2002 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
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The 2002 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Bob Smith was defeated in the Republican primary by U.S. Representative John E. Sununu.[1] Sununu won the open seat, defeating Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen. As of 2025[update], this was the last time Republicans or a male candidate won the Class 2 Senate seat in New Hampshire; Shaheen defeated Sununu in their 2008 rematch for this seat and has held it since 2009. This was Shaheen’s only unsuccessful run for elected office. Smith later ran for this seat again in 2014 and lost the Republican primary.
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November 5, 2002
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Sununu: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Shaheen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Republican primary
Campaign
Senator Bob Smith, the incumbent Republican Senator, briefly left the party in 1999 to run for president as an independent, claiming that the Republican platform was "not worth the paper it's written on".[2] He rejoined the GOP a few months later, saying he made a mistake.[2] Nonetheless, the party never fully forgave him, and some of his fellow Republican Senators went so far as to endorse his primary opponent, Rep. John Sununu,[3] who would go on to win by more than eight percentage points.
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Smith |
John Sununu |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire/WMUR[4] | August 26 – September 3, 2002 | 335 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 34% | 56% | 1%[b] | 9% |
| University of New Hampshire[5] | June 23 – July 1, 2002 | 230 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 40% | 52% | 3%[c] | 9% |
| American Research Group[6] | June 21–25, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 48% | – | 11% |
| American Research Group[7] | June 3–5, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 55% | – | 7% |
| American Research Group[8] | April 30 – May 2, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 29% | 56% | – | 15% |
| University of New Hampshire/WMUR[9] | April 10–14 2002 | 237 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 30% | 59% | 2% | 10% |
| American Research Group[6] | April 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 51% | – | 16% |
| American Research Group[10] | February 6–10, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | – | 22% |
| University of New Hampshire[11] | January 25 – February 5, 2002 | 230 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 37% | 51% | 4% | 8% |
| American Research Group[12] | January 5, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 27% | 51% | – | 22% |
| American Research Group[13] | November 16–20 2001 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 39% | – | 14% |
| University of New Hampshire[14] | October 19–29, 2001 | 202 (LV) | ± 6.7% | 35% | 53% | 4% | 8% |
| American Research Group[15] | October 16–18, 2001 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
- 50–60%
- 50–60%
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Sununu | 81,920 | 53.35% | |
| Republican | Bob Smith (incumbent) | 68,608 | 44.68% | |
| Total votes | 150,528 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Ken Blevens (Libertarian)
- Jeanne Shaheen, Governor of New Hampshire (Democratic)
- John E. Sununu, U.S. Representative (Republican)
Campaign
During the campaign, there was a major scandal that involved the use of a telemarketing firm hired by that state's Republican Party (NHGOP) for election tampering. The GOP Marketplace, based in Northern Virginia, jammed another phone bank being used by the state Democratic Party and the firefighters' union for efforts to turn out voters on behalf of then-governor Jeanne Shaheen on Election Day. The tampering involved using a call center to jam the phone lines of a Get Out the Vote (GOTV) operation. In the end, 900 calls were made for 45 minutes of disruption to the Democratic-leaning call centers. In addition to criminal prosecutions, disclosures in the case have come from a civil suit filed by the state's Democratic Party against the state's Republican Party (now settled). Four men have been convicted of, or pleaded guilty to, federal crimes and sentenced to prison for their involvement as of 2008[update]. One conviction has been reversed by an appeals court, a decision prosecutors are appealing. James Tobin, freed on appeal, was later indicted on charges of lying to the FBI during the original investigation.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Lean D (flip) | November 4, 2002 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Sununu (R) |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group[18] | November 2–3, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| UNH/CNN/USA Today[19] | October 30 – November 2, 2002 | 644 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 45% | 6%[d] | 2% |
| 47%[e] | 46% | 6%[d] | – | ||||
| Concord Monitor[20] | October 29–31, 2002 | – | – | 46% | 47% | – | 7% |
| American Research Group[21] | October 28–30, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Franklin Pierce College/WNDS-TV[22] | October 27–30, 2002 | 926 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 4%[f] | 10% |
| University of New Hampshire/WMUR[23] | October 23–29, 2002 | 648 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 46% | 4%[f] | 7% |
| American Research Group[24] | October 20–22, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| American Research Group[18] | October 16, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
| University of New Hampshire/WMUR[25] | October 3–10, 2002 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 4%[g] | 5% |
| American Research Group[18] | October 2, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 34% | – | 11% |
| GQR (D)[26] | September 18–19, 2002 | – | – | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| American Research Group[26] | September 14–18, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 38% | – | 15% |
| University of New Hampshire[5] | June 23 – July 1, 2002 | 529 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | 3% | 4% |
| American Research Group[18] | June 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 33% | – | 30% |
| University of New Hampshire[9] | April 10–14, 2002 | 526 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 42% | 2% | 6% |
| American Research Group[18] | March 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 36% | – | 24% |
| University of New Hampshire[11] | January 25 – February 5, 2002 | 554 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 42% | 4% | 6% |
| American Research Group[18] | December 2001 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 29% | – | 32% |
| University of New Hampshire[14] | October 19–29, 2001 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 38% | 3% | 9% |
| American Research Group[18] | September 2001 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 39% | – | 14% |
| American Research Group[18] | July 2001 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 35% | – | 16% |
| American Research Group[18] | June 2001 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 35% | – | 15% |
Bob Smith vs. Jeanne Shaheen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Smith (R) |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[5] | June 23 – July 1, 2002 | 529 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 3% | 4% |
| University of New Hampshire[9] | April 10–14 2002 | 526 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 49% | 5% | 4% |
| University of New Hampshire[11] | January 25 – February 5, 2002 | 558 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 46% | 4% | 6% |
| University of New Hampshire[14] | October 19–29, 2001 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 45% | 5% | 6% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Sununu | 227,229 | 51.12% | +1.87 | |
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen | 207,478 | 46.67% | +0.45% | |
| Libertarian | Ken Blevens | 9,835 | 2.21% | −2.32% | |
| Majority | 19,751 | 4.44% | +1.41% | ||
| Total votes | 444,542 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
Results by county
| County | John E. Sununu Republican |
Jeanne Shaheen Democratic |
Various candidates | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Belknap | 12,658 | 57.7% | 8,765 | 39.9% | 519 | 2.4% | 3,893 | 17.8% | 21,942 |
| Carroll | 10,650 | 55.2% | 8,134 | 42.2% | 503 | 2.5% | 2,516 | 13.0% | 19,287 |
| Cheshire | 10,737 | 41.5% | 14,200 | 54.9% | 918 | 3.6% | -3,463 | -13.4% | 25,855 |
| Coös | 5,055 | 44.6% | 5,957 | 52.6% | 316 | 2.8% | -902 | -8.0% | 11,328 |
| Grafton | 14,081 | 46.7% | 15,266 | 50.7% | 773 | 2.6% | -1,185 | -4.0% | 30,120 |
| Hillsborough | 68,320 | 53.0% | 57,354 | 44.5% | 3,298 | 2.5% | 10,966 | 8.5% | 128,972 |
| Merrimack | 25,263 | 47.2% | 26,898 | 50.3% | 1,366 | 2.5% | -1,635 | -3.1% | 53,527 |
| Rockingham | 55,710 | 54.2% | 43,968 | 42.8% | 3,099 | 3.0% | 11,742 | 3.16% | 102,777 |
| Strafford | 17,418 | 45.0% | 20,109 | 52.0% | 1,149 | 3.0% | -2,691 | -7.0% | 38,676 |
| Sullivan | 7,337 | 50.1% | 6,827 | 46.6% | 487 | 3.3% | 510 | 3.5% | 14,651 |
| Totals | 227,229 | 50.8% | 207,478 | 46.4% | 12,428 | 2.8% | 19,751 | 4.4% | 447,135 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Ken Stremsky with 1%
- "Other/Neither" with 2%; Ken Stremsky with 1%
- Ken Blevens (L) with 4%; "Other" with 2%
- With undecided voters allocated
- Ken Blevens (L) and "Other" with 2%
- Ken Blevens (L) with 1%; "Other" with 3%