2020 United States Senate election in Colorado

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An election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2020 United States Senate election in Colorado

 2014
November 3, 2020
2026 
 
Nominee John Hickenlooper Cory Gardner
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,731,114 1,429,492
Percentage 53.50% 44.18%

Hickenlooper:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gardner:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No data

U.S. senator before election

Cory Gardner
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

Close

Under Colorado law, the filing deadline for U.S. Senate candidates was March 17, 2020, the third Tuesday in March of the election year; the primary election occurred on June 30.[1][2] Incumbent Senator Cory Gardner lost re-election to former Governor John Hickenlooper.[3] Gardner was unopposed in the Republican primary, and Hickenlooper defeated former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary.[4]

This race was one of two Republican-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump lost in 2016; the other was in Maine. Many pollsters and pundits[5][6] considered Gardner to be the most vulnerable Republican senator facing re-election in 2020 due to his narrow victory in 2014, the state's leftward shift, and Trump's unpopularity in the state.

As predicted, Hickenlooper easily defeated Gardner by a 9.3-point margin. However, Gardner did manage to outperform Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by roughly four points.[7] This became the first election Gardner had lost in his political career as well as being the widest margin of loss for a Coloradan U.S. Senator since 1978.[8] This was the third consecutive election in which this seat flipped parties. At the age of 68, Hickenlooper is the oldest first term senator from Colorado.

Background

Gardner was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, narrowly defeating incumbent Democratic senator Mark Udall in a very successful election year for Republicans. Gardner was widely considered vulnerable in 2020 due to Colorado's recent Democratic trend and his support for Trump.[9] Polling showed that more voters had a negative view of Gardner compared to a positive one.[10] Gardner also faced a four-year grassroots campaign across the state by progressive political activists to hold him accountable for his votes, featured a cardboard cutout dubbed "Cardboard Cory".[11] The seat was expected to be highly competitive and the most likely Republican-held seat to flip Democratic. The Democratic nominee, former governor John Hickenlooper, had a consistent double-digit lead over Gardner in the polls.[12][13]

Various minor scandals in the days leading up to the June 30 Democratic primary sparked speculation that Romanoff might win, but Hickenlooper had an advantage in name recognition, and harsh negative attacks by Romanoff reportedly led many state Democrats and voters to sour on him.[14]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

  • Margot Dupre, estate agent[16][17]
  • Gail Prentice, veteran and business owner[18][19]

Endorsements

Cory Gardner (R)

U.S. presidents

U.S. executive branch officials

Organizations

Individuals

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Cory Gardner (incumbent) 554,806 100.00%
Total votes 554,806 100.00%
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

John Hickenlooper

U.S. presidents

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

Local officials

Newspapers

Organizations

Andrew Romanoff

State officials

Individuals

Newspapers

Organizations

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Jena
Griswold
John
Hickenlooper
Mike
Johnston
Andrew
Romanoff
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA[97] June 19–24, 2020 575 (LV) ± 6.0% 58% 28% 15%[d]
Myers Research and Strategic Services[98][A] June 16–17, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 39%
Unspecified polling firm[99][A] October 2019 – (LV)[e] 68% 19%
September 3, 2019 Johnston withdraws from the race
Public Policy Polling (D)[100][B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 60%[f] 3% 9% 27%[g]
[h] 66% 17% 17%[i]
August 21, 2019 Hickenlooper announces his candidacy
August 9, 2019 Griswold announces that she will not run
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group[101] July 25–28, 2019 600 (LV) 6% 61% 10% 8% 15%[d]
Public Policy Polling (D)[102] July 12–14, 2019 561 (LV) 4% 44% 3% 12% 38%[j]
Close
More information Hypothetical polling, Poll source ...
Close

Caucus

On March 7, 2020, the Colorado Democratic Party held a non-binding Senate primary preference poll at its caucus sites. Attendees could choose delegates to county and then state conventions. If a candidate received at least 30% of the delegates at the state convention they would be placed on the ballot. Some candidates were not listed because they instead chose to attempt to collect signatures to reach the ballot. Candidates needed 1,500 signatures from each congressional district. Hickenlooper and Underwood chose to do both. Romanoff collected the needed signatures as of March 8, 2020.[103][104]

Caucus results

Romanoff was the only candidate to get more than 30% in the initial precinct caucuses. Hickenlooper withdrew from the assembly process soon afterward, choosing to qualify for the ballot exclusively by petition. Ballot access for assembly candidates will be decided at the state assembly. Caucus winners do not always receive the party's nomination; Romanoff won them in the 2010 Democratic primary for Colorado's Senate race, but Michael Bennet won the party's nomination that year.[105]

The aggregate results of the various precinct caucuses on March 7, 2020, were:[106]

More information Candidate, Total raw votes ...
Candidate Total raw votes Percentage of vote won (%)
Andrew Romanoff 8,629 54.98
John Hickenlooper 4,761 30.34
Trish Zornio 976 6.21
Stephany Rose Spaulding 771 4.91
Uncommitted 520 3.31
Erik Underwood 35 0.22
Close

Results

Results by county:
Hickenlooper
  •   50–60%
      60–70%
      70–80%
Romanoff
  •   50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[107]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Hickenlooper 585,826 58.65%
Democratic Andrew Romanoff 412,955 41.35%
Total votes 998,781 100.00%
Close

Other candidates

Libertarian primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Libertarian primary results[110]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Raymon Doane 3,477 62.41%
Libertarian Gaylon Kent 2,094 37.59%
Total votes 5,571 100.00%
Close

Unity Party

Nominee

  • Stephan "Chairman Seku" Evans, former candidate for mayor of Denver[111]

Eliminated at Unity Party convention

Withdrawn

Write-in candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Debate

More information Host, Date & time ...
Host Date & time Link(s) Participants
John

Hickenlooper

Cory Gardner
Colorado State University October 13, 2020
6:00pm MDT
[120] Present Present
Close

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[121] Lean D (flip) October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[122] Lean D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[123] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[124] Likely D (flip) October 30, 2020
Politico[125] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
RCP[126] Lean D (flip) October 23, 2020
DDHQ[127] Likely D (flip) November 3, 2020
538[128] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2020
Economist[129] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2020
Close

Post-primary endorsements

Polling

Graphical Summary

Poll results

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Cory
Gardner (R)
John
Hickenlooper (D)
Other /
Undecided
Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Colorado Sun[143] October 29 – November 1, 2020 502 (LV)[k] ± 4.4% 42% 53%
Data for Progress[144] October 27 – November 1, 2020 709 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 54% 2%[l]
Swayable[145] October 23 – November 1, 2020 443 (LV) ± 6% 43% 57%
Morning Consult[146] October 22–31, 2020 727 (LV) ± 4% 44% 52%
Morning Consult[146] October 11–20, 2020 788 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 50%
RBI Strategies & Research[147] October 12–16, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 39% 53% 7%[m]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[148] October 9–15, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 51% 7%[n]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[149] October 11–14, 2020 1,013 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 53% 3%[o]
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson[150] October 8–13, 2020 519 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 51% 7%[p]
Morning Consult[146] October 2–11, 2020 837 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 50%
YouGov/University of Colorado[151] October 5–9, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.64% 40% 48% 12%[q]
SurveyUSA[152] October 1–6, 2020 1,021 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 48% 14%[r]
Morning Consult[153] September 11–20, 2020 613 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 42%[s] 49%
Morning Consult[154] September 8–17, 2020 599 (LV)[k] ± (2% – 4%) 44% 46%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[155][C] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 51% 4%[t]
Global Strategy Group (D)[156][D] August 28 – September 1, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 52% 5%
Morning Consult[157] August 21–30, 2020 638 (LV) ± 4.0% 39%[s] 48% 13%
Morning Consult[157] August 16–25, 2020 ≈600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 48%
Public Policy Polling (D)[158][E] August 18–19, 2020 731 (V) ± 3.2% 42% 51% 7%[u]
Morning Consult[157] August 6–15, 2020 ≈600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 49%
Morning Consult[157] July 27 – August 5, 2020 ≈600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 50%
Morning Consult[159] July 17–26, 2020 616 (LV) ± 4.0% 42%[v] 48% 11%[w]
Morning Consult[157] July 13–22, 2020 ≈600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 50%
Public Policy Polling[160][F] June 29–30, 2020 840 (V) ± 3.4% 40% 51% 9%[x]
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson[161] May 1–3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 54% 10%[y]
Montana State University Bozeman[162] April 10–19, 2020 379 (LV) ± 4.4% 31% 48% 21%[z]
Keating Research[163] October 10–14, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 53% 5%
Emerson College[164] August 16–19, 2019 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 53% 8%
Global Strategy Group (D)[165][G] August 13–14, 2019 617 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 49% 13%
Public Policy Polling[166][B] August 8–11, 2019 739 (V) ± 3.6% 38% 51% 12%
Close
Hypothetical polling

with generic Democrat

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Cory
Gardner (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[165][G] August 13–14, 2019 617 (LV) ± 3.9% 38% 48% 14%
Global Strategy Group[167] January 31 – February 4, 2019 818 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 51% 9%
DFM Research[168] January 2–5, 2019 550 (A) ± 4.2% 38% 46% 16%
Change Research (D)[169][H] December 2–4, 2018 540 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 47%
Public Policy Polling (D)[170][I] August 2–3, 2017 628 (V) ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%
Public Policy Polling (D)[171][J] June 30 – July 1, 2017 870 (V) ± 3.6% 39% 53% 8%
Close

on whether Cory Gardner deserves to be re-elected

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[172] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 50% 19%[aa]
Close

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
YouGov/University of Colorado[151] October 5–9, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.64% 39% 47% 14%[ab]
Climate Nexus[173] February 15–19, 2020 485 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 48% 12%[ac]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[172] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% 14%[ad]
Close

with Mike Johnston

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Cory
Gardner (R)
Mike
Johnston (D)
Other Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[165][G] August 13–14, 2019 617 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 50% 11%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[172] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 2%[ae] 14%
Close

Results

The election was not particularly close, with Hickenlooper winning by 9.32%. Hickenlooper's win was expected, as Colorado has moved more toward being a blue state. Key to Hickenlooper's victory was Denver County and its surrounding suburban counties, Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, and Jefferson, the latter of which had been pivotal to Gardner's victory in 2014.[citation needed] Gardner did well in the typically red El Paso County, home of Colorado Springs. Gardner also did well in many rural areas of the state. However, Hickenlooper's strong performance in heavily populated counties proved too much for Gardner to overcome. Hickenlooper was also likely helped by Joe Biden, who won the state by 13.5%.

Hickenlooper is the first senator from Colorado who was also the governor of Colorado since Senator Edwin Johnson was elected in 1936, though Johnson was the incumbent governor at the time. Hickenlooper was sworn in as senator on January 3, 2021, for a six-year term that expires on January 3, 2027.

More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election in Colorado, 2020[174][175]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Hickenlooper 1,731,114 53.50% +7.24%
Republican Cory Gardner (incumbent) 1,429,492 44.18% −4.03%
Libertarian Raymon Doane 56,262 1.74% −0.85%
Approval Voting Daniel Doyle 9,820 0.30% N/A
Unity Stephen Evans 8,971 0.28% −0.04%
Total votes 3,235,659 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican
Close

By county

More information By county, County ...
Close

By congressional district

Hickenlooper won four of seven congressional districts.[177]

More information District, Gardner ...
District Gardner Hickenlooper Representative
1st 24% 74% Diana DeGette
2nd 36% 62% Joe Neguse
3rd 52% 45% Scott Tipton
Lauren Boebert
4th 59% 39% Ken Buck
5th 57% 40% Doug Lamborn
6th 42% 56% Jason Crow
7th 39% 58% Ed Perlmutter
Close

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by Romanoff's campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by 314 Action
  3. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  4. Poll sponsored by Progress Colorado, a progressive and pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  5. Giffords endorsed Hickenlooper prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. End Citizens United supports candidates who oppose the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling
  7. Poll conducted for Mike Johnston
  8. Poll sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado
  9. Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
  10. Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization

Voter samples

  1. A judge ruled that Lorena Garcia could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, since signatures could not be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  2. A judge ruled that Michelle Ferrigno Warren could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, since signatures could not be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Undecided with 15%
  5. Not yet released
  6. Standard VI response
  7. Undecided with 16%; Baer, Madden and Williams with 2%; Walsh with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
  8. With only Hickenlooper and Romanoff as candidates
  9. Undecided with 17%
  10. Undecided with 29%; Walsh with 4%; Williams with 3%; Baer and Madden with 1%
  11. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  12. "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%
  13. Doane (L) with 2%; Evans (Unity) with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  14. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  15. Doane (L) with 2%; Doyle (Approval Voting), Evans (Unity) and "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  16. "Other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  17. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  18. "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 8%
  19. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  20. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  21. Undecided with 7%
  22. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size and voters who are undecided or for third party candidates
  23. "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 6%
  24. Undecided with 9%
  25. Undecided with 9%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  26. "Don't know" with 17%; "other/none of the above" with 4%
  27. "Refused" with 3%; Undecided with 16%
  28. "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 12%
  29. "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
  30. "Undecided" with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 4%
  31. Would not vote/would not vote for U.S. Senate with 2%

References

Further reading

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