2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
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The 2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John E. Sununu ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of the 2002 election. Shaheen's win marked the first time since 1972 that a Democrat won this seat, and made her the first Democratic senator elected from New Hampshire since John A. Durkin's victory in 1975.
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November 4, 2008
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Shaheen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Sununu: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
For a considerable amount of time, New Hampshire had always been considered an island of conservatism in the Northeast. Following the 2006 election, however, many offices were taken over by Democrats: Representatives Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, Governor John Lynch, the majority of the New Hampshire Executive Council, and the majority of both legislative chambers (which had not occurred since 1911).[1] The popularity of Governor Lynch was considered an impediment to Sununu's re-election.[2] Though the state voted for then-Gov. George W. Bush in 2000, Sen. John Kerry narrowly won the state over Bush in 2004.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Jeanne Shaheen, former governor and nominee for the United States Senate in 2002.
- Raymond Stebbins, attorney
Campaign
Astronaut Jay Buckey MD, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and Katrina Swett (wife of former Congressman Richard Swett who ran for this seat in 1996), had announced their candidacies but withdrew in favor of former governor Jeanne Shaheen upon her entrance into the race.[3]
Shaheen had been the Democratic nominee for the race in 2002. Since 2005, Shaheen had served as director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School before leaving on September 14, 2007. She had been aggressively courted to run by Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) on behalf of Senate Democrats, and by a "Draft Shaheen" campaign led by former New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Kathy Sullivan.
The filing deadline for the Democratic and Republican Parties was June 13, 2008. Shaheen filed, as did Raymond Stebbins.[4]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen | 43,968 | 88.5% | |
| Democratic | Raymond Stebbins | 5,281 | 10.6% | |
| Write-in | 407 | 0.8% | ||
| Total votes | 49,656 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Tom Alciere, former state representative[5]
- John E. Sununu, incumbent U.S. Senator
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Sununu (incumbent) | 60,852 | 88.7% | |
| Republican | Tom Alciere | 7,084 | 10.3% | |
| Write-in | 685 | 1.0% | ||
| Total votes | 68,621 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Ken Blevens (L)
- Jeanne Shaheen (D), former governor
- John E. Sununu (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
Campaign
A November 2006 SurveyUSA poll of New Hampshire voters found Sununu had a 47% approval rating.[6] A February 1, 2007 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that only 45% of New Hampshire voters held a favorable opinion of Sununu. In June 2007, a poll by 7NEWS and Suffolk University of likely voters reported that only 31 percent in the poll said Sununu deserved re-election, with 47 percent saying that someone else should get his seat.[7]
A July 2008 Granite State Poll had Sununu's favorability rating at 52%, his unfavorability rating at 33%, and neutral or undecided by 16%.[8] Shaheen is viewed favorable by 53%, unfavorable by 31% and neutral or undecided by 15%.[9]
Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for president, had mentioned Sununu as a possible running mate for the 2008 presidential election, as well as Lindsey Graham, Bob Riley, Steve Forbes and John Thune. Sununu had said he would remain neutral in the New Hampshire primary. However, McCain selected Alaska governor Sarah Palin instead.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Tossup | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[11] | Lean D (flip) | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[12] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[13] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2008 |
Polling
| Source | Date | John Sununu (R) |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Ken Blevens (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group[14] | March 29, 2007 | 34% | 44% | –– | 22% |
| American Research Group[15] | June 2007 | 29% | 57% | –– | 14% |
| Research 2000[16] | July 2007 | 34% | 56% | –– | 10% |
| WMUR-CNN[17] | July 2007 | 38% | 54% | –– | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[18] | September 16, 2007 | 43% | 48% | –– | 9% |
| American Research Group[19] | September 18, 2007 | 41% | 46% | –– | 13% |
| WMUR-CNN[20] | September 2007 | 38% | 54% | –– | 7% |
| SurveyUSA[21] | November 5, 2007 | 42% | 53% | –– | 5% |
| American Research Group[22] | December 20, 2007 | 52% | 41% | –– | 7% |
| Granite State Poll[23] | February 11, 2008 | 37% | 54% | –– | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[24] | February 13, 2008 | 41% | 49% | –– | –– |
| American Research Group[25] | March 20, 2008 | 33% | 47% | –– | 20% |
| Rasmussen Reports[26] | March 21, 2008 | 41% | 49% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports[27] | May 23, 2008 | 43% | 50% | –– | –– |
| American Research Group[28] | June 18, 2008 | 40% | 54% | –– | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | June 20, 2008 | 39% | 53% | –– | –– |
| Granite State Poll[30] | July 20, 2008 | 42% | 46% | –– | 10% |
| American Research Group[31] | July 19, 2008 | 36% | 58% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | July 23, 2008 | 45% | 51% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | August 19, 2008 | 43% | 52% | –– | –– |
| American Research Group[34] | August 18, 2008 | 41% | 52% | –– | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[35] | September 3, 2008 | 44% | 46% | 3% | 5% |
| American Research Group[36] | September 13, 2008 | 40% | 52% | –– | 8% |
| Granite State Poll[37] | September 14, 2008 | 44% | 48% | –– | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[38] | September 23, 2008 | 52% | 45% | 1% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | October 1, 2008 | 45% | 50% | 1% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[40] | October 23, 2008 | 46% | 52% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports[41] | October 30, 2008 | 44% | 52% | –– | –– |
| Survey USA[42] | October 30, 2008 | 40% | 53% | 6% | 2% |
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeanne Shaheen (D) | $8,273,501.00 | $8,225,580.00 | $47,920.00 | $120,630.00 |
| John Sununu (R) | $8,879,307.00 | $8,868,017.00 | $104,187.00 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[43] | ||||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen | 358,438 | 51.62% | +4.95% | |
| Republican | John Sununu (incumbent) | 314,403 | 45.28% | −5.83% | |
| Libertarian | Ken Blevens | 21,516 | 3.10% | +0.89% | |
| Total votes | 694,357 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
By county
| County | Jeanne Shaheen Democratic |
John E. Sununu Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Belknap | 15,931 | 48.3% | 16,166 | 49.0% | 871 | 2.6% | -235 | -0.7% | 32,968 |
| Carroll | 13,428 | 47.3% | 13,965 | 49.2% | 986 | 3.5% | -537 | -1.9% | 28,379 |
| Cheshire | 24,788 | 59.7% | 15,259 | 36.7% | 1,506 | 3.6% | 9,529 | 23.0% | 41,553 |
| Coos | 9,031 | 56.6% | 6,375 | 40.0% | 543 | 3.4% | 2,656 | 16.6% | 15,949 |
| Grafton | 27,797 | 57.5% | 18,957 | 39.2% | 1,580 | 3.3% | 8,840 | 18.3% | 48,334 |
| Hillsborough | 97,734 | 48.8% | 95,646 | 47.8% | 6,763 | 3.3% | 2,088 | 1.0% | 200,143 |
| Merrimack | 42,646 | 54.1% | 33,958 | 43.1% | 2,250 | 2.9% | 8,688 | 11.0% | 78,854 |
| Rockingham | 78,992 | 48.2% | 80,051 | 48.8% | 5,004 | 3.1% | -1,059 | -0.6% | 164,047 |
| Strafford | 36,096 | 57.9% | 24,503 | 39.3% | 1,781 | 2.9% | 11,593 | 18.6% | 62,380 |
| Sullivan | 11,995 | 54.1% | 9,523 | 42.9% | 662 | 3.0% | 2,472 | 13.26% | 22,180 |
| Totals | 358,438 | 51.6% | 314,403 | 45.3% | 21,946 | 3.2% | 44,035 | 6.3% | 694,787 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester)
- Sullivan (largest municipality: Claremont)