 17% 2
30 Sep – 28 Dec 2013 Northern Ireland Life & Times[4] 1,280 20% 22% 23% 16% 14% 5% 1
7 Mar 2013 Mid Ulster by-election
1 Oct 2012 – 10 Jan 2013 Northern Ireland Life & Times[5] 1,204 19% 27% 21% 16% 13% 3% 6
9 Jun 2011 Belfast West by-election
5 May 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly election
1 Oct – 18 Dec 2010 Northern Ireland Life & Times[5] 1,205 15% 24% 23% 21% 13% 4% 1
6 May 2010 2010 general election 25.5% 25.0% 16.5% 15.2% 6.3% 11.5% 0.5


London

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 20152015 general election [6]43.7%34.9%7.7%8.1%4.9%0.7%8.8
29 Apr – 1 May 2015YouGov/Evening Standard1,31346%33%9%8%3%1%13
20–22 Apr 2015YouGov/Evening Standard1,03244%32%8%10%5%1%12
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
26–30 Mar 2015YouGov/Evening Standard1,06445%34%8%8%4%1%11
20–26 Mar 2015ICM/The Guardian1,00342%32%7%9%8%1%10
20–24 Mar 2015ComRes/ITV News1,00446%32%8%9%4%1%14
27 Feb – 2 Mar 2015YouGov/Evening Standard1,01144%32%7%10%5%<0.5%12
19–23 Feb 2015YouGov/The Times1,09642%34%8%9%6%<0.5%8
19–21 Jan 2015YouGov/Evening Standard1,03442%32%7%10%8%<0.5%10
15–18 Dec 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,38541%33%9%9%6%<0.5%8
8–13 Aug 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,20041%34%10%9%3%<0.5%7
21–24 Jul 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,35045%35%8%8%4%<0.5%10
17–19 Jun 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,11542%35%8%10%4%<0.5%7
6–8 May 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,42244%31%11%10%2%<0.5%13
29 Apr 2014Survation77442%26%12%15%2%<0.5%16
7–9 Apr 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,20942%34%9%11%3%<0.5%8
8–10 Oct 2013YouGov/Evening Standard1,23145%32%10%9%2%2%13
20–25 Jun 2013YouGov/Evening Standard1,26948%29%9%10%2%3%19
24–30 Apr 2012Opinium73643%33%10%6%7%2%10
27–29 Apr 2012YouGov/Evening Standard1,23147%31%9%8%3%2%16
20–22 Apr 2012YouGov/Evening Standard1,13850%31%8%6%3%2%19
13–15 Apr 2012YouGov/Evening Standard1,06050%33%7%6%2%2%17
12–15 Mar 2012YouGov/Evening Standard1,22646%34%9%5%3%2%12
7–10 Feb 2012YouGov/Evening Standard1,10647%35%9%5%2%2%12
10–16 Jan 2012YouGov1,34944%34%8%5%3%2%10
7–9 Jun 2011YouGov1,21551%32%8%3%3%2%19
5–8 Oct 2010YouGov1,27142%38%13%2%3%2%4
6 May 20102010 general election36.6%34.5%22.1%1.7%1.6%3.5%2.1

See also

Notes

References

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