2012 United States Senate election in New York
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2012 United States Senate election in New York took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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November 6, 2012
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| Turnout | 53.2% (voting eligible)[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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  Gillibrand: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Long: 40–50% 50–60% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Governor David Paterson appointed then-U.S. Representative Kirsten Gillibrand to serve as U.S. senator from New York until the 2010 special election, succeeding former U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton, who resigned to serve as U.S. Secretary of State in the Obama administration. Gillibrand won the special election in 2010 with 62.95% of the vote over former U.S. Representative Joseph DioGuardi.
Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand won re-election to her first full term by a landslide. She was opposed in the general election by Wendy Long (who ran on the Republican and Conservative Party tickets) and by three minor party candidates. Gillibrand was re-elected with 72% of the vote. She carried 60 out of 62 counties statewide, losing only Wyoming and Allegany counties.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Kirsten Gillibrand, incumbent U.S. senator[2]
Gillibrand was endorsed by the Independence Party of New York and the Working Families Party and appeared on the ballot lines of both of those parties in the general election.[3][4]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Wendy Long, attorney[5]
- George Maragos, Nassau County comptroller[6]
- Bob Turner, U.S. Representative, New York's 9th congressional district[7]
The 2012 New York State Republican Convention took place on March 16, 2012.[8] Candidates Wendy Long, George Maragos, and Congressman Bob Turner each reached the threshold of 25% of the weighted vote necessary to qualify for the June 26 primary ballot; however, none of the candidates achieved a majority.[9] Long prevailed by a sizeable margin in the June 26 Republican primary, receiving 50.9% of the vote; Turner received 35.6% and Maragos 13.5%.[10]
Long was designated as the nominee for the Conservative Party of New York State, and appeared on its ballot line in the general election as well as the Republican Party line.[4][11]
Withdrew
- Joe Carvin, Rye Town Supervisor,[12] withdrew on March 16, 2012[13] to run for the House of Representatives against Nita Lowey.
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Wendy Long |
George Maragos |
Bob Turner |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[14] | March 28 – April 2, 2012 | 372 | ±5.1% | 11% | 7% | 19% | 2% | 61% |
| Siena College[15] | April 1–4, 2012 | 218 | ±6.6% | 10% | 5% | 19% | — | 66% |
| Siena College[16] | May 6–10, 2012 | 205 | ±6.8% | 12% | 6% | 15% | — | 67% |
| Siena College[17] | June 3–6, 2012 | 201 | ±6.9% | 11% | 3% | 16% | — | 70% |
Endorsements
Wendy Long
Individuals
- John Bolton, former US Ambassador to the United Nations
- John Faso, 2006 gubernatorial candidate
- Steve Forbes, publisher and former presidential candidate
- Sean Hannity, talk radio/television host
- Laura Ingraham, talk radio host
- Brian Kolb, State Assembly Minority Leader
- Rick Lazio, former US congressman from New York
- Grover Norquist
- Carl Paladino, 2010 gubernatorial candidate
- Dennis Vacco, former New York State Attorney General
Organizations
Newspapers
Bob Turner
- Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City, 2008 presidential candidate, and Time Person of the Year for 2001
- Martin Golden, New York state senator from the 22nd District
- Rush Limbaugh, talk radio host
Source: Update for US Senate Election NY 2012[18]
Results
Long
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Turner
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Maragos
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Wendy Long | 75,924 | 50.2% | |
| Republican | Bob Turner | 54,196 | 35.9% | |
| Republican | George Maragos | 21,002 | 13.9% | |
| Total votes | 151,122 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Colia Clark (Green), civil rights activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[20]
- Chris Edes (Libertarian)
- Kirsten Gillibrand (Democratic, Working Families, Independence), incumbent U.S. senator
- Wendy Long (Republican, Conservative), attorney
- John Mangelli (Common Sense Party)
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 17, 2012 - C-SPAN
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirsten Gillibrand (D) | $13,778,867 | $3,734,097 | $10,541,156 | $0 |
| Wendy Long (R) | $336,976 | $240,564 | $96,411 | $250,077 |
| Chris Edes (L) | $2,017 | $668 | $1,348 | $0 |
| John Mangelli (I) | $43,819 | $43,820 | $0 | $22,120 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[21][22][23][24] | ||||
Top contributors
| Kirsten Gillibrand | Contribution | Wendy Long | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boies, Schiller & Flexner | $394,664 | Citizens United | $10,000 |
| Davis Polk & Wardwell | $314,600 | Susan B. Anthony List | $10,000 |
| Corning Inc. | $150,650 | Davis, Polk & Wardwell | $8,500 |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co | $143,800 | Kirkland & Ellis | $7,000 |
| Morgan Stanley | $140,800 | Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz | $6,000 |
| National Amusements Inc. | $126,850 | Alta Partners | $5,500 |
| Goldman Sachs | $117,400 | Actimize | $5,000 |
| Blackstone Group | $106,700 | Carlyle Group | $5,000 |
| Sullivan & Cromwell | $100,750 | Credit Suisse Group | $5,000 |
| Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett | $95,700 | Crow Holdings | $5,000 |
Top industries
| Kirsten Gillibrand | Contribution | Wendy Long | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $4,050,294 | Lawyers/law firms | $38,550 |
| Financial institutions | $2,748,640 | Financial institutions | $31,750 |
| Real estate | $1,257,504 | Real estate | $26,250 |
| Retired | $921,738 | Retired | $25,050 |
| Women's issues | $853,517 | Misc. finance | $16,000 |
| Entertainment industry | $764,677 | Women's issues | $15,150 |
| Lobbyists | $723,596 | Republican/Conservative | $11,250 |
| Misc. finance | $644,953 | Education | $7,250 |
| Business services | $621,286 | Misc. business | $7,000 |
| Insurance | $518,275 | Construction services | $5,000 |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[27] | Solid D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[29] | Safe D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[30] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
Wendy Long (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[14] | March 28 – April 2, 2012 | 1,597 | ±2.5% | 58% | 25% | 1% | 13% |
| Siena College[15] | April 1–4, 2012 | 808 | ±3.4% | 63% | 23% | — | 14% |
| Siena College[16] | May 6–10, 2012 | 766 | ±3.5% | 60% | 26% | — | 14% |
| Quinnipiac[31] | May 22–28, 2012 | 1,504 | ±2.5% | 58% | 24% | 1% | 15% |
| Siena College[17] | June 3–6, 2012 | 807 | ±3.4% | 65% | 22% | — | 12% |
| Siena College[32] | July 10–15, 2012 | 758 | ±3.6% | 62% | 25% | — | 13% |
| Quinnipiac[33] | July 17–23, 2012 | 1,779 | ±2.3% | 57% | 24% | 1% | 16% |
| Siena College[34] | August 14–19, 2012 | 671 | ±3.8% | 65% | 22% | — | 13% |
| Quinnipiac[35] | September 4–9, 2012 | 1,468 | ±2.5% | 64% | 27% | — | 9% |
| Marist[36] | October 18–21, 2012 | 565 | ±4.1% | 68% | 24% | — | 8% |
| Siena College[37] | October 22–24, 2012 | 750 | ±3.6% | 67% | 24% | — | 8% |
| SurveyUSA[38] | October 23–25, 2012 | 554 | ±4.1% | 64% | 22% | 7% | 7% |
Hypothetical polling
with George Maragos
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
George Maragos (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College[39] | November 8–13, 2011 | 803 | ±3.5% | 65% | 17% | — | 18% |
| Siena College[40] | January 8–12, 2012 | 805 | ±3.5% | 63% | 22% | — | 15% |
| Siena College[41] | January 29 – February 1, 2012 | 807 | ±3.4% | 63% | 20% | — | 17% |
| SurveyUSA[42] | February 24–26, 2012 | 518 | ±4.4% | 53% | 23% | — | 25% |
| Siena College[43] | February 26–29, 2012 | 808 | ±3.4% | 68% | 19% | — | 13% |
| Quinnipiac[14] | March 28 – April 2, 2012 | 1,597 | ±2.5% | 57% | 23% | 2% | 15% |
| Siena College[15] | April 1–4, 2012 | 808 | ±3.4% | 65% | 21% | — | 14% |
| Siena College[16] | May 6–10, 2012 | 766 | ±3.5% | 60% | 25% | — | 15% |
| Quinnipiac[31] | May 22–28, 2012 | 1,504 | ±2.5% | 57% | 24% | 1% | 16% |
| Siena College[17] | June 3–6, 2012 | 807 | ±3.4% | 65% | 23% | — | 13% |
with Bob Turner
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
Bob Turner (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[14] | March 28 – April 2, 2012 | 1,597 | ±2.5% | 57% | 27% | 1% | 13% |
| Siena College[15] | April 1–4, 2012 | 808 | ±3.4% | 65% | 24% | — | 11% |
| Siena College[16] | May 6–10, 2012 | 766 | ±3.5% | 59% | 25% | — | 15% |
| Quinnipiac[31] | May 22–28, 2012 | 1,504 | ±2.5% | 56% | 26% | 0% | 15% |
| Siena College[17] | June 3–6, 2012 | 807 | ±3.4% | 63% | 25% | — | 11% |
with Marc Cenedella
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
Marc Cenedella (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College[44] | January 29 – February 1, 2012 | 807 | ±3.4% | 65% | 18% | 17% |
with Harry Wilson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
Harry Wilson (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College[39] | November 8–13, 2011 | 803 | ±3.5% | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Siena College[40] | January 8–12, 2012 | 805 | ±3.5% | 63% | 23% | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kirsten Gillibrand | 4,432,525 | 66.36% | +11.36% | |
| Working Families | Kirsten Gillibrand | 251,292 | 3.76% | −0.29% | |
| Independence | Kirsten Gillibrand | 138,513 | 2.07% | −1.83% | |
| Total | Kirsten Gillibrand (incumbent) | 4,822,330 | 72.19% | +9.24% | |
| Republican | Wendy Long | 1,517,578 | 22.72% | −6.97% | |
| Conservative | Wendy Long | 241,124 | 3.61% | −1.81% | |
| Total | Wendy Long | 1,758,702 | 26.33% | −8.78% | |
| Green | Colia Clark | 42,591 | 0.64% | −0.15% | |
| Libertarian | Chris Edes | 32,002 | 0.48% | +0.07% | |
| Independent | John Mangelli | 22,041 | 0.33% | N/A | |
| Write ins | Write ins | 2,012 | 0.03% | ||
| Total votes | 6,679,678 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Results by county
| County | Kirsten Gillibrand Democratic |
Wendy Long Republican |
Various candidates | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Albany | 98,432 | 75.1% | 30,317 | 23.1% | 2,297 | 1.7% | 68,115 | 52.0% | 131,046 |
| Allegany | 7,635 | 47.5% | 8,151 | 50.8% | 275 | 1.7% | −516 | −3.3% | 16,061 |
| Bronx | 321,378 | 93.1% | 21,618 | 6.3% | 2,231 | 0.7% | 299,760 | 86.8% | 345,227 |
| Broome | 49,814 | 64.4% | 26,166 | 33.8% | 1,375 | 1.7% | 23,648 | 30.6% | 77,355 |
| Cattaraugus | 15,654 | 55.5% | 12,058 | 42.8% | 482 | 1.6% | 3,596 | 12.7% | 28,194 |
| Cayuga | 18,067 | 62.0% | 10,265 | 35.3% | 788 | 2.8% | 7,802 | 26.7% | 29,120 |
| Chautauqua | 29,001 | 57.2% | 20,869 | 41.2% | 824 | 1.6% | 8,132 | 16.0% | 50,694 |
| Chemung | 20,682 | 61.8% | 12,345 | 36.9% | 449 | 1.3% | 8,337 | 24.9% | 33,476 |
| Chenango | 10,672 | 58.9% | 6,956 | 38.4% | 483 | 2.7% | 3,716 | 20.5% | 18,111 |
| Clinton | 19,439 | 68.5% | 8,373 | 29.5% | 554 | 2.0% | 11,066 | 39.0% | 28,366 |
| Columbia | 19,905 | 69.9% | 8,154 | 28.6% | 476 | 1.5% | 11,751 | 41.3% | 28,490 |
| Cortland | 11,166 | 60.7% | 6,730 | 36.6% | 514 | 2.8% | 4,436 | 24.1% | 18,410 |
| Delaware | 11,172 | 61.8% | 6,606 | 36.6% | 288 | 1.6% | 4,566 | 25.2% | 18,066 |
| Dutchess | 77,809 | 65.8% | 38,607 | 32.6% | 1,840 | 1.5% | 39,202 | 33.2% | 118,256 |
| Erie | 265,264 | 68.1% | 117,861 | 30.3% | 6,453 | 1.6% | 147,403 | 37.8% | 389,578 |
| Essex | 10,094 | 64.9% | 5,201 | 33.4% | 259 | 1.7% | 4,893 | 31.5% | 15,554 |
| Franklin | 9,960 | 66.8% | 4,708 | 31.6% | 243 | 1.7% | 5,252 | 35.2% | 14,911 |
| Fulton | 11,122 | 59.2% | 7,401 | 39.4% | 260 | 1.4% | 3,721 | 19.8% | 18,783 |
| Genesee | 11,845 | 51.4% | 10,745 | 46.6% | 458 | 1.9% | 1,110 | 4.8% | 23,048 |
| Greene | 12,098 | 60.6% | 7,544 | 37.8% | 314 | 1.7% | 4,554 | 22.8% | 19,956 |
| Hamilton | 1,487 | 50.0% | 1,449 | 48.7% | 39 | 1.3% | 38 | 1.3% | 2,975 |
| Herkimer | 14,655 | 62.4% | 8,421 | 35.9% | 405 | 1.8% | 6,234 | 26.5% | 23,481 |
| Jefferson | 21,746 | 63.7% | 11,882 | 34.8% | 509 | 1.5% | 9,864 | 28.9% | 34,137 |
| Kings | 598,834 | 87.1% | 79,504 | 11.6% | 9,249 | 1.3% | 519,330 | 75.5% | 687,587 |
| Lewis | 5,886 | 60.7% | 3,662 | 37.8% | 149 | 1.6% | 2,224 | 22.9% | 9,697 |
| Livingston | 13,462 | 54.3% | 10,910 | 44.0% | 442 | 1.7% | 2,552 | 10.3% | 24,814 |
| Madison | 15,732 | 59.2% | 10,101 | 38.0% | 755 | 2.9% | 5,631 | 21.2% | 26,588 |
| Monroe | 209,781 | 66.2% | 101,323 | 32.0% | 5,644 | 1.8% | 108,458 | 34.2% | 316,748 |
| Montgomery | 10,957 | 63.8% | 5,938 | 34.6% | 291 | 1.8% | 5,019 | 29.2% | 17,186 |
| Nassau | 342,644 | 63.8% | 188,430 | 35.1% | 5,584 | 1.1% | 154,214 | 28.7% | 536,658 |
| New York | 487,701 | 86.8% | 65,699 | 11.7% | 8,236 | 1.5% | 422,002 | 75.1% | 561,636 |
| Niagara | 51,592 | 61.6% | 30,645 | 36.6% | 1,491 | 1.8% | 20,947 | 25.0% | 83,728 |
| Oneida | 50,715 | 62.2% | 29,059 | 35.6% | 1,812 | 2.3% | 21,656 | 26.6% | 81,586 |
| Onondaga | 133,892 | 68.3% | 56,997 | 29.1% | 5,276 | 2.7% | 76,895 | 39.2% | 196,165 |
| Ontario | 25,987 | 56.8% | 18,838 | 41.2% | 901 | 2.0% | 7,149 | 15.6% | 45,726 |
| Orange | 88,689 | 65.3% | 45,128 | 33.2% | 2,026 | 1.5% | 43,561 | 32.1% | 135,843 |
| Orleans | 6,884 | 50.1% | 6,556 | 47.7% | 299 | 2.1% | 328 | 2.4% | 13,739 |
| Oswego | 25,117 | 60.2% | 15,404 | 36.9% | 1,182 | 2.9% | 9,713 | 23.3% | 41,703 |
| Otsego | 15,114 | 65.0% | 7,767 | 33.4% | 378 | 1.6% | 7,347 | 31.6% | 23,259 |
| Putnam | 24,310 | 58.7% | 16,549 | 39.9% | 582 | 1.4% | 7,761 | 18.8% | 41,441 |
| Queens | 468,079 | 84.1% | 82,169 | 14.8% | 6,651 | 1.1% | 385,910 | 69.3% | 556,899 |
| Rensselaer | 45,767 | 69.3% | 19,310 | 29.2% | 996 | 1.6% | 26,457 | 40.1% | 66,073 |
| Richmond | 94,843 | 63.9% | 51,782 | 34.9% | 1,691 | 1.1% | 43,061 | 29.0% | 148,316 |
| Rockland | 77,915 | 66.5% | 37,955 | 32.4% | 1,350 | 1.1% | 39,960 | 34.1% | 117,220 |
| St. Lawrence | 24,157 | 69.4% | 10,092 | 29.0% | 569 | 1.6% | 14,065 | 40.4% | 34,818 |
| Saratoga | 66,459 | 64.8% | 34,728 | 33.8% | 1,439 | 1.4% | 31,731 | 31.0% | 102,626 |
| Schenectady | 43,030 | 68.9% | 18,273 | 29.3% | 1,159 | 1.8% | 24,757 | 39.6% | 62,462 |
| Schoharie | 7,541 | 58.9% | 5,048 | 39.4% | 213 | 1.7% | 2,493 | 19.5% | 12,802 |
| Schuyler | 4,456 | 57.6% | 3,107 | 40.2% | 171 | 2.3% | 1,349 | 17.4% | 7,734 |
| Seneca | 7,345 | 59.0% | 4,815 | 38.7% | 284 | 2.3% | 2,530 | 20.3% | 12,444 |
| Steuben | 20,044 | 54.3% | 16,240 | 44.0% | 598 | 1.6% | 3,804 | 10.3% | 36,882 |
| Suffolk | 354,929 | 63.3% | 198,683 | 35.4% | 7,128 | 1.3% | 156,246 | 27.9% | 560,740 |
| Sullivan | 17,427 | 65.9% | 8,551 | 32.4% | 454 | 1.8% | 8,876 | 33.5% | 26,432 |
| Tioga | 11,206 | 54.3% | 8,995 | 43.6% | 423 | 2.0% | 2,211 | 10.7% | 20,654 |
| Tompkins | 27,764 | 73.0% | 9,059 | 23.8% | 1,211 | 3.2% | 18,705 | 49.2% | 38,034 |
| Ulster | 54,455 | 70.7% | 29,908 | 27.1% | 1,653 | 2.2% | 33,547 | 43.6% | 77,016 |
| Warren | 19,347 | 67.1% | 9,095 | 31.6% | 370 | 1.3% | 10,252 | 35.5% | 28,812 |
| Washington | 15,228 | 67.3% | 7,067 | 31.2% | 321 | 1.4% | 8,161 | 36.1% | 22,616 |
| Wayne | 18,974 | 53.1% | 15,973 | 44.7% | 783 | 2.1% | 3,001 | 8.4% | 35,730 |
| Westchester | 254,723 | 70.8% | 100,279 | 27.9% | 4,650 | 1.3% | 154,444 | 42.9% | 359,652 |
| Wyoming | 7,475 | 48.8% | 7,556 | 49.3% | 283 | 1.9% | −81 | −0.5% | 15,314 |
| Yates | 4,772 | 52.8% | 4,080 | 45.2% | 181 | 2.0% | 692 | 7.6% | 9,033 |
| Totals | 4,511,045 | 72.19% | 1,700,640 | 26.33% | 93,205 | 1.48% | 2,810,405 | 45.86% | 6,679,678 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Gillibrand won all 27 congressional districts, including six held by Republicans.[46] She won all but two with over 60% of the vote, with the 27th being her weakest with only 55% of the vote.
| District | Gillibrand | Long | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 62.13% | 36.58% | Tim Bishop |
| 2nd | 63.33% | 35.51% | Peter T. King |
| 3rd | 62.51% | 36.28% | Steve Israel |
| 4th | 66.17% | 32.88% | Carolyn McCarthy |
| 5th | 92.32% | 7.21% | Gregory Meeks |
| 6th | 75.99% | 22.58% | Grace Meng |
| 7th | 90.67% | 7.65% | Nydia Velázquez |
| 8th | 91.75% | 7.35% | Hakeem Jeffries |
| 9th | 89.59% | 9.33% | Yvette Clarke |
| 10th | 81.28% | 17.15% | Jerry Nadler |
| 11th | 64.5% | 34.23% | Michael Grimm |
| 12th | 81.74% | 16.49% | Carolyn Maloney |
| 13th | 95.05% | 3.91% | Charles B. Rangel |
| 14th | 84.85% | 13.76% | Joe Crowley |
| 15th | 96.89% | 2.7% | Jose Serrano |
| 16th | 79.78% | 19.23% | Eliot Engel |
| 17th | 68.41% | 30.33% | Nita Lowey |
| 18th | 64.33% | 34.22% | Sean Patrick Maloney |
| 19th | 65.98% | 32.34% | Chris Gibson |
| 20th | 71.07% | 27.26% | Paul Tonko |
| 21st | 65.41% | 33.1% | Bill Owens |
| 22nd | 61.77% | 36.05% | Richard L. Hanna |
| 23rd | 58.95% | 39.13% | Tom Reed |
| 24th | 65.34% | 32.06% | Dan Maffei |
| 25th | 66.81% | 31.45% | Louise Slaughter |
| 26th | 73.31% | 24.99% | Brian Higgins |
| 27th | 55.55% | 42.71% | Chris Collins |