2016 United States Senate election in Illinois
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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November 8, 2016
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| Turnout | 68.39% | ||||||||||||||||
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Duckworth: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kirk: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Prior to the election, incumbent senator Mark Kirk (R) was considered to be the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2016[1][2] due to Illinois's heavy Democratic partisan balance; news networks and analysts widely expected a Democratic pickup.
Party primary elections were held on March 15, 2016. Kirk lost re-election to a second full term[3] to Tammy Duckworth, the U.S. representative from Illinois's 8th congressional district and a decorated combat veteran of the Iraq War. Duckworth became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Illinois since fellow Democrat Carol Moseley Braun in 1992. Despite his loss, Kirk outperformed Trump in the concurrent presidential election by around 2 percent. This is the last time a senator from Illinois lost re-election.
Background
In 2010, Republican Mark Kirk was elected to the Senate for Illinois, defeating Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.
Kirk suffered a severe stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013.[4] In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election,[5][6] but there was speculation that he might retire,[7] particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff.[8][9] Republican Bruce Rauner was elected governor in 2014, and a possible scenario was that Kirk would resign early, allowing Rauner to appoint another Republican as the replacement.[10] Potential replacements included U.S. representatives Bob Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock, and Peter Roskam, State Senators Jason Barickman and Christine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO of Citadel LLC Kenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie.[7][9] In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election.[3]
Kirk was identified by The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, The Huffington Post, Slate and Roll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for re-election in 2016.[11][12][13][14][15][16]
Turnout
For the primary election, turnout was 41.94%, with 3,215,334 votes cast.[17][18] For the general election, turnout was 68.39%, with 5,491,878 votes cast.[19][18]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- James Marter, businessman[20]
Removed from ballot
Withdrawn
Declined
- William J. Kelly, television producer, nominee for IL-01 in 1994, candidate for Illinois Comptroller in 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Chicago in 2015[25][26][27]
- Bobby Schilling, former U.S. representative[28]
- Joe Walsh, conservative radio talk show host and former U.S. representative[29][30][31][32][33]
Endorsements
Mark Kirk
James Marter
Individuals
- Dick Conklin, Knox County Board member[37]
- Mark Curran, Lake County sheriff[38]
- Trent Franks, U.S. representative (AZ-08)[39]
- Patrick Harlan, president of the Knox County Tea Party and candidate for IL-17 in 2016[37]
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk |
James Marter |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Tribune[42] | March 2–6, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 65% | 22% | 12% |
| SIU Simon Institute[43] | February 15–20, 2016 | 306 | ± 5.6% | 53% | 14% | 33% |
Results
Kirk—70–80%
Kirk—60–70%
Kirk—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mark Kirk (incumbent) | 931,619 | 70.6 | |
| Republican | James T. Marter | 388,571 | 29.4 | |
| Total votes | 1,320,190 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tammy Duckworth, U.S. representative[45][46][47][48]
Eliminated in primary
- Napoleon Harris, state senator and candidate for Illinois's 2nd congressional district in 2013[49][50]
- Andrea Zopp, former president and CEO of the Chicago Urban League, former Chicago Board of Education member[51][52]
Withdrawn
- Tio Hardiman, former director of CeaseFire and candidate for governor in 2014 (ran for IL-01, then withdrew to run for Cook County clerk of court[53][54][55])
- Robert Marshall, radiologist and perennial candidate (running for IL-06)[56][57]
Declined
- Daniel Biss, state senator (running for state comptroller)[58][59]
- Richard Boykin, Cook County Commissioner[60][61]
- Cheri Bustos, U.S. representative[6][16][46][48]
- Jacqueline Y. Collins, state senator[62]
- Tom Dart, sheriff of Cook County[13]
- Bill Foster, U.S. representative[63][64]
- Mike Frerichs, Illinois Treasurer[30]
- Daniel Hynes, former Illinois Comptroller, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2004 and candidate for governor of Illinois in 2010[30]
- Robin Kelly, U.S. representative[65]
- Lisa Madigan, Illinois Attorney General[6]
- Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States[66]
- Mike Quigley, U.S. representative[67]
- Pat Quinn, former governor of Illinois[8]
- Kwame Raoul, state senator[8][68]
- Jan Schakowsky, U.S. representative[45][69]
- Sheila Simon, former lieutenant governor of Illinois and nominee for Illinois Comptroller in 2014[70][71]
Endorsements
Tammy Duckworth
U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials
- Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State, 2008 presidential candidate and 2016 presidential nominee[72]
U.S. senators
- Dick Durbin, Illinois[73]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, New York[74]
- Harry Reid, Nevada[75]
- Jon Tester, Montana[75]
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts[75]
U.S. representatives
- Bill Foster, Illinois[63]
- Jan Schakowsky, Illinois[69]
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Andrea Zopp
U.S. representatives
- Danny K. Davis, Illinois[81]
- Bobby Rush, Illinois[81]
Notable individuals
- Jesse Jackson, civil rights activist[82]
- Kwame Raoul, state senator[68]
- Kurt Summers, Jr., Chicago city treasurer[81]
Newspapers
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Duckworth |
Andrea Zopp |
Napoleon Harris |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIU Simon Institute[43] | February 15–20, 2016 | 422 | ± 4.7% | 52% | 6% | 4% | 37% |
| Public Policy Polling[85] | July 20–21, 2015 | 409 | ± 4.9% | 59% | 10% | — | 31% |
Results
Duckworth—80–90%
Duckworth—70–80%
Duckworth—60–70%
Duckworth—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Duckworth | 1,220,128 | 64.38% | |
| Democratic | Andrea Zopp | 455,729 | 24.05% | |
| Democratic | Napoleon Harris | 219,286 | 11.57% | |
| Total votes | 1,859,257 | 100.00% | ||
Third party candidates
On July 6, the Green Party candidate and the Libertarian Party candidate were announced as having made the ballot for November after no objections were filed against their petitions. However, objections against two others were filed, namely the Constitution Party candidate Chad Koppie, due to his name being on a petition slate with Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle, who turned in fewer than the required petitions needed,[87] and against Independent candidate Eric Conklin. Neither Koppie nor Conklin were likely to receive ballot access after a review of their petitions.[88][89]
Constitution Party (C) (write-in)
- Chad Koppie, farmer and vice president of Kane County Regional Board of School Trustees
Libertarian Party (L)
- Kent McMillen[90]
Green Party (G)
- Scott Summers, attorney and former member of the McHenry County College Board of Trustees[90]
Independent (I)
- Eric M. Conklin, law enforcement officer
General election
- Tammy Duckworth (D), U.S. representative
- Mark Kirk (R), incumbent U.S. senator
- Chad Koppie (C) (write-in)
- Kenton McMillen (L)
- Scott Summers (G)
Debates
Campaign
Kirk had multiple factors working against him, as no Republican had won an Illinois US Senate race during a presidential election year since 1972, and he had made a number of gaffes during the campaign. He had exaggerated his Iraq War record on his campaign website,[94] and during a debate, Kirk made a racially charged remark about Duckworth's familial military background.[95] Additionally, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was unpopular in Chicago and its suburbs, and Kirk refused to endorse or vote for him, instead writing in former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.[96] Kirk also had a mostly liberal voting record in the Senate, favoring gay marriage, an assault weapons ban, and he had voted against defunding and repealing portions of Obamacare in 2015. Due to these factors, Kirk alienated the Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters whom he had previously won over in his 2010 campaign. Unusually, the normally Republican-leaning editorial board of the Chicago Tribune endorsed Duckworth, as they believed that the health problems that Kirk had suffered as a result of his stroke made him a less effective senator.[97] This election had been cited as historic, as both major party nominees had physical disabilities.[98]
Endorsements
Mark Kirk (R)
Governors
- John Kasich, governor of Ohio and 2016 presidential candidate[99]
- Bruce Rauner, governor of Illinois[100]
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 Republican presidential nominee[101]
U.S. representatives
- Mike Bost, Illinois[102]
- Rodney Davis, Illinois[102]
- Bob Dold, Illinois[102]
- Randy Hultgren, Illinois[102]
- Adam Kinzinger, Illinois[102]
- Darin Lahood, Illinois[103]
- Peter Roskam, Illinois[102]
- John Shimkus, Illinois[102]
U.S. senators
- Shelley Moore Capito, United States senator from West Virginia[104]
- John Cornyn, United States senator from Texas[104]
- Joni Ernst, United States senator from Iowa[105]
- John McCain, United States senator from Arizona, 2000 presidential candidate and 2008 presidential nominee[106]
- Mitch McConnell, United States senator from Kentucky and Senate Majority Leader[105]
- Marco Rubio, United States senator from Florida and 2016 presidential candidate[107]
State Representatives
- Mark Batinick, Illinois[102]
- Tom Bennett, Illinois[102]
- Adam Brown, Illinois[102]
- Dwight Kay, Illinois[102]
- Michael McAuliffe, Illinois[102]
- David McSweeney, Illinois[102]
- Ron Sandack, Illinois[102]
- Brian W. Stewart, Illinois[102]
- Mike Unes, Illinois[102]
- Grant Wehrli, Illinois[102]
- Christine Winger, Illinois[102]
State officials
Mayors
Individuals
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations[34]
- Gabby Giffords, former United States House of Representatives member for Arizona's 8th congressional district (Democratic)[109]
- Jim Lovell, former NASA astronaut, retired United States Navy captain and commander of the Apollo 13[110]
Newspapers
- The Daily Herald[111]
- Herald-Whig[112]
- Journal Star[113]
- The News-Gazette[114]
- Northwest Herald[115]
Organizations
- Americans for Responsible Solutions[116]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[117][118]
Tammy Duckworth (D)
U.S. presidents
U.S. vice presidents
U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials
- Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State, 2008 presidential candidate and 2016 presidential nominee[72]
U.S. senators
- Dick Durbin, Illinois[73]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, New York[74]
- Harry Reid, Nevada[75]
- Jon Tester, Montana[75]
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts[75][120]
U.S. representatives
- Bill Foster, Illinois[63]
- Jan Schakowsky, Illinois[69]
Labor unions
Newspapers
Organizations
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[75]
- EMILY's List[78]
- Human Rights Campaign (endorsed Kirk until October 29)[122]
- VoteVets.org[79]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[123] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2016 |
| Inside Elections[124] | Lean D (flip) | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[125] | Likely D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[126] | Safe D (flip) | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[127] | Likely D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[128] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,823 | ± 4.6% | 39% | 56% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[129] | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,505 | ± 4.6% | 39% | 56% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[130] | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 1,120 | ± 4.6% | 40% | 54% | — | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey[131] | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 997 | ± 4.6% | 40% | 55% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[132] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 911 | ± 4.6% | 39% | 55% | — | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey[133] | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,003 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 57% | — | 5% |
| Emerson College[134] | October 27–30, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 36% | 54% | 5% | 5% |
| Loras College[135] | October 26–27, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 34% | 42% | 6% | 18% |
| The Illinois Poll - Victory Research[136] | October 16–18, 2016 | 1,200 | ± 2.8% | 39% | 50% | 3% | 8% |
| GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk)[137] | October 4–5, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 41% | 6% | 16% |
| Southern Illinois University[138] | Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 | 865 | ± 3.3% | 34% | 48% | 8% | 10% |
| Normington, Petts and Associates (D)[139] | September 27–29, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 46% | — | 17% |
| Emerson College[140] | September 19–20, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 39% | 41% | 11% | 9% |
| Loras College[141] | September 13–16, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 41% | — | 22% |
| Normington, Petts and Associates (D)[142] | August 1–4, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 37% | 44% | — | 19% |
| The Illinois Poll - Victory Research[143] | July 14–16, 2016 | 1,200 | ± 2.8% | 37% | 46% | 4% | 12% |
| Normington, Petts and Associates (D)[142] | July 11–14, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 40% | — | 22% |
| Basswood Research (R)[144] | July 11–12, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 40% | — | 18% |
| GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk)[145] | March 30–31, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | — | 17% |
| End Citizens United[146] | September 10–14, 2015 | 948 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 45% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[85] | July 20–21, 2015 | 931 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 42% | — | 22% |
| Ogden & Fry[147] | June 23, 2015 | 598 | ± 4.1% | 27% | 44% | — | 29% |
| We Ask America[148] | December 18, 2014 | 1,003 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | — | 9% |
Hypothetical polling
with Andrea Zopp
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Andrea Zopp (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[85] | July 20–21, 2015 | 931 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 29% | — | 32% |
with Lisa Madigan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Lisa Madigan (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[149] | November 22–25, 2013 | 557 | ± 4.2% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
with Michelle Obama
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Michelle Obama (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[150] | March 21–22, 2014 | 806 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[151] | November 26–28, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 51% | 9% |
with Pat Quinn
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Pat Quinn (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America[148] | December 18, 2014 | 1,003 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 36% | 9% |
Results
The result was a landslide victory for Tammy Duckworth. Pre-election polling showed Kirk would be easily defeated by Duckworth, and the polls were proven right when Duckworth was declared the winner quickly after polls closed in Illinois. Duckworth performed extremely well in the heavily populated and strongly Democratic Cook County, home of Chicago. Duckworth also did well in Champaign, East St. Louis and Carbondale. Kirk did do well in rural parts of the state, but it was nowhere near enough to offset his weakness in the Chicago metropolitan area. The Chicago 'collar counties' — among them Kirk's home county of Lake County — previously voted for Kirk, but easily flipped to Duckworth. Duckworth was sworn in at 12:00 P.M. EST on January 3, 2017. The Libertarian and Green candidates polled well, winning three and two percent of the vote respectively.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Duckworth | 3,012,940 | 54.86% | +8.44% | |
| Republican | Mark Kirk (incumbent) | 2,184,692 | 39.78% | −8.23% | |
| Libertarian | Kenton McMillen | 175,988 | 3.21% | +0.85% | |
| Green | Scott Summers | 117,619 | 2.14% | −1.04% | |
| Write-in | 639 | 0.01% | -0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 5,491,878 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- DeKalb (largest city: DeKalb)
- DuPage (largest city: Aurora)
- Gallatin (largest city: Shawneetown)
- Kane (largest city: Aurora)
- Lake (largest city: Waukegan)
- McDonough (largest city: Macomb)
- Will (largest city: Joliet)
- Calhoun (largest village: Hardin)
- Madison (largest city: Granite City)
- Knox (largest city: Galesburg)
- Champaign (largest city: Champaign)
- Rock Island (largest city: Moline)
By congressional district
Duckworth won 12 of 18 districts, including one that elected a Republican.[153]
| District | Kirk | Duckworth | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 21% | 74% | Bobby Rush |
| 2nd | 19% | 77% | Robin Kelly |
| 3rd | 38% | 56% | Dan Lipinski |
| 4th | 16% | 77% | Luis Gutierrez |
| 5th | 31% | 64% | Mike Quigley |
| 6th | 50% | 44% | Peter Roskam |
| 7th | 15% | 82% | Danny K. Davis |
| 8th | 38% | 56% | Tammy Duckworth |
| Raja Krishnamoorthi | |||
| 9th | 33% | 63% | Jan Schakowsky |
| 10th | 42% | 53% | Robert Dold |
| Brad Schneider | |||
| 11th | 37% | 57% | Bill Foster |
| 12th | 43% | 52% | Mike Bost |
| 13th | 47.2% | 46.9% | Rodney Davis |
| 14th | 51% | 42% | Randy Hultgren |
| 15th | 62% | 33% | John Shimkus |
| 16th | 54% | 39% | Adam Kinzinger |
| 17th | 46% | 48% | Cheri Bustos |
| 18th | 59% | 35% | Darin LaHood |