2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
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The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term.[1]
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November 2, 2010
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Lynch: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Stephen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove).[2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove).[3]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- John Lynch, incumbent Governor[4]
- Timothy Robertson, state representative
- Frank Sullivan
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Lynch (incumbent) | 49,832 | 87.5 | |
| Democratic | Timothy Robertson | 3,771 | 6.6 | |
| Democratic | Frank Sullivan | 3,377 | 5.9 | |
| Total votes | 56,980 | 97.3 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Frank Robert Emiro Sr., state representative
- Jack Kimball, businessman[6]
- John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner[7]
- Karen Testerman, conservative activist[6]
Declined
- Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire Attorney General[8]
- Frank Guinta, Mayor of Manchester[9]
- Chuck Morse, former State Senator[10]
- John E. Sununu, former U.S. Senator
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Jack Kimball |
John Stephen |
Karen Testerman |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | September 11–12, 2010 | 24% | 45% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | July 23–25, 2010 | 15% | 26% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[13] | April 17–18, 2010 | 10% | 29% | 15% |
Results
Stephen–60–70%
Stephen–50–60%
Stephen–40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Stephen | 77,962 | 61.6 | |
| Republican | Jack Kimball | 31,581 | 24.9 | |
| Republican | Karen Testerman | 12,708 | 10.0 | |
| Republican | Frank Emiro | 4,394 | 3.5 | |
| Total votes | 126,645 | 96.7 | ||
General election
Candidates
- John Babiarz, Libertarian
- John Lynch, Democratic
- John Stephen, Republican
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[14] | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[15] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[16] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[18] | Likely D | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
John Lynch (D) |
John Stephen (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[19] | October 27, 2010 | 51% | 45% |
| WMUR/UNH[20] | October 7–12, 2010 | 51% | 38% |
| American Research Group[21] | October 3–5, 2010 | 51% | 41% |
| Granite State Poll[22] | October 1, 2010 | 51% | 34% |
| American Research Group[21] | September 22–26, 2010 | 42% | 40% |
| Rasmussen Reports[23] | September 15, 2010 | 48% | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling[24] | September 11–12, 2010 | 51% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports[25] | August 5, 2010 | 50% | 39% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | July 23–25, 2010 | 51% | 34% |
| Rasmussen Reports[27] | May 26, 2010 | 47% | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling[28] | April 17–18, 2010 | 47% | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | April 7, 2010 | 47% | 37% |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | March 8, 2010 | 50% | 35% |
| Granite State Poll[31] | January 27-February 3, 2010 | 50% | 30% |
Hypothetical polling
With Kimball
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | John Lynch (D) |
Jack Kimball (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | July 23–25, 2010 | 52% | 29% |
| Rasmussen Reports[27] | May 26, 2010 | 50% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling[28] | April 17–18, 2010 | 47% | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | April 7, 2010 | 50% | 34% |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | March 8, 2010 | 51% | 32% |
| Research 2000[32] | February 1–3, 2010 | 59% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | January 12, 2010 | 51% | 32% |
| Rasmussen Reports[34] | September 14, 2009 | 52% | 31% |
With Morse
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | John Lynch (D) |
Chuck Morse (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[34] | September 14, 2009 | 51% | 29% |
With Sununu
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | John Lynch (D) |
John Sununu (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granite State Poll[35] | September 25-October 2, 2009 | 50% | 37% |
| Rasmussen Reports[34] | September 14, 2009 | 48% | 43% |
With Testerman
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | John Lynch (D) |
Karen Testerman (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | July 23–25, 2010 | 52% | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports[27] | May 26, 2010 | 51% | 32% |
| Public Policy Polling[28] | April 17–18, 2010 | 47% | 29% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | April 7, 2010 | 50% | 33% |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | March 8, 2010 | 54% | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | January 12, 2010 | 53% | 30% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Lynch (incumbent) | 240,346 | 52.63% | −17.57% | |
| Republican | John Stephen | 205,616 | 45.03% | +17.43% | |
| Libertarian | John Babiarz | 10,089 | 2.21% | +0.02% | |
| Write-in | 537 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 456,588 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| 2014 Senate election results in New Hampshire (by county) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | John Lynch Democratic |
John Stephen Republican |
Other votes | ||||
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Belknap | 11,021 | 48.7% | 11,008 | 48.7% | 580 | 2.6% | |
| Carroll | 10,003 | 49.2% | 9,895 | 48.7% | 413 | 2.1% | |
| Cheshire | 15,429 | 59.0% | 10,082 | 38.6% | 624 | 2.4% | |
| Coös | 5,699 | 53.8% | 4,590 | 43.3% | 306 | 2.9% | |
| Grafton | 18,618 | 59.3% | 11,898 | 37.9% | 894 | 2.8% | |
| Hillsborough | 65,183 | 49.9% | 62,704 | 48.0% | 2,704 | 2.1% | |
| Merrimack | 31,929 | 58.0% | 21,548 | 39.2% | 1,550 | 2.8% | |
| Rockingham | 51,714 | 48.4% | 53,049 | 49.6% | 2,193 | 2.0% | |
| Strafford | 22,807 | 59.4% | 14,639 | 38.1% | 979 | 2.5% | |
| Sullivan | 7,943 | 54.7% | 6,203 | 42.7% | 383 | 2.7% | |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)