2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky
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The 2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 4, 2008. Minority Leader and incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell won re-election to a fifth term. Although Barack Obama lost Kentucky by a 16.22% margin to John McCain in the concurrent presidential election, McConnell more narrowly kept his seat with a 5.94% margin against businessman Bruce Lunsford. This was a greatly reduced margin from when he won re-election in 2002 with a 29.4% margin. John McCain outperformed McConnell by 4.4%, while Bruce Lunsford outperformed Obama by 5.88%.
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November 4, 2008
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  McConnell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Lunsford: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
In 2007 Kentucky's unpopular Republican Governor, Ernie Fletcher, lost his re-election bid. The Democrats took control of both Houses of Congress in the 2006 mid-term elections and in October Chuck Schumer acknowledged they were aiming for McConnell's seat.[1]
State auditor Crit Luallen was considered a top contender for the Democratic nomination, but she decided to remain as auditor.[2] Lunsford was asked to run by Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear.[3] Seven candidates competed for the Democratic Primary nomination. The primaries for both parties took place on May 20, 2008, in which Lunsford took more than 50%.
Republican primary
Candidates
- Daniel Essek
- Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 168,127 | 86.09% | |
| Republican | Daniel Essek | 27,170 | 13.91% | |
| Total votes | 195,297 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Michael Cassaro
- Greg Fischer, businessman
- Bruce Lunsford, former Kentucky Secretary of Commerce and candidate for Governor in 2003 and 2007
- James Rice
- Kenneth Stepp
- David Williams
- David Wylie
Results
Lunsford
- <40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Fischer
- <40%
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bruce Lunsford | 316,992 | 51.15% | |
| Democratic | Greg Fischer | 209,827 | 33.85% | |
| Democratic | David L. Williams | 34,363 | 5.54% | |
| Democratic | James E. Rice | 20,403 | 3.29% | |
| Democratic | Michael Cassaro | 17,340 | 2.80% | |
| Democratic | Kenneth Stepp | 13,451 | 2.17% | |
| Democratic | David Wylie | 7,528 | 1.21% | |
| Total votes | 619,904 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Bruce Lunsford (D), businessman
- Mitch McConnell (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
Campaign
In October Lunsford and McConnell were statistically tied in the polls. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said "If Lunsford is actually doing this well, its got to be because the public is so upset by the economic meltdown and may be blaming the legislative leaders."[6]
A debate scheduled for October 7 hosted by the League of Women Voters was canceled when incumbent McConnell decided not to participate even though Lunsford announced he wanted to debate.[7]
On November 2, 2008, media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal noted that the website of The New Republic had reported that anti-McConnell flyers questioning the senator's sexuality as well as the reasons for his 1967 military discharge were being distributed in Kentucky.[8][9]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Lean R | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[11] | Lean R | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[12] | Lean R | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[13] | Tossup | November 1, 2008 |
Polling
| Poll Source | Dates administered | Lunsford | McConnell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voter/Consumer Research[14] | January 6–8, 2008 | 37% | 52% |
| Research 2000/ Lexington Herald-Leader/ WKYT-TV[15] |
May 7–9, 2008 | 36% | 48% |
| Voter/Consumer Research[16] | May 21–22, 2008 | 39% | 50% |
| Rasmussen Reports[17] | May 22, 2008 | 49% | 44% |
| Survey USA[18] | June 13–16, 2008 | 46% | 50% |
| Voter/Consumer Research[19] | June 15–17, 2008 | 39% | 50% |
| Rasmussen Reports[20] | June 25, 2008 | 41% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | July 29, 2008 | 42% | 52% |
| Survey USA[22] | August 11, 2008 | 40% | 52% |
| Voter/Consumer Research[23] | September 7–9, 2008 | 35% | 52% |
| Research 2000 for Daily Kos[24] | September 15–17, 2008 | 37% | 50% |
| SurveyUSA[25] | September 21–22, 2008 | 46% | 49% |
| Rasmussen Reports[26] | September 30, 2008 | 42% | 51% |
| SurveyUSA[27] | October 20, 2008 | 48% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports[28] | October 21, 2008 | 43% | 50% |
| Research 2000/ Lexington Herald-Leader/ WKYT-TV[29] |
October 22, 2008 | 43% | 47% |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | October 29, 2008 | 44% | 51% |
| Survey USA[31] | November 1, 2008 | 45% | 53% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 953,816 | 52.97% | −11.7% | |
| Democratic | Bruce Lunsford | 847,005 | 47.03% | +11.7% | |
| Total votes | 1,800,821 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County[33] | Precincts | Reporting | Lunsford | % Lunsford | McConnell | % McConnell | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adair | 16 | 16 | 2,198 | 30.88% | 4,920 | 69.12% | 7,118 (R) |
| Allen | 13 | 13 | 2,331 | 31.85% | 4,987 | 68.15% | 7,318 (R) |
| Anderson | 14 | 14 | 4,787 | 46.27% | 5,558 | 53.73% | 10,345 (R) |
| Ballard | 13 | 13 | 1,893 | 46.68% | 2,162 | 53.32% | 4,055 (R) |
| Barren | 24 | 24 | 6,735 | 41.15% | 9,630 | 58.85% | 16,365 (R) |
| Bath | 12 | 12 | 2,747 | 61.36% | 1,730 | 38.64% | 4,477 (D) |
| Bell | 33 | 33 | 3,494 | 38.83% | 5,505 | 61.17% | 8,999 (R) |
| Boone | 60 | 60 | 15,224 | 30.75% | 34,285 | 69.25% | 49,509 (R) |
| Bourbon | 18 | 18 | 4,325 | 52.26% | 3,951 | 47.74% | 8,276 (D) |
| Boyd | 47 | 47 | 11,174 | 54.23% | 9,430 | 45.77% | 20,604 (D) |
| Boyle | 25 | 25 | 5,854 | 46.90% | 6,627 | 53.10% | 12,481 (R) |
| Bracken | 8 | 8 | 1,382 | 41.17% | 1,975 | 58.83% | 3,357 (R) |
| Breathitt | 21 | 21 | 3,111 | 61.41% | 1,955 | 38.59% | 5,066 (D) |
| Breckinridge | 15 | 15 | 3,736 | 44.02% | 4,752 | 55.98% | 8,488 (R) |
| Bullitt | 44 | 44 | 12,501 | 41.85% | 17,368 | 58.15% | 29,869 (R) |
| Butler | 12 | 12 | 1,771 | 33.59% | 3,501 | 66.41% | 5,272 (R) |
| Caldwell | 13 | 13 | 2,821 | 46.30% | 3,272 | 53.70% | 6,093 (R) |
| Calloway | 30 | 30 | 6,870 | 45.39% | 8,266 | 54.61% | 15,136 (R) |
| Campbell | 66 | 66 | 14,789 | 37.55% | 24,591 | 62.45% | 39,380 (R) |
| Carlisle | 6 | 6 | 1,220 | 46.51% | 1,403 | 53.49% | 2,623 (R) |
| Carroll | 11 | 11 | 2,157 | 57.23% | 1,612 | 42.77% | 3,769 (D) |
| Carter | 23 | 23 | 5,220 | 53.74% | 4,494 | 46.26% | 9,714 (D) |
| Casey | 15 | 15 | 1,783 | 30.55% | 4,053 | 69.45% | 5,836 (R) |
| Christian | 44 | 44 | 9,030 | 40.79% | 13,109 | 59.21% | 22,139 (R) |
| Clark | 26 | 26 | 7,436 | 48.49% | 7,898 | 51.51% | 15,334 (R) |
| Clay | 20 | 20 | 2,458 | 33.85% | 4,804 | 66.15% | 7,262 (R) |
| Clinton | 13 | 13 | 1,029 | 25.42% | 3,019 | 74.58% | 4,048 (R) |
| Crittenden | 12 | 12 | 1,615 | 41.59% | 2,268 | 58.41% | 3,883 (R) |
| Cumberland | 9 | 9 | 763 | 28.62% | 1,903 | 71.38% | 2,666 (R) |
| Daviess | 84 | 84 | 20,779 | 47.94% | 22,563 | 52.06% | 43,342 (R) |
| Edmonson | 10 | 10 | 1,996 | 38.06% | 3,249 | 61.94% | 5,245 (R) |
| Elliott | 7 | 7 | 1,830 | 71.99% | 712 | 28.01% | 2,542 (R) |
| Estill | 15 | 15 | 2,162 | 41.36% | 3,065 | 58.64% | 5,227 (R) |
| Fayette | 274 | 274 | 68,029 | 54.15% | 57,605 | 45.85% | 125,634 (R) |
| Fleming | 18 | 18 | 2,845 | 50.04% | 2,841 | 49.96% | 5,686 (D) |
| Floyd | 42 | 42 | 10,105 | 64.35% | 5,598 | 35.65% | 15,703 (D) |
| Franklin | 44 | 44 | 13,888 | 59.00% | 9,651 | 41.00% | 23,539 (R) |
| Fulton | 13 | 13 | 1,456 | 53.49% | 1,266 | 46.51% | 2,722 (D) |
| Gallatin | 8 | 8 | 1,435 | 45.66% | 1,708 | 54.34% | 3,143 (R) |
| Garrard | 13 | 13 | 2,858 | 40.11% | 4,268 | 59.89% | 7,126 (R) |
| Grant | 23 | 23 | 3,408 | 39.33% | 5,257 | 60.67% | 8,665 (R) |
| Graves | 30 | 30 | 7,839 | 48.76% | 8,239 | 51.24% | 16,078 (R) |
| Grayson | 23 | 23 | 3,863 | 39.23% | 5,983 | 60.77% | 9,846 (R) |
| Green | 10 | 10 | 1,777 | 35.73% | 3,197 | 64.27% | 4,974 (R) |
| Greenup | 32 | 32 | 8,258 | 52.83% | 7,374 | 47.17% | 15,632 (D) |
| Hancock | 10 | 10 | 2,298 | 56.09% | 1,799 | 43.91% | 4,097 (D) |
| Hardin | 55 | 55 | 17,318 | 43.68% | 22,326 | 56.32% | 39,644 (R) |
| Harlan | 35 | 35 | 4,440 | 45.92% | 5,229 | 54.08% | 9,669 (R) |
| Harrison | 17 | 17 | 3,814 | 50.47% | 3,743 | 49.53% | 7,557 (D) |
| Hart | 19 | 19 | 2,962 | 44.60% | 3,680 | 55.40% | 6,642 (R) |
| Henderson | 42 | 42 | 11,048 | 56.06% | 8,659 | 43.94% | 19,707 (D) |
| Henry | 20 | 20 | 3,194 | 46.52% | 3,672 | 53.48% | 6,866 (R) |
| Hickman | 6 | 6 | 1,049 | 47.49% | 1,160 | 52.51% | 2,209 (R) |
| Hopkins | 40 | 40 | 8,481 | 44.87% | 10,419 | 55.13% | 18,900 (R) |
| Jackson | 14 | 14 | 1,245 | 24.71% | 3,794 | 75.29% | 5,039 (R) |
| Jefferson | 515 | 515 | 195,401 | 55.73% | 155,241 | 44.27% | 350,642 (D) |
| Jessamine | 37 | 37 | 7,847 | 39.60% | 11,969 | 60.40% | 19,816 (R) |
| Johnson | 31 | 31 | 3,252 | 38.81% | 5,128 | 61.19% | 8,380 (R) |
| Kenton | 108 | 108 | 19,217 | 36.26% | 33,787 | 63.74% | 53,004 (R) |
| Knott | 30 | 30 | 3,477 | 62.14% | 2,118 | 37.86% | 5,595 (D) |
| Knox | 30 | 30 | 4,329 | 39.01% | 6,767 | 60.99% | 11,096 (R) |
| LaRue | 12 | 12 | 2,523 | 41.97% | 3,489 | 58.03% | 6,012 (R) |
| Laurel | 45 | 45 | 6,850 | 31.15% | 15,138 | 68.85% | 21,988 (R) |
| Lawrence | 18 | 18 | 2,641 | 47.47% | 2,923 | 52.53% | 5,564 (R) |
| Lee | 10 | 10 | 1,073 | 39.77% | 1,625 | 60.23% | 2,698 (R) |
| Leslie | 17 | 17 | 1,083 | 25.15% | 3,224 | 74.85% | 4,307 (R) |
| Letcher | 32 | 32 | 4,198 | 51.82% | 3,903 | 48.18% | 8,101 (D) |
| Lewis | 14 | 14 | 1,787 | 38.26% | 2,884 | 61.74% | 4,671 (R) |
| Lincoln | 17 | 17 | 4,119 | 45.47% | 4,939 | 54.53% | 9,058 (R) |
| Livingston | 10 | 10 | 2,142 | 47.35% | 2,382 | 52.65% | 4,524 (R) |
| Logan | 20 | 20 | 4,379 | 40.70% | 6,379 | 59.30% | 10,758 (R) |
| Lyon | 6 | 6 | 1,821 | 47.80% | 1,989 | 52.20% | 3,810 (R) |
| McCracken | 54 | 54 | 13,006 | 42.91% | 17,303 | 57.09% | 30,309 (D) |
| McCreary | 18 | 18 | 1,576 | 30.41% | 3,606 | 69.59% | 5,182 (R) |
| McLean | 8 | 8 | 2,225 | 50.55% | 2,177 | 49.45% | 4,402 (D) |
| Madison | 56 | 56 | 14,657 | 45.96% | 17,237 | 54.04% | 31,894 (R) |
| Magoffin | 14 | 14 | 2,719 | 58.81% | 1,904 | 41.19% | 4,623 (D) |
| Marion | 17 | 17 | 4,304 | 57.68% | 3,158 | 42.32% | 7,462 (D) |
| Marshall | 25 | 25 | 7,463 | 48.94% | 7,785 | 51.06% | 15,248 (R) |
| Martin | 14 | 14 | 1,203 | 33.19% | 2,422 | 66.81% | 3,625 (R) |
| Mason | 20 | 20 | 3,095 | 44.58% | 3,847 | 55.42% | 6,942 (R) |
| Meade | 18 | 18 | 5,149 | 46.58% | 5,905 | 53.42% | 11,054 (R) |
| Menifee | 6 | 6 | 1,520 | 61.51% | 951 | 38.49% | 2,471 (D) |
| Mercer | 17 | 17 | 4,338 | 44.17% | 5,484 | 55.83% | 9,822 (R) |
| Metcalfe | 12 | 12 | 1,766 | 44.03% | 2,245 | 55.97% | 4,011 (R) |
| Monroe | 12 | 12 | 1,237 | 27.16% | 3,318 | 72.84% | 4,555 (R) |
| Montgomery | 18 | 18 | 5,526 | 54.25% | 4,660 | 45.75% | 10,186 (D) |
| Morgan | 12 | 12 | 2,475 | 57.03% | 1,865 | 42.97% | 4,340 (D) |
| Muhlenberg | 26 | 26 | 7,436 | 57.90% | 5,406 | 42.10% | 12,842 (R) |
| Nelson | 26 | 26 | 8,823 | 49.60% | 8,965 | 50.40% | 17,788 (R) |
| Nicholas | 5 | 5 | 1,737 | 59.47% | 1,184 | 40.53% | 2,921 (D) |
| Ohio | 25 | 25 | 4,664 | 47.08% | 5,242 | 52.92% | 9,906 (R) |
| Oldham | 34 | 34 | 10,204 | 35.25% | 18,744 | 64.75% | 28,948 (R) |
| Owen | 13 | 13 | 2,019 | 42.93% | 2,684 | 57.07% | 4,703 (R) |
| Owsley | 8 | 8 | 559 | 34.46% | 1,063 | 65.54% | 1,622 (R) |
| Pendleton | 12 | 12 | 2,155 | 37.97% | 3,520 | 62.03% | 5,675 (R) |
| Perry | 37 | 37 | 5,026 | 49.10% | 5,211 | 50.90% | 10,237 (R) |
| Pike | 57 | 57 | 12,912 | 57.16% | 9,679 | 42.84% | 22,591 (D) |
| Powell | 11 | 11 | 2,863 | 57.91% | 2,081 | 42.09% | 4,944 (D) |
| Pulaski | 57 | 57 | 8,108 | 32.20% | 17,072 | 67.80% | 25,180 (R) |
| Robertson | 5 | 5 | 498 | 49.21% | 514 | 50.79% | 1,012 (R) |
| Rockcastle | 14 | 14 | 1,837 | 30.55% | 4,177 | 69.45% | 6,014 (R) |
| Rowan | 18 | 18 | 4,710 | 58.71% | 3,312 | 41.29% | 8,022 (D) |
| Russell | 16 | 16 | 2,450 | 33.67% | 4,827 | 66.33% | 7,277 (R) |
| Scott | 35 | 35 | 9,238 | 47.36% | 10,267 | 52.64% | 19,505 (R) |
| Shelby | 33 | 33 | 7,546 | 41.15% | 10,790 | 58.85% | 18,336 (R) |
| Simpson | 13 | 13 | 3,118 | 44.29% | 3,922 | 55.71% | 7,040 (R) |
| Spencer | 11 | 11 | 3,159 | 39.64% | 4,811 | 60.36% | 7,970 (R) |
| Taylor | 20 | 20 | 4,163 | 38.52% | 6,644 | 61.48% | 10,807 (R) |
| Todd | 13 | 13 | 1,772 | 36.89% | 3,032 | 63.11% | 4,804 (R) |
| Trigg | 14 | 14 | 2,637 | 40.76% | 3,833 | 59.24% | 6,470 (R) |
| Trimble | 12 | 12 | 1,927 | 50.87% | 1,861 | 49.13% | 3,788 (D) |
| Union | 16 | 16 | 3,335 | 55.46% | 2,678 | 44.54% | 6,013 (D) |
| Warren | 63 | 63 | 19,162 | 43.84% | 24,547 | 56.16% | 43,709 (R) |
| Washington | 14 | 14 | 2,316 | 45.04% | 2,826 | 54.96% | 5,142 (R) |
| Wayne | 19 | 19 | 3,045 | 43.30% | 3,987 | 56.70% | 7,032 (R) |
| Webster | 14 | 14 | 3,000 | 54.39% | 2,516 | 45.61% | 5,516 (D) |
| Whitley | 36 | 36 | 4,849 | 36.37% | 8,484 | 63.63% | 13,333 (R) |
| Wolfe | 8 | 8 | 1,886 | 62.74% | 1,120 | 37.26% | 3,006 (D) |
| Woodford | 16 | 16 | 5,903 | 48.65% | 6,231 | 51.35% | 12,134 (R) |
- Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Bourbon (Largest city: Paris)
- Carroll (Largest city: Carrollton)
- Carter (Largest city: Grayson)
- Hancock (Largest city: Hawesville)
- Magoffin (Largest city: Salyersville)
- Trimble (Largest city: Bedford)
- Webster (Largest city: Providence)
- McLean (Largest city: Livermore)
- Morgan (Largest city: West Liberty)
- Harrison (Largest city: Cynthiana)
- Henderson (Largest city: Henderson)
- Letcher (Largest city: Jenkins)
- Muhlenberg (Largest city: Central City)
- Greenup (Largest city: Flatwoods)
- Fulton (Largest city: Fulton)
- Fleming (Largest city: Flemingsburg)
- Lincoln (Largest city: Stanford)
- Bath (Largest city: Owingsville)
- Fayette (Largest city: Lexington)
- Marion (Largest city: Lebanon)
- Menifee (Largest city: Frenchburg)
- Nicholas (Largest city: Carlisle)
- Rowan (Largest city: Morehead)
- Franklin (Largest city: Frankfort)
- Jefferson (Largest city: Louisville)
By congressional district
McConnell won four of six congressional districts.[34]
| District | McConnell | Lunsford | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 56% | 44% | Ed Whitfield |
| 2nd | 56% | 44% | Ron Lewis (110th Congress) |
| Brett Guthrie (111th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 44% | 56% | John Yarmuth |
| 4th | 59% | 41% | Geoff Davis |
| 5th | 56% | 44% | Hal Rogers |
| 6th | 49% | 51% | Ben Chandler |