2006 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont
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The 2006 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont was held on November 7, 2006, for representation of Vermont's at-large congressional district in the United States House of Representatives from January 3, 2007, to January 3, 2009.
November 7, 2006
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Welch: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Rainville: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Trudell: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Congressman Bernie Sanders, an independent member of Congress who caucused with the Democrats, did not seek a ninth term in the House, instead running successfully for the United States Senate.
To replace Congressman Sanders, Democrat Peter Welch defeated Republican Martha Rainville by a somewhat narrow margin (just under 10%) in staunchly-liberal Vermont. As of 2022, this is the last federal election in which a Republican received more than a third of the vote.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Peter Welch, State Senate President pro tempore, nominee for Governor in 1990, and candidate for this seat in 1988
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Peter Welch | 34,706 | 97.11 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 1,033 | 2.89 | |
| Total votes | 35,739 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Martha Rainville, former Vermont National Guard Adjutant General
- Mark Shepard, State Senator
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Martha Rainville | 26,199 | 71.31 | |
| Republican | Mark Shepard | 10,285 | 27.99 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 258 | 0.70 | |
| Total votes | 36,742 | 100.00 | ||
Third-party and independent candidates
Declined
- David Zuckerman, member of the Vermont House of Representatives, farmer, businessman, environmentalist (Progressive Party)[2][3][4]
General election
Polling
| Source | Date | Peter Welch (D) |
Martha Rainville (R) |
Jane Newton (LU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000[5] | October 23–24, 2006 | 51% | 41% | |
| Greenburg Quinlan[6] | October 8–9, 2006 | 52% | 41% | |
| Research 2000[7] | September 18–19, 2006 | 45% | 39% | |
| American Research Group[8] | September 14, 2006 | 48% | 45% | 2% |
| American Research Group[8] | July 27, 2006 | 41% | 42% | |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[9] | Lean D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Rothenberg[10] | Likely D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Likely D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Real Clear Politics[12] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2006 |
| CQ Politics[13] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2006 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Peter Welch | 139,815 | 53.22% | |||
| Republican | Martha Rainville | 117,023 | 44.54% | |||
| Independent | Dennis Morrisseau | 1,390 | 0.53% | |||
| Independent | Jerry Trudell | 1,013 | 0.39% | |||
| Green | Bruce R. Marshall | 994 | 0.38% | |||
| Independent | Keith Stern | 963 | 0.37% | |||
| Liberty Union | Jane Newton | 721 | 0.27% | |||
| Independent | Chris Karr | 599 | 0.23% | |||
| Write-ins | 208 | 0.08% | ||||
| Total votes | 262,726 | 100.00 | ||||
| Democratic gain from Independent | ||||||
By county
| County[15] | Peter Welch Democratic |
Martha Rainville Republican |
All others | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Addison | 8,784 | 53.7% | 7,252 | 44.4% | 313 | 2.0% | 1,532 | 9.3% | 16,349 |
| Bennington | 7,915 | 55.3% | 5,412 | 37.8% | 997 | 6.0% | 2,503 | 17.5% | 14,324 |
| Caledonia | 5,400 | 44.3% | 6,502 | 53.4% | 275 | 2.2% | -1,102 | -9.1% | 12,177 |
| Chittenden | 36,965 | 55.7% | 28,630 | 43.1% | 800 | 1.3% | 8,335 | 12.6% | 66,395 |
| Essex | 970 | 38.2% | 1,466 | 57.8% | 100 | 3.9% | -496 | -19.6% | 2,536 |
| Franklin | 7,388 | 41.9% | 10,018 | 56.9% | 210 | 1.2% | -2,630 | -15.0% | 17,616 |
| Grand Isle | 1,644 | 44.6% | 2,005 | 54.4% | 37 | 1.0% | -361 | -9.8% | 3,686 |
| Lamoille | 5,565 | 53.1% | 4,726 | 45.1% | 182 | 1.7% | 839 | 8.0% | 10,473 |
| Orange | 6,452 | 51.8% | 5,767 | 46.3% | 232 | 1.9% | 685 | 5.5% | 12,451 |
| Orleans | 4,665 | 44.9% | 5,520 | 53.2% | 200 | 1.9% | -855 | -8.3% | 10,385 |
| Rutland | 12,245 | 47.8% | 12,847 | 50.2% | 518 | 2.0% | -602 | -2.4% | 25,610 |
| Washington | 15,223 | 55.8% | 11,582 | 42.5% | 462 | 1.7% | 3,641 | 13.3% | 27,267 |
| Windham | 11,778 | 63.6% | 5,806 | 31.4% | 922 | 5.0% | 5,972 | 32.2% | 18,506 |
| Windsor | 14,821 | 59.4% | 9,490 | 38.0% | 640 | 2.5% | 5,331 | 21.4% | 24,951 |
| Totals | 139,815 | 53.2% | 117,023 | 44.5% | 5,888 | 2.2% | 22,792 | 8.7% | 262,726 |
Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic
- Addison (largest municipality: Middlebury)
- Bennington (largest municipality: Bennington)
- Chittenden (largest municipality: Burlington)
- Lamoille (largest municipality: Morristown)
- Orange (Largest city: Randolph)
- Washington (largest municipality: Barre)
- Windham (largest municipality: Brattleboro)
- Windsor (largest municipality: Hartford)
Counties that flipped from Independent to Republican
- Rutland (largest municipality: Rutland)
- Grand Isle (largest municipality: Alburgh)
- Caledonia (largest municipality: St. Johnsbury)
- Orleans (largest municipality: Derby)
- Essex (Largest city: Lunenburg)
- Franklin (Largest city: St. Albans)