Turkey illusion
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Turkey illusion is a cognitive bias describing the surprise resulting from a break in a trend, if one does not know the causes or the framework conditions for this trend.[1] The concept was first introduced by Bertrand Russell[2] to illustrate a problem with inductive reasoning.
Relevant disciplines for uncovering such biases include psychology and behavioral economics.[1]
In a variation from Russell's original, a turkey designated for Thanksgiving is fed and cared for every day until it is slaughtered.[3][4] With each feeding, its certainty or confidence that nothing will happen to it increases, based on past experience. From the turkey's point of view, the certainty that it will be fed and cared for again the next day is greatest on the night before it dies, of all days. Nevertheless, it is slaughtered that day, by the very person who cared for it.
The story appears in Bertrand Russell's 1912 The Problems of Philosophy as relating to a chicken:
The man who has fed the chicken every day throughout its life at last wrings its neck instead, showing that more refined views as to the uniformity of nature would have been useful to the chicken.
