2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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November 4, 2014
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Cotton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Pryor: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election. After facing only Green Party opposition in 2008, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor sought re-election to a third term in 2014. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 56% to 39%.[1] The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed.[2]
This is the last time a Senator from Arkansas lost re-election. Since Cotton took office in 2015, Republicans have held both of Arkansas' Senate seats and the state's entire congressional delegation, both of which had not happened since 1877. Pryor drew many comparisons to Blanche Lincoln, also a Democratic senator from Arkansas who was ultimately unseated in 2010, with Pryor receiving a similar fate.
Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and remained so until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.
Background
Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[3] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were re-elected.[4]
Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[5] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[6]
The election was originally thought to be extremely close, which was backed up by polling. Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points.[7] Cotton's victory, along with other Republican victories in other statewide elections, solidified the state's shift towards the GOP.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mark Pryor, incumbent U.S. Senator[8]
Declined
- Bobby Tullis, former state representative[9]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Pryor (incumbent) | Unopposed | |||
| Total votes | N/a | 100.0 | |||
Republican primary
Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.
Candidates
Nominee
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013–2015)[10]
Declined
- Rick Crawford, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 1st congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election)[11]
- Mark Darr, Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas (2011–2014)[12]
- Timothy Griffin, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (2011–2015) (running for Lieutenant Governor)[13]
- Steve Womack, U.S. Representative Arkansas's 3rd congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election)[14]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Cotton | Unopposed | |||
| Total votes | N/a | 100.0 | |||
Third parties
Candidates
Declared
- Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive[15]
- Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010[15]
General election
Endorsements
- Club for Growth[16]
- Tim Griffin, U.S. Representative[14]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator[17]
- Allen West, former U.S. Representative[18]
- Steve Womack, U.S. Representative[14]
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania and candidate for President of the United States in 2012[19]
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 Republican presidential candidate[20]
Fundraising
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Pryor (D) | $10,428,246 | $12,034,784 | $364,653 |
| Tom Cotton (R) | $7,557,443 | $6,411,763 | $1,885,435 |
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 13, 2014
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[22] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Likely R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[24] | Lean R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[25] | Lean R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Pryor (D) |
Tom Cotton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basswood Research[26] | March 16–17, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 35% | 43% | — | 22% |
| Basswood Research[27] | June 22–23, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 40% | — | 19% |
| Clark Research[28] | July 23–27, 2013 | 729 | ± 4% | 43% | 35% | — | 21% |
| On Message Inc.[29] | July 29–30, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 44% | — | 14% |
| Harper Polling[30] | August 4–5, 2013 | 587 | ± 4.04% | 41% | 43% | — | 16% |
| Global Strategy Group[31] | August 26–29, 2013 | 501 | ± ?% | 47% | 40% | — | 13% |
| Harper Polling[32] | September 24–26, 2013 | 622 | ± 3.93% | 45% | 42% | — | 13% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College[33] | October 8, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | 42% | 41% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[34] | October 14–15, 2013 | 955 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 41% | — | 15% |
| University of Arkansas[35] | October 10–17, 2013 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 34% | 32% | — | 34% |
| Impact Management Group[36] | October 24, 2013 | 911 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 42% | — | 18% |
| Polling Company/WomanTrend[37] | December 6–7, 2013 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 48% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[38] | December 13–15, 2013 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | — | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | February 4–5, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 45% | 5% | 10% |
| Harper Polling[40] | January 26–27, 2014 | 533 | ± 4.24% | 36% | 42% | — | 22% |
| Impact Management Group[41] | February 10, 2014 | 1,202 | ± 2.83% | 42% | 46% | — | 13% |
| Hickman Analytics[42] | February 17–20, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 39% | 41% | 8% | 12% |
| 42% | 51% | — | 8% | ||||
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[43] | March 27 – April 2, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College[44] | April 3–4, 2014 | 1,068 | ± 3% | 46% | 43% | 4%[45] | 8% |
| Opinion Research Associates[46] | April 1–8, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 48% | 38% | — | 8% |
| Harper Polling[47] | April 9–10, 2014 | 522 | ± 4.29% | 39% | 39% | — | 22% |
| New York Times/Kaiser Family[48] | April 8–15, 2014 | 857 | ± 4% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 15% |
| Magellan Strategies[49] | April 14–15, 2014 | 857 | ± 3.35% | 43% | 46% | 4% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | April 25–27, 2014 | 840 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 42% | — | 16% |
| NBC News/Marist[51] | April 30 – May 4, 2014 | 876 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | May 27–28, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | 4% | 6% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[52] | May 27–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.39% | 41% | 46% | — | 13% |
| Fabrizio Lee[53] | June 3–5, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 43% | 51% | — | 5% |
| Magellan Strategies[54] | June 4–5, 2014 | 755 | ± 3.57% | 45% | 49% | 2% | 4% |
| Impact Management Group[55] | June 29, 2014 | 1290 | ± 2.72% | 43% | 47% | — | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing[56] | July 7–8, 2014 | 987 | ± 3% | 44% | 51% | 5%[57] | — |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[58] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,628 | ± 2.9% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 5% |
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[59] | July 20–24, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College[60] | July 22–25, 2014 | 1,780 | ± 2.3% | 42% | 44% | 7%[61] | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | August 1–3, 2014 | 1,066 | ± 3% | 39% | 41% | 7%[61] | 14% |
| 41% | 43% | — | 16% | ||||
| Opinion Research Associates[63] | August 6–14, 2014 | 414 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 41% | 4%[45] | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | August 25–26, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 44% | 43% | 6% | 6% |
| ccAdvertising[64] | August 31 – September 1, 2014 | 1,735 | ± ? | 29% | 37% | — | 34% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[65] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,572 | ± 3% | 39% | 43% | 2% | 16% |
| CNN/ORC International[66] | August 28 – September 2, 2014 | 523 LV | ± 4.5% | 47% | 49% | — | 4% |
| 839 RV | ± 3.5% | 47% | 38% | — | 14% | ||
| Hickman Analytics[67] | August 26 – September 3, 2014 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
| NBC News/Marist[68] | September 2–4, 2014 | 639 LV | ± 3.9% | 40% | 45% | 6%[69] | 9% |
| 1,068 RV | ± 3% | 41% | 41% | 8%[70] | 11% | ||
| Answers Unlimited[71] | September 7–9, 2014 | 600 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | 4%[45] | 8% |
| Gravis Marketing[72] | September 8–11, 2014 | 902 | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | 2%[57] | 8% |
| Hickman Analytics[73] | September 13–18, 2014 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[74] | September 18–21, 2014 | 1,453 | ± 2.6% | 38% | 43% | 6%[75] | 13% |
| 39% | 45% | — | 15% | ||||
| Suffolk[76] | September 20–23, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 43% | 5%[75] | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | September 24–25, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | 47% | 5% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[77] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,991 | ± 2% | 41% | 45% | 1% | 13% |
| Opinion Research Associates[78] | October 1–5, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 45% | 42% | 5% | 9% |
| Fox News[79] | October 4–7, 2014 | 707 | ± 3.5% | 39% | 46% | 5%[80] | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | October 13–15, 2014 | 940 | ± 3% | 44% | 47% | 4% | 5% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix[81] | October 15–16, 2014 | 2,075 | ± 2.2% | 40.5% | 49% | 5%[82] | 6% |
| NBC News/Marist[83] | October 19–23, 2014 | 621 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 6%[69] | 7% |
| 971 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 42% | 6%[69] | 9% | ||
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[77] | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,567 | ± 4% | 42% | 47% | 1% | 10% |
| Opinion Research Associates[84] | October 25–26, 2014 | 401 | ± 5% | 45% | 44% | 2%[85] | 10% |
| Issues & Answers Network[86] | October 21–27, 2014 | 568 | ± 4.1% | 36% | 49% | — | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | October 27–29, 2014 | 967 | ± 3% | 44% | 51% | 4% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling[87] | October 30 – November 1, 2014 | 1,092 | ± 3% | 41% | 49% | 4%[88] | 5% |
| 45% | 51% | — | 4% | ||||
| Opinion Research Associates[89] | October 30 – November 1, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 45% | 43% | 4%[88] | 8% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Cotton | 478,819 | 56.50% | N/A | |
| Democratic | Mark Pryor (incumbent) | 334,174 | 39.43% | −40.10% | |
| Libertarian | Nathan LaFrance | 17,210 | 2.03% | N/A | |
| Green | Mark Swaney | 16,797 | 1.98% | −18.49% | |
| Write-in | 505 | 0.06% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 847,505 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Craighead (Largest city: Jonesboro)
- Cross (Largest city: Wynne)
- Greene (Largest city: Paragould)
- Hot Spring (Largest city: Malvern)
- Izard (Largest city: Horseshoe Bend)
- Arkansas (Largest city: Stuttgart)
- Calhoun (Largest city: Hampton)
- Cleburne (Largest city: Heber Springs)
- Cleveland (Largest city: Rison)
- Columbia (Largest city: Magnolia)
- Conway (Largest city: Morrilton)
- Faulkner (Largest city: Conway)
- Franklin (Largest city: Ozark)
- Fulton (Largest city: Salem)
- Garland (Largest city: Hot Springs)
- Grant (Largest city: Sheridan)
- Independence (Largest city: Batesville)
- Johnson (Largest city: Clarksville)
- Logan (Largest city: Booneville)
- Lonoke (Largest city: Cabot)
- Madison (Largest city: Huntsville)
- Marion (Largest city: Bull Shoals)
- Miller (Largest city: Texarkana)
- Montgomery (Largest city: Mount Ida)
- Perry (Largest city: Perryville)
- Pike (Largest city: Glenwood)
- Pope (Largest city: Russellville)
- Prairie (Largest city: Des Arc)
- Saline (Largest city: Benton)
- Scott (Largest city: Waldron)
- Sevier (Largest city: De Queen)
- Sharp (Largest city: Cherokee Village)
- Stone (Largest city: Mountain View)
- Union (Largest city: El Dorado)
- Van Buren (Largest city: Clinton)
- Washington (Largest city: Fayetteville)
- White (Largest city: Searcy)
- Yell (Largest city: Dardanelle)
- Baxter (Largest city: Mountain Home)
- Boone (Largest city: Harrison)
- Carroll (Largest city: Berryville)
- Newton (Largest city: Jasper)
- Polk (Largest city: Mena)
- Benton (Largest city: Rogers)
- Crawford (Largest city: Van Buren)
- Searcy (Largest city: Marshall)
- Sebastian (Largest city: Fort Smith)
- Clay (largest city: Piggott)
- Hempstead (largest city: Hope)
- Lawrence (largest city: Walnut Ridge)
- Poinsett (largest city: Harrisburg)
- Randolph (largest city: Pocahontas)
- Drew (Largest city: Monticello)
- Ashley (Largest city: Crossett)
- Lafayette (Largest city: Stamps)
- Nevada (Largest city: Prescott)
- Dallas (Largest city: Fordyce)
- Bradley (largest city: Warren)
- Jackson (largest city: Newport)
- Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
- Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
- Howard (Largest city: Nashville)
By congressional district
Cotton won all four congressional districts.[91]
| District | Pryor | Cotton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 40% | 56% | Rick Crawford |
| 2nd | 45% | 51% | French Hill |
| 3rd | 32% | 63% | Steve Womack |
| 4th | 40% | 56% | Bruce Westerman |
