2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, U.S. House elections, and various state and local elections.
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November 6, 2012
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Hassan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Lamontagne: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Four-term incumbent governor John Lynch was eligible to seek a fifth term. In the fall of 2011, Lynch announced that he would retire rather than run for re-election.[1] On September 11, 2012, Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide Lamontagne defeated primary opponents to win their parties' nominations.[2][3] Hassan won the election while carrying every county in the state and began the two-year term on January 3, 2013.[4]
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Jackie Cilley, former state Senator[5]
- Maggie Hassan, former majority leader of the New Hampshire Senate[6]
- Bill Kennedy, firefighter and retired Air Force officer[7][8]
Declined
- Mark Connolly, former director of the New Hampshire's Bureau of Securities Regulation[9]
- Tom Ferrini, mayor of Portsmouth[1]
- Gary Hirshberg, chairman and former CEO of Stonyfield Farm[10]
- John Lynch, incumbent governor[1]
- Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth[11]
- Phil McLaughlin, former state Attorney General[12]
- Terry Shumaker, lawyer and former United States Ambassador to Trinidad and Tobago[13]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jackie Cilley |
Maggie Hassan |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[14] | August 9–12, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 24% | 30% | — | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling[15] | May 10–13, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.5% | 20% | 23% | — | 57% |
Results
Hassan—60–70%
Hassan—50–60%
Hassan—40–50%
Cilley—50–60%
Cilley—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maggie Hassan | 45,120 | 53.1 | |
| Democratic | Jackie Cilley | 33,066 | 38.9 | |
| Democratic | Bill Kennedy | 5,936 | 7.0 | |
| Democratic | Other | 850 | 1.0 | |
| Total votes | 84,972 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Ovide M. Lamontagne, attorney, 1992 congressional candidate, nominee for governor in 1996 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[17]
- Kevin H. Smith, conservative activist and former state Representative[18]
- Robert Tarr[19]
Declined
- Bill Binnie, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[20]
- Jeb Bradley, New Hampshire Senate Majority Leader and former U.S. Representative[21]
- Peter Bragdon, state Senate President[22]
- Ted Gatsas, Mayor of Manchester[23]
- Steve Kenda, businessman[24]
- John Lyons, chairman of the New Hampshire Board of Education[25]
- John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner and Republican nominee for governor in 2010[26]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ovide Lamontagne |
Kevin Smith |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[14] | August 9–12, 2012 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 21% | — | 30% |
| Public Policy Polling[15] | May 10–13, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 13% | — | 34% |
| Public Policy Polling[27] | January 7–8, 2012 | 1,771 | ± 2.3% | 40% | 12% | — | 48% |
Results
Lamontagne—80–90%
Lamontagne—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ovide Lamontagne | 73,437 | 67.7 | |
| Republican | Kevin Smith | 32,396 | 29.8 | |
| Republican | Robert Tarr | 1,725 | 1.6 | |
| Republican | Other | 988 | 0.9 | |
| Total votes | 108,546 | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
- John Babiarz (Libertarian), businessman and party nominee for governor in 2000, 2002, and 2010[29]
- Maggie Hassan (D), former majority leader of the New Hampshire Senate
- Ovide Lamontagne (R), attorney, Republican nominee for governor in 1996, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
Debates
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 14, 2012
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 8, 2012
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] | Lean D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[32] | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[33] | Lean D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[34] | November 4, 2012 | 750 | ± 4% | 50% | 45% | 1% | 4% |
| New England College[35] | November 3–4, 2012 | 666 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 45% | 1% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[36] | November 3–4, 2012 | 1,550 | ± 2.5% | 51% | 47% | — | 2% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[37] | November 1–4, 2012 | 789 | ± 3.5% | 54% | 43% | 3% | — |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[38] | October 31–November 2, 2012 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 42% | 3% | 8% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[39] | October 28–29, 2012 | 1013 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 44% | 1% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[40] | October 26–28, 2012 | 874 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | — | 8% |
| New England College[41] | October 23–25, 2012 | 571 | ± 4.1% | 45% | 45% | 1% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[42] | October 23, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 48% | 1% | 5% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[43] | October 17–21, 2012 | 773 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 35% | 3% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[44] | October 17–19, 2012 | 1,036 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[45] | October 15, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 48% | — | 5% |
| Suffolk University/7NEWS[46] | October 12–14, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 38% | 4% | 16% |
| American Research Group[47] | October 9–11, 2012 | 600 | ± 4% | 40% | 46% | 3% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[48] | October 9, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 46% | — | 5% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[49] | October 1–6, 2012 | 419 | ± 4.8% | 35% | 39% | 3% | 23% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[50] | September 27–30, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 38% | 36% | 2% | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | September 24–25, 2012 | 862 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 44% | — | 5% |
| NBC/The Wall Street Journal/Marist College[52] | September 23–25, 2012 | 1012 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | 1% | 7% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[53] | September 15–19, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[54] | September 18, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 48% | 2% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[15] | August 9–12, 2012 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 31% | 33% | 1% | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports[56] | June 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 42% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[15] | May 10–13, 2012 | 1,163 | ± 2.9% | 39% | 40% | — | 21% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[57] | April 9–20, 2012 | 486 | ± 4.4% | 34% | 29% | 1% | 36% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[58] | January 25–February 2, 2012 | 495 | ± 4.4% | 26% | 32% | 1% | 41% |
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30–July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 41% | — | 24% |
Hypothetical polling
With Cilley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jackie Cilley (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[15] | August 9–12, 2012 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | — | 16% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 31% | 35% | 1% | 33% |
| Rasmussen Reports[56] | June 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 41% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[15] | May 10–13, 2012 | 1,163 | ± 2.9% | 38% | 38% | — | 24% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[57] | April 9–20, 2012 | 486 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 30% | 1% | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jackie Cilley (D) |
Kevin Smith (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[15] | August 9–12, 2012 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 39% | 38% | — | 23% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 31% | 28% | 1% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports[56] | June 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 37% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling[15] | May 10–13, 2012 | 1,163 | ± 2.9% | 37% | 32% | — | 31% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[57] | April 9–20, 2012 | 486 | ± 4.4% | 30% | 23% | 1% | 47% |
With Smith
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Kevin Smith (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[15] | August 9–12, 2012 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 39% | — | 20% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 31% | 29% | 1% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports[56] | June 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 39% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[15] | May 10–13, 2012 | 1,163 | ± 2.9% | 37% | 31% | — | 32% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[57] | April 9–20, 2012 | 486 | ± 4.4% | 29% | 24% | 1% | 46% |
With Kennedy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Kennedy (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 29% | 35% | 1% | 36% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Kennedy (D) |
Kevin Smith (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 27% | 29% | 1% | 44% |
With Bradley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 30% | 38% | — | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 33% | 39% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Marchand (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 32% | 38% | — | 31% |
With Connolly
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 34% | 40% | — | 26% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly (D) |
John Stephen (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 36% | 36% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly (D) |
John E. Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 36% | 44% | — | 20% |
With Gatsas
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Ted Gatsas (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire[58] | January 25-February 2, 2012 | 495 | ± 4.4% | 27% | 29% | 1% | 43% |
With Lynch
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Lynch (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 54% | 35% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[60] | March 31-April 3, 2011 | 769 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 33% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Lynch (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 54% | 36% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[60] | March 31-April 3, 2011 | 769 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 33% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Lynch (D) |
John Stephen (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 55% | 34% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[60] | March 31-April 3, 2011 | 769 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 29% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Lynch (D) |
John E. Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 51% | 40% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[60] | March 31-April 3, 2011 | 769 | ± 3.5% | 54% | 36% | — | 11% |
With Marchand
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Marchand (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 33% | 40% | — | 27% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Marchand (D) |
John Stephen (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 34% | 36% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Marchand (D) |
John E. Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 44% | — | 21% |
With Stephen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
John Stephen (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 36% | 37% | — | 27% |
With Sununu
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
John E. Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[59] | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 36% | 45% | — | 19% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maggie Hassan | 378,934 | 54.61% | +1.98% | |
| Republican | Ovide Lamontagne | 295,026 | 42.52% | −2.51% | |
| Libertarian | John J. Babiarz | 19,251 | 2.77% | +0.56% | |
| Write-in | 666 | 0.10% | -0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 693,877 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic
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By congressional district
Hassan won both congressional districts.[62]
| District | Hassan | Lamontagne | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 52.98% | 44.43% | Carol Shea-Porter |
| 2nd | 56.38% | 40.66% | Annie Kuster |