2010 United States Senate election in Ohio
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2010 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 2, 2010, as one of many Ohio elections in 2010. Incumbent two-term Republican U.S. Senator George Voinovich decided to retire instead of seeking a third term.[2] Former Representative Republican Rob Portman won the open seat.
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November 2, 2010
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| Turnout | 49.22% (registered voters)  22.55pp | ||||||||||||||||
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Portman: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Fisher: 40–50% 50–60% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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This was one of the five Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Barack Obama won in the 2008 presidential election.
Republican primary
Background
With rumors circulating about Voinovich's possible retirement, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget, United States Trade Representative, and Congressman Rob Portman and State Auditor Mary Taylor were considered the main contenders for the Republican nomination.[3] Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell was also considered a potential candidate, but declined in order to run for chairman of the Republican National Committee.[4]
Candidate
- Rob Portman, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget (2006-2007), former United States Trade Representative (2005-2006) and former U.S. Representative of Ohio's 2nd congressional district (1993-2005)
Campaign
When Voinovich made his retirement official, Portman declared his candidacy the next day.[5] Thomas Ganley, a Cleveland car dealer, launched his campaign for the nomination in April, after Portman had collected support from most of the Ohio Republican establishment.[6] Taylor officially declined to run in May and was announced as gubernatorial candidate John Kasich's running mate on January 12, 2010.[7]
Ganley was the only other declared candidate, but on February 17, 2010, he announced that he would switch races and run against Betty Sutton in Ohio's 13th congressional district instead,[8] leaving Portman as the only Republican candidate. He had over $7 million in campaign funds.[9]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rob Portman | 667,369 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 667,369 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Background
Congressman Tim Ryan, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher were considered leading contenders to run against George Voinovich.[11] Ohio Governor Ted Strickland urged Jennifer Brunner to run for re-election rather than run for the Senate.[12] Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones and Ohio State Representative Tyrone Yates considered running, but both withdrew from consideration.[13][14]
Candidates
- Lee Fisher, Lieutenant Governor of Ohio (2007-2011), former Attorney General of Ohio (1991-1995) and nominee for Governor in 1998
- Jennifer Brunner, Secretary of State (2007-2011)
Campaign
On February 17, 2009, Brunner and Fisher both officially announced their candidacies for the now-open seat election, with Strickland officially endorsing Fisher.[12][15][16] Ryan declined to run and endorsed Fisher in July.[17]
Fisher was endorsed by Governor Ted Strickland and U.S. Representatives John Boccieri, Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson.[18]
Polling in late 2009 and January 2010 showed Brunner to be more competitive than Fisher in a general election matchup against Portman, while Fisher and Brunner were deadlocked in Democratic primary polling.[19]
Charlene Renee Bradley and Traci Johnson also filed to run in the Democratic primary.[20]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jennifer Brunner | Lee Fisher | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[21] | January 29 – February 2, 2009 | 492 | ± 4.4% | 16% | 18% | 14% | 53% |
| Quinnipiac University[22] | March 10–15, 2009 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 14% | 18% | 1% | 46% |
| Quinnipiac University[22] | April 28 – May 4, 2009 | 437 | ± 4.7% | 16% | 20% | 1% | 59% |
| Quinnipiac University[23] | June 26 – July 1, 2009 | 483 | ± 4.5% | 21% | 24% | 2% | 51% |
| Research 2000[24] | July 6–8, 2009 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 17% | 22% | — | 61% |
| Quinnipiac University[25] | September 10–13, 2009 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 17% | 26% | 2% | 55% |
| Quinnipiac University[26] | November 5–9, 2009 | 394 | ± 4.9% | 22% | 24% | 1% | 51% |
| Quinnipiac University[27] | February 16–21, 2010 | 604 | ± 4.0% | 20% | 29% | 2% | 48% |
| Quinnipiac University[28] | March 25–28, 2010 | 978 | ± 3.1% | 26% | 33% | 1% | 40% |
| Research 2000[29] | April 5–7, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.0% | 26% | 35% | — | 39% |
| Quinnipiac University[30] | April 22–26, 2010 | 987 | ± 3.1% | 24% | 41% | 1% | 34% |
| Suffolk University[31] | April 27–29, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 27% | 55% | — | 18% |
| Quinnipiac University[32] | April 29 – May 2, 2010 | 980 | ± 3.1% | 23% | 43% | 1% | 32% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Lee Fisher | 380,189 | 55.6% | |
| Democratic | Jennifer Brunner | 304,026 | 44.4% | |
| Total votes | 684,206 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Rob Portman (R), former U.S. Congressman and Cabinet member for George W. Bush
- Lee Fisher (D), Lieutenant Governor, former Ohio Attorney General, former State Senator, and former State Representative
- Dan La Botz (Socialist Party), labor union activist, academic, journalist, and author
- Eric Deaton (Constitution Party)
- Michael Pryce (Independent)
Campaign
When the incumbent announced he would retire, Portman jumped into the race in early 2009. During the two-year time period, Portman raised over $9 million.[34] Originally, the election was seen as a toss-up, as Portman's experience in the Bush administration was considered a liability for him.[35] Both President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden campaigned for Fisher.[36] However, Portman consistently led in fundraising and polling, particularly as Portman was unopposed in the Republican primary, while the Democratic primary between Fisher and Brunner was highly divisive.
Television advertisements were very negative. Fisher attacked Portman for helping to ship jobs overseas during his entire political career, backing deals that shipped jobs overseas, and the trade deficit with China, which grew by over $41 billion.[37] Portman claimed in response that most jobs were being lost to other states, not countries.[38] Portman attacked Fisher for supporting Obama's stimulus and cap and trade.[39][40]
Debates
Three debates were held in Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo.[41] The first one was in Toledo on October 5. The second one was in Cleveland on October 8, while the third was in Columbus on October 12.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[42] | Solid R | October 26, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[43] | Safe R | October 22, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[44] | Safe R | October 26, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Likely R | October 21, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[46] | Safe R | October 26, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lee Fisher (D) | Rob Portman (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report[permanent dead link]) | January 17–18, 2009 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 41% | — | 20% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | January 29 – February 2, 2009 | 1,127 | ± 2.9% | 42% | 27% | 1% | 29% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | March 10–15, 2009 | 1,299 | ± 2.7% | 41% | 33% | 1% | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | April 28 – May 4, 2009 | 1,079 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 31% | 1% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling (report[permanent dead link]) | June 17–19, 2009 | 619 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 32% | — | 27% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | June 26 – July 1, 2009 | 1,259 | ± 2.8% | 37% | 33% | 2% | 26% |
| Research 2000 (report) | July 6–8, 2009 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 42% | 35% | — | 23% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | September 10–13, 2009 | 1,074 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 31% | 1% | 26% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 23, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | 6% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | November 5–9, 2009 | 1,123 | ± 2.9% | 36% | 39% | — | 24% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | December 7, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 38% | 8% | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 44% | 4% | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | February 5–6, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 43% | 5% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | February 16–21, 2010 | 1,662 | ± 2.4% | 37% | 40% | 2% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 4, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 44% | 5% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | March 20–21, 2010 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 36% | 41% | — | 23% |
| Quinnipiac (report) | March 23–29, 2010 | 1,526 | ± 2.5% | 41% | 37% | 1% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 43% | 4% | 14% |
| Research 2000 (report) | April 5–7, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 39% | — | 18% |
| Quinnipiac Polling (report) | April 21–26, 2010 | 1,568 | ± 2.5% | 40% | 37% | 1% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | May 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 42% | 4% | 14% |
| UC/The Ohio Poll (report) | May 11–20, 2010 | 668 | ± 3.8% | 47% | 46% | — | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | June 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 43% | 4% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac Polling (report) | June 22–27, 2010 | 1,107 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 40% | 1% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | June 26–27, 2010 | 482 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 38% | –– | 22% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | June 29, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 43% | 4% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | July 19, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 45% | 5% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | August 2, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 44% | 5% | 11% |
| Reuters/Ipsos (report) | August 6–8, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 43% | — | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | August 16, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 45% | 5% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | August 27–29, 2010 | 475 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 45% | — | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | August 30, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 11% |
| The Columbus Dispatch (report) | August 25 – September 3, 2010 | 1,622 | ± 2.2% | 37% | 50% | 3% | 9% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) | September 11, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 41% | 48% | 3% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 13, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 49% | 2% | 8% |
| CNN/Time Magazine (report) | September 10–14, 2010 | 820 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 52% | 4% | 2% |
| SurveyUSA (report) | September 14, 2010 | 1000 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 49% | 7% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | September 17, 2010 | 730 | ± 3.6% | 35% | 55% | — | 1% |
| Ohio Newspapers Poll/UC (report) | September 24, 2010 | 850 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 55% | — | 5% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) | September 25, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 50% | 3% | 11% |
| CBS/NY Times report[link removed]) | September 23–27, 2010 | 941 | ± 3.0% | 34% | 45% | — | 18% |
| Reuters/Ipsos report) | September 23–25, 2010 | 440 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 50% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 27, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 51% | 1% | 6% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) | October 2, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 53% | 2% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | September 29 – October 3, 2010 | 1,025 | ± 3.1% | 36% | 55% | — | — |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) | Oct. 5–8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 52% | 6% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | October 11, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 34% | 57% | 2% | 7% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | October 8–13, 2010 | 705 | ± 3.7% | 36% | 58% | 1% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | October 12–17, 2010 | 1,183 | ± 2.8% | 34% | 55% | 1% | 10% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | October 14–18, 2010 | 839 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 58% | 0% | 3% |
| CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report) | October 15–19, 2010 | 1,502 | ± 2.5% | 40% | 55% | 2% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | October 20, 2010 | 686 | ± 2.5% | 34% | 55% | — | 2% |
| Wilson Research Strategies (report) | October 20–21, 2010 | 500 | ± 3.0% | 38% | 49% | — | 8% |
| SurveyUSA (report) | October 22–26, 2010 | 950 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 52% | — | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | October 26, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 33% | 57% | 3% | 7% |
| Columbus Dispatch (report) | October 20–29, 2010 | 1,445 | ± 2.3% | 40% | 56% | 0% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | October 25–30, 2010 | 848 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 56% | 1% | 8% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) | October 27–29, 2010 | 460 | ± 4.6% | 40% | 57% | 3% | — |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | October 28–30, 2010 | 1,356 | ± 2.7% | 39% | 57% | 0% | 4% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | October 27–31, 2010 | 930 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 60% | 0% | 1% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | November 1, 2010 | 930 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 61% | 0% | 0% |
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Portman (R) | $15,998,398 | $10,493,211 | $5,505,186 | $0 |
| Lee Fisher (D) | $6,191,361 | $5,882,729 | $308,631 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[47] | ||||
Results
Winning the election, Portman received 57% of the votes. He received the majority of votes in 82 of 88 counties and in 15 of 18 Congressional districts, including the district of liberal U.S. Congressman Dennis Kucinich.[48]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Robert Jones Portman | 2,168,742 | 56.85% | −6.61% | |
| Democratic | Lee Irwin Fisher | 1,503,297 | 39.40% | +2.85% | |
| Constitution | Eric Deaton | 65,856 | 1.72% | N/A | |
| Independent | Michael Pryce | 50,101 | 1.31% | N/A | |
| Socialist | Daniel LaBotz | 26,454 | 0.69% | N/A | |
| N/A | Arthur Sullivan (write-in) | 648 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Majority | 665,445 | 17.44% | |||
| Total votes | 3,815,098 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | Swing | NA | |||