2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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November 4, 2014
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| Turnout | 46.27% | ||||||||||||||||
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    McConnell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Grimes: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, ran for re-election to a sixth term.[1] He faced Democratic nominee and Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes and Libertarian nominee David Patterson in the general election.
The race was initially seen as a possible pickup opportunity for Democrats, largely due to McConnell's unpopularity among Kentucky voters.[2] By election day, however, both The Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report considered Republicans to be favored.[3][4] McConnell ultimately defeated Grimes by a landslide margin[5] of 56.2% to 40.7%.
Republican primary
Immediately after a secret recording of Mitch McConnell and his campaign staff was released to Mother Jones, McConnell expressed concerns about what he saw as a threat from the left. David Adams, a Kentucky Tea Party activist who was seeking a Republican opponent to McConnell, told The New York Times that McConnell's fears about "threats from the left" were misplaced. Adams said: "It's going to come from the right. The fact that he's coming unglued about this thing should make clear to observers that he may not be ready for the challenge that lies ahead."[6]
McConnell won the primary with 60.2% of the vote.[7] According to analysis by the University of Minnesota, this is the lowest voter support for a Kentucky U.S. senator in a primary by either party since 1938.[8]
Candidates
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Declared
- Matt Bevin, businessman[9]
- Brad Copas, former National Guardsman[10]
- Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. senator[1]
- Chris Payne, party promoter[10][11]
- Shawna Sterling, doctoral student[12][13][14]
Withdrew
Declined
- Andy Barr, U.S. representative[17][18]
- Ernie Fletcher, former governor of Kentucky and former U.S. representative[19]
- Brett Guthrie, U.S. representative[20]
- John Kemper, candidate for state auditor in 2011[21][22]
- Thomas Massie, U.S. representative[23]
Endorsements
Matt Bevin
Public figures
- Wendy Caswell, founder and president of the Louisville Tea Party[24]
- Mandy Connell, conservative talk radio personality [25]
- Tom Dupree, WLAP Radio host[26]
- Larry Forgy, former Republican national committeeman and 1995 Republican nominee for Governor of Kentucky[27]
- John Kemper, former Republican nominee for Kentucky State Auditor and conservative activist[22]
- Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host[28]
- Angela Minter, executive director of Sisters for Life[29]
Organizations
- FreedomWorks[30]
- Gun Owners of America[31]
- Louisville Tea Party[32]
- Madison Project PAC[33]
- Northern Kentucky Right to Life[34]
- Republican Liberty Caucus[35]
- Right Wing News[36]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[37]
- Take Back Kentucky[38]
- Tea Party Patriots[39]
- United Kentucky Tea Party[40]
Mitch McConnell
Elected officials
- James Comer, Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture[41]
- Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas and candidate for President of the United States in 2008[42]
- Anne Northup, former U.S. representative (R-KY)[43]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator (R-KY)[44]
- Rick Perry, governor of Texas and 2012 presidential candidate[45]
- Pat Toomey, U.S. senator (R-PA)[46]
Organizations
- American Chemistry Council[47]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[48][49]
- TheTeaParty.net[50]
Declined to endorse
Elected officials
- Ernie Fletcher, former governor of Kentucky and former U.S. representative[19]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell |
Matt Bevin |
Brad Copas |
Chris Payne |
Shawna Sterling |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wenzel Strategies[51] | July 23–24, 2013 | 302 | ± 5.6% | 58.9% | 19.9% | — | — | — | 21.2% |
| Voter/Consumer Research ^[52] | August 18–20, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 68% | 21% | — | — | — | 8% |
| Lake Research Partners[53] | October 24–29, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | 50% | 17% | — | — | — | 33% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | December 12–15, 2013 | 540 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 26% | — | — | — | 21% |
| Gravis Marketing[55] | January 2, 2014 | 683 | ± 4% | 53% | 31% | — | — | — | 16% |
| Bluegrass Poll[56] | January 30 – February 4, 2014 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 55% | 29% | — | — | — | 15% |
| Wenzel Strategies[57] | February 8–11, 2014 | 377 | ± 5.03% | 58.5% | 17.4% | — | — | — | 24.1% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[58] | February 24–26, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 61% | 23% | — | — | — | 16% |
| Gravis Marketing[59] | April 15–17, 2014 | 638 | ± 4% | 51% | 34% | — | — | — | 15% |
| NBC News/Marist[60] | April 30 – May 6, 2014 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 55% | 22% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 17% |
| Gravis Marketing[61] | May 12, 2014 | 629 | ± 4% | 48% | 34% | — | — | — | 18% |
| Bluegrass Poll[62] | May 14–16, 2014 | 605 | ± 4% | 55% | 35% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
- ^ Internal poll for Mitch McConnell campaign
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell |
Someone more conservative |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 395 | ± 4.9% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | April 5–7, 2013 | 320 | ± 5.5% | 46% | 32% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | December 12–15, 2013 | 540 | ± 4.2% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell |
John Calipari |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[55] | January 2, 2014 | 683 | ± 4% | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell |
Thomas Massie |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 395 | ± 4.9% | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | April 5–7, 2013 | 320 | ± 5.5% | 56% | 18% | 27% |
Results
McConnell
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Bevin
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 213,753 | 60.19% | |
| Republican | Matt Bevin | 125,787 | 35.42% | |
| Republican | Shawna Sterling | 7,214 | 2.03% | |
| Republican | Chris Payne | 5,338 | 1.51% | |
| Republican | Brad Copas | 3,024 | 0.85% | |
| Total votes | 355,116 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
In late 2012 and early 2013, media speculation focused on the possibility of a challenge to incumbent Mitch McConnell from actress and Tennessee resident Ashley Judd,[66] who was raised in Kentucky. Judd later announced that she would not seek the Democratic nomination. On April 9, Mother Jones magazine released a tape of a private meeting between McConnell and, allegedly, his aides reviewing opposition research and tactics to use against Judd. At the February strategy session, McConnell referred to the early stages of his re-election bid as the "Whac-A-Mole period of the campaign," and he and aides discussed attacking Judd's religious views as well as her struggle with depression.[67][68]
Alison Lundergan Grimes, the sitting secretary of state, entered the primary race with the encouragement of former president Bill Clinton, a friend of Grimes's father, former Kentucky politician Jerry Lundergan.[69] On May 20, 2014, she won the Democratic primary with 77% of the vote.[70][71] Her father's involvement in the campaign was noted as a factor in the race because of his personal political history and fundraising connections.[72][73]
Candidates
Declared
- Burrel Farnsley, perennial candidate[10][74]
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State of Kentucky[75]
- Greg Leichty, professor at the University of Louisville[76]
- Tom Recktenwald, former Catholic school teacher[10]
Withdrew
- Ed Marksberry, contractor and nominee for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district in 2010 (ran as an independent before dropping out entirely)[77][78]
Declined
- Jerry Abramson, lieutenant governor of Kentucky and former mayor of Louisville[79]
- Matthew Barzun, United States ambassador to the United Kingdom and former United States ambassador to Sweden[80]
- Steve Beshear, Governor of Kentucky[81]
- John Young Brown III, former secretary of state of Kentucky and candidate for lieutenant governor of Kentucky in 2007[82]
- Ben Chandler, former U.S. representative[82][83][84]
- Jack Conway, attorney general of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[85]
- Adam Edelen, state auditor of Kentucky[86]
- Greg Fischer, mayor of Louisville[87]
- Tom FitzGerald, executive director of the Kentucky Resources Council[88]
- Heather French Henry, former Miss America[89]
- Bill Garmer, attorney, former chairman of the Kentucky Democratic Party[90]
- Gill Holland, film producer and environmental activist[82]
- Ashley Judd, actress and political activist[91]
- Crit Luallen, former state auditor[92]
- Daniel Mongiardo, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004[93]
- Dennis Parrett, state senator[20]
- Greg Stumbo, speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives and former attorney general of Kentucky[94]
- John Yarmuth, U.S. representative[95]
Endorsements
Alison Lundergan Grimes
Elected officials
- Jerry Abramson, lieutenant governor of Kentucky and former mayor of Louisville[96]
- Steve Beshear, governor of Kentucky[97]
- Julian Carroll, state senator and former governor of Kentucky[97]
- Bill Clinton, former president of the United States[98]
- Hillary Clinton, former U.S. secretary of state
- Martha Layne Collins, former governor of Kentucky[97]
- Jack Conway, former attorney general of Kentucky
- Greg Fischer, mayor of Louisville
- Wendell Ford, former U.S. senator and former governor of Kentucky[98][99]
- Terry McAuliffe, governor of Virginia[100]
- Paul E. Patton, former governor of Kentucky[101]
- Jody Richards, state representative and former speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives[101]
- Debbie Stabenow, U.S. senator from Michigan[102]
- Greg Stumbo, speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives and former attorney general of Kentucky[98]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts[103]
- John Yarmuth, U.S. representative[98]
Newspapers
Public figures
- Madeleine Albright, former United States secretary of state and former United States ambassador to the United Nations[104]
- James Carville, political commentator and media personality[105]
- Heather French Henry, former Miss America[106]
- Ashley Judd, actress and political activist[107]
- Jeffrey Katzenberg, CEO of DreamWorks Animation[108]
- Lilly Ledbetter, activist and namesake of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009[109]
- will.i.am, hip-hop artist[110]
Organizations
- American Sunrise PAC[111]
- Council for a Livable World[112]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[113]
- EMILY's List[114]
- Kentucky Education Association[115]
- Kentucky Professional Firefighters Association[116]
- Kentucky State AFL-CIO[117]
- National Education Association[115]
- United Mine Workers of America[118]
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jerry Abramson |
Matthew Barzun |
Jack Conway |
Adam Edelen |
Greg Fischer |
Alison Lundergan Grimes |
Ashley Judd |
John Yarmuth |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 585 | ± 4.1% | 16% | 1% | 15% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 29% | 9% | — | 15% |
Results
Grimes
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alison Lundergan Grimes | 307,821 | 76.47% | |
| Democratic | Greg Leichty | 32,602 | 8.10% | |
| Democratic | Burrel Farnsley | 32,310 | 8.03% | |
| Democratic | Tom Recktenwald | 29,791 | 7.40% | |
| Total votes | 402,524 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- David Patterson, police officer[119]
Results
Patterson won the Libertarian primary on March 1, 2014. While he ran unopposed, all Libertarian Party candidates must defeat "none of the above" (NOTA) in the primary operated by the Libertarian Party of Kentucky.[120] He became an official ballot-listed candidate on August 11 after submitting over 9,100 signatures.[121]
Independents
Candidates
Declared
Withdrew
- Ed Marksberry, contractor and Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district in 2010[78][126]
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 13, 2014
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[127] | Lean R | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[128] | Likely R | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[129] | Likely R | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[130] | Lean R | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) |
David Patterson (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 1,266 | ± 2.8% | 47% | 40% | — | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | April 5–7, 2013 | 1,052 | ± 3% | 45% | 41% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[131] | May 23–24, 2013 | 556 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 45% | — | — | 10% |
| Wenzel Strategies[132] | June 1–2, 2013 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 40% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[133] | July 19–21, 2013 | 1,210 | ± 2.8% | 44% | 45% | — | — | 11% |
| Wenzel Strategies[51] | July 23–24, 2013 | 624 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 40% | — | — | 12% |
| Lake Research Partners[134] | August 5–15, 2013 | 5,000 | ± 1.4% | 40% | 46% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[135] | October 14–15, 2013 | 1,193 | ± 2.8% | 43% | 45% | — | — | 12% |
| Lake Research Partners[53] | October 24–29, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | 37% | 37% | — | 6% | 19% |
| DFM Research[136] | October 21–29, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 40% | — | — | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | December 12–15, 2013 | 1,509 | ± 2.5% | 43% | 42% | — | — | 15% |
| Gravis Marketing[137] | January 2, 2014 | 1,153 | ± 4% | 42% | 37% | — | 8%[138] | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[139] | January 24–26, 2014 | 882 | ± ?% | 45% | 44% | — | — | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[140] | January 29–30, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 42% | — | 6% | 10% |
| Bluegrass Poll[56] | January 30 – February 4, 2014 | 1,082 | ± 3% | 42% | 46% | — | — | 12% |
| Wenzel Strategies[57] | February 8–11, 2014 | 1,002 | ± 3.06% | 43% | 42% | — | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[141] | April 1–2, 2014 | 663 | ± 4% | 44% | 45% | — | — | 11% |
| New York Times/Kaiser Family[142] | April 8–15, 2014 | 891 | ± ? | 44% | 43% | — | 3% | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing[59] | April 15–17, 2014 | 1,359 | ± 3% | 43% | 36% | — | 9%[138] | 12% |
| Hickman Analytics[143] | April 24–30, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | — | — | 9% |
| NBC News/Marist[60] | April 30 – May 6, 2014 | 2,353 | ± 2% | 46% | 45% | — | 1% | 8% |
| Bluegrass Poll[62] | May 14–16, 2014 | 1,782 | ± 2.1% | 42% | 43% | 4% | 4%[138] | 7% |
| Wenzel Strategies[144] | May 23–24, 2014 | 608 | ± 3.95% | 47% | 44% | — | — | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[145] | May 28–29, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 48% | 41% | — | 5% | 7% |
| Magellan Strategies[146] | June 4–5, 2014 | 808 | ± 3.45% | 46% | 49% | — | — | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[147] | June 20–22, 2014 | 682 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 48% | — | — | 6% |
| Gravis Marketing[148] | July 17–20, 2014 | 1,054 | ± 3% | 45% | 45% | — | — | 10% |
| SurveyUSA[149] | July 18–23, 2014 | 604 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 39% | 7% | — | 13% |
| 47% | 45% | — | — | 8% | ||||
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[150] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,546 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 45% | — | 2% | 4% |
| Wenzel Strategies[151] | August 6, 2014 | ? | ± ? | 47% | 44% | 4% | — | 5% |
| 48% | 44% | — | — | 8% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling[152] | August 7–10, 2014 | 991 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 40% | 7% | — | 9% |
| 47% | 42% | — | — | 11% | ||||
| Bluegrass Poll[153] | August 25–27, 2014 | 569 | ± 4.2% | 46% | 42% | 5% | — | 8% |
| CNN/ORC[154] | August 28 – September 1, 2014 | 671 | ± 4% | 50% | 46% | — | 1% | 3% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[155] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 2,130 | ± 3% | 47% | 42% | — | 2% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[145] | September 1–2, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 46% | 41% | — | 7% | 6% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[156] | September 1–3, 2014 | 600 LV | ± 4% | 47% | 42% | 4% | — | 7% |
| NBC News/Marist[157] | September 2–4, 2014 | 691 LV | ± 3.7% | 47% | 39% | 8% | <1% | 6% |
| 1,184 RV | ± 2.8% | 45% | 38% | 9% | <1% | 8% | ||
| Magellan Strategies[158] | September 4–7, 2014 | 742 LV | ± 3.6% | 50% | 42% | 6% | — | 2% |
| Mellman Group*[159] | September 4–7, 2014 | 800 LV | ± 3.5% | 42% | 43% | — | — | 15% |
| Ipsos[160] | September 8–12, 2014 | 944 LV | ± 3.6% | 46% | 42% | — | 5% | 6% |
| 1,755 RV | ± 2.7% | 36% | 38% | — | 9% | 17% | ||
| ccAdvertising[161] | September 9–16, 2014 | 2,282 | ± ? | 42% | 33% | — | — | 25% |
| Gravis Marketing[162] | September 13–16, 2014 | 839 | ± 3% | 51% | 41% | — | — | 8% |
| Mellman Group*[163] | September 19–27, 2014 | 1,800 | ± 2.3% | 40% | 42% | 3% | — | 16% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[164] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,689 | ± 3% | 47% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 9% |
| Bluegrass Poll[165] | September 29 – October 2, 2014 | 632 | ± 4% | 44% | 46% | 3% | — | 7% |
| Fox News[166] | October 4–7, 2014 | 706 | 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 3% | 3% | 8% |
| Gravis Marketing[167] | October 11–12, 2014 | 1,020 | ± 3% | 50% | 47% | — | — | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[145] | October 15–16, 2014 | 1,000 | ± 3% | 52% | 44% | 2% | — | 2% |
| WKU/Big Red Poll[168] | October 6–19, 2014 | ? LV | ± ?% | 45% | 42% | 5% | — | 8% |
| 601 RV | ± 4% | 45% | 40% | 5% | — | 9% | ||
| SurveyUSA/Bluegrass Poll[169] | October 15–19, 2014 | 655 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 43% | 5% | — | 8% |
| Voter Consumer Research^[170] | October 16–19, 2014 | 815 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | 3% | — | 7% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[164] | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,502 | ± 4% | 45% | 39% | 2% | 0% | 14% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[171] | October 25–27, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 50% | 43% | 4% | 0% | 3% |
| SurveyUSA/Bluegrass Poll[172] | October 26–30, 2014 | 597 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 43% | 3% | — | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[173] | October 26–30, 2014 | 556 LV | ± 4.2% | 50% | 41% | 5% | <1% | 3% |
| 894 RV | ± 3.3% | 49% | 39% | 6% | <1% | 6% | ||
| NBC News/Marist[174] | October 26–30, 2014 | 556 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 41% | 5% | <1% | 3% |
| 894 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 39% | 6% | <1% | 6% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[173] | October 30 – November 1, 2014 | 1,503 | ± 2.5% | 50% | 42% | 3% | — | 5% |
| 53% | 44% | — | — | 4% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Matt Bevin (R) |
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) |
David Patterson (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wenzel Strategies[51] | July 23–24, 2013 | 624 | ± 3.9% | 35% | 30% | — | — | 36% |
| Lake Research Partners[53] | October 24–29, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | 20% | 38% | — | — | 42% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | December 12–15, 2013 | 1,509 | ± 2.5% | 39% | 38% | — | — | 24% |
| Bluegrass Poll[56] | January 30 – February 4, 2014 | 1,082 | ± 3% | 38% | 43% | — | — | 19% |
| Wenzel Strategies[57] | February 8–11, 2014 | 1,002 | ± 3.06% | 36% | 39% | — | — | 25% |
| New York Times/Kaiser Family[142] | April 8–15, 2014 | 891 | ± ? | 35% | 41% | — | 4% | 19% |
| Gravis Marketing[59] | April 15–17, 2014 | 1,359 | ± 3% | 32% | 37% | — | 7% | 25% |
| NBC News/Marist[60] | April 30 – May 6, 2014 | 2,353 | ± 2% | 37% | 46% | — | 1% | 15% |
| Bluegrass Poll[62] | May 14–16, 2014 | 1,782 | ± 2.1% | 38% | 41% | 5% | 4%[138] | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Jerry Abramson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 1,266 | ± 2.8% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Matthew Barzun (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 1,266 | ± 2.8% | 48% | 37% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Ben Chandler (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[64] | April 5–7, 2013 | 1,052 | ± 3% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Jack Conway (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 1,266 | ± 2.8% | 47% | 43% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Adam Edelen (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 1,266 | ± 2.8% | 48% | 36% | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Greg Fischer (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 1,266 | ± 2.8% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Tom FitzGerald (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wenzel Strategies[132] | June 1–2, 2013 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 30% | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Heather French Henry (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wenzel Strategies[132] | June 1–2, 2013 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Ashley Judd (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 1,266 | ± 2.8% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Harper Polling[175] | February 11–12, 2013 | 850 | ±3.36% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Ed Marksberry (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[64] | April 5–7, 2013 | 1,052 | ± 3% | 46% | 35% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
John Yarmuth (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 7–9, 2012 | 1,266 | ± 2.8% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
- ^ Internal poll for McConnell campaign
- * Internal Poll for Grimes campaign
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 806,787 | 56.19% | +3.22% | |
| Democratic | Alison Lundergan Grimes | 584,698 | 40.72% | −6.31% | |
| Libertarian | David M. Patterson | 44,240 | 3.08% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 143 | 0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 1,453,868 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Bourbon (largest city: Paris)
- Carroll (largest city: Carrollton)
- Breathitt (largest city: Jackson)
- Carter (largest city: Grayson)
- Hancock (largest city: Hawesville)
- Magoffin (largest city: Salyersville)
- Powell (largest city: Stanton)
- Trimble (largest city: Bedford)
- Webster (largest city: Providence)
- McLean (largest city: Livermore)
- Morgan (largest city: West Liberty)
- Harrison (largest city: Cynthiana)
- Knott (largest municipality: Hindman)
- Pike (largest municipality: Pikeville)
- Henderson (largest city: Henderson)
- Letcher (largest city: Jenkins)
- Muhlenberg (largest city: Central City)
- Floyd (largest municipality: Prestonburg)
- Greenup (largest city: Flatwoods)
- Fulton (largest city: Fulton)
- Fleming (largest city: Flemingsburg)
- Lincoln (largest city: Stanford)
By congressional district
McConnell won five of six congressional districts.[177]
| District | McConnell | Grimes | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 61.73% | 35.14% | Ed Whitfield |
| 2nd | 58.83% | 37.83% | Brett Guthrie |
| 3rd | 41.11% | 56.94% | John Yarmuth |
| 4th | 61.08% | 35.6% | Thomas Massie |
| 5th | 65.24% | 31.42% | Hal Rogers |
| 6th | 50.55% | 46.0% | Andy Barr |
